Campaigns and Elections

Parties work to control government by winning elections…how?

Objectives

• Identify differences between Presidential and Congressional elections.

• Why do incumbent members always win?

• What impact does the primary schedule have on the presidential election?

• What are the steps for running for President?

• What is “candidate-centered politics?”

Presidential vs. Congressional Elections

• Presidential

• More competitive

• Narrow margins

• Partisan

• Term limits take away incumbent's advantage

• President Serves masses

• President is held accountable

• Congressional• Turnout is usually lowerTurnout is usually lower• Less competitiveLess competitive• Incumbents serves Incumbents serves

constituentsconstituents• Campaign AGAINST Campaign AGAINST

WashingtonWashington• Can ride Coattails of more Can ride Coattails of more

popular candidates.popular candidates.• Party is not as important…Party is not as important…

IE Joe LibermanIE Joe Liberman

Turnout in Presidential and Congressional Elections

Road to the White House

• Step 1 Get mentioned• Use the media• Reporters• Support Legislation• Governor• Personal charisma and

fame.• (Keynote speaker at

National Convention)

Road to White House (Continued)

• Find time to run• May have to resign from

current job• 2 year process in some

cases• Senators skip many

votes/Governors will turn authority to Lt. Gov’s

• Travel to States like New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina to “test the waters”

Road to White House

• Before the primaries candidates need to find ways to raise money

• During primaries almost all candidates accept FEDERAL MATCHING FUNDS..meaning the government matches money raised by candidates in primaries

• In order to qualify for funds candidates must raise $5,000 in 20 states in contributions of $250 or less for primaries

Road to the White House (con’t)

• Organization is key• Large paid staff• Volunteers on the

ground and in caucuses

• Advisors to help create POSITION PAPERS

• Political Consultants

Road to the White House (con’t)

• Formulate a strategy• Defend or attack?• Tone; + or - ?• Theme; trust,

experience, change• Timing• Target voter

Presidential Primaries

• Different from General elections

• Different voters

• Need to mobilize activists for $

• More ideological.

• Balancing Act liberal or conservative enough to be nominated

• Move to center after nomination.

Primary Schedule

• Since reforms almost every state holds a primary or caucus

• Run by local election officials

• New Hampshire Always hosts the first primary (tradition)

• SUPER TUESDAY• Major states all have

their primaries on the same day

The Issues

• Position Issues• Women’s right to choose• Public school choice• Social security• Valence Issues• A strong economy• Good Public Education• Be ware of candidate centered politics…stance

on issues doesn’t matter as much as the personality of the candidate.

Iowa Caucuses

• February of each Presidential Election Year.

• Mass party meetings• Must do well to get

media attention and contributor interest

The General Election (Candidate Centered Politics)

• Advertising;• Most efficient way; 30

second spots• Make the “News” Cycle• Sunday political shows• CNN• Infomercials• Obama and Perot have

done it.• Internet (age of blogging

and chain emails)

Candidate Centered Politics (Continued)

• Televised Debates• 1st in 1960• Richard Nixon and JFK• JFK had make-up• Nixon didn’t shave• Radio listeners felt Nixon

won the debate• TV viewers sided with

Kennedy• Looks and personality

important for a President.

Debates Continued

• The debate only really helps the challenger OR the candidate trailing.

• The favorite candidate has nothing to gain from them.

• The Debate is the perfect time for a candidate to show their personality and likeability.

• They can use commercials to get out their message

• See reading on “Killer Question” and “Mad as Hell revolt at the Ballot Box”

What decides Presidential Elections?

• There have been more registered Democrats than GOP in modern history.

• Why don’t Dems always win?• Democrats aren’t traditionally as loyal to their party as

Republicans• GOP has TRADITIONALLY done better with

Independent voters• GOP voters demographically are more likely to turnout

(see chapter 6 if you have questions)• Bottom line; candidate centered voting and salient issues

are what decides elections• “It’s the economy stupid!” James Carville 1992

What does the electorate look like?

Getting elected to Congress

• # 1 Factor in determining Congressional elections is INCUMBENCY!!

• Advantages of incumbents are;• Sophomore Surge; Incumbents

usually win more MORE votes the second time around

• Campaigns are personalized• Name recognition• Legislators are tied to LOCAL

concerns• Franking Privilege• Mostly true in the HOUSE

House reelection is easier than senate reelection. Why?

• Senators have to campaign across and entire diverse state

• House districts are usually homogenous and drawn to favor one of the two parties.

• States are geographically bigger therefore harder to visit

• Senators have to speak to national issues/not local concerns

Incumbents Always win!

Hey…must be the money!

Where does the financial advantage come from?

Just how much does it cost?

District Boundaries

• Effect outcomes• Malapportionment: • Districts have vastly different populations• “rotten Burroughs”• Gerrymandering:• Districts are drawn to favor one party of the other• Are these legal?• Supreme Court Ruled in Westberry v Sanders and Baker vs. Carr

about them• Districts must be roughly the same size• Gerrymandering should not be based off race• http://www.pbs.org/wnet/need-to-know/video/drawing-the-lines-

parties-fight-for-redistricting-power/4756/

Is there anything wrong with this Picture?

So when do you want to run for Congress?

• Open seats are the most competitive

• Vacated seat by retirement, arrest, or vacancy.

• MUCH $ spent in these contests

Money in Presidential Elections

• • Primaries• Part public/part private• (Federal matching money)

Must raise money in 20 different states to obtain matching dollars

• Money is very important in primaries where candidates need to highlight themselves against similar candidates.

Money in the General Election

• • Lots of $$$$ has been spent lately

• George W. Bush nearly $400 million in 2004

• Barack Obama 600 million

• Question; accept public money for general cycle(with a cap on spending) or accept UNLIMITED private funds

• McCain public/Obama private

Hard Money v. Soft Money• Limits by law for past

30 years• Money raised and

spent on candidates• Congressional and

Presidential elections• Money from public

sources

• No limits until ‘02• Money given to party

and PACs • Used for recruitment,

voter drives• Raised for one purpose…

Ends up in a campaign• Recent laws limiting

Finance Rules

• 1974 Campaign Reform Law

• Limit on donations $1,000 (hard money)

• Corporations and unions have to form PAC’s to contribute money

• PAC requirements;• 50 members• Give to 5 different federal

candidates• No more than $5,000 per

election per candidate and no more than $15,000 per year to any party (hard money)

• LOOP HOLE…soft money…money for “Party building activities”unlimited

2002 McCain/Feingold Reforms

• Bipartisan effort to “clean up” fund raising

• #1 objective; end soft money

• Raised hard money to $2,000 max

• Outside Groups cannot run TV ads 30 days before election

• Results?• Did it work?• Which party

benefited?• Loopholes?• 527 groups• Constitutionality?• Freedom of Speech?

Citizens United vs. FEC

• Controversy of the airing of the movie “Hillary”

• An anti-Clinton film aired during the Democratic Primaries

• Was stopped by FEC because it violated the 30 day rule put in place by McCain Feingold

• The US Supreme Court struck down that provision of the law

• “Banning the film violated first amendment protections of free-speech”

• Future implications?

FEC FAQ’s

• http://www.fec.gov/ans/answers_general.shtml