Endemic Urban Riots – Methods, Impacts and Implication for Child Poverty and Vulnerability

Jaideep Gupte, Patricia Justino, Jean-Pierre Tranchant

Session C1: Inclusion and Access to Services Presentation: 2

Impacts of endemic urban violence on children

Children are often the most vulnerable to urban violence– Injuries can occur inside the home, and outside,

during work, school and play.– Injuries are one of the most common reasons

for school absenteeism and missing work

We know that impacts go well beyond physical injury and hurt; wider social, psychological and economic costs

Fear, anxiety and powerlessness are very significant predictors of short and long term illbeing and poor outcomes.

Rioting in India

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Riots

Murders

Banditry

India

Source: Crime in India, Govt of India, various years

Evidence from Maharashtra

307,731 km2

112,372,972 people

80.2% Hindu

10.6% Muslim

Districts with endemic riots

Mumbai

45 Survey neighbourhoods

- ‘Voting booth zones’ (groups of ~200 households) chosen to match most recent violence (based on pre-interviewing; media reports; studies)

- Higher number of sites with fewer HHs per site

- Randomisation ensured incidence and non-incidence sites

- Takes into account: incidence, endemic, criminality, administrative divisions and geographic regions.

- Random selection of 10% of households and mapping

Maharashtra Households Longitudinal Study on Welfareand Civil Violence (MHLS)

Data collected by the authors in 2010 and 2012

Survey of 1089 households in 45 neighbourhoods in 10 districts

Modules on violence and safety (experience and perceptions),

vulnerabilities, housing, social interactions, police, governance

In-depth qualitative interviews with one respondent per site

Extensive cartographic material of each site

Behavioural games

Victimization

Victimization measured at household level (although we gather external data at district and sub-district levels)

In the last 24 months, have any of the following event occurred in your neighbourhood? List includes riot, stone-pelting, public fight, tire burning, curfew.

In the last 24 months, have you or any member of the household experienced any of the following event? List includes health, economic, climatic shocks and crime and riots.

We tried to separate out the notions of occurrence of a riot and of household vulnerability to riots.

Proportion of children in sample (urban India)

4.6% are children <2 (4.6%)

10.7% are children <5 (9.7%)

31.8% are below 16 years old (30%)

36.2% are below 18 years old (34.1%)

Proportion of minors significantly lower among riot-affected households (32.2%) than among non riot-affected households (36.8%)

Access to Services

Median monthly income: Rs 5,000 (about £70)

Mean hours of running water: 3.75

Mean hours of electricity: 19

Toilets in home: 57%; community toilets: 27%, open defecation: 16%

Proportion of minors significantly lower among riot-affected households (32.2%) than among non riot-affected households (36.8%)

Mean size of dwelling: 60 square meters (16 in Mumbai/Thane)

Descriptive Statistics: Riot Victimization

1 in 5 sampled households reported a riot in their area in the last 2 years. Rioting is the most common form of civil violence together with stone- pelting (19%) and public fight (21%)

14% of respondents reported a curfew: sign of large scale riots

12.5 % of households declared they were affected by a riot

Of these, a large majority did not directly suffer from riots in terms of property damage or injuries (26 out of 136)

Victimization captures indirect consequences of rioting: fear, strained community relations, inability to go to work, get medicines/food in relation to curfew

Within the most 8 most affected neighbourhoods, victimization rate is 43% (never higher than 66.67%). Outside these neighbourhoods, 6%.

Causes of Riot Victimization

Physical vulnerability: e.g. hh living close to a likely riot spot, and/or to a crime hotspot, and/or in vulnerable dwelling. Neighbourhood spatial features also matter for explaining where riots happen (see our companion paper)

Social isolation: victimization decreases with household ability to receive aid from neighbours and friends during and after the riot (Tambiah 1996). Varshney (2002), Jha (2008), Berenschot (2011) point out that communities with strong and cross-cutting social interactions are better able to avoid episodes of violence

Economic vulnerability: households with savings and capacity to store food are better able to navigate periods of curfew and/or diffculty to go to work. At the neighbourhood level, strong apparent association between poverty and violence.

Identity markers: households with a particular identity may be targeted during riot, or excluded from solidarity efforts. Neighbourhoods with a particular identity mix (e.g. religious polarization or caste fragmentation) might be more prone to riots

Results and Implications

Not only physical hurt/injury; but wider lens needed to include psychological impacts and the more ‘mundane’ impacts (eg. curfews, rumours)

Social networks/characteristics matter for coping

Household characteristics matter

Locational characteristics matter (neighbourhood, and sub-neighbourhood)

Our Next steps:

…

Technical papers

Gupte, J., Justino, P. and Tranchant, J.P. 2012. Households Amidst Urban Riots: The Economic Consequences of Civil Violence in India - HiCN Working Paper #126

Gupte, J. 2012. The Agency and Governance of Urban Battlefields: How Riots Alter Our Understanding of Adequate Urban Living - HiCN Working Paper 122

Both available on the IDS website