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Calculando pasivo laboral. Panorama general de Mexico. IMSS. Scenario 1: 40 years of service with 10 years in AFORE. Scenario 2: 40 years of service with 20 years in AFORE. Scenario 3: 40 years of service with 40 years in AFORE. Assumptions. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Calculando pasivo laboral
Panorama general de Mexico
Distribution of Economically Active Population 2010
IMSS30.1%
ISSFAM0.6%
StateISSSTE1.9%
No Social Security62.8%
PEMEX0.3%
ISSSTE4.4%
IMSSISSSTEISSFAMStateISSSTEPEMEXNo Social Security
Participacion 1980-2011
26.5%27.0%27.5%28.0%28.5%29.0%29.5%30.0%30.5%31.0%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Crude Death Rate (CDR) and Crude Birth Rate (CBR) in Mexico 1895-2045
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1885 1905 1925 1945 1965 1985 2005 2025 2045
Cru
de R
ates
Per
100
0
CBRCDR
IMSS
Total retirees under IMSS 1944-2011
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Real Minimum Wage in Mexico 1969-2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
Inde
x
Distribution of workers under IMSS 2010
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-65 65+
Ley 95Ley 73
Payment of Pension under Ley 73 2009-2011
0
2,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
12,000,000,000
Dec-08 Jul-09 Jan-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12
Valu
e in
Cur
rent
Pes
os
Payment of Pension under Ley 97 2009-2011
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
Dec-08 Jul-09 Jan-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12
Valu
e in
Cur
rent
Pes
os
Scenario 1: 40 years of service with 10 years in AFORE
Base SalaryMonthly
Money in AFORE Pension (women) Pension (men) IMSS pension
$8,000 $92,367 $471 $540 $7,010
$15,000 $173,189 $883 $1,013 $13,116
$25,000 $288,648 $1,472 $1,689 $21,861
$50,000 $405,261 $2,067 $2,371 $22,559
$100,000 $405,261 $2,067 $2,371 $22,559
Scenario 2: 40 years of service with 20 years in AFORE
Base Salary monthly Money in AFORE Pension (women) Pension (men) IMSS pension
$8,000 $273,452 $1,395 $1,600 $7,010
$15,000 $512,723 $2,615 $3,000 $13,116
$25,000 $854,538 $4,358 $5,000 $21,861
$50,000 $1,199,771 $6,119 $7,020 $22,559
$100,000 $1,199,771 $6,119 $7,020 $22,559
Scenario 3: 40 years of service with 40 years in AFORE
Base Salary monthly Money in AFORE Pension (women) Pension (men) IMSS pension
$8,000 $1,198,335 $6,111 $7,011 $7,010
$15,000 $2,246,878 $11,459 $13,146 $13,116
$25,000 $3,744,796 $19,098 $21,910 $21,861
$50,000 $5,257,694 $26,814 $30,761 $22,559
$100,000 $5,257,694 $26,814 $30,761 $22,559
Assumptions• (1) There is no entry into the system since July 1, 1997• (2) People are not leaving the private sector to join the public
sector• (3) The disability experience of the future will be the same as that
of 2001-2010• (4) The mortality experience of the future retirees will be the same
as that of 2001-2010• (5) The rate of wage growth is 1 percent real• (6) The rate of growth of pension paid is the same as the wage
growth rate• (7) Those getting less than the minimum salary at retirement will
opt for the minimum pension
IMSS deficit as a percentage of GDP
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
1.40%
1.60%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
left5%
IMSS
right95%
ISSSTE
Number of Workers Per Retiree 1960-2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
19 23 27 31 35 39 43 47 51 55 59 63 67 71 75 79
Age
Transition Generation New Generation
Age Distribution ISSSTE Workers
Assumptions• (1) There is no entry into the system any more• (2) Persons who leave the job permanently will follow the same
pattern as the actual experience of 1997-2010• (3) The disability experience of the future will be the same as that
of 1997-2010• (4) The mortality experience of the future retirees will be the same
as that of EMSSA 2009• (5) The interest rate paid by the recognition bond is 3.5 percent real• (6) The rate of wage growth is 1 percent real• (7) Those getting less than 2 times the minimum salary at
retirement will opt for the minimum pension
ISSSTE deficit as a percent of GDP
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
0
50000000
100000000
150000000
200000000
250000000
300000000
350000000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
left5%
ISSSTE
right95%
IMSS-RJP
New Employees IMSS-RJP 1977-2011
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Deficit of IMSS-RJP as a percentage of GDP
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
0.50%
0.60%
0.70%
0.80%
0.90%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Estados
Aguascalientes, Baja California Norte, Campeche, Cuahuila, Colima, Chiapas, Chihuahua, Durango, Guanajuato,
Guerrero, Jalisco, México (Estado), Michoacán, Nayarit, Oaxaca, Puebla, Querétaro, San Luís Potosí, Sonora,
Tabasco, Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Yucatán and Zacatecas.
Year Retirees Annual Pension Per person
2007 115,317 $91,713
2008 123,389 $96,120
2009 132,730 $104,071
2010 143,398 $109,996
2011 154,656 $120,500
State Pension deficits as a percent of GDP
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
0
20000000
40000000
60000000
80000000
100000000
120000000
140000000
160000000
180000000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
left5%
States
right95%
PEMEX
PEMEX workers and retirees
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Workers
Retirees
ISSFAM
PEMEX deficit as a percentage of GDP
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
0.50%
0.60%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Years of service Months of salary
5 years 6 months
6 years 7 months
7years 8 months
8 years 10 months
9 years 12 months
10 years 14 months
11 years 16 months
12 years 18 months
13 years 20 months
14 years 22 months
15 years 24 months
16 years 26 months
17 years 28 months
18 years 30 months
19 years 32 months
Entry Age
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-48Age Group
Distribution of age at retirement
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85
age
perc
ent r
etiri
ng
ISSFAMIMSS
Armed Forces 1989-2010
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Military as a percent of labor force
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Retired ISSFAM Monthy 1999-2010
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Mar-97 Jul-98 Dec-99 Apr-01 Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05
Oct-06 Feb-08 Jul-09 Nov-10 Apr-12
ISSFAM deficit as a percentage of GDP
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Resumen
Projected Uncovered Deficits of Government Pension Liability
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Defic
its a
s a p
erce
ntag
e of
201
0 GD
P
IMSS
ISSSTE
States
RJP
PEMEX
ISSFAM
Total Pension Liability in 2010 Pesos
0
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
700,000,000
800,000,000
900,000,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060