Can we do without nuclear?Mind the economic conditions of

a technological transition

Jean-Charles HourcadeDR CNRS, Directeur d’études EHESS

Lessons from the past, why a technical success ….

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(1-Eimp)/TPES ….. In toe

FranceGermanyItalieJapon

… leads to so ambiguous economic outcomes

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Value of Net Energy Imports/GDP Germany/France, Italy/France, Japan/France index 1973 = 1

GermanyItalyJapan

Trade balance vs. energy external bill

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Balance commerciale/PIB Facture énergétique/PIB

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Balance commerciale/PIB Facture énergétique/PIB

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Balance commerciale/PIB Facture énergétique/PIB

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0.0600000000000001

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Balance commerciale/PIB Facture énergétique/PIB

Between technical and economical success, what parameters?

• A ‘electrification nuclear’ a lesser import-substitution effect than the « substititution nuclear »

• Exchange rates variations in $ … and other currencies

• Trade balance surplus and the purchasing power of oil and gaz

• Industrial « strategies », including their impact on energy demand

• A « crowding out effect » ???? … good question but hard to settle

An IAMC exercise: carbon constraints and availability of technological options

Combining three assumptions

Availability of CCS

Deployment of Nuclear

Level of Energy Efficiency

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

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Hypothèses centrales Forte EE Pas de CCS Pas de Nuke Combiné

A low cost for banning nuclear … even for a 550 ppm all gases Carbon Concentration Target?

GDP variation from the baseline

Cost of the ban of nuclear

Insights for the Future: ‘suggestions’ from existing world scenarios

• Can the world « live » without nuclear? – « likely » yes in the absence of carbon constraint– « less likely » yes in the presence of carbon constraint

… because the political limits to nuclear have already been internalized in baseline scenarios

• Will the world « live » without nuclear? This will depend upon decisions in China, India as well as in the US and EU

• France, a specific case because nuclear is central in the electrical system

France without nuclear: Let us pick one plausible but arbitrary baseline …. And the « Taxe Quinet »

• GDP growth rate: ~ from 1,9 % to 1,7 after 2035• Electricity demand: multiplied by 2 in 2050 • Emissions over 2010 and 2050 (baseline): 12,4 GtCO2 • Share of the nuclear: between 60% and 70%• Energy efficiency set of asymptotes• New and renewable energies: a potential of 30% • Significant infrastructure investments in transport and buildings• Implementation of the Quinet’s carbon tax

• France has a nul external debt and a nul public debt in 2050

Date 2011 2020 2030 2050

€/tCO2 32 56 100 200

GDP variations from the baseline

GDP variations with fine tuned recycling of the carbon tax

Conclusions: a three step debate to be conducted

Are carbon – free no nuke options (including energy efficiency) available the transition technically feasible? • Highly controversial but, ultimately• A matter of direction of innovation and of pace of deployment

Economic lubricants matter• To support the re-direction of microeconomic decisions• To minimize the social costs of the transition

Societal pre-conditions (not considered in the previous simulations)• The availablity of skilled labor: does the education system ‘produces’

enough ingeniers and technicians in the concerned sectors• Beyond energy efficiency, the consumption styles