Upload
chad-golden
View
216
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Capital Market Presentation August 2011:
Real Assets
Hans-Jörg Naumer, Dennis Nacken, Stefan Scheurer
Not for circulation to
private investors
2
Where Do I Invest My Money?
Performance of different asset classes (in %)
Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
-10 -7 -4 -1 2 5 8 11 14 17 20
Equities Europe
Equities Japan
Corporate Bonds
Equities Emerging Markets
Equities Germany
Bonds Advanced Economies
Bonds Emerging Markets
Equities World
Equities USA
Commoditiy Futures
Gold
Performance -1 Month Performance ytd
3
Concern 1: Fear of Escalation of European Debt Crisis
Risk premia of 10y European government bonds vs. German government bonds (-1 year)
2/8/11ASONDJFMAMJJ0246810121416Spread Italy - Germany (10y)Spread Spain - GermanySpread Greece - GermanySpread Portugal - GermanySpread Ireland - Germany0246810121416
Source: European Commission, Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
Debt as % of GDP 2011
Debt as % of GDP 2012
GDP 2011
GDP 2012
Public Budget Balance 2011
Public Budget Balance 2012
Euro area (EU-17) 87,7% 88,5% 1,6% 1,8% -4,3% -3,5%Germany 82,4% 81,1% 2,6% 1,9% -2,0% -1,2%France 84,7% 86,8% 1,8% 2,0% -5,8% -5,3%Italy 120,3% 119,8% 1,0% 1,3% -4,0% -3,2%Spain 68,1% 71,0% 0,8% 1,5% -6,3% -5,3%Netherlands 63,9% 64,0% 1,9% 1,7% -3,7% -2,3%Belgium 97,0% 97,5% 2,4% 2,2% -3,7% -4,2%Austria 73,8% 75,4% 2,4% 2,0% -3,7% -3,3%Greece 157,7% 166,1% -3,5% 1,1% -9,5% -9,3%Finland 50,6% 52,2% 3,7% 2,6% -1,0% -0,7%Portugal 101,7% 107,4% -2,2% -1,8% -5,9% -4,5%Ireland 112,0% 117,9% 0,6% 1,9% -10,5% -8,8%Slovakia 44,8% 46,8% 3,5% 4,4% -5,1% -4,6%Luxembourg 17,2% 19,0% 3,4% 3,8% -1,0% -1,1%Slovenia 42,8% 46,0% 1,9% 2,5% -5,8% -5,0%Cyprus 62,3% 64,3% 1,5% 2,4% -5,1% -4,9%Estonia 6,1% 6,9% 4,9% 4,0% -0,6% -2,4%Malta 68,0% 67,9% 2,0% 2,2% -3,0% -3,0%
4
Concern 2: US Debt
US debt in % of GDP since 1792
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1792 1802 1812 1822 1832 1842 1852 1862 1872 1882 1892 1902 1912 1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012
Civil War27%
Great depression & World War II
122%
Financial Crisis70%
Forecast 2015~100%
Source: Congressional Budget Office; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
5
Concern 2: US Economy
US labor market recovering slowly; US housing market lagging behind
Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
2/8/112006200720082009201020113003504004505005506006507006007008009001000110012001300140015001600US Initial Jobless Claims (inverted)S&P 500 (rhs)Source: Thomson Datastream 2/8/112001200220032004200520062007200820092010801001201401601802002206080100120140160180200220240Case-Shiller House Price IndexUS New One Family Houses Completed & For Sale (rhs)Us Existing One Family Homes Available For Sale (rhs)
6
Concern 3: Growth – Sliding into a New Recession?
Leading indicators suggest cooling down but remain largely on expansionary side.
Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
2/8/11200220032004200520062007200820092010808590951001051101151203035404550556065ifo-IndexISM Purchasing Manager Index (US) (rhs)China Purchasing Manager Index (rhs)
7
Concern 4: Inflation – Especially for China
Expansive monetary policy in industrial nations, restrictive monetary policy in growth countries.
Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
02/08/112006200720082009201020110246810121416ECB Short Term Repo RateFed Funds Target RateJapan Target RateChina Target RateBrazil Target Rate0246810121416Source: Thomson Datastream 2/8/112005200620072008200920102011-3-2-10123420304050607080Consumer Prices Food (y/y, in %)China Purchasing Manager Index - Input prices (+4 months) (rhs)
8
P/E ratios 12 months forward
Valuations Continue to Suggest Equity Investments
Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
2/8/11909192939495969798990001020304050607080910101214161820222426P/E ratio 12m fwd USA+1 Std-1 StdAverage101214161820222426Source: Thomson Datastream
2/8/1190919293949596979899000102030405060708091068101214161820222426P/E ratio 12m fwd Europe+1 Std-1 StdAverage68101214161820222426Source: Thomson Datastream
2/8/11909192939495969798990001020304050607080910681012141618202224P/E ratio 12m fwd Emerging Markets+1 Std-1 StdAverage681012141618202224Source: Thomson Datastream
2/8/119091929394959697989900010203040506070809108101214161820222426P/E ratio 12m fwd World+1 Std-1 StdAverage8101214161820222426Source: Thomson Datastream
9
Earnings Season: Excessive Expectations
71% of S&P 500 Q2 2011 reports exceeded analysts‘ expectations.
Source: Bloomberg; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Consumer Discret.
Consumer Staples
Energy
Financials
(thereof: Banks)
Healthcare
Industrials
Information Tech.
Materials
Telecom Services
Utilities
Total
better than expected as expected worse than expected
71% 68% 68% 71%75% 78%
66%
10%10% 8%
10%9% 8%
14%
19% 22% 24%19% 16% 14%
20%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q2 2011 Q1 2011 Q4 2010 Q3 2010 Q2 2010 Q1 2010 Average2002-2010
Positive Neutral Negative
10
Sales growth & EBITDA margins (12m fwd) in the US, Europe and Emerging Markets.
Earnings Season: Sales Growth but Margin Pressure on the Horizon
Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
02/08/1120072008200920102011161718192021222324EBITDA margin (MSCI USA)EBITDA margin (MSCI Europe)EBITDA margin (MSCI Emerging Markets)161718192021222324Source: Thomson Datastream 02/08/11200620072008200920102011-5051015202530MSCI USA sales growth (12M FWD)MSCI Europe sales growth (12M FWD)MSCI Emerging Markets sales growth (12M FWD)-5051015202530Source: Thomson Datastream
11
Market Participants Remain on the Sidelines
Robust equity market despite reticent investors.
Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
2/8/112006200720082009201020116007008009001000110012001300140015001600-1.40-1.20-1.00-0.80-0.60-0.40-0.2000.200.40Bulls (3-month-average) (rhs)S&P 500Bulls (rhs)Source: Thomson Datastream
12
Investment Theme: Small Caps
Small caps continue to drive performance vs. average premium paid in the US.
Source: Datastream, Bloomberg; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
02/08/1120012002200320042005200620072008200920106080100120140160180200220240MSCI AC World Small Cap (Total Return)MSCI AC World Large Cap (Total Return)MSCI AC World (Total Return)6080100120140160180200220240Source: Thomson Datastream
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Small-Caps Mid-Caps Large-Caps
Ø premium Small Caps: 24,2%Ø premium Mid Caps: 27,3%Ø premium Large Caps: 7,6%
Ø Small Caps Ø Mid Caps
Ø Large Caps
13
Decisive Insights:
In spite of the continued uncertainty, we believe that a slight overweight in equities is advisable.
Despite weaker leading indicators, the underlying trend in the global economy seemingly continues to be positive, making it seem unlikely that the global economy will slip into a second recession.
The EU rescue package is likely to provide a boost to the capital markets, although concerns about the US and its debt problems displaced the relief felt following the EU summit.
The artificial growth created through debt and an increasing risk of inflation present unfavourable conditions for bond investors.
In spite of the continued uncertainty, we believe that a slight overweight in equities is advisable. The reasons for this include the attractive valuation of equities versus bonds and the confidence resulting from the second quarter reporting season
14
www.allianzglobalinvestors.de/capitalmarketanalysis
15
Disclaimer
This presentation has been issued and approved by Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH, a subsidiary of Allianz Global Investors AG (part of the Allianz Group). Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH is a limited liability company incorporated under the laws of the Federal Republic of Germany with its registered office at Mainzer Landstrasse 11-13, D-60329 Frankfurt/Main. Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH is licensed in the Federal Republic of Germany as a provider of financial services (Finanzdienstleistungsinstitut); for the conduct of its business activities, Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH is subject to the supervision of the German Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin).
Allianz Global Investors GmbH has established branches in Switzerland (Zürich), Italy (Milan), United Kingdom (London), Spain (Madrid) and the Netherlands (Utrecht). Allianz Global Investors GmbH also has established representative offices in the Kingdom of Bahrain (Bahrain), Portugal (Lisbon) and Sweden (Stockholm). For these branches and representative offices additional local laws and regulation may be applicable.
This document is meant to provide a broad overview for discussion and/or information purposes. Furthermore, this document was not prepared with the intention of providing legal or tax advice. The views and opinions expressed in this document, which are subject to change, are those of Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH and its affiliated companies at the time of publication. The duplication, publication, or transmission of the contents of this document to unauthorised persons, irrespective of the form, is not permitted.
While some of the data provided herein is derived from various published and unpublished sources, and is assumed to be correct and reliable, it has not been independently verified. Therefore, Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of all data/information and will not accept any liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use.
The investment opportunities described herein are not guaranteed by Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH or affiliated companies within the Allianz Group. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy securities. Statements made to recipients of this document are subject to the provisions of any underlying offer or contract that may have been, or will be, made or concluded. As with all investment products, no guarantee can be given that past performance will be repeated in the future; consequently, there is no assurance that a portfolio will match the returns shown in this document.
This documentation must be seen as confidential.
This document is marketing material according to Art. 19 European Directive 2004/39/EC (MiFiD) and § 31 section 2 German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz).
Internet: www.allianzglobalinvestors.eu.