CAPT James Pettigrew Commanding Officer Mike Clancy Technical Director

CAPT James PettigrewCommanding Officer

Mike ClancyTechnical Director

Fleet Numerical Meteorology & Oceanography Center

Command Overview – Presented toCommittee Operational Processing Centers

4 May 2010

Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…


• Introduction• Recent Accomplishments• Modeling Changes in Past Year• Support for NAEFS• HPC Systems• Model Performance Statistics• NAVDAS-AR Obs Impact Metrics• Upcoming Modeling Changes• Upcoming HPC System Changes• Overview and Status of MILCON Project• 50th Anniversary Celebration• Summary

Outline


Introduction


44

Operational Operational Excellence

• The United States Navy is committed to excellence in operational meteorology and oceanography (METOC)

– Fleet Safety

– Decision Superiority

– Information Assurance

• We are stakeholders and partners in National capability – Key part of the Nation’s ocean & weather infrastructure

– Expect to be a major player in NUOPC

• Near-term goals (CNMOC)– Tighter link between forecasts and decisions

– Predictive Oceanography

We are the Navy’s Operational Science Community


5

• We produce and deliver weather, ocean, and climate information for Fleet Safety, Warfighting Effectiveness, and National Defense. – Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) is the core of our business.

• Global and Regional Operational Models

• Assimilate meteorological and oceanographic data worldwide– Scheduled and on-demand products

– Specific to Fleet and Joint operations

– 24x7 Operational Reachback Center

• Supporting National, Navy, DoD/Joint, and Coalition missions

• Direct Support for Global Submarine Weather

• Data fusion for planning and operations

FNMOC Mission


Models• Fleet Numerical operates a highly integrated

and cohesive suite of global, regional and local state-of-the-art weather and ocean models:– Navy Operational Global Atmospheric

Prediction System (NOGAPS)

– Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS)

– Navy Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System (NAVDAS)

– Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS)

– GFDN Tropical Cyclone Model

– WaveWatch 3 (WW3) Ocean Wave Model

– Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) System

– Ensemble Forecast System (EFS)

15 km

0 km

10 km

5 km

60 m s-

1

20 m s-

1

0 m s-1

40 m s-

1

SierraOwensValley

Mountain

Wave

~30 kmObs ~28

km

Cross section of temperature and wind speeds fromCOAMPS showing mountain waves over the Sierras

Surface Pressure and CloudsPredicted by NOGAPS


Satellite Products

• SATFOCUS

• SSMI and SSMI/S

• Scatterometer

• Tropical Cyclone Web Page

• Target Area METOC (TAM)

• Tactically Enhanced Satellite Imagery (TESI) Example SATFOCUS Products

SATFOCUS Dust Enhancement Product SSM/I Water VaporSSM/I Wind Speed


8

NWPNWP(NOGAPS, (NOGAPS, COAMPS)COAMPS)

Aerosol Modeling

EnsembleModels

Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

Optimum TrackShip Routing

Automated High Seas / Wind Warnings

Ballistic Wind Computations

Electro-Optical Forecasts

Aircraft RoutingOcean Acoustic

Forecasting

Long-Range Planning

Ice Forecasts

Target WeaponSystems

Visibility/DustForecasts

WRIP

CEEMS

Search and Rescue

Models and Applications


Recent Accomplishments


Recent Accomplishments

• Implemented 4DVAR atmospheric assimilation system (NAVDAS-AR) in conjunction with increased vertical levels in NOGAPS (T239L42).

• Implemented first global aerosol assimilation system in the world (NAVDAS-AOD) to improve forecasts via NAAPS.

• Upgraded the NOGAPS Ensemble with the Banded Ensemble Transform (ET) initialization to improve spread of initial ensemble.

• Implemented wave height assimilation in our global wave forecast system WW3.


Modeling Changes in the Past Year


Modeling Changes in Past Year

• NAVDAS– Local Area Coverage Winds

• AVHRR, Rathera, Antarctica (May 2009)– NOAA-19 AVHRR Radiances (July 2009)

• NOGAPS T239L42/NAVDAS-AR(Sep 2009)– AIRS, AMSU-A, IASI, ASCAT, SSMI/S

• NAVDAS-AOD (Oct 2009)• EFS

– Banded ET (Feb 2010)• Reduced initial spread in ensemble generation

– Forecast extended to 16 days (Feb 2010)– Extended number of members to 20 (April 2010)

• GFDN 3D POM in West Pacific (Jun 2009)• WW3 Wave Height Assimilation (Sep 2009)• COAMPS

– 60 Areas at 3 classification levels


Support for NAEFS


Success Rate for On-Time Delivery of NOGAPS Ensemble to NCEP for NAEFS/NUOPC

Delivery By (0610z)

Avg Delivery (0559z)

Average Files per Min: 321Reliability: 51.6%

ISIS

BFT5

BFTn

MARCH ENSEMBLE MET 00z

02:00

03:00

04:00

05:00

06:00

07:00

08:00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Date

Tim

e

0

250

500

750

1000

Fil

es p

er M

in


•Average Files per Minute: 298•Reliability: 29%

Avg Delivery (1813z)

Delivery By (1810z)

ISIS

BFT5

BFTn

Success Rate for On-Time Delivery of NOGAPS Ensemble to NCEP for NAEFS/NUOPC

MARCH ENSEMBLE_MET 12z

14:00

15:00

16:00

17:00

18:00

19:00

20:00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Date

Tim

e

0

250

500

750

1000

Fil

es p

er M

in


FNMOC NAEFS Schedule

• April 2010 – FNMOC delivers GRIB2 sample products for evaluation

• May 2010 – FNMOC delivers “packed” ensemble products with 20 members out to TAU 384

• July 2010 – FNMOC delivers ensembles in GRIB2 with 74 variables

• TBD – FNMOC integrates delivery (CAGIPS) hardware upgrades


HPC Systems


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Systems are linked directly to ~332 TB of disk space and ~160 TB of tape archive space.

FNMOC HPC Systems

NAME TYPE CPUs MEMORY (GB)

PEAK (TFLOPS)

Disk (TB)

OS

FS1 SGI ORIGIN 3900 256 256 0.7 30 TRIX

FS2 SGI ORIGIN 3900 256 256 0.7 30 TRIX

ATOS2 IBM 1350s/x440s/x345s 438 645 2.2 40 Linux

CAAPS IBM e1350s 148 272 0.7 10 Linux

A2 OPAL Dell Linux Cluster System 928 1800 10.0 65 Linux

A2 RUBY Dell Linux Cluster System 1168 1170 12.0 56 Linux

A2 TOPAZ Dell Linux Cluster System 280 1200 3.0 16 Linux

A2 EMERALD Dell Linux Cluster System 1224 3672 13.0 65 Linux

A2 ZIRCON Dell Linux Cluster System TBD TBD TBD 20 Linux

TOTAL 4,698 9,271 ~ 42.3 ~ 332

FS = File Server / Cross DomainATOS = Applications, Transactions, and Observations Subsystem CAAPS = Centralized Atmospheric Analysis and Prediction System A2 = Combined AMS / ATOS System

UNCLAS

SECRET

UNCLAS and SECRET

TS/SCI


Items of Interest

• Doubled NIPRNet and SIPRNet bandwidth

• Acquired much larger DATMS trunks providing direct connection to AFWA, NAVO, and NOAA

• Maintained all IA Accreditations

• Became first Navy Command to pass a DISA Command Cyber Readiness Inspection (CCRI)


Model Performance Statistics


Navy Atmospheric Data Assimilation System-Accelerated Representer (NAVDAS-AR)

The Navy’s 4D-VAR data assimilation

NAVDAS-AREffective 28 September

Monthly Averaged NOGAPS SHEM TAU120 500 hPa Height Anomaly Correlation by Year


Mar 2010 Vector 10m Wind RMS


Mar 2010 Vector 850mb Wind RMS


Mar 2010 500 mb Height AC


Comparison of FNMOC Global WW3 Wave Heights with Altimeter Data for March 2010


Verification of FNMOC/NCEP WW3 Multi-model Ensemble Against Altimetry Data


NAVDAS-AOD Validation

r =.83r =.69

NA

AP

S

MODIS MODIS

NAAPS AOD (no assimilation)

NAAPS AOD(w/ assimilation)

1) Convert NAAPS massconcentration to aerosol optical depth

2) Two-D variational assimilation of the optical depth field

3) Convert optical depth to NAAPS three-D mass concentration(ill-posed; simple conditional scaling scheme used)


NAVDAS-AR Obs Impact Metrics


Obs Impact by Instrument


Obs Impact by Instrument


Upcoming Modeling Changes


Current Thinking on Navy Global NWP

• Fully support NUOPC• Continue operational transition of most-promising near-

term NOGAPS upgrades:– 4DVAR (NAVDAS-AR)– Semi-Lagrangian

• Continue exploring the possibility of running operational UKMO/UM based ensemble (NAVO/MSRC)

• Seek partnerships for development of a next-generation global NWP model for operational implementation at FNMOC ~ 2016-2018

• Link to growing Navy interest in: (1) the arctic, (2) climate change, and (3) energy conservation


Specific Plans

• NOGAPS T319L42 (May 2010)• NAEFS

– Expand variables to 73 (Jul 2010)– Receive in GRIB2 format (Jul 2010)– Expand variables to 80 (No schedule yet)

• COAMPS-OS v2.2 with fully coupled COAMPS & NCOM (FY11)– Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM)

• 3D forecasts of temperature, salinity, currents, elevations– NCOM exchange of ocean surface fluxes with the COAMPS

atmospheric boundary layer– Includes COAMPS v5 with Earth System Modeling Framework

(ESMF) • COAMPS areas migrating to 45/15/5 km and 45 levels


NHEM Anomaly Correlations for NOGAPS T239L42 (Red) andT319L42 (Black)

500mb 1000mb


Upcoming HPC System Changes


Upcoming HPC System Changes

• Node Expansion: add 100 additional nodes for various A2 systems.

• Enterprise Storage: Increase by approximately 90 TB.• Archive Tape Library: Acquire for high and low sides to

provide A2 Backup and Heirarchical Storage Management

• VMWare Implementation: Begin using VMWare nodes for ATOS2 and other non-MPI applications on A2

• A2 Infiniband Fabric Upgrade: Potential upgrade to increase speed of Infiniband backbone fabric.

• Field and supporting the next generation of the Naval Oceanography Portal (NEP-O)


Overview and Status of MILCON Project


MILCON Project

• $9.3M 14351 sq ft expansion/renovation of FNMOC Building 700 (Computer Center Building)– Adds 2500 sq ft to Computer Center for NPOESS IDPS– Expands Ops Floor from 1550 to 3200 sq ft– Expands SCIF Ops Floor from 1947 to 3012 sq ft– Expands SCIF Computer Center from 875 to 2240 sq ft– Expands Auditorium from 47 seats to 100 seats

• Schedule– Design/Build Contract awarded Sep 2008– Groundbreaking May 27, 2009– MILCON project proceeding as scheduled. – Exterior walls nearly complete. – Phase I approximately 50% complete. – MILCON completion scheduled for April 13th, 2011.


FNMOC MILCON Project

FNMOC Building 700 Computer Center


We intend to celebrate Fleet Numerical’s 50th Anniversary in

2011. Will culminate with dedication of the MILCON Project

in April of 2011.


Summary

• Several of our recent accomplishments of COPC interest:– Implemented 4DVAR atmospheric assimilation system (NAVDAS-AR) in

conjunction with increased vertical levels in NOGAPS (T239L42).

– Implemented first global aerosol assimilation system in the world (NAVDAS-AOD) to improve forecasts via NAAPS.

– Upgraded the NOGAPS Ensemble with the Banded Ensemble Transform (ET) initialization to improve spread of initial ensemble.

– Implemented the coupled air-sea version of the GFDN tropical cyclone model

– Implemented wave height assimilation in our global wave forecast system WW3.

• We have embraced Linux-based HPC as we continue to build out our A2 cluster to accommodate the full range of our operational workload

• Along with ONR, NRL, CNMOC, and OPNAV N84 we are exploring the way-ahead for Navy Numerical Weather Prediction

• We intend to celebrate Fleet Numerical’s 50th Anniversary in 2011


Questions?

Documents

CAPT James Pettigrew Commanding Officer Mike Clancy Technical Director