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Carbon cycle assessment
Patricia Cadule
Jean-Louis Dufresne
Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Paris.
CCI-CMUG, 27 May 2015
Regional CO2 fluxes
[IPCC AR5]
Inversions[Peylin et al]
Veget.models
CMIP5 Models vs Inversions
(PgC
/yr)
Month
(PgC
/yr)
Month
(PgC
/yr)
Month
(PgC
/yr)
Month
(PgC
/yr)
Month
Regional CO2 fluxes
Grey shading: inversionsColor lines: CMIP5 models
Evaluations of the atmospheric CO2 concentration of the 23 CMIP5 models
Alert (Canada)
ALT
BRW
MHD
SCH
NWR
AZR
KUM
MLO
SMO
AMS
CGO
SPO
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Comparing models with • carbon flux estimates (inversions)• CO2 concentration in a few locations (transport of surface CO2 flux)
Over 11 CO2 stations
Regional CO2 fluxes
Fires produce• Greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4,
N2O, …) that impact the radiation budget
• CO, non-methane hydrocarbons, and NOx altering the oxidation capacity of the atmosphere
• Aerosols (OC, BC) having an impact on the radiation budget
Ward et al., 2012
Project- Added value of CCI variables- Consistencies amongst variables- Focus on fires
Fires and vegetation models
Energy & Hydrology model (SEHIBA)
Climate Variable
Carbon model (STOMATE)
Dynamic Vegetation
SPITFIRE Fire model (climate driven)
ORCHIDEE
CarbonBalance
ClimateModel
Ignition
Climate:Daily Tmax, TminDaily PrecipitationDaily wind speed
External drivers
ORCHIDEE Input and PFT Parameters
(fuel availability)Biomass & Litter
Soil moisture
PFT parameters (fuel bulk density, moisture of extinction, tree architecture, etc.)
SPITFIRENumber of Fire
Fire Danger Index
Fire spread rate
Fire duration
Fuel Consumption Fraction
Surface fire intensity
Emissions
Plant mortality
Burned Area
ORCHIDEE-SPITFIRE modeling framework, coupled with the LMDZ climate model
SPITFIRE (Thonicke et al., 2010)
Project- Added value of CCI variables- Consistencies amongst variables- Focus on fires
Emission(carbon and other gases)
BA(Burned Area)
CF(Combustion
Fraction)
EF(Emission
Factor)
ESA fire_cci
Fuel(biomass,litter etc.)
DGVM
Atmospheric model
Vegetation model
Transport and Inversion models
Observation
Bottom-up approach of emissions estimation (aided by vegetation models)
Consistency fires vs precipitation
Low precipitation: limited by fuel (vegetation) amount
High precipitations: limited by the degree of drought
Mean annual precipitation (mm/yr) (1997-2009)
Mea
n bu
rn a
rea
2006
2007
2008
Annual burned areaESACCI ≈ 2x GFED4, despite many tiles still missing in ESACCI
ESACCI GFED4 ESACCI/GFED
Burned area: ESA fire_cci vs. GFED4
Experiments: Land cover dataLC_CCI
Current land cover map•Outdated land cover inputs
• IGBP land cover (Belward et al. 1999) and,
• Olson vegetation map with 96 classes (1983)
Land coverKöppen-Geigerclimate zones
Phenology & Physiognomy
Plant Functional TypesLa
nd
Co
ver
->
PF
T
Co
nv
ers
ion
To
ol
(BE
AM
)
ESA LC_CCI PFT datasets
• Increase in BoNE
• Increase in Bare Soil• Decrease in BoNS
increase decrease
• Decrease in tundra C3 grass cover
• Increase in BoBS at expense of BoNE
PFT differences – high latitudes
(LC_CCI – Olson)
PFT differences – tropics (LC_CCI – Olson)
GV2M Avignon - February 2014
Increase in C4 crops
Decrease in TrRG
Decrease in TrEV
Carbon budget evaluation
Mauna Loa (Pacific)
Carbon budget evaluation
Barrow (Alaska)
Complementary studies towards assessment of carbon cycle and fires in coupled climate model:
• Identify (in)consistencies amongst related datasets
• Determine the origins of added values of CCI
• Improve knowledge and understanding processes
Study 1Dataset analysis
• Using the following datasets: SST, SI, LC, GHG, FIRE, SM, ALB
• Look for fires (region, spread/extent, duration)• Identify corresponding pre-fire conditions (availability of
fuel, climate conditions, ignition source, …)• Identify corresponding post-fire conditions (climate
conditions, emissions, albedo, land cover)• Objectives
– Propose to the extent possible improvement margins for future datasets (e.g., spatial and temporal resolutions) in case of inconsistencies between fires and pre/post conditions
– Categorize fires for use in Study 2
Thank you for your attention
increase decrease
• Decrease in C3 croplands replaced by C3 grasslands
• Increases in C4 grasslands due to use of Koppen-Geiger climate zones
C3
C4
PFT differences (1) – crops (LC_CCI – Olson)
1 - Bare soil2 – TrBE : tropical broad-leaved evergreen3 – TrBR : tropical broad-leaved raingreen4 – TeNE : temperate needleleaf evergreen5 – TeBE : temperate broad-leaved evergreen6 – TeBS : temperate broad-leaved summergreen7 – BoNE : boreal needleleaf evergreen8 – BoBS : boreal broad-leaved summergreen9 – BoNS : boreal needleleaf summergreen10 – NC3 : C3 grass11 – NC4 : C4 grass12 – AC3 : C3 agriculture13 – AC4 : C4 agriculture