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Calculation of Quarterly Household Final Consumption Expenditure
Estimates for Scotland
Kenny Grant
Overview• GDP(E)
– Households– Non-Profit Institutions– General Government– Gross Capital Formation
• HHFCE contributes > 60% towards GDP(E)
• Consumer Trends– Current prices, Chained volume measure, Implied deflators– Unadjusted and adjusted for seasonality– Yearly– Quarterly– 12 COICOP categories + Net Tourism
Sources
• Expenditure & Food Survey
– Yearly publication from ONS– Scottish and UK expenditure– >280 individual recordings of expenditure– 3 year moving average– 2002/03 – 2004/05, 2007– FES 1998/99, 1999/00
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Year
Wee
kly
Ave
rag
e H
ou
seh
old
Exp
end
itu
re (
£)Food & non-alcoholicdrinks
Alcoholic drink,tobacco & narcotics
Clothing & footwear
Housing (net)1, fuel &power
Household goods &services
Health
Transport
Communication
Recreation & culture
Education
Restaurants & hotels
Miscellaneous goods& services
Sources
• Current Prices• Not Seasonally Adjusted• Quarterly Data• 12 COICOP + Net Tourism
Consumer Trends
Household Figures• Scottish Mid-Year Estimates/Projections
- GRO• UK Mid-Year Estimates/Projections
- Communities.gov.uk
Assumptions• Scottish % Hotels & Catering used to apportion UK Net
Tourism Expenditure for Scotland
• Difference in EFS and National Accounts breakdown from COICOP beyond top 12– Imputed Rental (4. Housing)– Life Insurance (12. Miscellaneous)
Methodology• EFS financial year series created from 1998/99 to 2007/08
– Scotland and UK– 12 COICOP level
• Scottish household proportions for each year for each COICOP=
Scottish average weekly expenditure X
# Scottish Households
• Divided by UK equivalent
• = Scottish % of UK HHFCE
Methodology• Convert financial year Scottish Proportions to a quarterly series
– Cubic Splines
• UK National Accounts data X
Scottish % of UK expenditure =
Quarterly Scottish HHFCE– (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
• Seasonally adjusted series– X-12-ARIMA– Comparable series to UK national Accounts– All series showed signs of seasonality and were adjusted (except
Education)
Clothing & Footwear
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600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Expenditure
SA
Restaurants & Hotels
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Expenditure
SA
Transport
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1000
1500
2000
2500
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3500
Expenditure
SA
Education
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60
80
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Expenditure
Results• Series of 6 tables
– Scottish HHFCE– UK HHFCE– Scottish Proportions of UK HHFCE– Scottish HHFCE (Seasonally Adjusted)– UK HHFCE (Seasonally Adjusted)– Scottish Proportions of UK HHFCE (Seasonally Adjusted)
– Calendar year– Financial year– Quarterly
Future Work• Updates
– Quarterly National Accounts (Consumer Trends)– EFS– Household Estimates/Projections
• COICOP Breakdown– Individual goods and services– Imputed Rentals / Life Insurance
• Net Tourism
Calculation of Quarterly Household Final Consumption Expenditure
Estimates for Scotland
Kenny Grant
