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California’s Remaining Health Coverage Gaps: Causes and State Solutions
Laurel Lucia
Director, Health Care Program
UC Berkeley Labor Center
Miranda Dietz
CalSIM Project Director
UC Center Sacramento
January 23, 2018
Without further state action, how many and which Californians will be uninsured in 2020 and 2023?
2
Health insurance matters
• For individuals
– Protects from financial distress
– Encourages earlier diagnosis
– Improves use of preventive services
– Reduces preventable mortality
• For society
“In our home, every person should have access to quality, affordable health care.”
- Gov. Newsom
Photo credit: Covered CA
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17.6%
10.4%
2012 2016
Uninsurance rate ages 0-64
California’s implementation of the ACA resulted in record-low uninsurance rates for the non-elderly
4Source: UC Berkeley UCLA CalSIM version 2.2
California Simulation of Insurance Markets (CalSIM) version. 2.2
• UCLA-UCB microsimulation model projects California individuals’ and firms’ decision making under various policy scenarios
• Support for CalSIM from:
– Covered California
– California Health Care Foundation
– The California Endowment
– The California Wellness Foundation
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CalSIM: creating the input data set to look like California
Assign firms
California Health Interview Survey
Reflect CA pop.
Medical Expenditure Panel Survey
California Employer Health Benefits Survey/ Employment Development Department data
CalSIM input data set
Individualspart of families part of firms
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CalSIM: model firm and family decisions
CalSIM input data set
IndividualBehavior
Output data
Employer coverage
Medi-Cal
Indiv. Mkt
Uninsured
Offers
Does not offer
FirmBehavior
Employer coverage
7
Individual mandate penalty eliminated by Congress
Effective 2019 tax year
8
Penalty elimination: what does it mean for California?
2020 2023
Individual Market -320,000 to -210,000 -440,000 to -280,000
Medi-Cal -290,000 to -60,000 -410,000 to -290,000
Employer-Sponsored Insurance
+110,000 to +150,000 +40,000 to +70,000
Uninsured (Total) +150,000 to +450,000 +490,000 to +790,000
+ 8% to 10% premium increase
Enrollment change due to zero individual mandate penalty, Californians age 0-64
9Source: UC Berkeley UCLA CalSIM version 2.2
Penalty elimination would have the biggest impact on individual market enrollment
-10.1%
-1.9%
0.7%
-14.4%
-3.9%
0.3%
Individual market Medi-Cal Employer-sponsored insurance
Percent change in enrollment due to zero individual mandate penalty, Californians age 0-64
2020 2023
10Source: UC Berkeley UCLA CalSIM version 2.2
Without further state action, the uninsurance rate will rise
17.6%
10.4%
2012 2016
Uninsurance rate ages 0-64
11.7%12.9%
2020 2023
11Source: UC Berkeley UCLA CalSIM version 2.2
Other potential changes could affect number of uninsured but are not modeled in CalSIM
Examples:
• Recession
• U.S. Department of Homeland Security proposed ‘Public charge’ rule
Could lead to misinformation, confusion, and fear about enrollment in public programs
Causing chilling effect on Medi-Cal enrollment among immigrants and citizens in households with non-citizens, including among those not legally subject to the public charge test
For estimates related to proposed ‘public charge’ rule see: Ponce NA, Lucia L, and Shimada T, Proposed Changes to Immigration Rules Would Cost California Jobs, Harm Public Health, UCLA Center for Health Policy Research, December 2018.
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Uninsured are more likely to be Latino and low-income
Similar to CA population Differ from CA population
87%
68% 65%
52%
86%
73%
40% 36%
Self-reported healthstatus: excellent, very
good, or good
Age 19-64, working Latino Income under 200% FPL
Uninsured in 2020 All Californians age 0-64
13Source: UC Berkeley UCLA CalSIM version 2.2
Undocumented Californians will continue to make up the largest group of uninsured
1,480,000 1,500,000
900,000 1,060,000
520,000610,000
500,000590,000
610,000680,000
2020 2023
Eligible for Employer Coverage
Not Eligible for Subsidies Due to Income
Eligibile for Subsidies Through Covered CA
Eligible for Medi-Cal
Undocumented
Uninsured by eligibility category, age 0-64
Source: UC Berkeley UCLA CalSIM version 2.2
4.02 m4.44 m
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What are the reasons for lacking insurance?
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Most undocumented adults are low-income
65%
23%
35%
77%
Undocumented Citizen and documented
139%+ FPL
0-138% FPL
Source: Nadereh Pourat, Six Facts About Undocumented Californians: Analysis of 2015-2016 California Health Interview Survey, California Health Care Foundation Snapshot, June 2018. 16
90% of low-income undocumented adults lack insurance coverage
90%
10%
Undocumented Citizen anddocumented
Notes: Low-income is defined as family income at or below 138% FPL. With the exception of undocumented adults, Californians with incomes up to 138% FPL are eligible for Medi-Cal. Undocumented adults reporting Medi-Cal coverage are assumed to have restricted-scope Medi-Cal and are considered uninsured.
Uninsured rate by citizenship status, low-income adults, California, 2015-2016
17Source: Nadereh Pourat, Six Facts About Undocumented Californians: Analysis of 2015-2016 California Health Interview Survey, California Health Care Foundation Snapshot, June 2018.
Affordability concerns can be a barrier to enrollment
• Cost is the top reason for lacking insurance among the uninsured eligible for Covered California, regardless of income level
Source: California Health Interview Survey 2016. 18
Challenges with affording premiums and out-of-pocket costs remain
Even with ACA subsidies, combined premium & out-of-pocket spending can be
• Over 10% of income for some individuals with median health use
• 20-30% for some with very high medical use
• Some face premiums equal to more than 20% of income for a Bronze plan with a $6,300 deductible
Subsidy-eligible: Earn too much for subsidies:
Source: Lucia L and Jacobs K, Towards Universal Health Coverage: California Policy Options for Improving Individual Market Affordability and Enrollment, UC Berkeley Labor Center, March 2018.
19
Subsidy-eligible individuals’ premium contributions as percentage of income
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
1 51 101 151 201 251 301 351
AC
A’s
max
imu
m p
rem
ium
co
ntr
ibu
tio
n a
s %
of
inco
me
Income as percentage of federal poverty level
Single $42k - $335/mo.Family of 4 $86k - $684/mo.
Single $30k - $203/mo.
Annual family income and net monthly premium after subsidies for 2nd lowest cost silver plan:
Example: Married couple with income equivalent to 450% FPL
• Married couple, both age 55 and self-employed, living in San Mateo, and earning $73,080 annually (450% FPL)
• $1,200 per month total for the lowest cost Bronze plan offered, or nearly 20% of the couple’s income
• Plus any out-of-pocket spending on health care costs under the plan’s $6,300 deductible
21
Source: Lucia L and Jacobs K, Towards Universal Health Coverage: California Policy Options for Improving Individual Market Affordability and Enrollment, UC Berkeley Labor Center, March 2018.
Photo credit: Transient musket (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)
Family premiums increased nearly 6 times faster than inflation since 2002
13.4%
248.8%
2.8%
44.4%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Cumulative Premium Growth for California Employer-Sponsored Family Coverage Compared to Inflation, 2002-2017
Source: California Employer Health Benefits Survey 22
State Options: Universal Coverage
23
U.S. spends more and gets less – state considering single payer or other unified financing approach
24Source: Schneider et al. Mirror, Mirror 2017: International Comparison Reflects Flaws and Opportunities for Better U.S. Health Care, The Commonwealth Fund, July 2017.
State has options in near-term to move closer to universal coverage and control costs
Without federal approval, California could:
• Expand Medi-Cal to all low-income residents regardless of immigration status
• Provide state subsidies to improve affordability of individual market premiums and out-of-pocket costs
• Establish a state individual mandate penalty
• Continue to support and strengthen outreach and enrollment efforts
• Implement state policies designed to slow the rate of healthcare cost growth or reduce healthcare costs while also improving quality
25
Medi-Cal for undocumented Californians
• 955,000 adults in restricted-scope Medi-Cal could be automatically transitioned to full benefits
• Legislative Analyst’s Office estimates more than 1 million undocumented adults would enroll at state cost of $3.0 billion
• Governor’s budget proposal: $200 million in state funds to cover 138,000 young adults ages 19-25 in 2019-2020
Sources: DHCS, Medi-Cal Monthly Enrollment Fast Facts - June 2018. California LAO, Estimating the Cost of Expanding Full-Scope Medi-Cal Coverage to Undocumented Adults, May 2018. Governor Newsom, 2019-2020 Governor's Budget, January 2019.
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Photo credit: Carlos Ebert (CC BY 2.0)
Provide subsidies to make individual market insurance more affordable
• Provide additional premium and out-of-pocket assistance to individuals with income under 400% FPL who are already eligible for ACA subsidies
• Cap premium contributions for individuals who earn too much to be eligible for ACA subsidies
• State cost estimates range depending on details
– Preliminary estimates for Covered California AB 1810 Affordability Workgroup process range from less than $500 million to $2+ billion
– Governor’s budget proposal allocates approximately $500 million
Sources: Covered California, Options to Improve Affordability in California’s Individual Health Insurance Market, Working Draft, January 16, 2019. Governor Newsom, 2019-2020 Governor's Budget, January 2019. 27
Individual mandate: the California edition?
• Governor’s budget proposes penalty modeled after federal requirement, estimates $500 million in revenues
• MA, NJ, DC, VT already have state individual mandates in place or being implemented
?
Sources: Levitis J, State Individual Mandates, October 2018. Governor Newsom, 2019-2020 Governor's Budget, January 2019. 28
Continue strong outreach and enrollment efforts
Photo credit: Covered California.
29
State policies and actions to slow health care cost growth while improving quality
Examples:
• Antitrust enforcement
• Improved transparency
• Increased negotiating leverage for public and private purchasers
• Insurance rate review
• Provider rate regulation
30
Summary
• If no state action taken, 4+ m uninsured by 2020
• Undocumented largest group
• Affordability concerns persist
• Long-term: single payer or other unified financing approach
• Short term: state can take steps without federal approval
– Medi-Cal for low-income undocumented adults
– State subsidies to improve affordability
– State individual mandate penalty
– Outreach and enrollment efforts
– Policies that help control cost growth
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Key Resources
Recent and forthcoming publications:
• California’s Health Coverage Gains to Erode Without Further State Action
• Proposed Changes to Immigration Rules Would Cost California Jobs, Harm Public Health
• Towards Universal Health Coverage: California Policy Options for Improving Individual Market Affordability and Enrollment
• Towards Universal Health Coverage: Expanding Medi-Cal to Low-Income Undocumented Adults (Forthcoming)
Other research:
http://laborcenter.berkeley.edu/topic/health-care/
https://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/Pages/home.aspx
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Contact
• Laurel Lucia, Health Care Program Director, UC Berkeley Labor Center, [email protected]
• Miranda Dietz, CalSIM Project Director, UC Berkeley Labor Center, [email protected]
Sign up to receive updates on our research: http://laborcenter.berkeley.edu/mailing/
Follow: @UCBLaborCenter
@UCLAchpr
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