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Canadian Oil Sands: Opportunities and Challenges
November 3, 2010
2
OVERVIEW
• Oil Sands Introduction• Recovery Techniques
– Mining– In Situ
• Oil Sands Projects and Spending• Economic Fundamentals• Oil Sands Challenges• Legal
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ALBERTA’S OIL SANDS
• What are Oil Sands?
– A mixture of sand and other rock material containing deposits of bitumen (a heavy crude oil; API gravity typically <10)
– At room temperature, bitumen is near solid state and must be converted to upgraded crude (typically API gravity of between 30 to 40)
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Alberta’s Oil Sands Deposits
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Crude Bitumen In-Place Volumes and Reserves
Mineable In Situ
Initial Volume In-Place1,629 Billion Barrels
Initial Established Reserves178 Billion Barrels
113 Mineable 35 Mineable
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RECOVERABLE OIL RESERVES
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CANADIAN PRODUCTION GROWTH
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US IMPORTS
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RECOVERY TECHNIQUES
Two main types of recovery methods:
• In situ (meaning “in place”)
• Surface mining & extraction
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BITUMEN PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY CURVE
Knowledge
Time
SAGD
NEW
MINING
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MCMURRAY FORMATION OUTCROP
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STEAM ASSISTED GRAVITY DRAINAGE
From EnCana Website
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SURFACE MINING & EXTRACTION
• Overlying muskeg must be drained before oil sands can be mined; often carried out in winter
• Trucks & Shovels used to expose top of oil sands and prepare site for mining
• Oil sands formations are typically 40 to 60 meters thick and sit on top of limestone beds
• Over time, different techniques have been developed to mine oil sands
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OPPORTUNITIES
• Oil sands account for about half of global oil reserves for private investment (CAPP)
• Oil sands production in 2008 was 1.3 million barrels per day. Expected to grow to 3.3 million barrels per day by 2025 (CAPP)
• Oil sands development is expected to contribute over $1.7 trillion to North America’s economy over the next 25 years (Canadian Energy Research Institute)
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ATTRACTIVE ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS
Factors making oil sands investments appealing:• Mining projects are characterized by:
– massive resources (measured in Billions of bbls rather than millions of bbls)
– essentially “no” exploration risk;– non-declining production profiles; and– extremely long reserve life (typically 40 to 50 years).
• In-Situ projects are characterized by:– massive resources (measured in Billions of bbls rather than millions of
bbls);– low exploration risk (increased production risk relative to mining); and– extremely long reserve life (typically 40 to 50 years).
• Both Mining and In-Situ have an attractive royalty regime.
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PROJECT ECONOMICS
“A new mine requires a crude price of roughly $80 (US) a barrel . . . SAGD needs $65.”
Peter OgdenNational Bank FinancialThe Globe and MailSeptember 21, 2010
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OIL SANDS ROYALTIES
• Oil sands projects are subject to a royalty payable on gross revenues ranging from 1% to 9% (depending on the price of oil)
• After project payout, the oil sands royalty becomes the greater of the gross revenue royalty described above and a net revenue royalty ranging from 25% to 40%
• Both oil sands royalty rates hit their maximum at oil prices of $120/bbl
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CANADIAN CORPORATE TAX RATES
20102011 2012
Federal 18% 17% 15%
Alberta 10% 10% 10%
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OIL SANDS CHALLENGES
Challenges:• Use of land• Use of water• Use of natural gas• Infrastructure requirements• Workforce availability• Access to markets• Costs• Greenhouse gas emissionsResearch and development is aimed at:• Sustainable resource development in an environmentally
responsible manner• Reducing costs
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LEGAL MATTERS
• Corporate acquisitions by foreign companies require approval from Canada’s Minister of Industry, under the Investment Canada Act, based on whether transaction is of “net benefit” to Canada
• The purchase terms are negotiated between the buyer and seller with the Government of Canada very rarely offering incentives for the purchaser
• Government to government linkages are not common practice
• Recent trend for foreign companies to invest in Canadian companies through equity investments or joint ventures as opposed to outright acquisitions
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QUESTIONS ?