PPIC.ORG

California Voter and Party Profiles Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman, and Rachel Ward

Voter registration is up; the share of independents has increased.Almost eight in ten eligible adults (79.1%) are registered to vote in California; this is a notable increase fromthe registration rate in 2015 (72.7%), the year before the previous presidential election. The share of the19.9 million registered voters who are Democrats (43.1%) is similar (43.2% in 2015), while the share ofRepublicans (23.6%) has declined (from 28.0%). The share who say they are independent (also known as“decline to state” or “no party preference” voters) has been increasing and is now 28.3%, up from 23.6% in2015. Our surveys indicate that 45% of those we consider most likely to vote are Democrats, while 27% areRepublicans and 23% are independents.

Most independent likely voters lean toward a major party.In our surveys over the past year, independent likely voters have been more likely to lean Democratic (43%)than Republican (31%); 26% did not lean toward either major party. These shares have shifted since 2015,when 37% leaned Democratic, 34% leaned Republican, and 29% did not lean toward either party.Independent likely voters are more likely to be moderate (44%) than liberal (28%) or conservative (28%).

Republicans are more ideologically cohesive than Democrats, but the partisan dividecan be stark.Three in four (75%) Republican likely voters say they are conservative, while 62% of Democratic likely votersdescribe themselves as liberal. Ideological divisions are especially evident in beliefs about the role ofgovernment. For example, when asked whether the federal government is responsible for making sure allAmericans have health coverage, 80% of Democratic likely voters say it is a federal responsibility, while77% of Republicans say health care is not government’s responsibility. Independents lean toward it beinggovernment’s responsibility (51%; 40% not government’s responsibility).

Likely voters are disproportionately white; half of Democratic likely voters are non-white.Whites make up only 42% of California’s adult population but comprise 58% of likely voters. In contrast,Latinos make up 35% of the state’s adult population but only 19% of likely voters. The shares of AsianAmerican (13%) and African American (6%) likely voters are proportionate to their shares of the state’s adultpopulation—15% for Asian Americans and 6% for African Americans. Half (51%) of Democratic likely votersare white; 24% are Latino, 12% are Asian American, and 10% are African American. An overwhelmingmajority (76%) of Republican likely voters are white; relatively few are Latino (11%), Asian American (8%), orAfrican American (1%). Among independents, 51% are white, 20% are Asian American, 19% are Latino,and 6% are African American.

Demographic characteristics of likely voters vary across parties.Democratic likely voters are more likely to be women (61%) than men (39%), while independents (55% men,45% women) and Republicans (52% men, 48% women) are more evenly divided. Independents (44%) andDemocrats (43%) are more likely to be college graduates than Republicans are (34%). Three in ten Democrats(30%) have household incomes under $40,000, compared to one in four independents (25%) and two in tenRepublicans (21%). Democrats (23%) and independents (23%) are more likely to be young adults (ages 18 to34) than are Republicans (12%), while Republicans are more likely to be ages 55 and older (60%) than areDemocrats (46%) or independents (39%).

Democrats and Republicans tend to live in different parts of the state.The regional distribution of likely voters mirrors that of the state’s overall adult population (26% Los Angeles,20% San Francisco Bay Area, 17% Central Valley, 17% Orange/San Diego, 11% Inland Empire, 9% other counties).Most Democrats live in Los Angeles County (30%) or the San Francisco Bay Area (26%), while most Republicanslive in the Central Valley (23%), Orange and San Diego Counties (22%), or Los Angeles County (18%).Independents are most likely to live in Los Angeles County (26%) or the San Francisco Bay Area (26%).

AUGUST 2019

CALIFORNIA VOTER AND PARTY PROFILES AUGUST 2019

PPIC.ORG

California voter and party profiles

Likely voters Likely voter party registration

Dem Rep Ind Other

Political ideology

Liberal 37% 62% 6% 28% 26%

Moderate 29 25 19 44 37

Conservative 34 13 75 28 37

Strength of affiliation among major party voters

Strong – 66 66 – –

Not very strong – 32 32 – –

Don’t know – 2 2 – –

Major party leanings among independent voters

Democratic Party – – – 43 –

Republican Party – – – 31 –

Neither/Don’t know – – – 26 –

Race/Ethnicity

African American 6 10 1 6 3

Asian American 13 12 8 20 8

Latino 19 24 11 19 14

White 58 51 76 51 65

Other/Multiracial 4 3 3 4 9

Gender Men 47 39 52 55 62

Women 53 61 48 45 38

Education

No college 18 19 18 17 13

Some college 41 37 48 38 43

College graduate 41 43 34 44 44

Income

Under $40,000 27 30 21 25 27

$40,000 to under $80,000

27 27 29 26 24

$80,000 or more 46 43 50 48 49

Age

18 to 34 20 23 12 23 25

35 to 54 33 32 29 39 43

55 and older 47 46 60 39 32

Region

Central Valley 17 14 23 14 19

Inland Empire 9 8 12 8 13

Los Angeles County 26 30 18 26 19

Orange/San Diego Counties

17 14 22 18 16

San Francisco Bay Area

22 26 14 26 22

Other 9 8 10 8 10

Percent of all likely voters – 45 27 23 5

Notes: “Likely voters” are registered voters meeting criteria on interest in politics, attention to issues, voting behavior, and intention to vote. For a full description of these criteria and regional definitions, visit www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/SurveyMethodology.pdf. For race and ethnicity, results are presented for non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic Asian Americans, non-Hispanic African Americans, and non-Hispanic “other race” and multiracial adults.

Sources: Nine PPIC Statewide Surveys from September 2018 to July 2019, including 15,165 adults and 9,651 likely voters. California Secretary of State, Report of Registration, February 2019. US Census Bureau, 2013–17 American Community Survey.

Contact: surveys@ppic.org

Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation