Carbonproducers'tarpit:dinosaursbewareThepathtoholdingfossilfuelproducersaccountabilityforclimatechange&climatedamages

RichardHeedeClimateAccountabilityInstitute

INET,Edinburgh23October2017

heede@climateaccountability.org

UNFrameworkConvention1992• Developednations“in…theircommonbutdifferentiatedresponsibilities…should

taketheleadincombatingclimatechangeandtheadverseeffectsthereof.”• Focusisonnation-states,leadbyAnnex1nationsbasedontheirresponsibilityfor

historicemissionsthatdriveclimatechange.

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Tenlargestnations’cumulativefossilfuel& cementCO2emissions1750-2015

ImagecourtesyofCarbonVisuals,UK,carbonvisuals.com 3

Attribute ashareofresponsibilitytocarbonproducers?

Attributeashareofresponsibilitytocarbonproducers?

Historicemissionsarethechiefdriversofclimatechange;Companies have:• producedthelion’sshareof

thecarbonfuelsthatcauseclimatechange

• misleadconsumers,investors,andlegislatorsonclimaterisk

• thetechnicalskills,capital,andmoralresponsibilitytoreducenetcarbonproductioninlinewithscience-basedtargetof2°C– orless

CAIprovides thescientific basisforaccountability,andforleveraging effective action byfossil fuel producers

CarbonMajors:theprocess

• Entitythresholdof≥8MtC inrecentyear:90CarbonMajorEntities:– 50investor-ownedcompanies(IOCs)– 31state-ownedentities(SOEs)– 9nation-statessuchasFSU,China,Kazakhstan,Poland,andNorthKorea– 36coalproducers,54petroleum,55naturalgas,7cement.

• Earliestproductionrecordsavailable,from~1900formajorinvestor-ownedcompanies,1970sformoststate-ownedentities

• Gatherentitydataonoil,naturalgas,coal,andcementproduction– Annualreports,companyhistories,SECfilings,entitywebsites– OilGasJournal,EIAdata,NationalMiningAssociation,WorldOil,etc.

• Enterproductiondatainmillionbbloil,Bcf naturalgas,tonnes coal• Accountformergersandacquisitions(emissionstoextantentity)• Deductnon-energyusesofproducedcarbonproducts(~8%foroil)• Applyrobustandpeer-reviewedemissionfactors

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Peabody1945-2016

Chevron1912-2016

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Two-thirdsofCO2 emissionssince1751tracedtoninetyfossilfuelandcementproducers

Top20companies,percentofglobal,1751-2016

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HalfofallhistoricCO2 since1988

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Whatthefossilfuelindustryknew,andwhen

• Earlywarningsin1965:PresidentJohnsonalertsCongress;• 1970s:earlyoil&gascompanystudiesonclimatechange• 1979:USNationalResearchCouncilreport• 1970s-1980s:Exxoninternalresearch,reporttomanagement

(InsideClimate News, LosAngelesTimes,&MerchantsofDoubt)

• 1988:IPCCestablished• 1990:firstassessmentreport• 1995:secondassessmentreport:“adiscerniblehuman

influenceonglobalclimate”

Top20companies,percentofglobal,1988-2015

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Pathwaytoaccountability

Phase1- 2:Heede(2014)TracinganthropogenicCO2 andmethaneemissionstofossilfuelandcementproducers1854-2010,ClimaticChange;Phase3- 5:Ekwurzel etal.(2017)TheriseinglobalatmosphericCO2,surfacetemperature,andsealevelfromemissionstracedtomajorcarbonproducers,ClimaticChange.

Sealevelriseattributedtocompanyemissions,1980-2010(1%=1.77mm)

Ekwurzel etal.(2017)TheriseinglobalatmosphericCO2,surfacetemperature,andsealevelfromemissionstracedtomajorcarbonproducers,ClimaticChange.

Impacts:sealevelrise&landloss,1980-2010

Emissions SLR LandLossGtCO2 mm km2

SaudiAramco: 36.6 1.43 602Gazprom: 27.2 1.14 482ExxonMobil: 18.7 0.92 386BP: 16.2 0.80 335Chevron: 16.0 0.88 370RoyalDutchShell: 13.4 0.61 256PeabodyCoal: 9.0 0.30 128

Sources:Emissions:ClimateAccountabilityInstitute

SLR:Ekwurzel etal.(2017)LandLoss:CIESIN/Columbiadata,calculationsbyR.Heede

Doesitlooklikesuccess?

Investigations,litigation,andharassment

• Peruvianfarmerv.RWE(Germanligniteproducer:0.47%ofglobalCO2)• NewYork&MassAGinvestigationofExxonMobilforconsumerandinvestorfraud• PhilippinesCommissiononHumanRightsinvestigationof40“CarbonMajors”• MarinCounty,SanMateoCounty,ImperialBeachcomplaintagainst20majorcarbon

producersre:sealevelriseadaptationcosts• CityofSanFranciscoandCityofOaklandsuitagainst5majoroilandgascompanies

(Shell,BP,Chevron,ExxonMobil,ConocoPhillips)re:SLR• USHouseCommitteeonScience,Space,&Technologyinvestigateandsubpoena

ClimateAccountabilityInstitute&colleagues&funders• LamarSmith,SSTChairman,allegesourcoordinatedattemptto“deprivecompanies,

non-profitorganizations,andscientistsoftheirFirstAmendmentrightsandabilitytofundandconductscientificresearchfreeintimidationandthreatsofprosecution.”Mr Smithdemandsourrecords;wedonotcomply

• ExxonMobillawyersfollowwithsubpoenaofCAIandotherNGOs;casependinginSouthernDistrictofNewYork

Testimonials

“LiketheCarbonMajorsanalysisthatitbuildson,thisreportdemonstratesthegrowingprecisionwithwhichmajorcarbonproducers’responsibilityforclimatechangeandclimateimpactscanbequantified,allocatedand,ultimately,litigated”

— CarrollMuffett,CenterforInternationalEnvironmentalLaw

“Investor-ownedcompanieshavelongunderstoodtheharmoftheirproducts,yetcarriedoutadecades-longcampaigntosowdoubtsaboutthoseharmsinordertoensurefossilfuelswouldremaincentraltoglobalenergyproduction.Companiesknowinglyviolatedthemostbasicmoralprincipleof‘donoharm,’andnowtheymustremedytheharmtheycaused.”

— HenryShue,OxfordUniversity,Politics&InternationalRelations

Inclosing

“Fossil-fuelcompaniesshouldbeheldaccountablefortheeffectsofclimatechange.Legalwarfarehasatwo-foldaim:tooverhaultransgressors’businessmodelssothattheyareinlinewiththeglobalcommitmenttophaseoutfossilfuelsandlimittemperaturerisesto1.5°C;andtogetthemtopayfordamagesresultingfromglobalwarming.Climatelitigationistheinevitableresultofafailureoftwodecadesoftalks.Butitisalsoanimportantwayofreframingtheclimatecrisisasahumanrightsemergency.”

— TheGuardian EditorialBoard,10Sep2017

Ekwurzel,B.,J.Boneham,M.W.Dalton,R.Heede,R.J.Mera,M.R.Allen,&P.C.Frumhoff (2017)TheriseinglobalatmosphericCO2,surfacetemperature,andsealevelfromemissionstracedtomajorcarbonproducers,ClimaticChange,vol.144:579-590

Heede,Richard,&NaomiOreskes (2016):PotentialemissionsofCO2 andmethanefromprovenreservesoffossilfuels,GlobalEnvironmentalChange,vol.36:12-20.

Frumhoff,P.,R.Heede,&N.Oreskes (2015)Theclimateresponsibilitiesofindustrialcarbonproducers,ClimaticChange,vol.132:157-171.

Heede,Richard(2014)TracinganthropogenicCO2 andmethaneemissionstofossilfuelandcementproducers1854-2010,ClimaticChange,vol.122(1):229-241.

Starr,Douglas(2016)Thecarbonaccountant:RichardHeedepinsmuchoftheresponsibilityforclimatechangeonjust90companies,othersthinkthat'sacopout,Science,vol.353:858-861.

RickHeede,Director,ClimateAccountabilityInstituteclimateaccountability.org;carbonmajors.org;

heede@climateaccountability.orgSnowmass,Colorado+1-970-343-0707

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• Globalemissions1751-2013:1,443GtCO2

• CarbonMajorscumulative:939GtCO2 (65%)• State-ownedoilandgascompaniesgainingoninvestor-owned

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HumanactionshaveincreasedatmosphericCO2 from~280to400ppmWheredidthiscarboncomefrom?

Whoisresponsible?First,whoemittedit?(Thenormativefocusisonemittersandnations)

Congressandindustryresponse:investigation,subpoenas,&harassment

• HouseScienceCommitteelaunchedinvestigationofCAI,UCS,350.org,Greenpeace,RockefellerBrothersFund,climatelawyerMattPawa,andothers

• LamarSmith(R-TX,Chairman)issuedsubpoenaformyemails& materials,followedbyExxonMobilsubpoena

• Allegedconspiracyto“deprivecompanies…oftheirFirstAmendmentrightsandabilityto…conductscientificresearchfreefromintimidationandthreatsofprosecution.”

• I haverefusedtocomplyonthebasisofmyFirstAmendmentrightsoffreespeechandassemblyandthelackofoversightauthority

• AttorneysGeneralofNewYorkandMassachusettsareinvestigatingExxonMobilforinvestorandconsumerfraud

• PhilippineCommissiononHumanRightsareinvestigating40CarbonMajorsforhumanrightsviolations

• What’snext?

Sphereofallwateronearth,r=~700km SphereofatmosphereatStandardTemperature&Pressure