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Carbon Fibre, Composites and AviationAndrew WalkerDirector Northern Aerospace Technology Exploitation Centre
Agenda
• Aerospace – Commercial Demand
• Composites
• Carbon Fibre
Commercial – Demand Forecast
DC3
Aluminium Aeroplane
War Technology
Merlin EnginePressured Cabin – Boeing 307
Constellation
TWA
707, Swept Wing, Jets
Pan-Am
747
A300A380 - ($250m)
787 ($120m)
Composites
Jetliner - 102
Comet
Tu-104
DC-10
1930’s 1940’s 1960’s 1970’s 2004
De-regulation
Timeline
Boeing 707 Golden Anniversary
Activity Index
Flying Wing
Approx. 30% improvement over 50
years
30% efficiency improvement over 5-10
years
Commercial Aircraft
Growth of Air Traffic
Airfreight business sensitive to availability of surplus passenger aircraft
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Wo
rld
an
nu
al
tra
ffic
(11.2% p.a.)
(6.9% p.a.)
(4.5% p.a.)
(5.2% p.a.)
(4.5% p.a.)
Post Sept 11
Security Step
Health Step
Passenger Travel
200210,800 aircraft3 trillion RPK
202220,050 aircraft9 trillion RPK
Fuel Burn50% reduction in fuel consumption per passenger by 2020
20% more efficient engines
30% advanced airframes (CFRP) and aerodynamics
Streamlined ATM?
“Triple the number of passengers flying by 2020”Need to reduce emissions by 65% or better?
20 June 2005 oil hits ~ $60 per barrel in the Far East!
At $60 Barrel Aircraft Operations lost $6.2 billion in 2005
NB: Profit of $6 billion would represent an operating margin of 3%
21 April 2006 oil hits ~ $75 per barrel in New York
Cathay Pacific – 12% wasted fuel
Timeline
A380
Eclipse 500
ARJ 21
Cessna Mustang
Honda Jet
FUTURE AIRCRAFTFUTURE AIRCRAFT
Composites
Avionics
Payloads
Blended Wing
Boeing 787
Airbus A350
Oblique Wing
Activity IndexActivity Index
((air traffic)air traffic)
(value)(value)
(performance(performance))
Airbus A380 – 590T/550 Passengers
PARDOX:
Rising Fuel Costs Increasing Airframe Weight
A380 Fuselage
Carbon composite pressure bulkhead
Boeing 787 Dreamliner
More than 50% composite aircraft
Faustian bargain with Japan, nearly 70% foreign content, wings!
Entry into service 2008 – more than 677 (USD 110 billion)
Single Aisle (sector 15000 aircraft 2005-2024)
100-200 Seats
Boeing Y1 Project (2010-2014)
scaled version of 787?
composite airframe
higher aspect ratio wing design
Airbus A320 successor (2012)
higher bypass engines
extended wingspan
reduced rear stabilisers
New generation centreline engine in 2012?
HAWKER BEECHCRAFT PREMIER 1
First Commercial Aircraft to utilize an all composite fuselage manufactured using Cincinnati System
Adam Aircraft Honda
COMPOSITES
Weight Saving and Aerodynamics
(Payload & Drag)(Payload & Drag)
Percentage of Total Take-off Weight Vim y
Commercial 1920
Vickers Viscount
1956
Modern Single Aisle
1986
Modern Long Range
1979
Concorde Supersonic
1969 Payload 17 14 24 18 9
Fuel 25 23 18 37 48
System s Crew etc.
11 25 18 12 10
Pow er Plant 18 12 11 10 10
Structure 29 26 29 23 23
History shows we need to improve payload/performance by 30% to “ignite” a new Triz curve.
25-28~26~26~30Payload
A400MA380-800F
Freighter
Boeing 737NG Freight
A300-600F
Pressurised to 6,000ft (10,000ft for aluminium aircraft)
Increased humidity (reduced dryness)
Larger passenger windows
Composites allow a wing to be designed with a smaller wing box
Baseline B787-8 wing box aspect ratio of 10. B777-200 has a ratio of 8.7
Composites are particularly suited to very large aircraft
Slimmer wings → reduced wing area → reduced drag
Evolution of Composite Applications in the Aerospace Market
Evolution of composites applications in commercial aircraft.
1970: US Navy F14: horizontal stabiliser was first production aerospace application
2008: Boeing 787: will use 50% composites
Composites (1) utilization in aircraft has grown strongly for the past 30 years
(1) Glare excluded (glare accounts for about 2% of material use in total weight of a commercial aircraft)
MD-11747-400737-300MD-80
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Composite usage in total weight (%)
•Current planes contain 13% of composite materials. Projected to contain •around 35% by the year 2008
70%
80%
Militaryaircraft
7E7
A380
MD-90
777A330/340
A321A300-600
A320
A310757/767
Rafale
F/A 18 CD
Gripen
F/A 18 E/F
F22
Commercialaircraft
V22 Eurofighter
Low Mass Transport Systems
• It is common convention to describe Newton’s 2nd Law
Thus if we reduce the mass of a moving object, we reduce the energy required to move it.
• The passenger to weight ratio of a vehicle or aircraft is a key measure of its energy consumption efficiency.
Force = Mass x Acceleration
Paradox – rising fuel costs and increasing vehicle/airframe weights
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
2000
1998
2002
750
950
1050
1150
1250
1350
850
1450
1550
FordEscort MK2
FordEscort MK3
FordEscort MK4
FordEscort MK5
FordFocus
VWGolf Mk1
VWGolf Mk2
VWGolf Mk3
VWGolf Mk4
2004
CitroenGS
CitroenBX
VWGolf Mk5
CitroenZX
CitroenXsara
ToyotaCorolla
ToyotaCorolla
ToyotaCorolla
ToyotaCorolla
ToyotaCorolla
ToyotaCorolla
AstraMk1
AstraMk2
AstraMk3
AstraMk4
AstraMk5
VauxhallCavalier Mk1 Cavalier
Mk2
CavalierMk3
Vectra1
Vectra2
YEARS
Kg
Source: Jaguar
Vehicle Weight by Generation
Weight per passenger
BOEING 707
1954, 700kg/passenger
AIRBUS A380
2006, 1,100kg/passenger
(Approx. 500k litres of fuel per day)
The turquoise scenario is a medium economic growth, medium energy demand senario with the economy growing at a similar rate to that of today. By 2020 the economy is three and a half times bigger, with an accompanying growth in energy consumption of 17%. (Source: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research)
“The real problem is international aviation”.
“Commercial Aerospace growth is running ahead of technological development”
2020: 25% Pollution due to aviation but 5% GDP
Decarbonising the UK -Energy for a Climate Conscious Future
CARBON FIBRE
Future Demand for an Advanced MaterialFuture Demand for an Advanced Material
Materials Evolution
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Industrial use
Aerospace use
Sporting use
Industrial use
Aerospace use
Sporting use
Ca
rbo
n F
ibers
De
ma
nd
(to
ns / y
ear)
Offshore oil field components
PC chassis
Windmills
Automotive Components
Civil Engineering
Aircraft structural components
CNG tanks
Golf Shafts
Tennis Rackets
Boeing 787
Airbus A380
Boeing 777
40,000
Airbus A350
Marine vessels
Market Growth Rate over 10%
Production Capacity Share of Carbon Fibers(2005)
Toray 37%Global No.1
Market Share
(Toray’s Estimate)
Market Growth of Carbon FiberMarket Growth of Carbon Fiber
PROPRIETARY
25/09/200724
Key Driving Forces -
• Aerospace – strong commercial & Military rebound. A380, A350, Boeing 787
• Boom in many “industrial’ markets & China
• Wind Energy –the “break-through” application in the Industrial market.
• Automotive transitions from ‘Super Cars’– to series production
Trends and Forecasts for Composites in the Aerospace Market
Forecast in composites shipment (2004Forecast in composites shipment (2004--2010)2010)
Source: Opportunities for Composites in the Global Aerospace Market 2004-2010, E-Composites, Inc
10.8%79%24.6913.83Total
1.8%12%0.940.85Space
7.0%44%2.821.95Defence
2.4%18%0.590.50Helicopter
1.4%10%2.232.02General aviation
1.3%8%1.281.19Regional jet
15.6%130%16.827.33Commercial
Compound Annual Growth Rate (%)
Total change 2004-2010 (%)
2010 (Mill kgs)2004 (Mill kgs)Market segments
54%360%26.8
Compound
Annual Growth
Total Charge
2010
(Million kg)
Commercial Aviation Correction
Carbon fibre is linked to oil pricing via the Acrylonitrile raw material value chain. Raw material and energy represent about 2/3 of the
cost to produce carbon fibre, and oil drives 50% of the cost
Crude Oil
Propylene
Acrylonitrile
PAN
Carbon Fiber
PAN Raw Material & Energy
Depreciation,Labour, Maintenance,
consumables & Overheads
Source: SGL Carbon Group
40%60%
The Manufacturing ProcessPAN Type Carbon Fibre
Acrylonitril
Polyacrilonitril Resin
Acrylic Fibre
Oxidized Fibre
Carbon Fibre
High Tensile Strength Fibre High Elastic Modulus Fibre
Spinning
PolymerisationPolymerisation
Oxidation
Carbonisation
GraphitizationSurface Treatment
& SizingSurface Treatment
& Sizing
Source: The Japan Carbon Fibre Manufacturers Association: Manufacturing Processes of Carbon Fibres
LAYOUT OF A TYPICAL CARBON FIBRE PLANT
Key: LT & HT Furnaces: Low Temperature and High Temperature . RTO : Regenerative Thermale Oxidizer
Carbonization ProcessCarbonization ProcessCarbonization ProcessCarbonization Process
Precursor
SizingSurface Treatment
Carbon Fiber
CarbonizingPANPAN--PolymerPolymer
~ 3000°C~300°C ~1200°C
ProductsProductsProductsProducts
Panex® 35
Characteristics • 95% carbon • High strength & stiffness • Electrically conductive • Corrosion resistant
Applications • Structural Reinforcement
• Electrostatic dissipating thermoplastics
• Corrosion resistant piping
Available Formats
• Continuous tows • Milled fiber • Chopped fiber • Heavy weight Fabrics
Location:
Head Office and Plant : Abidos(64)
Sales Office : Paris
Established:
1982
Capital:
24.8 million Euro
Employment
157 as of end of October, 2005
Total Investment
45 million Euro (1983-1985)
70 million Euro (1986-2002)
45 million Euro (2002-2004)
Main Business:
Manufacturing and sales of carbon fiber for aircraft and industrial applications
Societe des Fibres de Carbone S.A.(SOFICAR)
Major Subsidiaries In FranceMajor Subsidiaries In France
25/09/200733
• Purpose : To fulfill the requirement of Carbon Fiber for Aeronautic (mainly Airbus, A380, A350 and others) and Industrial applications (Civil Works, Automotive, Windmills, Ultracentrifugation,…)
• Investment: TEF 3 : 1800t (recently started at end 2004)
TEF 4 : 800t (will July 2007)
• Capacity: Current in 2005 : 2 600 t/y (including TEF 3)
+ 800 t/y (for TEF 4)
• Employees: 190 (2007)
• Planned Sales: 190 Million Euro in 2008
• Customers: Airbus and Subcontractors, European Weavers & Prepregers and some Export to USA and Japan through Toray
SOFICAR Current Expansion Plan SOFICAR Current Expansion Plan
25/09/200734
Estimated Carbon Fibre Demand (Tonnes) 2006-2020
Confirmed Scenario
Forecast Scenario
Aluminium Model
2006
2010
2020
2020
2020
Civil Aviation Existing aircraft (A320, B777 etc) B747 Replacement B777 Replacement A380 A350 B787 New B737 and A32X
3,700 200 - 100 -
5,200 2,000 - 3,000 -
3,400 2,000 2,700 6,000 15,000
2,000 2,600 6,000 2,200 8,500 6,000 15,000
Military Fighters, transport, helicopters
900
1,250
1,800
2,600
Regional Aircraft and Business Jets
230 488 625 1,200
Total
5,130 11,938 31,525 46,100
Wind Energy
3,750 7,500 20,000 60,000
Sports
5,420 6,660 8,330 9,000
Industrial (including gas tanks)
11,660 16,666 25,830 50,000
Other uses (including anti-ballistic & medical)
1,000 1,000 1,000 2,000
Grand total
26,960 43,764 86,685 167,100 320,000
CONCLUSION
The best way to make people conserve energy is to show they can make money doing it (B787).
Historically we have been interested in price and value. Today we are interested in values! (VIRGIN)