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Canadian Mining Eye improved in Q3 2017
According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, capital spending on greenfield projects is expected to remain muted in the near term as miners remained focused on improving balance sheet health. On the other hand, brownfield projects are expected to attract capital spending from both precious and base metal miners (particularly zinc and copper), underscored by improving commodities pricing, limited additional supply and better demand fundamentals in China.1 Some of the mining companies that have committed capital spending on brownfield projects include HudBay, Trevali Mining, Sierra Metals and Lundin Mining.2
Canadian Mining EyeQ3 2017
1 “Lack of new projects, M&A to buoy prices,” Mining.com, 11 August 2017.2 “Well Funded for Brownfield Growth,” Scotiabank, 30 August 2017; “Base Metal Q2/17 Wrap-Up and Outlook,”
BMO Capital Markets, 16 August 2017.
A Q&A with David Garofalo, President and CEO of Goldcorp Inc. page 4
1. Digital effectiveness 6. Cash optimization
2. Competitive shareholder returns 7. Social license to operate
3. Cyber 8. Resource management
4. New world commodities 9. Access to and optimization of energy
5. Regulatory risk 10. Managing joint ventures
Top 10 business risks facing mining and metals 2017-2018
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Index comparisons Q3 2017 Q2 2017
Canadian Mining Eye index 2% -7%
UK Mining Eye -6% 2%
S&P/TSX Composite Metals and Mining index 1% -9%
Major index 3% -8%
2 | Canadian Mining Eye Q3 2017
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Canadian Mining Eye index and peers, last 12 months
Source: EY, Thomson Datastream
Canadian Mining Eye UK Mining Eye (rebased)
FTSE All Share Mining (rebased) S&P/TSX Composite Metals & Mining (rebased)
S&P/ASX 300 Metals & Mining (rebased)
In our recently published mining risks report, EY identified regulatory risk (resource nationalism) and social license to operate as 2 of the top 10 business risks facing mining and metals companies in 2017-2018. In this context we note that recently the Tanzanian Government revised its mining laws and increased royalty tax on gold, copper, silver and platinum exports from the current 4% to 6%. The imposition of these amendments have already impacted Barrick Gold’s subsidiary Acacia through reduced production and revenues and might also impact AngloGold Ashanti as it commences arbitration.3
Elsewhere, according to BMI Research, a unit of Fitch Group, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is planning to introduce new mining regulations including higher taxes on profits from 30% to 35%, larger government interest from 5% to 10% in new projects and higher royalties from 2.0% to 3.5% for copper and cobalt mines. Companies such as Banro Corporation, Katanga Mining, Ivanhoe Mines and Alphamin Resources having mines in DRC are expected to face headwinds in the wake of new mining amendments.4 In September, Canadian miner Eldorado Gold withdrew its previous decision to halt operations at its Olympias mine in Greece in response to government’s delays in issuing permits. However, there is still uncertainty regarding the resumption of mining activities at its open-pit mine at Skouries.5
• Gold: Gold Prices increased 3% in Q3 2017 compared with a flat trend in Q2 2017. Improvement in prices was due to geo-political issues, primarily related to North Korea and US domestic political issues, lowered investor confidence in US and weaker US dollar.6
• Base metals: Nickel price increased 11% in Q3 2017 compared with a 6% decline in Q2 2017. The prices improved in both July and August owing to weakening US dollar and robust stainless steel production.7 Copper prices increased 9% and zinc prices rose by 16% in Q3 2017.
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Canadian Mining Eye index and peers, last 12 months
Source: EY, Thomson Datastream
Canadian Mining Eye UK Mining Eye (rebased)
FTSE All Share Mining (rebased) S&P/TSX Composite Metals & Mining (rebased)
S&P/ASX 300 Metals & Mining (rebased)
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3 “Acacia accepts 50% lift in royalty as Tanzania turns the screw,” Miningmx.com, 14 July 2017.4 “Democratic Republic of Congo to revisit changes made to mining regulations,” Miningreview.com, 26 July 2017;
“Canadian mining companies turn bullish on Congo, despite its violence,” The Globe and Mail, 19 March 2017.5 “Canadian mining firm withdraws threat to quit Greece amid protests,” The Guardian, 21 September 2017.6 “North American Gold Miners,” Macquarie Research, 20 August 2017; “The Trunk Call: Weekly Metals Update,”
iA Securities, 1 September 2017. 7 “Nickel Price Surges, But Market Remains Vulnerable,” S&P Global, 15 August 2017.
Canadian Mining Eye index, gold, copper and LMEX Index over Q3 2017
Canadian Mining Eye LMEX Index (rebased) Gold (rebased) Copper (rebased)
Source: EY, Thomson Datastream
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OutlookGold prices have remained range-bound for most of 2017 except for a significant rise in prices in August. This was largely due to geopolitical instability, a weaker US dollar and uncertainty as to whether President Trump’s pro-business agenda will be implemented.8 The downside risk to gold prices still centres on the possibility of Fed raising key interest rates by 0.25% in December 2017 and further rate hikes in 2018.9 However, the upcoming seasonal demand for gold is expected to provide support to prices in the coming months.10
With respect to base metals, zinc prices are expected to continue their upward trend underscored by tight inventories, supply deficit and improving Chinese sentiments (world’s largest consumer of refined zinc).11 According to Wood Mackenzie, global refined zinc demand is expected to increase by 3% to 14.7 million tonnes in 2017, whereas the production is anticipated to grow by 2% to track 13.8 million tonnes, thus resulting in a deficit market in 2017.12 Canadian miners such as Vale, Trevali, Lundin Mining, Teck Resources, among many others, are slated to benefit based on the favourable conditions mentioned above.13 Nickel prices are expected to remain volatile given higher inventory levels and an excess supply market, offset by higher stainless steel demand in China.14 Meanwhile, in response to persistent lower nickel prices, First Quantum announced the closure of its Ravensthorpe mine and Vale placed its Caledonia operations under review.15 Copper prices are still expected to benefit from declining mine supply, improving global macro-economic outlook, weakening US dollar and Chinese industrial growth.16 The International Monetary Fund raised its growth expectations for China by 0.1% from its previous estimates to 6.7% in 2017.17
Canadian Mining Eye index, gold, copper and LMEX Index over Q3 2017
Canadian Mining Eye LMEX Index (rebased) Gold (rebased) Copper (rebased)
Source: EY, Thomson Datastream
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More insightsHear from Jim MacLean, Canadian Mining & Metals Leader, Ernst & Young LLP as he reflects on Canada’s 150th and the role of mining and metals.
8 “The Trunk Call: Weekly Metals Update,” iA Securities, 1 September 2017.9 “US Fed seen staying on track for December rate increase,” Press release, Livemint, 18 September 2017.10 “The Trunk Call: Weekly Metals Update,” iA Securities, 1 September 2017.11 “Morning Meeting Notes,” Cormark Securities, 14 August 2017.12 “Canada Mining: Industry Snapshots,” Acquisdata, 30 August 2017; “Q2 2017 earnings results report,”
Teck Resources, 27 July 2017.13 “The Trunk Call: Weekly Metals Update,” iA Securities, 25 August 2017.14 “Nickel Price Surges, But Market Remains Vulnerable,” S&P Global, 15 August 2017.15 “First Quantum Minerals Ltd.,” Canaccord, 9 August 2017; “Vale says loss-making New Caledonia nickel
operations under review,” Reuters, 4 July 2017.16 “Base Metal Check-In – Improving Pricing Prompts Forecast and Target Price Update,” Cormark Securities,
1 September 201717 “IMF maintains global growth forecasts; China, euro zone revised higher,” Press release, Reuters, 24 July 2017.
Canadian Mining Eye Q3 2017 | 3
Learn about the top business risks for Quebec mining companies from Zahid Fazal, Quebec Mining & Metals Leader, Ernst & Young LLP.
4 | Canadian Mining Eye Q3 2017
What opportunities are most exciting for Goldcorp and for the entire mining sector?
It’s hard not to be excited about the commodity first. While we’re in a rising nominal interest rate environment, I believe real interest rates are going in the opposite direction with significant inflation on the horizon after 10 years of quantitative easing.
Stock markets are buoyant, unemployment is low and industrial utilization is high, all pointing to a coming cycle of high inflation and central banks trying to play catch up. History has demonstrated that gold does well as an asset class at the beginning of a monetary tightening cycle with central banks slow to remove excess liquidity, out of fear of tipping the economy into recession. Gold preserves capital as inflation eats away at financial assets.
What are the top challenges currently facing the gold sector?
Our ability as an industry to provide investors with leverage to the price of gold is challenged because the industry has seen a one-third decline in reserves over the last five years.
After the gold sector experienced dramatic input cost inflation during the last peak in the gold cycle in 2011, investors rightly demanded that we attack our cost structures aggressively. Exploration investments represented low hanging fruit in that regard. We did our best to bring all sustaining costs down and as a result, exploration suffered and we experienced massive depletion in global gold reserves.
In addition, the junior sector has also had limited access to capital markets for a period of time, and more recently only on a selective basis. So there’s been little focus on the grassroots exploration required to find new gold reserves.
As an industry, I believe we have done a great job of cost containment by driving down discretionary costs but that lack of exploration undermines value creation over the long run. We’re going to have to get busy to reverse the downward trajectory in reserves.
As you enter into joint ventures (JVs) what are your biggest concerns and how do you propose to mitigate them?
I see three real opportunities from JVs. 1) You share the financial and technical risk inherent in what is a capital and engineering intensive business; 2) Collaboration on acquisitions prevents us from driving up prices in the course of bidding against each other; and 3) If there are deposits in close proximity to each other, it makes sense to put them under common ownership — rather than build duplicate infrastructure — allowing you to build one industrial complex to share across multiple deposits. Historically, our industry has done a fairly poor job at this. However, as more JVs are formed, capital intensity is lowered and so are risks, enhancing rates of return.
President and CEO, Goldcorp Inc.
AQ&with David Garofalo
Obviously there are some challenges to JVs. For instance, different partners within a JV may have different capital priorities, or there could be a mismatch in terms of timing which can delay projects. In addition you need to be sure you’re in agreement on sustainability practices and ensure that you have general philosophical alignment before entering into a JV.
Are there cultural barriers that exist in the industry that may aid or destroy innovation?
Historically, the mining industry’s practice was to make things bigger — bigger machines, bigger mills, and deliver cost efficiencies through economies of scale as opposed to real technological innovation. However, I do see real potential for disruptive technologies for the mining industry — such as autonomous vehicles, real time collection of data and machines in common work areas communicating with each other.
As new technologies and innovations are employed, what are the critical concerns you have from a people-impact perspective?
Obviously of concern is reducing employment levels — but, I would argue if we could lower the operating costs of the industry generally, that will actually make more deposits viable and economic — allowing us to develop more mines, and I think the net impact on employment would be largely neutral.
Also if we’re able to extend mine life it would allow us to retain employment for a longer period of time. This may require evolving the skillset of our workforce to include more high technology positions.
I do believe that new technologies are changing the way we do business. We already have machine operators capable of running heavy machinery several hundreds of kilometres away from the site. There’s no need for them to commute — thereby improving productivity, reducing travel costs, camp costs, catering costs associated with having those people living in the camps. And by having more remote opportunities, like telecommuting, it may also help the industry address our diversity challenge. As you know, only 1/10 of the industry’s workforce is female and we believe workforce diversity would be enhanced by more flexible work practices that technology could deliver.
Since taking the position as CEO in February 2016, you’ve been tasked with leading a more mature company that has transitioned from being an upstart to one of the industry’s largest companies. What do you see as some specific priority areas that may be unique to Goldcorp?
Over the past year we’ve made great strides in introducing a much higher degree of technical and financial rigour in our investment framework. This includes internal and external investment opportunities, our safety practices, our budgeting and planning processes and our financial reporting processes.
You get asked lots of questions by investors, your board, and others, what important question are they not asking?
I think at the top of everyone’s mind should be, “Where is the reserve growth going to come from?”. Right now this market has little fresh capital. The focus has been on short-term profitability and meeting quarterly numbers, so we’re seeing an incredible amount of volatility around quarterly results.
Some of that is because a lot of capital is now managed by machines (i.e. passive fund management). Discretionary or actively invested pools of capital are shrinking, with capital increasingly flowing into ETF’s. With the focus increasingly on short-term results, our industry, which requires a long-dated view to replace depleting assets is being starved of capital. It takes some courage for mining companies to invest in the long-term in the face of that dynamic but at Goldcorp, we strongly believe in building new mines at the bottom of the cycle when costs are low and competition for scarce human resources is less pronounced.
AQ& with David Garofalo
Canadian Mining Eye Q3 2017 | 5
6 | Canadian Mining Eye Q3 2017
Index constituents selected at quarter end
Q3 2017 MV (CDN$m)
Q3 2017 MV (CDN$m)
Q3 2017 MV (CDN$m)
Kirkland Lake Gold 3,337 Lithium Americas 726 Fission Uranium 310 New Gold 2,668 Guyana Goldfields 723 Teranga Gold 301 Endeavour Mining 2,590 Premier Gold Mines 722 Imperial Metals 299 Centerra Gold 2,560 Northern Dynasty Minerals 681 Harte Gold 293 Alamos Gold 2,535 Mountain Province Diamonds 651 Wesdome Gold Mines 292 Osisko Gold Royalties 2,527 Alacer Gold 639 Atlantic Gold 272 HudBay Minerals 2,417 Stornoway Diamond 622 Anglo Pacific Group 270 Detour Gold 2,404 Lundin Gold 609 Maverix Metals 269 OceanaGold 2,319 Continental Gold 568 Great Panther Silver 260 Eldorado Gold 2,171 Silvercorp Metals 568 Belo Sun Mining 260 Pretium Resources 2,094 Nemaska Lithium 532 Mason Graphite 245 Katanga Mining 1,984 Capstone Mining 532 Victoria Gold 243 NovaGold Resources 1,640 Taseko Mines 529 Alio Gold 240 SSR Mining 1,581 Altius Minerals 514 Asanko Gold 240 Torex Gold Resources 1,561 Sierra Metals 513 Polymet Mining 239 Dominion Diamond 1,449 Sabina Gold & Silver 499 Brio Gold 236 First Majestic Silver 1,410 Gold Standard Ventures 497 Cobalt 27 Capital 236 Trevali Mining 1,153 Gold Reserve 483 Lydian International 226 MAG Silver 1,129 Dundee Precious Metals 482 NGEx Resources 224 SEMAFO 1,072 Leagold Mining 477 GoldMining 218 Sandstorm Gold 1,041 Roxgold 461 Auryn Resources 217 NexGen Energy 938 Argonaut Gold 434 Falco Resources 216 Orocobre 932 Largo Resources 412 Ascot Resources 215 Lucara Diamond 926 Champion Iron 383 Bear Creek Mining 211 Arizona Mining 914 Dalradian Resources 379 AuRico Metals 204 Fortuna Silver Mines 869 Endeavour Silver 379 Avesoro Resources 186 Seabridge Gold 864 First Mining Finance 372 Alexco Resource 183 TMAC Resources 852 Barkerville Gold Mines 361 Trek Mining 182 Osisko Mining 834 Golden Star Resources 361 West African Resources 179 Nevsun Resources 816 North American Palladium 356 Marlin Gold Mining 172 McEwen Mining 812 Perseus Mining 341 Mandalay Resources 151 Klondex Mines 808 Atalaya Mining 326 White Gold 121 China Gold International Resources 777 Denison Mines 324 Richmont Mines 742 Sherritt International 316
MV — Market value
Shading represents index entrants
Changes to the Mining Eye indexThere were 10 changes in index constituents in Q3 2017. IAMGOLD Corporation moved to the Top 20 index. Platinum Group Metals, Red Eagle Mining, Energy Fuels, Jaguar Mining, Lumina Gold, Corsa Coal, Paladin Energy, Integra Gold and Exeter Resource exited the index and were replaced by index entrants highlighted in the table above.
Source: EY, TSX and TSXV Market Intelligence Group
Canadian Mining Eye Q3 2017 | 7
Index dataIn
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Mining Eye index and S&P/TSX Composite index performance, last 12 months
Source: EY, Thomson Datastream
Mining Eye S&P/TSX Composite (rebased)
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Mining Eye index and S&P/TSX Composite index since 2008
Source: EY, Thomson Datastream
Mining Eye S&P/TSX Composite (rebased) Top 20 — TSX Mining
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
If you would like to view the raw index data, please contact:
Jay Patel EY Canadian Mining & Metals Transactions Leader Ernst & Young LLP +1 416 943 3861
8 | Canadian Mining Eye Q3 2017
The Canadian Mining Eye tracks Canadian mining sector performance of 100 TSX and TSXV mid-tier and junior companies with market capitalizations at the end, broadly falling between CDN$3.3b and CDN$121m. These companies trade on the TSX and TSXV, though some of them are headquartered outside Canada. Movements and analysis of the index are reported quarterly. From Q1 2014, we have
retroactively reset the index to Top 20 and Next 100 (from Top 25 and Next 100) based on the market capitalizations at the end of 2013. The historical data has also been reset for comparatives purpose.
All company information is sourced from publicly available sources, including company websites and regulatory announcements.
Jay PatelCanadian Mining & Metals Transactions Leader Ernst & Young LLP+1 416 943 [email protected]
Canadian contactsJim MacLeanCanadian Mining & Metals Leader Ernst & Young LLP +1 416 943 [email protected]
Blake LangillOntario Mining & Metals Leader Ernst & Young LLP +1 416 943 3556 [email protected]
Zahid FazalQuebec Mining & Metals Leader Ernst & Young LLP +1 514 879 [email protected]
Michelle GrantBC Mining & Metals Transactions Leader Ernst & Young Inc.+1 604 899 [email protected]
Theophile YameogoCanadian Mining & Metals Advisory Leader Ernst & Young LLP +1 416 943 3832 [email protected]
Anton IvanyiBC Mining & Metals Leader Ernst & Young LLP +1 604 891 8366 [email protected]
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The views of third parties set out in this publication are not necessarily the views of the global EY organization or its member firms. Moreover, they should be seen in the context of the time they were made.
EY Global Mining & Metals Leader Miguel Zweig +55 11 2573 3363 [email protected]
Africa Wickus Botha +27 11 772 3386 [email protected]
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Canada Jim MacLean +1 416 943 3674 [email protected]
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How EY’s Global Mining & Metals Network can help your businessWith increasingly positive sentiment in the sector, miners are focused on restoring balance sheet strength and liquidity in preparation for growth. The sector’s key opportunity is still productivity. Although many have made productivity improvements, the critical next wave of gains needs a strong focus on loss elimination, with digital being a key enabler.
EY has significant experience in assisting companies to evaluate and implement strategic initiatives, with deep sector knowledge to support you on finance initiatives, such as portfolio optimization and capital planning, and through to operational improvement programs, such as productivity and digital enablement.
