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Presented by Kai Kaiser, Senior Economist, Public Sector Group, World Bank (Stephane Guimbert, Sophal Ear, Verena Fritz) Applied Inclusive Growth Analysis Joint Vienna Institute Day 4, July 2, 2009. Cambodia: Good enough governance for sectoral growth?. Growth Paradox?. Rapid Growth - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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November 4, 2008 1
Cambodia: Good enough governance for
sectoral growth?Presented by Kai Kaiser, Senior Economist,
Public Sector Group, World Bank(Stephane Guimbert, Sophal Ear, Verena Fritz)
Applied Inclusive Growth Analysis
Joint Vienna InstituteDay 4, July 2, 2009
2
Growth Paradox?• Rapid Growth
– Garments Success Story• Growth Sustainability Concerns
– International Competition– Challenge of Diversification
• Weak Governance– Weak Aggregate Indicators– Self-reported by firms
…consolidation of ruling party/stability after 1998…first LDC to join WTO (2004)
3
growing with four fragile engines1
13
28
20
13
26
0
25
50
75
100
1998-2006
Other
Hotel /Transports
Construction /Real Estate
Garment
Crops
Contribution to growth (%)
Crops: rain-fed; mainly rice
Garments: main (only?) export; mainly to US market; slow growth in 2007 with competition from Vietnam; further competition (inc. China) in the future?
Real estate / construction: very rapid growth, especially in Phnom Penh; talks of a bubble
Tourism: rapid growth. Initially mainly to Siem Reap and Angkor – gradually to Phnom Penh and Sihanoukville, with further potential
Legacies of “extractive” forestry “dis-saving” in 1990s
Good enough governance for sectoral growth?
4
reaching new heights?
310
550
1,513
725
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Income per capita (2007 $)
Good enough governance for sectoral growth?
5
weak governance
6
corruption & governance2
LicensesCost finance
TransportTax rates
Tax admin Legal systemCustomsAccess finance
Labor reg.
LandTelecom
Skills
Electricity
Macro instability
Crime, Theft
Regulatory uncertainty
Anti-competitive / informal pract.
Corruption
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
2003/04
20
07
/08
Sources: Investment climate surveys in Cambodia
Major obstacles to business, as reported by firms established in Cambodia
7
Growth Analysis Approach• CEM
– Range of background papers – Complementary governance & political-economy analysis
• Unbundle paradox?– Government-donor roundtable 2/2009
• What were drivers to growth?• What are challenges to sustainability?• What are binding constraints and policy options?
8
what is really binding?
–Governance (high informal taxation of higher rents created by capital investment; property rights)–Poor complementary inputs (electricity and water; skills; coordination issues)
No capital-intensive or processing
industry
–Coordination / information (on markets, technologies)–Incentives for innovators (both formal incentives – e.g. standards, trademarks – as well as informal – scaling up means becoming a target of corruption)–Access to finance for locally-generated projects (in agriculture; for SMEs)
No sustained diversification
–Entry costs (in terms of regulations and corruption)–Limited benefits of formalization (weak coordination; limited access to finance)
Large informal economy
2
9
Governance & Political-Economy Analysis Approach
• Focus on selection of promising sectors– National plans, development partner efforts…
• Understand sectoral governance & growth– Nature of state-elite & business relationships– Drivers of growth?– Strategies to manage business environment across value
chain– Drawn on country specialist (Sophal Ear)– Process of discovery?
10
Sectoral governance for growth?
Emerging?
Successful
2
Stunted?
Garments
Rice
Livestock
11
Garments• International Drivers
– Quotas for labor standards (US brokered, until 2004 for garments; ILO monitoring still ongoing)
– Strong international presence in 300+ establishments (95% +)• Domestic Collective Action
– Garment Manufacturers Association (GMAC)– Relationship w/ Ministry of Commerce, Labor Intensive Profile of Sector– International Chambers of Commerce
• Open Issues– Sustainability concerns w/ international competition– Squeezing the golden goose?– Value chain limited to assembly
12
Rice• International Drivers
– Increase in food prices– Future Everything but Arms (EU Zero Tariffs for LDCs)
• Only Sanitary & Phytosanitary• Domestic Collective Action
– Fragmented, Limited Collective Voice– Green Trade (state body) & National Cambodian Rice Millers now have
export waver (100 tons+)• Status
– Mainly domestic padi production, processed reflows from neighboring countries
– Very limited finance into rice processing– Concerns about ability of Cambodian supply chain to deliver quality
13
Livestock• International Drivers
– Increase in food prices– Malaysian investment (failed)
• Domestic Collective Action– Very Fragmented, Limited Collective Voice– Some entry attempt by okhna
• Status– Failure of previous venture (Mong Retth, Malaysians)– Procdution localized, dominate by cattle rustling, high
transactions costs across value chain to Vietnam/Thailnd
14
A Strategy for Policy Actions in the Cambodia Setting
• Potential Sector Profits/Rents Insufficient– Sum of poor governance manifests itself on various links of
the value chain– Export opportunities/prices
• Promote Demand Side/Collective Action– Business Organizations (Mandatory/Sectoral “Monopoly”)
• External Drivers– Internal National Regimes– Pressure for domestic “compliance”
November 4, 2008 Good enough governance for sectoral growth?
15
Open issues…• Integrity of governance & growth narrative
– Limited selection of sectors (successful & unsuccessful)– Replicability of garments wrt to different sectoral value
chains
• Multi-sectoral state growth champions?– Focal point acts to enforce credible business
environment (pending systematic change)• Captured/Self-serving institutions• Capacity/incentives for this type of institutions
• Potential discovery of oil & gas– Impacts on drivers of growth– Concentrated rents & incentives for state
Conclusions
• Binding constraints lens provides useful disciplining device in weak-institutional setting like Cambodia where everything can be perceived constraint
• Limited binding constraints may be politically counterintuitive…– Temporal, Need to be forward looking, Balance path,
perception of all eggs in one basket• Value of looking at sector constraints• Timing
– Impacts of Global Economic Crisis…
July 2, 2009 Cambodia Growth 16
Q & A
Selected References
World Bank, (2009), Sustaining Rapid Growth in a Challenging Environment”, www.worldbank.org/kh/growth
Ear, Sophal, (2009), Sowing and Sewing Growth: The Political Economy of Rice and Garments in Cambodia, Palo Alto, CA: Stanford Center for International Development Working Paper, No. 384
Guimbert, Stephane, 2009, Cambodia 1998-2008: An Episode of Rapid Growth, Working Paper (draft)
17