Candidate Training on Voter Targeting

8/17/2019 Candidate Training on Voter Targeting

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1. Planning Your Campaign

2. Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters

3. Understanding Past Election Results & Trends4. Calculating Your Win Number

5. Selecting Target Groups

6. Knowing the Issues that Matter7. Planning Your Messages & Outreach Strategies

8. Creating your Budget & Campaign Plan

Overview


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There are three finite resources in every campaign

People Time

Money

The best way to combat these limitations is through

careful planning and focusing your resources on target groups

of likely voters that you can win over and turn out to the polls.

Our Starting Premise -


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Campaign Planning at a Glance

Campaigning for General ElectionSeptember to November ‘09

Campaigning for Primary ElectionAugust to Early September ‘09

Fighting Challenges to PetitionsMid-July to Early August

Petitioning TimeJune to Mid-July

Fine-tuning your campaign plan & budget

Designing your campaign materials Gathering & training your petitioning team

January to May

Assembling your campaign team

Analyzing your district & identifying your

target groups Fundraising

October to December


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Analysis of Hypothetical “Council District 99”

Total Population: 165,000 Total Voters: 80,000

Total DemocraticVoters: 60,000

Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters ** Most public officials are elected by a small, unique set of voters **


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Analysis of Hypothetical “Council District 99”

Total Democratic Voters: 60,000 Prime DemocraticVoters: 18,000

Likely Voters for CityCouncil Race: 12,000

( About 1 in 14 people

living in district)

Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters ** Most public officials are elected by a small, unique set of voters **


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Voter Lists Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters


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Voter Lists

Key considerations

Get data in a format that is easy to work with & manipulate

Get lists that are filtered by voter history (i.e. Prime, Double

Prime, Triple Prime)

Should include gender and age

Ethnicity and phone numbers can be added Use this data to generate statistics about who your prime

voters are and where they live

Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters


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Voter Lists

Gender Analysis



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Voter Lists

Gender Breakdown by Age


60%40%1,43894175+

59%41%3,1022,19360-74

58%42%3,6652,69645-59

66%34%1,94998630-44

63%37%64638418-29

Female %Male %Female PrimeMale PrimeAge


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Voter Lists

Age Analysis



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Voter Lists

Race/Ethnic Analysis



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Voter Lists

Key Findings from Prime Voter Analysis

Large female vote, particularly concentrated under age 45

Youth vote appears minimal

Over half of prime voters (52%) are of family age

Ethnically diverse with a number of potential subgroups

including African-American, Caribbean, Latino, South Asianand Jewish voters



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Geographical Analysis of Council District 99

Divided into 100 Election Districts

About 600 registeredDemocrats in each

Roughly 3-5 cityblocks in size

One voting booth

per electiondistrict


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Concentration of Prime Voters


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Concentration of African-American & Caribbean Voters


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Concentration of Prime Caucasian & Jewish Voters


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Concentration of Hispanic Voters


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Past Primary Turnout

Understanding Past Election Results & Trends

6%62,5003,7502008

4%59,0002,3602007

15%60,5009,0752006

12%62,0007,4402005

7%63,0004,41020044%60,0002,4002003

8%61,0004,8802002

18%62,00011,1602001

TurnoutEnrollmentVotes Cast


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Trends in Primary Turnout & Enrollment


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2009 Projections for Council District 99

Expected Enrollment: 64,000

Expected Turnout: 18%

Expected Voters: 11,520

Win Numbers

2 candidates: 6,106 (53%)






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Past Election Results

Votes Received by Incumbent in 2001


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Votes Received by Incumbent in 2005


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Fernando Ferrer Votes in 2005 Mayoral Primary


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Key Findings from Analysis

Incumbent support concentrated in a handful of electiondistricts

African-American support for incumbent is feeble and not aguarantee for incumbent

Ferrer campaign provides possible model to winning district

with multi-ethnic coalition of voters



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Sample Variables to Consider

Selecting Target Groups

Demographic Age Gender

Families Race/Ethnicity

Religion

Geographic Neighborhood

Long-time Residents

Socio-Economic Income level Union membership

Rent vs. Own Public housing residents


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Translating Target Groups into Vote Projections

# Prime Voters in Group x Expected Support = Vote Projection

Selecting Target Groups

4,376

- 1,094Minus Overlap

5,470Combined Total1,12040%2,8005. Neighborhood X

1,03840%2,5954. Women Under 45

64040%1,6003. Caribbean Community

80040%2,0002. Minority Families

1,87260%3,1201. Hispanic Community

VotesExpected SupportPrime VotersTarget Group


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My Neighborhood Statistics

http://gis.nyc.gov/ops/mmr/address.jsp

Detailed 311 Reports

http://www.nyc.gov/html/doitt/html/about/about_311_local_law.shtml

Community Board District Profiles

http://www.nyc.gov/html/dcp/html/lucds/cdstart.shtml

Lists of Selected Facilities and Program Sites (including schools, parks,public safety, health, mental health and other social service facilities)

Also request the Community Board’s annual Needs Statement, which isavailable from the Community Board or Dept of City Planning

Knowing the Issues that Matter


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Key Tips

Plan your strategies based on what makes logical sense for eachtarget groups

Reach out to target groups with information on the issues they care

about During your voter contacts, always try to collect information to

append your voter file – most importantly, flag your die-hardsupporters, the persuadable voters and your opponent’s die-hard

supporters

Overlap a variety of tactics including door-to-door outreach, directmail and phone calls to maximize the impact of each message.

Planning Your Messages & Outreach Strategies


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Example of a Well-Planned, Themed Outreach Effort

1. Direct mail piece on day-care and early childhood education sentto your target groups of women under 45 and minority families

Details your positions and demonstrates your commitment to the issue

Includes high-quality photos of you and your family that readerscan relate to

References a specific website where readers can go to learn more

2. Website “landing page” that is specific to day-care and earlychildhood education and gathers information about visitors (includesemail, phone number, etc)



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Example of a Well-Planned, Themed Outreach Effort

3. Phone calls to voters asking them if they received your mailing andtelling them that you’ll be in front of the local schools meeting withparents all week if they’d like to talk more.

4. On-the-street voter outreach in front of the local schools at thestart and end of the day when parents are dropping off and picking uptheir kids.

5. Letter-to-the-editor campaign targeted a local papers that stressesthe need to improve day-care and early childhood education in yourcommunity and proposed a set of specific changes.



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Review of what we’ve done

1. Identified & Analyzed Likely Voters

2. Looked at Past Election Results & Trends

3. Calculated a Win Number

4. Selected Target Groups & Created Vote Projections

5. Analyzed the Issues & Created Outreach Strategies

Next Step

Calculating the cost of outreach strategies and charting

out the steps on your campaign calendar

Creating your Budget & Campaign Plan


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Questions for Consideration when Budgeting

Are you hiring staff or paying consultants to manage your day-to-day operations?

How much direct mail are you planning?

Does your audience of prime voters necessitate high-tech webpresence?

Do you have a good bookkeeper and treasurer to manage your

accounting books and prepare your campaign finance reports?

Are you accounting for shipping fees on your print materials?



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Budget Breakdown


Campaign Expenditures by Category

19%

3%

13%

9%

27%

29%

Admin & Campaign Management Research

Legal Fees Direct Mail & Communications

Field Organization Fundraising


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Our Contact Information:

Grassroots Initiative

Address: 224 W. 4th Street NY, NY 10014

Phone: 212.400.0531

Email: [email protected]

Website: www.gograssroots.org

Documents

Candidate Training on Voter Targeting