Upload
ian-newbold
View
214
Download
1
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG
Improvement of Improvement of the Dairy and Beef the Dairy and Beef
sub-module sub-module
Elasticity Next steps
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
Livestock supply flows for EU countries and regions (90-99): improvement of the information system for all the animals activities, inclusion of COMEXT database.
Livestock net domestic production
Split up yields in low and high (MEAT, MILK)
Definition of supply elasticities for livestock
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
MODELISATION
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
NEW CRONOS REGIO COMEXT EXPERT DATA
COMEXT.GMSCORRECT NEW CRONOS
MATCH COMEXT-NEW CRONOS
FLOW_ANIM.GMS
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
MODELISATION
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
COWS
BULF
HEIF
HEIR
CAMR
CAFR
CAMF
CAFF
COWS
t t+1 t+2
COWS
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
MODELISATION
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
t t+1 t+2
COWS COWS
BULF
HEIF
HEIR
CAMR
CAFR
CAMF
CAFF
•LEVL = Herd Size t-1
•Replacement and Discarded RATES
•Male and Female Calves Production (REGIO Herd Size)
•Same coefficients for DCOW and SCOW
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
MODELISATION
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
t t+1 t+2
COWS COWS
BULF
HEIF
HEIR
CAMR
CAFR
CAMF
CAFF
•GROF,CALFt = SLGHt + EXPLt – IMPLt + STCFt (If > 0)
•GROFt = GROF,CALFt x COWS,FCALt
•LEVLt = GROF,CALFt x COWS,FCALt + STCF t (If > 0)
•NUSEt = GROFt – LEVLt - STCF t (If < 0)
•Use NUSE to redefine LEVL and GROF (for RCAL too)
•Estimation of NETF
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
MODELISATION
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
t t+1 t+2
COWS COWS
BULF
HEIF
HEIR
CAMR
CAFR
CAMF
CAFF
•GROF,CALFt = SLGHt + EXPLt – IMPLt + STCFt (If > 0)
•GROFt = GROF,CALFt x COWS,MCALt
•LEVLt = GROF,CALFt x COWS,MCALt + STCFt (If > 0)
•NUSEt = GROFt – LEVLt - STCF t (If < 0)
•Use NUSE to redefine LEVL and GROF (for RCAL too)
•Estimation of NETF
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
MODELISATION
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
MODELISATIONIntroduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
t t+1 t+2
COWS COWS
BULF
HEIF
HEIR
CAMR
CAFR
CAMF
CAFF
•GROF,RCALt = YBULt + YHEIt + EXPLt – IMPLt + STCFt (If >0)
•GROFt = GROF,RCALt x COWS,FCALt
•LEVLt = GROF,YHEIt+1 + STCFt (If > 0)
•NUSEt = GROFt – LEVLt - STCF t (If < 0)
•Redefine GROF
•Estimation of NETF
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
t t+1 t+2
COWS COWS
BULF
HEIF
HEIR
CAMR
CAFR
CAMF
CAFF
•GROF,RCALt = YBULt + YHEIt + EXPLt – IMPLt + STCFt (If >0)
•GROFt = GROF,RCALt x COWS,MCALt
•LEVLt = GROF,YBULt+1 + STCFt (If > 0)
•NUSEt = GROFt – LEVLt - STCF t (If < 0)
•Redefine GROF
•Estimation of NETF
MODELISATION
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
t t+1 t+2
COWS COWS
BULF
HEIF
HEIR
CAMR
CAFR
CAMF
CAFF
•LEVLt = YCOWt+1 + STCFt (If > 0)
•GROFt = LEVLt + EXPLt – IMPLt + STCFt (If <0)
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
MODELISATION
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
t t+1 t+2
COWS COWS
BULF
HEIF
HEIR
CAMR
CAFR
CAMF
CAFF
•LEVLt = SLGHt + EXPLt – IMPLt
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
MODELISATION
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
t t+1 t+2
COWS COWS
BULF
HEIF
HEIR
CAMR
CAFR
CAMF
CAFF
•LEVLt = SLGHt + EXPLt – IMPLt
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
MODELISATION
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
MODELISATION
FATTENING PROCESSES: beef, heifers, sheep & pigs
HERD DIMENSION
SLGH
MEAT
LEVL = SLGH - IMPL + EXPL
LEVW = (SLGH - IMPL) + IMPL * α + EXPL * β
GROF = SLGT - IMPT + EXPT
Young animals
MODEL
O coefficient (meat yield), I coefficient (feed, …),
nutrients & GHGs output
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
LEVL SLGH IMPL EXPL= - +
LEVW =
SLGH
-
IMPL
+
IMPL x
(FINW -IMWT)
/ (FINW - INIW)
+
EXPL x
(EXWT -INIW)
/ (FINW -INIW)
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
MODELISATION
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
MODELISATION
HEAD WEIGHT EXPL EXWT IMPL IMWT HEAD WEIGHTAT000 335,6 668,4 10,8 92,9 - - 317,0 707,5BL000 347,2 789,9 61,1 392,8 51,1 346,3 343,8 797,7DE000 2319,1 649,7 262,9 603,9 8,0 421,6 2286,6 658,9EL000 161,2 437,4 26,8 - 33,9 329,8 82,5 854,8ES000 957,0 492,2 1,1 496,0 24,3 239,2 996,1 472,8FI000 194,6 502,3 - 463,0 - - 194,6 502,3FR000 2050,2 644,9 608,8 399,5 23,4 449,9 1582,7 835,4IR000 941,5 666,2 253,4 620,0 3,1 17,8 912,2 687,6IT000 1781,6 614,6 18,0 605,3 411,3 451,3 2021,3 541,8NL000 300,5 764,2 6,8 614,6 95,9 517,7 353,2 650,2PT000 212,4 566,0 1,0 38,6 9,0 549,0 210,8 570,1SE000 242,8 554,7 0,1 128,2 - - 242,6 555,2UK000 1565,0 599,0 18,7 661,8 12,4 642,2 1567,5 598,1
LEVL.BULFMS
TRADE BULF LEVW.BULF
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
Estimation of activity level and yields (light and heavy final weights) for adult cattle
Light and heavy final weights depend on genetics and production system
Scarce information and similar probabilities
Engineering and production system information: final weights (min-max), stock density, daily growth, and herd composition
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
STOCK DENSITY
DAILY GROWTH
HERD COMPOSITION
Max - ∑i pi ln (pi / qi)
where:i: number of support pointsp: posterior probabilitiesq: a priori probabilitiessum of pi and sum of qi equal to one
A Priori ProbabilitiesSupport Points
FINAL WEIGHTS
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
Max H(p) = - ∑i ∑n pi,n ln (pi,n / qi,n)p
s.t.∑n SLGHn,m E[MEATn] = SLGTm
E[MEATn] = ∑i SMEATi,n pi,n
∑n SLGHn,m = SLGHm
∑n IMPLn,m = IMPLm
∑n EXPLn,m = EXPLm
SLGHn = GROF.HEADn + PIMLn – PEXLn + ADJnwhere:n: number of adult cattle sub-categories (light and heavy final weight)m: number of adult cattle categories (beef and heifers)MEAT: estimated parameter (final carcass weight)SMEAT: possible outcomes (support points)ADJ: shift factor between adult cattle sub-categoriessum of pi and sum of qi equal to one
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
COWS
BEFL
HEIH
HEIR
CAMR
CAFR
CAMF
CAFF
COWS
t t+1 t+2
COWS
BEFH
HEIL
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS
RESULTS FOR BEFH AND BEFL
LEVL BEEF IMPL EXPL LEVL BEEF IMPL EXPL LEVL BEEF IMPL EXPLAT000 324,9 371,2 0,0 10,8 285,2 390,3 0,0 0,0 39,6 234,1 0,0 10,8BL000 337,3 429,0 51,1 61,1 333,9 430,9 51,1 0,0 3,4 242,0 0,0 61,1DE000 2064,2 353,5 8,0 262,9 1642,1 384,4 7,9 262,9 422,0 231,7 0,0 0,0EL000 168,3 262,0 33,9 26,8 54,9 350,6 16,5 13,3 113,4 219,2 17,4 13,4ES000 980,2 262,4 24,3 1,1 321,6 350,7 0,0 1,1 658,6 219,3 24,3 0,0FI000 194,6 271,2 0,0 0,0 74,0 353,9 0,0 0,0 120,5 220,5 0,0 0,0FR000 1464,8 401,7 23,4 608,8 1337,6 416,7 23,4 276,4 127,2 244,0 0,0 332,4IR000 691,2 367,3 3,1 253,4 684,3 368,8 3,1 253,4 6,9 221,4 0,0 0,0IT000 2174,9 315,3 411,3 18,0 1640,9 346,7 390,2 18,0 533,9 217,9 21,0 0,0NL000 389,6 381,3 95,9 6,8 358,5 393,9 95,9 6,8 31,0 235,5 0,0 0,0PT000 220,5 306,5 9,0 1,0 126,6 366,7 9,0 1,0 93,9 225,3 0,0 0,0SE000 242,7 299,7 0,00 0,13 130,6 364,2 0,0 0,0 112,1 224,3 0,0 0,1UK000 1558,7 323,2 12,4 18,7 805,1 402,4 12,4 18,7 753,6 238,6 0,0 0,0
MSBULF BEFH BEFL
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
BEFL
HEIH
CAMR-L
CAFR-L
CAMF
CAFF
COWS
t t+1 t+2
COWS
BEFH
HEIL
CAFR-H
CAMR-H
COWSHEIR
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
Split up male and female calves for rearing into light and heavy weight ones:CAFF, CAMF, CAFR-L, CAFR-H, CAMR-L, CAMR-H, CAFR.
A four stages system to assign calves to cows:
DCOW-HIGH-YIELD: CAFF, CAMF, CAFR-L, CAMR-L, CAFR
DCOW-LOW-YIELD: CAFF, CAMF, CAFR-H, CAMR-H, CAFR
SCOW: CAFF, CAMF, CAFR-H, CAMR-H, CAFR
The gross male-female calves production, and the cows replacement rate are respected.
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
BEFL
HEIH
CAMR-L
CAFR-L
CAMF
CAFF
COWS
t t+1 t+2
DCOW-LDCOW-H
SCOW
BEFH
HEIL
CAFR-H
CAMR-H
COWSHEIR
Use the detailed calves production and the number of calves per cow
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
DCOL.MILK = DCOW.MILK x 0.6DCOH.MILK = (GROF.MILK - DCOL.MILK * DCOL.LEVL) / DCOH.LEVL
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS
HEAD COMI HEAD COMI HEAD COMIDE000 5274 5384,3 2578,5 7635,7 2695,5 3230,6
IT000 2168 4945,8 935,7 7551,3 1232,3 2967,5
UK000 3249 5612,6 1542,9 8108,0 1706,1 3373,0
MSDCOW DCOH DCOL
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
Use MS reproductive coefficients
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
FROM MS TO REGIONS
Estimate the regional trade: heads and weights
Estimate the regional LEVL according to production system:
FPMS,i : BREDMS,i = FPRU,i : BREDRU,i
where:MS = member stateRU = regioni = livestock fattening activityFP = length of the fattening period BRED = number of yearly production cyclesLEVL = animal activity levelHERD = herd size at the end of the year
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
FROM MS TO REGIONS
RS LEVW BEEF SLGH LEVL BEEFIT000 1902,2 294,7 2124,4 1723,3 325,3
IT110 353,9 296,7 383,6 323,6 324,4IT120 2,1 310,5 2,2 2,1 315,0IT130 1,4 404,5 1,1 2,1 261,2IT200 355,3 276,1 409,1 290,0 338,2IT310 11,5 297,0 12,4 10,5 324,2IT320 517,7 286,4 580,6 447,6 331,3IT330 45,5 298,4 49,1 42,0 323,3IT400 219,3 269,4 256,1 172,3 342,8IT510 41,5 296,1 45,1 37,8 324,8IT520 34,5 270,5 40,2 27,3 342,0IT530 56,9 250,3 68,4 39,9 356,7IT600 52,8 297,0 57,1 48,3 324,2IT710 27,7 295,9 30,1 25,2 325,0IT720 10,3 351,7 9,9 12,6 288,5IT800 38,0 378,9 34,7 52,5 274,0IT910 27,0 329,1 26,6 29,4 302,1IT920 10,9 341,1 10,6 12,6 294,7IT930 19,2 349,1 18,5 23,1 290,0ITA00 72,0 342,7 69,9 84,1 293,7ITB00 24,0 420,0 19,0 39,9 252,8
Beef activity level (.000 heads) and yields (carcass weight, kg /
head)
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
SUPPLY ELASTICITIES
MEAT and MILK SUPPLY PRICE ELASTICITY:
LITERATURE SEARCH
DIFFERENT SUPPLY FUNCTIONS FORMS, USUALLY LINEAR (OLS)
- Tryfos: slaughtered heads in function of current livestock herd size, expected prices and feed costs;
- Nerlove and Fornari: supply meat (beef & heifers) in function of: final stocks, current and future prices valued with quasi-rational expectation;
- Moro and Canali: explanatory variables producer prices and feed cost
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
SUPPLY ELASTICITIES
• OWN ESTIMATIONS: range of LT & ST elasticity through OLS linear regression
• TIME SERIES: FAOSTAT yearly data (EUROSTAT - CAPRI: dairy cows and price deflator)
• 4 LIVESTOCK• 5 COUNTRIES: same functional form• 2 FORMS tested for cattle and pork
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
SUPPLY ELASTICITIES
model a)
LEVL t = a + b1tHERDt + b2t PRICt-1 + b3t NTRDt + et
model b)
ln(LEVL)t= a + bt ln(PRIC)t-1+ et
where :
LEVL = slaughtered heads
HERD = herd size at the end of the year
PRIC = deflated meat production price
NTRD = animal net trade flow (import - export)
et ~N(0, 1)
SUPPLY ELASTICITY CATTLE, PORK
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
SUPPLY ELASTICITIES
LEVL t = a + b1tYILDt + b2t PRICt-1 + b3t NTRDt + et
where :
LEVL = herd size (Eurostat, CAPRI)
YILD = production yield (Eurostat, CAPRI)
PRIC = deflated milk production price
NTRD = milk net trade (import – export)
et ~N(0, 1)
SUPPLY ELASTICITY DAIRY COWS
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
SUPPLY ELASTICITIES
LEVL t = a + b1tHERDt + b2t PRICt-1 + et
where :
LEVL = slaughtered heads
HERD = herd size at the end of the year
PRIC = deflated meat production price
et ~N(0, 1)
SUPPLY ELASTICITY SHEEP
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
SUPPLY ELASTICITIES
ELASTICITY MODEL (a)
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
SUPPLY ELASTICITIES
COMPARISON MODEL (a) – MODEL (b)france germany ireland italy spain
MODEL a)average (90-96) 1,357 0,991 0,565 0,245
long term average 0,902 0,735 0,546 0,200
MODEL b)average (90-96) 1,100 1,057 0,058
long term average 0,979 0,995 0,056
france germany ireland italy spain
MODEL a)average (90-96) 0,278 0,231 0,113 0,348 0,529
long term average 0,285 0,246 0,074 0,223 0,446
MODEL b)average (90-96) 0,106 0,067 0,09 0,188
long term average 0,103 0,062 0,08 0,181
CATTLE
PORK
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003
FURTHER STEPSIntroduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps
• Elasticities: comparison with other models results
• LEVW for male and female rearing calves
• STCF for all the animals categories
• CE: import / export weights for light and heavy cattle
• Availability of official statistics on regional meat
• Livestock statistics: cover gaps and correct bugs