California’s Climate InitiativeCalifornia’s Climate Initiative

2

Executive Order Established Statewide GHG Targets

By 2010, Reduce to 2000 Emission Levels*By 2020, Reduce to 1990 Emission Levels**By 2050, Reduce to 80% Below 1990 Levels

* Equals 60 Million Tons Emission Reductions, 11% Below BAU

** Equals 175 Million Tons Emission Reductions, 30% Below BAU

3

Climate Action TeamCalEPA Secretary Chairs the Team BT&H, CDFA, Resources, PUC, ARB, CIWMB, and CEC are RepresentedThe CAT Report:– Key Recommendations– Emission Reduction Strategies– Market-based Program– Scenario Analysis– Environmental Justice Considerations– Report to Governor and Legislature in March 2006 and

Biennially Thereafter

4

Key RecommendationsComing Soon…..Build on December 8 Draft Report– Mandatory Reporting– Early Action Credit– Investment Strategy– Public Goods Charge for Transportation

Modifications made as a Result of Public Comment15,000+ Commenters, Few Hundred that Contributed Substantive Comments

5

Strategies UnderwayMotor Vehicle Regulations Efficiency MeasuresRenewable Portfolio StandardCalifornia Solar InitiativeHydrogen HighwayGreen BuildingsRecycling and Waste Reduction

6

CAT Recommended Strategies

The CAT Recommends a Broad Range of Strategies including:– HFC Reductions– Forest Management– Water Use Efficiency– Appliance and Building Efficiency, Including

LSEs and Municipal Utilities– Smart Land Use– Conservation Tillage

7

Impacts on the California Economy in 2020

In 2004Without

StrategiesWith

Strategies Impacts % Change

Income 1,317 2,128 2,132 4 0.19

Jobs 16,460 20,704 20,787 83 0.40

8

Based on Best Available Information to Date, Implementation of These Strategies will Achieve the Governor’s Targets

9

Market-Based ProgramMarket-Based Program Integral To California’s Strategy For Reducing EmissionsNational Approach To Capping Emissions Within An International Framework Most Effective In The Absence Of National Action, California Can Lead By Example By Developing A Market-Based Program As A Model For National Action

10

Market-Based Program Design

Design Options– Scope: Which Sources To Cover– Distribute of Emission Allowances– Auction– Emission Offsets– Other: Banking; Compliance Tracking;

Gases To CoverFacility-Level Emissions Data Needed

11

Scenarios

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Year

CO

2 Em

issi

ons

(GtC

)

A1FiA2

A1

B2

A1TB1

Higher Emissions

Medium-high Emissions

Lower Emissions

Global Emission Scenarios: A1fi, A2, And B1Global Climate Models: GFDL, PCM, And Hadley3Temperature And Precipitation Downscaled To CaliforniaUse Of An Hydrological Model (VIC) To Produce The Needed Hydrological Products

-2

0

2

4

6

8

1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

Tem

pera

ture

Cha

nge

(o C)

Lower Emissions

Medium-highEmissions

Higher Emissions

Projected Annual Mean Temperatures In California

12

Coastal Sea Level

Projections For The 2070-2099 Period– 5 To 24 Inches (B1)– 7 To 30 Inches (A2)– 8 To 35 Inches (A1fi)

Salt Water Intrusion into Levees and Flooding Risks

Observed Changes

Projections of global mean sea level rise

13

Water Resources

Declining Snow Pack Will Aggravate The Already Overstretched Water Resources In The StateIncreased Flooding RiskPotential Up To 90 Percent Reductions Of April 1st Snow Levels

PCM B1

GFDL A2

14

Agriculture

Many Species Of Fruit Tress May Not Grow In The State Due The Lack Of Needed Winter Chill HoursSome Pests Such As The Cotton/Pink Bollworm (Pbw) Will Increase Their Ranges The effect of total seasonal pest PBW larval densities (larval

days) under current weather (d) and with 2.5 degrees C (f) increase in daily temperature

total larval days (0.01 – 920)+2.5°Ctotal larval days (0.02 – 917)

d. f.

Low High

total larval days (0.01 – 920)+2.5°Ctotal larval days (0.02 – 917)

d. f.

Low High

15

Forest and Natural Landscapes

Changes In Vegetation Patterns Will OccurThe Alpine And SubalpineEcosystems Are Most SusceptibleIncreases In The Number Of Large Fires Almost By 35% By Mid-century And 55% By The End Of This Century Under The A2 ScenarioFire Impacts Are Less Severe Under The B1 Scenario (Lower Global Emissions)

Percent change in the expected minimum Number of large fires per year in California

16

Public Health

Increase Of Heat-related MortalityIt Will Be More Difficult To Comply With Ambient Air Quality Standards For Ozone

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Year

Day

s

A2

B1

0

200

400

600

800

S an F ranc is co F re sno S ac ram e nto S anB e rnand ino

L o s A ng e lo s

Exc

ess

Hea

t-re

late

d M

or

Base197 1-2000PCM B1

Had B 1

P C M A2

HAD A2

P C M A1 fi

Had A1 fi

Low T emperature S cenario (3-5 .4 ºF)

M edium T emperatu re S cenario (5 .5 -7 .9 ºF )

H igh T empera ture S cena rio (8 -10.4ºF )

H is to rica l 1971 -2000

Projected annual heat-related mortality for 2070-2099 and historic mortality for 1971-200

Projected days with meteorology conducive to exceedancesOf the 1-hour state ambient air quality standard for ozone

17

ElectricityAnnual Hydropower Generation Will Decrease If Climate Change Reduces Precipitation Levels

Electricity Demand Will Increase With Temperature From 3 To 20 % By The End Of This Century

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Non-Exceedence Probability

GW

H/y

r

GFDL A2

Historical Climatic Contitions

18

Next Two Years

Climate Action Team Will Work Together to Implement Emission Reduction Strategies Market-Based Options Evaluated and Recommendations MadeRefine Economic AnalysisContinue Scenario Analysis including Adaptation Options