CAP conference – Interpretation and Thematic Analysis

CAP conference – Interpretation and Thematic Analysis

17 April 2013

RURAL AND ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND ANALYTICAL SERVICES (RESAS)

Contents: 1. Introduction and Definitions2. Interpreting the summary slides 3. Thematic Analysis – Initial

Findings 4. Next Steps

Section 1:

Introduction and Definitions

Introduction - Ceilings / Budgets

Basic Payment Ceiling + Greening

Regional Ceilings

÷

÷

÷

Land in Region

¿¿¿

Regional Rate

€/ha

€/ha

€/ha

Definitions – Regions (1)• Farm Level vs Parish Level

Arable

Permanent Grass

Rough Grazing

Definitions – Regions (2)• Farm Level vs Parish Level

Parish A

Parish B

Definitions – Land

• Land = total eligible area held by farmers activating 2011 SFPS entitlements (just under 4.6m hectares)

Assumptions

• Direct payments ceiling is total value of all entitlements used in 2011 plus the Scottish Beef Calf Scheme (€671m)

• Greening payments are on the same regional area basis as the Basic Payment Scheme - all farms get the full Greening payment

• Zero-sum game – total amount of money stays the same but is paid on area basis –trade-offs are therefore inevitable.

Summary of Scenarios:

Regions

Criteria for Setting Ceilings

Historic Economic

Weighted Land

90:10 Production Weight

EnvironmentalWeight

1 Farm Level LCA 1a n/a

2 Farm Level LCA 1b n/a

3 Farm Level LCA 1c n/a n/a n/a

4 Farm Level LFA n/a

5 Farm Level Land Type n/a

6 Parish LCA 1a n/a

7 Parish LCA 1b n/a n/a n/a

8 Parish Historical SFPS n/a n/a n/a

9 Parish Land Type n/a

Keith’s presentation:

Regions


Historic Economic

Weighted Land


EnvironmentalWeight






6 Parish LCA 1a n/a




Summary Pack/ Thematic Analysis:

Regions


Historic Economic

Weighted Land


EnvironmentalWeight






6 Parish LCA 1a n/a




Section 2:

Interpreting the Summary Packs

Regions and Scenario Rates (1) Shows the regions (2) Shows an illustrative rate that would be

paid in the region (3) We do not yet know the total budget

for direct payments in Scotland so rates will change

(4) It is the difference between the rates that is important for considering regions

Interpreting the summary pack (1)

Commentary Presents : (1) total gains and losses compared to

current payment (2) if the gains and losses tend to be large

(>20%) or small (<20%) for individual businesses

(3) how the scenario compares against the other sectors/ regions in Scottish agriculture


• Count of businesses within a size band are shown on the left

• The total increases and decreases (€m) for business in size band are shown on the right

• Number of businesses in a size band remains the same – it is the difference between the increases and decreases that matters


<50ha 50-<100ha 100-<150ha 150-<200ha 200-<250ha 250ha+ -

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

400,000,000

2011 Payments (€) by farm size

Tota

l Pay

men

ts (€

)


• Charts show counts/amounts (€m) of increases and decreases for Farm Types and Agricultural Regions

• The sector/region with the largest net increase is shown at the top of the chart down to the sector/ region with the biggest net decrease at the bottom

• We haven’t shown % changes – be aware that results for smaller regions/ sectors may look less significant than they are

Section 3:

Thematic Analysis – Initial Findings

Thematic Analysis – Initial Findings• Draws out some initial findings/ common

themes across the 30 scenarios• Results have been broken down by:

1. Farm Types (23)2. Size class (ha) 3. Agricultural Regions (14) 4. High Nature Value farms

Defining Farm Types

• Farm Type rules - (>2/3rds Gross Margins from relevant set of agricultural activities)

• HNVF indicator (LFA Cattle and Sheep Farms with >70% Rough Grazing stocked at <0.5 LSU/ha)

Farm Types with net increases

• Compared to 2011 all 30 scenarios give more money to the following farm types: – Specialist Sheep (SDA); – Cattle and Sheep (Lowland); – Specialist Poultry; and – Horticulture.

• All scenarios give more money to farms covered by the HNVF indicator

Farm Types with net decreases

• Compared to 2011 all 30 scenarios give less money to the following farm types: – Cropping, Cattle and Sheep; – Dairy (LFA & Lowland); – Farms that cannot be classified in a sector (fallow

and other); – Mixed Livestock; – Cropping and Dairy; and – Specialist Pigs.

Comparison across two biggest sectors (1) All scenarios give more money to Beef than Sheep

(2) Big differences for sheep – the amounts are almost double when comparing best & worst scenarios

(3) Balance of money between Beef and Sheep varies widely across the scenarios

Specialist Sheep (SDA) & Mixed Cattle and Sheep (SDA)

• Compared to 2011 all 30 scenarios give more money to these farm types.

• The best scenarios for Specialist Sheep and Mixed Cattle and Sheep tend to be the best for HNV farms.

Specialist Sheep

Generally large increases for sheep farms across scenarios but …

…still some reduction in payments for individual specialist sheep businesses

Specialist Beef (1) • Most scenarios allocate less

money to this sector

• Production orientated budget ceilings best

• Top 3 scenarios for Specialist beef also favour cattle and sheep (DA); dairy farms and smaller sized businesses.

Specialist Beef (2)

• Compared to 2011 payments all scenarios result in big within sector increases and reductions

Dairy • All scenarios give less money

to the sector compared to 2011

• Reductions tend to be smaller than for the beef sector

• Top 3 scenarios for Dairy are also good for Dumfries and Galloway, Ayrshire and Orkney.

Cereals• Economic (Standard

Output) ceilings benefit this sector

• Top 3 Scenarios for this sector benefit farms under 250ha

• Scenarios that benefit cereals tend to see more money in North East Scotland; Fife; and Lothian.

Farm Size (Ha) – Small

• The majority of the scenarios increase total payments to farms <50ha

• Total changes are relatively small: (Max approx €7m) (Min approx -€6m)

Farm Size (Ha) – Medium

• All scenarios produce net reductions for medium sized farms

• Individual businesses will face increases or losses

Farm Size (Ha) – Large

• Large Farms do well under every scenario

• A lot of money moved to larger farms in most scenarios

• Individual businesses will face increases or losses

Agricultural Regions • Only a few scenarios result in more money going

to the North East of Scotland and Dumfries and Galloway

• Most scenarios are good for Highland, Eileanan an Iar and Tayside

• Tayside – two main reasons for increases: – gains for Sheep/ Cattle and Sheep businesses; and – additional gains in General Cropping in the economic/

production orientated scenarios

What’s next?

• Identify front runners (next month) • Commence more detailed analysis:

– Other aspects of CAP payments (e.g. coupled payments; French redistributive analysis)

– Farm business analysis – Farmers’ response (SRUC/ JHI survey) – Economic & Environmental Impacts

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Documents

CAP conference – Interpretation and Thematic Analysis