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HM He ynacTcH ll06HTbCH CKOJIbKO-HHOYllb 3aMeTHoro YJIyqllleHHH 3KOHOshy
8 OTCYTCTBHe CKO~bKO-HHOY)lb 3aMeTHOrO nporpecca B PCIliCHHH OllHOrO H3 OCHOBshyHblX acneKTOB 3HepreTHleCKoi npoOeMbi 3aBHCHMOCTH CIlIA OT HMITOpTa HCCPTH ~ xapaKTepH3ycTC) TeM lTO eCJJH B 1976 r 3Ta cTpaHa HMITOpTHposa~a 73 M~H 6appeJlcli Hecpnr B UCHb lTO B CTOHMOCTHOM SbJpa)KeHHH COCTaSJl)JlO 318 MijPll )lOJlJl B rOll TO B 1979 r IlMITOpT HecpTIl COCTaBJI) y)(e 85 MJlH 6appeJlerI B UeHb aero CTOIlMOCTb 60 MJlpll UO B roU Do OTHOIliCHHlO K 06meMY ofibeMY aMepHKaHcKoro 3KcnopTa (TOshyBapOB H yCJlyr) CTOHMOCTb HMnopTa HecpTH B03pOCJJa C 186 UO 246 lTO HarJl)UHO xashypaKTepH3yeT 060CTpeHHC npOOJleMbJ ToprOBoro OaJlaHCa CIlIA 3a CleT pOCTa HMnopTa Hecpnr (ltltOil and Gas Journalraquo November 12 1979 p 175)
9 M3BeCTHblH aMepHKaHCKHH HCTOPHK ApTYP IlIJle3HHrep-MJlarIliHli SXOU5UlUIH B COshyCTas omUKaHIliHX coseTHHKOB laquoKaHa l(eHHeUnraquo B CBoeM sbicTyrMeHHH Ha Cbe3)le MII)shyTeJlbHOH JlHOepaHOH opraHH3aIJHII laquoAMepHKaHubl - CTOPOHHHKH UeMOKpaTlIleCKlIX ncilshyCTSHiIraquo CKa3aJl ITO B cospeMeHHblX YCJl)BlilIX laquonpe3HlleHT l(apTep CTOHT nepe)l HIJOM
BHyTpeHHHX npOOJleM CTOJlb )(e cpYHUaMeHTaJlbHblX H OCTPblX KaKHe CTO)JlH nepeU rrpe-3IfUeHTOM lt1gt PY3BCJlbTOM B 30-e rOUbI TaKHMH rrpOOijeMaMH B nepBylO OlepeUb )BJlfllOTCfl IlHCPJHIUH) H meprenIKaraquo O)lHaKO OKa3aBIlillCb B nOUOOHoM nOJlO)(CHIlH np0UOJl)(aJl llCTOPHK Il)( l(apTep UeHcTsyer He KaK PY3BerJbT He B TpaUHUH)X UeMOKpaTHleCKoi napTHH a Clwpee KaK pecrrYOJlHKaHCKHH npe3HUeHT rpOBep I(JlHBJleHlI OllHH H3 caMbiX IltOHcepBaTHBHbIX npe3HlleHTOS S HCTOPIlH AMepHKH (A S chi e sin g e r Who Needs Grover Cleveland laquoThe New Republicraquo July 7-14 1979 pp 14-15)
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THleCKHMH C006pa2KeHHHMH OAHOM H3 OCHOBHblX 3allatI TaKoro Kypca 6blJIO CTBHll HOBoro cOBeTcKo-aMe ElHepreTIIeCKOH npOOJleMbI Timesraquo July 16 1979 p A
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BblCTBSJlllJOT B CMelliHOM CBeTe HellaBHle 3aBepeHI MIHICTpa centHHaHcoB YHJlb5lMa MJl shy 14 OJlHH H3 JJHnepOB
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BceH BepOHTHOCTH pe3KO nOJlCKOlHT K MOMeHTY nepBHIHblX BbI60pOB A POCT 6e3pa60TIUb Ubi TaKiKe 06eCneVlBaTb 51
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1979 pp 20 22) oBepHa A KP3HCTOHa lllK KaJlBepa I E oa51 llaquoTimeraquo August 20 ~oro Il KOHpqH()M CIeTt 3
AL T II - A Soft BargaiI10
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12 O)JHHM H3 HaHOOJIee llpKHX npHMepOB TaKoro pO)Ja nponaraH)JHCTCKHX BblcTynJICshyHHM npOTIlBHIlKOB pa3pSl)JKH CJIYgtKaT ny6J1HKauHIl 1l3BeCTHoro peaKUHOHepa Il CHOHHCTa H nO)Jropeua pe1l3KTOp3 lKypHaJIa laquoKOMMeHTapllraquo B CTaTbe ony6J1HKOBaHHOH ra3eTOM laquoHblO-110PK TaHMCraquo KOTopaSl B ueJIOM npH)JepgtKHBaeTCll 60JIee Tpe3BOH JIIlHIlH H no)Jshyropeu nHCaJI C COlKaJIeHHeM ITO 1l1lell 3aXBaTa HeljJTSlHblx MeCTOpOK)JeHHH a paOCKHX CTpaH BoopYgtKeHHbIMH CHJIaMH CilIA B OTBeT Ha pe3KOe nOBblweHHe ueH Ha HeljJTb co CTOPOHbl OnEK 6blJIa laquoOTBeprHyTaraquo anMIlHllcTpauHeH P HHKcoHa H npOH30WJIO 9TO B CHJIY Toro ITO no CJIOBaM aBTopa B YCJIOBHllX HaJIHqHSI CTpaTerllqeCKOrO napHTeTa CilIA - CCCP 3apoundjlIlKcnpoBaHHoro B COrJIaWeHIUlX no OCB-I aMepHK3HCKaR BoeHHaSi MOWh OK333J1aCb laquonOJIHOCTblO CKOBaHHoHraquo n03TOMY OH npH3blBa1 BceMH CHJlaMH 60POTbCI npOTHB OCB-2 KOTopoe-)Je 3aKpenllT laquoOTCTaBaHHeraquo CilIA B CTpaTernqeCKOH OOJlaCTJI B YCJIOBHllX )JeflshyCTBHI HOBoro cOBeTcKo-aMepHKaHcKoro COrJIallIenllll B03MOlKHOCTH )JJIll CHJIOBOrO laquopellIeHHll) sHepreTHlJeCKOH npOOJleMbl CilIA OKa)YTCll ewe 60JIee OrpaHHlJeHHblMH (ltltThe New York Timesraquo July 16 1979 p A-17)
13 no )J8HHbl onpOCOB 06weCTBeHfloro MlIeHHll npOEO)JHMbIX qHKarCKHM COBeTOM no BHellIHHM CHOllIeHHllM qHCJIO BblCKa3blBalOWllXCSI B nOJIb3Y pOCTa BoeHHblX paCXO)JOB K KOHUY 70-x rO)JOB B03POCJIO no cpaBHeHll10 C 1974 r Ha 38 72 onpollIeHHblx B 1978 r CqHTaJlH ITO ClilA Bce OOJIbWe OTCTalOT OT COBeTcKoro COlO3a B BoeHHOM OTHOshyllIeHHH (ltltAmerican Public Opinion and US Foreign Policy 1979raquo Ed by J Rielly The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations 1979 p 25)
14 O)JIlH liS JIIl)JepoB npeCJIOBYToro laquoKoMllTeT3 no cYllIeCTBYlOwell onaCHOCTHraquo IO POCTOY nHllIeT no 3TOMy nOBo)JY laquoHawa nOJIHTHKa YCTpallIeHHSI HeI136egtKHO HlleT )JaJIhllIe oxpaHbl Coe)JHHeHHblx lilTaTos OT B03MO)(HOCTH R)JepHoro Hana)JeHHll Mbl )JOJI)shyflbl T8KKe 06eCnelHsBTb llllepHYlO rapaHTHIO HIIWHX IlHTepeCoB BO sceM MHpe H HMeTb B03MOlKHOCTb aallIHW8Th 3TH HHTepeCbI nocpellCTBOM )JHnJIOMaTIlH HJII1 npHMeHeHHll 06bllJshyHblX BoopYlKeHHH B nepBhle nOCJIeBOeHHble rOllhl Y Hac 6blJIa MOHonOJIIlR HII llIIepHOe opylKHe H B TelJeHHe nOCJIenYlornero JIeCRTHJIeTHll C He60JlbWHM - npHMepHO )JO cepe)JHHhl HJIH )JO KOHua 60-x rOJIOB - Mhl HMeJlH pellIQIOWee SI)JepHoe npeBOCXO)JCTBO Mhl OTBeqaJlll Ha yrp03bl HallIHM fHTepeClM llHnJIOMBTHIeCKIiMH CpeJICTBIIMHHJlH Kor)J8 )JHnJIOMIITHSI He Y)JaBaJl8Cb npHMeHeHHeM IlJlH peWHTeJlbHof yrpo3oir npHMeneHHI 06hllJHblX BoopYlKeshyHUll Ho SlllepHOe opYlKHe Bcer1l8 6blJIO peWlIOWHM ljJaKTopoM 1l01lKpenJIllBllIHM HallIll llelicTBllll B KOHue 60-x HaqaJle 70-x r01l0B Hallie llllepHOe npeBOCXO)JCTBO HCqe3J10 M He MOrJIO n09ToMy onpelleJlHTb XO)J C06blTHfi B IOro-BoCTOqflOH A3Hl-I laquoKOMHTeT no cyweCTBYlOweii onaCHOCTHraquo KOTOPblH fI npe)JCTaBJIlllO BblcTynaeT npOTHB lloroBopa OCB-2 H60 OH nOMellIaeT HaM BOCCTaHOBHTb TOT nOTeHUHaJI 11llepHOrO YCTpaweHHll OT KOTOshypora B KOfW1HO~ (lJeTe 33BHCHT Haw laquoHaUHOHaJIfHI)I 6e30rra(HocTb (E R 0 tow SALT II-A Soft Bargain a Hard Sell laquoPolicy Reviewraquo Fall 1978 pp 47-48 55)
11
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npeTeHJleHT OT ueMoKpCOOblTHHM npenBbIoopHOH KaMnaHHH 1980 r COHTH Ha HeT 3TO H HBHJIOCb 9 BpaYH BnOCJIeJlCTBHHonHoA H3 BalKHbIX npHIHH TOro ITO lllK KapTep BOCnOJIb30BaJICH COObIshy
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HaCTpoeHbl npOTHB CnOJl3aHHH K laquoXOJIO1IHOM BOHHeraquo KOTOpa51 MOIKeT
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CylUeCTByIOT pa3Hbie TOLJKH 3peHHH Ha TO KYlla BeCTH cTpaHy IIaJIbIlIe
Kpyrax npaBHmero RJlaCCa pa3llaIOTCff rpOMKHe rOJlOca B nOJlb3Y MHpa pa3p5IllKH YBeJlHleHH5I 06beMa TOprOBJIH H MHpHoro cocymecTBoBaHl1H TaK KaK 3Ta nOJlHTHKa B c06CTBeHHbIX IKe HHTepecax lIaCTH 3Toro KJlaCCa
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17 laquoDaily Worldraquo January 31 1980
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A A KOKOUJVlH
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nOpaKeHHH ClllA BO BheTHaMe B CBH3H C POCTOM MaCCOBoro aHTHBoeHshyHoro ]BHKeHHH KOTopoe OXBaTHJIO He TOJIbKO HH3h H cpe]HHe CJIOH aMeshy
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rrpH3HaHHe npe3H]eHTOM P HHKCOHOM CTpaTerHqeCKOrO napHTeTa MeK]Y
Coe]HHeHHbIMH WTaTaMH H COBeTcKHM COroSOM npH3HaHHe HeB03MOKshy
HOCTM ]JIH ClllA H3MeHHTh 3TO paBHoBecHe - no KpafmeH Mepe B 70-e roshy
]bl B nOJIb3Y OOJIee peaJIHCTHQeCKOrO nepeCMoTpa MHorHX rrOCTYJIaTOB
BoeHHOH nOJIHTHKH B nOJIb3Y OrpaHHqeHHH rOHKH BoopYKeHHH rOBOpHJIH
H MHorne H3MeHeHHH npoHcIlle]IIIHe B COOTHOUleHHH 3KOHOMHQeCKOrO MOshy
ryrnecTBa ClllA H HX r JIaBHblX KanHTaJIHCTH-IeCKHX KOHKypeHToB - 3ana]shy
HoeBponeHcKHx CTpaH H 51noHHH B BbIcTynJIeHHHX KpynHeHUlHX npe]npHshy
HHMaTeJIen Ii rocy]apcTBeHHblX JJeHTeJIeii AMepHKH HaqaJIa 70middotx rO]OB
Heo]HoKpaTHo nO]QepKHBaJIOCb -ITO YCHJIeHHe n03HUHH 3THX Bce 60JIee
I eM laquoThe Memoirs of Richard Nixonraquo N Y 1978 pp 414-418 541-543 H K iss j n g e r White House Years Boston 1979 pp 195-225 228-302 1010-1016
J
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CKoro nperBopeHHH ee B )KH3Hb LlHCIltYCCH51 pa3BepHYBWa51C51 B
nOCJIe MOCKOBCKOH BCTpellH B CB513H C BoeHHbIM 6roll2KeTOM rrOKa3bIB
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3HalllWOCb il CMe~eHlm ero n031lUIflf C ueHTpllCTCKOH H npaBoueHTplfCTCKOH OTKpOBeHHO npaBO laCTIf cneKTpa nOJIIfHlKH pecny6JlHKaHcKoii napmiddotmll 9TO HaJ10JKJIO OTneqaTOK Ha ero peTpocneKTHBHhle oueHKIl MelKnVHapOllHhlX
(H KISSInger White House Years pp 522-5577888411202-1307)
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HM He ynacTcH ll06HTbCH CKOJIbKO-HHOYllb 3aMeTHoro YJIyqllleHHH 3KOHOshy
8 OTCYTCTBHe CKO~bKO-HHOY)lb 3aMeTHOrO nporpecca B PCIliCHHH OllHOrO H3 OCHOBshyHblX acneKTOB 3HepreTHleCKoi npoOeMbi 3aBHCHMOCTH CIlIA OT HMITOpTa HCCPTH ~ xapaKTepH3ycTC) TeM lTO eCJJH B 1976 r 3Ta cTpaHa HMITOpTHposa~a 73 M~H 6appeJlcli Hecpnr B UCHb lTO B CTOHMOCTHOM SbJpa)KeHHH COCTaSJl)JlO 318 MijPll )lOJlJl B rOll TO B 1979 r IlMITOpT HecpTIl COCTaBJI) y)(e 85 MJlH 6appeJlerI B UeHb aero CTOIlMOCTb 60 MJlpll UO B roU Do OTHOIliCHHlO K 06meMY ofibeMY aMepHKaHcKoro 3KcnopTa (TOshyBapOB H yCJlyr) CTOHMOCTb HMnopTa HecpTH B03pOCJJa C 186 UO 246 lTO HarJl)UHO xashypaKTepH3yeT 060CTpeHHC npOOJleMbJ ToprOBoro OaJlaHCa CIlIA 3a CleT pOCTa HMnopTa Hecpnr (ltltOil and Gas Journalraquo November 12 1979 p 175)
9 M3BeCTHblH aMepHKaHCKHH HCTOPHK ApTYP IlIJle3HHrep-MJlarIliHli SXOU5UlUIH B COshyCTas omUKaHIliHX coseTHHKOB laquoKaHa l(eHHeUnraquo B CBoeM sbicTyrMeHHH Ha Cbe3)le MII)shyTeJlbHOH JlHOepaHOH opraHH3aIJHII laquoAMepHKaHubl - CTOPOHHHKH UeMOKpaTlIleCKlIX ncilshyCTSHiIraquo CKa3aJl ITO B cospeMeHHblX YCJl)BlilIX laquonpe3HlleHT l(apTep CTOHT nepe)l HIJOM
BHyTpeHHHX npOOJleM CTOJlb )(e cpYHUaMeHTaJlbHblX H OCTPblX KaKHe CTO)JlH nepeU rrpe-3IfUeHTOM lt1gt PY3BCJlbTOM B 30-e rOUbI TaKHMH rrpOOijeMaMH B nepBylO OlepeUb )BJlfllOTCfl IlHCPJHIUH) H meprenIKaraquo O)lHaKO OKa3aBIlillCb B nOUOOHoM nOJlO)(CHIlH np0UOJl)(aJl llCTOPHK Il)( l(apTep UeHcTsyer He KaK PY3BerJbT He B TpaUHUH)X UeMOKpaTHleCKoi napTHH a Clwpee KaK pecrrYOJlHKaHCKHH npe3HUeHT rpOBep I(JlHBJleHlI OllHH H3 caMbiX IltOHcepBaTHBHbIX npe3HlleHTOS S HCTOPIlH AMepHKH (A S chi e sin g e r Who Needs Grover Cleveland laquoThe New Republicraquo July 7-14 1979 pp 14-15)
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BaBIlIHMCH BO BTOPOH nOJIOBHHe 70-x rOllOB B rJIa3aX 3HalHTeJIbHOH laCTIi 3altjlHKcHpoBaHHoro B COrJll laquofJOJlHOCTblO cKoBaHHoilraquo naMepHKaHCKoro npaBHmero KJIaCCa HapHAy C H3BeCTHblMH BHeIliHeIIOJIHshyROTOpOe-1le 3aKpemlT laquoOTC
THleCKHMH C006pa2KeHHHMH OAHOM H3 OCHOBHblX 3allatI TaKoro Kypca 6blJIO CTBHll HOBoro cOBeTcKo-aMe ElHepreTIIeCKOH npOOJleMbI Timesraquo July 16 1979 p A
13 llo 1laHHbIM onpoc10 3aCJlYlKIBalOIUylO BHIMaHIH oueHKY 1l0JIITHIeCKIX acneKTOB 9KOHOMHIeCIWii 06shyno BHelIlHHM CHOlIleHlflMCTaHOBKH B CillA H ElKOHOMIIeCKOH nOJlHTHKH rbK KapTepa ZIaJJ lKypHaJI 1leJJOBblX KPYshyK KOHUY 70-x r01l0B BOPrOB laquoOH3Hec yIKraquo laquoJlo 130paHH5I nepBblX 1leJJeraTOB Ha Cbe31l 1leMOKpaTIIIeCKOii napT J978 r CIITaJlH ITO ClIJAB 19~0 r OCTaJlOCb Bcero Tpl MeC5U3 HO lllKlIMMI KapTep IJler K 9TOMY POKOBOMY lHJO WeHHH (ltltAmericafJ PublicCBoeH nOJlHTllecKoil Kapbepbl npe6b1Ball B BeCbMa nJJaleBHOM COCTOHHII Mepbl COBer8
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BblCTBSJlllJOT B CMelliHOM CBeTe HellaBHle 3aBepeHI MIHICTpa centHHaHcoB YHJlb5lMa MJl shy 14 OJlHH H3 JJHnepOB
Jlepa ITO cnaJl lanoJloBHHY YlKe n03a1lH llOJJHTIIKB nOJlJlIIHHOrO OrpBHHIeHH5I neHe)lHO~ 10 PocTOy nllUleT no 3Tt
MaccbI bullbull B nOJlITHleCKOM flJlaHe 03HaQaeT ITO cnaJl ellle II He HalaJlC5I oe3pa60Tlma n9 JlaJlhlIle oxpaHbl CoenIHeUH
BceH BepOHTHOCTH pe3KO nOJlCKOlHT K MOMeHTY nepBHIHblX BbI60pOB A POCT 6e3pa60TIUb Ubi TaKiKe 06eCneVlBaTb 51
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BH5IX Korna ueHbI Ha HecentTb H CTaBKH flO HIlOrelHOMY KpellIlTY npOJlOJJ)KaIOT 1l0BbIUlaTbCII HblX BoopYlKemlil B nepI
(ltltBusmess Weekraquo October 22 1979 p 130) OPYlKHe H B TeleHle nOCJlE
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ne~He B 3HallTeJlbHoii Mepe 00b5lCHllJlOCb paCTYllleii yrp030H co CTOpOIJbl npaBblX B Ill( H[~ Ho HnepHoe 0pYlKHe ~OH CTnClllblx H361paTeJlbHblX oKpyrax HaKBHYHe nepeBbl60pOB 1980 r OpraHH3auaIl llencTBHfl B KOHue BO-x KOHcepBa bIXraquo Talme K3K laquo a BbllKHB3HIe cB060nH010 KOHrpeccBraquo H laquoHauHOHaJlbflbl l1OBblX npaB 3 II He MOrJlO nOElTOMy oap
TilBHblij KOMI bullHa Bbl60pax B reT nOJlHTIIeCKHX 1lel1CTBIIraquo SBllBHJlH ITO 1l06blOrCli nopalKeflll CYllleCTBYlOIneH onaCHOCTIlgt
lt1gt 4epla 1lgtK ~~~T p5lna BHnHbIX JlH6epaJlbHblX IleHTeJJeil BKJIlOtJaH ynoMHHyrorO 1160 Off bull nOMelliaeT HaM
1979 pp 20 22) oBepHa A KP3HCTOHa lllK KaJlBepa I E oa51 llaquoTimeraquo August 20 ~oro Il KOHpqH()M CIeTt 3
AL T II - A Soft BargaiI10
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COCTOllHHIl Mepbl COBeT3 HIlIO Kpe)JHT3 ljJaKTllqecJ1l ljJllHaHcoB YHJlbllMa MUJIshy
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ibHhle ceHaTopbl (BKJIlOqaSl 4epqa) KOTopble JIO noro CB-2 B ceHaTe YIx nOBeshy0 CTOPOlJbl np3BblX B UX B 1980 r OpraHll33lUlH peccaraquo H laquoHaUIlOHaJIbHbH lT0 JIOOblOTCR nopa)eHHll BKJllOqagt1 ynOMllHYToro BaR (laquoTimeraquo August 20
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MeJKllYHap0llHbIX 3KOHOMHQeCKHX n03HUHH ClllA ITO B CHOID OQepellb CKamiddot
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aMepHKaHcKoro HaCeJleHHH MHCP 0 laquocOBeTCKoH BoeHHoH yrp03eraquo HecMoTpR
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CTBa Hall CCCP QTo6bI CHOBa KaK H B nepRle nOCJleBOeHHble rO~bI nOnbIshy
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H CMOKeT npellOTBpaTHTb llaJlbHeHlllee OCJla6J1eHile MeK~YHapOllHbIX aKOshy
HOMIIQeCKIIX n03HUHH ClllA B MHpe coxpaHHB TeM caMbIM MaTepHaJlbHble
KOMnOHeHTbI aMepIiKaHCKoro 06pa3a JKH3HII 14
PaCTYlllaR nOTpe6HOCTb npe3HJleHTa B no~o6HOM nepeHeceHHH aKueHshy
Ta B rrpeJlBbI6oPHbIX nOnHTHqeCKHX ~e6aTax C BHYTpeHHHX np06J1eM HU Me)KllYHapOllHble COlleHCTBOBana B03HHKHOBeHHID KpH3Hca B aMepHKaHOshy
HpaHCKHX OTHOllleHHRX nOBOllOM K KOTOPOMY nOCJlyJKHn npOBOKaUIIOHHbII
12 O)JHHM H3 HaHOOJIee llpKHX npHMepOB TaKoro pO)Ja nponaraH)JHCTCKHX BblcTynJICshyHHM npOTIlBHIlKOB pa3pSl)JKH CJIYgtKaT ny6J1HKauHIl 1l3BeCTHoro peaKUHOHepa Il CHOHHCTa H nO)Jropeua pe1l3KTOp3 lKypHaJIa laquoKOMMeHTapllraquo B CTaTbe ony6J1HKOBaHHOH ra3eTOM laquoHblO-110PK TaHMCraquo KOTopaSl B ueJIOM npH)JepgtKHBaeTCll 60JIee Tpe3BOH JIIlHIlH H no)Jshyropeu nHCaJI C COlKaJIeHHeM ITO 1l1lell 3aXBaTa HeljJTSlHblx MeCTOpOK)JeHHH a paOCKHX CTpaH BoopYgtKeHHbIMH CHJIaMH CilIA B OTBeT Ha pe3KOe nOBblweHHe ueH Ha HeljJTb co CTOPOHbl OnEK 6blJIa laquoOTBeprHyTaraquo anMIlHllcTpauHeH P HHKcoHa H npOH30WJIO 9TO B CHJIY Toro ITO no CJIOBaM aBTopa B YCJIOBHllX HaJIHqHSI CTpaTerllqeCKOrO napHTeTa CilIA - CCCP 3apoundjlIlKcnpoBaHHoro B COrJIaWeHIUlX no OCB-I aMepHK3HCKaR BoeHHaSi MOWh OK333J1aCb laquonOJIHOCTblO CKOBaHHoHraquo n03TOMY OH npH3blBa1 BceMH CHJlaMH 60POTbCI npOTHB OCB-2 KOTopoe-)Je 3aKpenllT laquoOTCTaBaHHeraquo CilIA B CTpaTernqeCKOH OOJlaCTJI B YCJIOBHllX )JeflshyCTBHI HOBoro cOBeTcKo-aMepHKaHcKoro COrJIallIenllll B03MOlKHOCTH )JJIll CHJIOBOrO laquopellIeHHll) sHepreTHlJeCKOH npOOJleMbl CilIA OKa)YTCll ewe 60JIee OrpaHHlJeHHblMH (ltltThe New York Timesraquo July 16 1979 p A-17)
13 no )J8HHbl onpOCOB 06weCTBeHfloro MlIeHHll npOEO)JHMbIX qHKarCKHM COBeTOM no BHellIHHM CHOllIeHHllM qHCJIO BblCKa3blBalOWllXCSI B nOJIb3Y pOCTa BoeHHblX paCXO)JOB K KOHUY 70-x rO)JOB B03POCJIO no cpaBHeHll10 C 1974 r Ha 38 72 onpollIeHHblx B 1978 r CqHTaJlH ITO ClilA Bce OOJIbWe OTCTalOT OT COBeTcKoro COlO3a B BoeHHOM OTHOshyllIeHHH (ltltAmerican Public Opinion and US Foreign Policy 1979raquo Ed by J Rielly The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations 1979 p 25)
14 O)JIlH liS JIIl)JepoB npeCJIOBYToro laquoKoMllTeT3 no cYllIeCTBYlOwell onaCHOCTHraquo IO POCTOY nHllIeT no 3TOMy nOBo)JY laquoHawa nOJIHTHKa YCTpallIeHHSI HeI136egtKHO HlleT )JaJIhllIe oxpaHbl Coe)JHHeHHblx lilTaTos OT B03MO)(HOCTH R)JepHoro Hana)JeHHll Mbl )JOJI)shyflbl T8KKe 06eCnelHsBTb llllepHYlO rapaHTHIO HIIWHX IlHTepeCoB BO sceM MHpe H HMeTb B03MOlKHOCTb aallIHW8Th 3TH HHTepeCbI nocpellCTBOM )JHnJIOMaTIlH HJII1 npHMeHeHHll 06bllJshyHblX BoopYlKeHHH B nepBhle nOCJIeBOeHHble rOllhl Y Hac 6blJIa MOHonOJIIlR HII llIIepHOe opylKHe H B TelJeHHe nOCJIenYlornero JIeCRTHJIeTHll C He60JlbWHM - npHMepHO )JO cepe)JHHhl HJIH )JO KOHua 60-x rOJIOB - Mhl HMeJlH pellIQIOWee SI)JepHoe npeBOCXO)JCTBO Mhl OTBeqaJlll Ha yrp03bl HallIHM fHTepeClM llHnJIOMBTHIeCKIiMH CpeJICTBIIMHHJlH Kor)J8 )JHnJIOMIITHSI He Y)JaBaJl8Cb npHMeHeHHeM IlJlH peWHTeJlbHof yrpo3oir npHMeneHHI 06hllJHblX BoopYlKeshyHUll Ho SlllepHOe opYlKHe Bcer1l8 6blJIO peWlIOWHM ljJaKTopoM 1l01lKpenJIllBllIHM HallIll llelicTBllll B KOHue 60-x HaqaJle 70-x r01l0B Hallie llllepHOe npeBOCXO)JCTBO HCqe3J10 M He MOrJIO n09ToMy onpelleJlHTb XO)J C06blTHfi B IOro-BoCTOqflOH A3Hl-I laquoKOMHTeT no cyweCTBYlOweii onaCHOCTHraquo KOTOPblH fI npe)JCTaBJIlllO BblcTynaeT npOTHB lloroBopa OCB-2 H60 OH nOMellIaeT HaM BOCCTaHOBHTb TOT nOTeHUHaJI 11llepHOrO YCTpaweHHll OT KOTOshypora B KOfW1HO~ (lJeTe 33BHCHT Haw laquoHaUHOHaJIfHI)I 6e30rra(HocTb (E R 0 tow SALT II-A Soft Bargain a Hard Sell laquoPolicy Reviewraquo Fall 1978 pp 47-48 55)
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17 laquoDaily Worldraquo January 31 1980
---------------------
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3HalllWOCb il CMe~eHlm ero n031lUIflf C ueHTpllCTCKOH H npaBoueHTplfCTCKOH OTKpOBeHHO npaBO laCTIf cneKTpa nOJIIfHlKH pecny6JlHKaHcKoii napmiddotmll 9TO HaJ10JKJIO OTneqaTOK Ha ero peTpocneKTHBHhle oueHKIl MelKnVHapOllHhlX
(H KISSInger White House Years pp 522-5577888411202-1307)
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HM He ynacTcH ll06HTbCH CKOJIbKO-HHOYllb 3aMeTHoro YJIyqllleHHH 3KOHOshy
8 OTCYTCTBHe CKO~bKO-HHOY)lb 3aMeTHOrO nporpecca B PCIliCHHH OllHOrO H3 OCHOBshyHblX acneKTOB 3HepreTHleCKoi npoOeMbi 3aBHCHMOCTH CIlIA OT HMITOpTa HCCPTH ~ xapaKTepH3ycTC) TeM lTO eCJJH B 1976 r 3Ta cTpaHa HMITOpTHposa~a 73 M~H 6appeJlcli Hecpnr B UCHb lTO B CTOHMOCTHOM SbJpa)KeHHH COCTaSJl)JlO 318 MijPll )lOJlJl B rOll TO B 1979 r IlMITOpT HecpTIl COCTaBJI) y)(e 85 MJlH 6appeJlerI B UeHb aero CTOIlMOCTb 60 MJlpll UO B roU Do OTHOIliCHHlO K 06meMY ofibeMY aMepHKaHcKoro 3KcnopTa (TOshyBapOB H yCJlyr) CTOHMOCTb HMnopTa HecpTH B03pOCJJa C 186 UO 246 lTO HarJl)UHO xashypaKTepH3yeT 060CTpeHHC npOOJleMbJ ToprOBoro OaJlaHCa CIlIA 3a CleT pOCTa HMnopTa Hecpnr (ltltOil and Gas Journalraquo November 12 1979 p 175)
9 M3BeCTHblH aMepHKaHCKHH HCTOPHK ApTYP IlIJle3HHrep-MJlarIliHli SXOU5UlUIH B COshyCTas omUKaHIliHX coseTHHKOB laquoKaHa l(eHHeUnraquo B CBoeM sbicTyrMeHHH Ha Cbe3)le MII)shyTeJlbHOH JlHOepaHOH opraHH3aIJHII laquoAMepHKaHubl - CTOPOHHHKH UeMOKpaTlIleCKlIX ncilshyCTSHiIraquo CKa3aJl ITO B cospeMeHHblX YCJl)BlilIX laquonpe3HlleHT l(apTep CTOHT nepe)l HIJOM
BHyTpeHHHX npOOJleM CTOJlb )(e cpYHUaMeHTaJlbHblX H OCTPblX KaKHe CTO)JlH nepeU rrpe-3IfUeHTOM lt1gt PY3BCJlbTOM B 30-e rOUbI TaKHMH rrpOOijeMaMH B nepBylO OlepeUb )BJlfllOTCfl IlHCPJHIUH) H meprenIKaraquo O)lHaKO OKa3aBIlillCb B nOUOOHoM nOJlO)(CHIlH np0UOJl)(aJl llCTOPHK Il)( l(apTep UeHcTsyer He KaK PY3BerJbT He B TpaUHUH)X UeMOKpaTHleCKoi napTHH a Clwpee KaK pecrrYOJlHKaHCKHH npe3HUeHT rpOBep I(JlHBJleHlI OllHH H3 caMbiX IltOHcepBaTHBHbIX npe3HlleHTOS S HCTOPIlH AMepHKH (A S chi e sin g e r Who Needs Grover Cleveland laquoThe New Republicraquo July 7-14 1979 pp 14-15)
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HaMepeHHH nepeHTH K CHJIOBOMY 2KeCTKOMY BHeIliHenOJIHTHleCKOMY KYPCY OllEK 6blJIa laquooTBepmyraraquo CJIeAOBaJIa llOMHHHpYIOmHM HaCTpoeHHHM B npaBHmeM KJIaCce CKJIallblshy lJTO no CJI0BaM aBTopa B
BaBIlIHMCH BO BTOPOH nOJIOBHHe 70-x rOllOB B rJIa3aX 3HalHTeJIbHOH laCTIi 3altjlHKcHpoBaHHoro B COrJll laquofJOJlHOCTblO cKoBaHHoilraquo naMepHKaHCKoro npaBHmero KJIaCCa HapHAy C H3BeCTHblMH BHeIliHeIIOJIHshyROTOpOe-1le 3aKpemlT laquoOTC
THleCKHMH C006pa2KeHHHMH OAHOM H3 OCHOBHblX 3allatI TaKoro Kypca 6blJIO CTBHll HOBoro cOBeTcKo-aMe ElHepreTIIeCKOH npOOJleMbI Timesraquo July 16 1979 p A
13 llo 1laHHbIM onpoc10 3aCJlYlKIBalOIUylO BHIMaHIH oueHKY 1l0JIITHIeCKIX acneKTOB 9KOHOMHIeCIWii 06shyno BHelIlHHM CHOlIleHlflMCTaHOBKH B CillA H ElKOHOMIIeCKOH nOJlHTHKH rbK KapTepa ZIaJJ lKypHaJI 1leJJOBblX KPYshyK KOHUY 70-x r01l0B BOPrOB laquoOH3Hec yIKraquo laquoJlo 130paHH5I nepBblX 1leJJeraTOB Ha Cbe31l 1leMOKpaTIIIeCKOii napT J978 r CIITaJlH ITO ClIJAB 19~0 r OCTaJlOCb Bcero Tpl MeC5U3 HO lllKlIMMI KapTep IJler K 9TOMY POKOBOMY lHJO WeHHH (ltltAmericafJ PublicCBoeH nOJlHTllecKoil Kapbepbl npe6b1Ball B BeCbMa nJJaleBHOM COCTOHHII Mepbl COBer8
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BblCTBSJlllJOT B CMelliHOM CBeTe HellaBHle 3aBepeHI MIHICTpa centHHaHcoB YHJlb5lMa MJl shy 14 OJlHH H3 JJHnepOB
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MaccbI bullbull B nOJlITHleCKOM flJlaHe 03HaQaeT ITO cnaJl ellle II He HalaJlC5I oe3pa60Tlma n9 JlaJlhlIle oxpaHbl CoenIHeUH
BceH BepOHTHOCTH pe3KO nOJlCKOlHT K MOMeHTY nepBHIHblX BbI60pOB A POCT 6e3pa60TIUb Ubi TaKiKe 06eCneVlBaTb 51
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(ltltBusmess Weekraquo October 22 1979 p 130) OPYlKHe H B TeleHle nOCJlE
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TilBHblij KOMI bullHa Bbl60pax B reT nOJlHTIIeCKHX 1lel1CTBIIraquo SBllBHJlH ITO 1l06blOrCli nopalKeflll CYllleCTBYlOIneH onaCHOCTIlgt
lt1gt 4epla 1lgtK ~~~T p5lna BHnHbIX JlH6epaJlbHblX IleHTeJJeil BKJIlOtJaH ynoMHHyrorO 1160 Off bull nOMelliaeT HaM
1979 pp 20 22) oBepHa A KP3HCTOHa lllK KaJlBepa I E oa51 llaquoTimeraquo August 20 ~oro Il KOHpqH()M CIeTt 3
AL T II - A Soft BargaiI10
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ibHhle ceHaTopbl (BKJIlOqaSl 4epqa) KOTopble JIO noro CB-2 B ceHaTe YIx nOBeshy0 CTOPOlJbl np3BblX B UX B 1980 r OpraHll33lUlH peccaraquo H laquoHaUIlOHaJIbHbH lT0 JIOOblOTCR nopa)eHHll BKJllOqagt1 ynOMllHYToro BaR (laquoTimeraquo August 20
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CTBa Hall CCCP QTo6bI CHOBa KaK H B nepRle nOCJleBOeHHble rO~bI nOnbIshy
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KOMnOHeHTbI aMepIiKaHCKoro 06pa3a JKH3HII 14
PaCTYlllaR nOTpe6HOCTb npe3HJleHTa B no~o6HOM nepeHeceHHH aKueHshy
Ta B rrpeJlBbI6oPHbIX nOnHTHqeCKHX ~e6aTax C BHYTpeHHHX np06J1eM HU Me)KllYHapOllHble COlleHCTBOBana B03HHKHOBeHHID KpH3Hca B aMepHKaHOshy
HpaHCKHX OTHOllleHHRX nOBOllOM K KOTOPOMY nOCJlyJKHn npOBOKaUIIOHHbII
12 O)JHHM H3 HaHOOJIee llpKHX npHMepOB TaKoro pO)Ja nponaraH)JHCTCKHX BblcTynJICshyHHM npOTIlBHIlKOB pa3pSl)JKH CJIYgtKaT ny6J1HKauHIl 1l3BeCTHoro peaKUHOHepa Il CHOHHCTa H nO)Jropeua pe1l3KTOp3 lKypHaJIa laquoKOMMeHTapllraquo B CTaTbe ony6J1HKOBaHHOH ra3eTOM laquoHblO-110PK TaHMCraquo KOTopaSl B ueJIOM npH)JepgtKHBaeTCll 60JIee Tpe3BOH JIIlHIlH H no)Jshyropeu nHCaJI C COlKaJIeHHeM ITO 1l1lell 3aXBaTa HeljJTSlHblx MeCTOpOK)JeHHH a paOCKHX CTpaH BoopYgtKeHHbIMH CHJIaMH CilIA B OTBeT Ha pe3KOe nOBblweHHe ueH Ha HeljJTb co CTOPOHbl OnEK 6blJIa laquoOTBeprHyTaraquo anMIlHllcTpauHeH P HHKcoHa H npOH30WJIO 9TO B CHJIY Toro ITO no CJIOBaM aBTopa B YCJIOBHllX HaJIHqHSI CTpaTerllqeCKOrO napHTeTa CilIA - CCCP 3apoundjlIlKcnpoBaHHoro B COrJIaWeHIUlX no OCB-I aMepHK3HCKaR BoeHHaSi MOWh OK333J1aCb laquonOJIHOCTblO CKOBaHHoHraquo n03TOMY OH npH3blBa1 BceMH CHJlaMH 60POTbCI npOTHB OCB-2 KOTopoe-)Je 3aKpenllT laquoOTCTaBaHHeraquo CilIA B CTpaTernqeCKOH OOJlaCTJI B YCJIOBHllX )JeflshyCTBHI HOBoro cOBeTcKo-aMepHKaHcKoro COrJIallIenllll B03MOlKHOCTH )JJIll CHJIOBOrO laquopellIeHHll) sHepreTHlJeCKOH npOOJleMbl CilIA OKa)YTCll ewe 60JIee OrpaHHlJeHHblMH (ltltThe New York Timesraquo July 16 1979 p A-17)
13 no )J8HHbl onpOCOB 06weCTBeHfloro MlIeHHll npOEO)JHMbIX qHKarCKHM COBeTOM no BHellIHHM CHOllIeHHllM qHCJIO BblCKa3blBalOWllXCSI B nOJIb3Y pOCTa BoeHHblX paCXO)JOB K KOHUY 70-x rO)JOB B03POCJIO no cpaBHeHll10 C 1974 r Ha 38 72 onpollIeHHblx B 1978 r CqHTaJlH ITO ClilA Bce OOJIbWe OTCTalOT OT COBeTcKoro COlO3a B BoeHHOM OTHOshyllIeHHH (ltltAmerican Public Opinion and US Foreign Policy 1979raquo Ed by J Rielly The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations 1979 p 25)
14 O)JIlH liS JIIl)JepoB npeCJIOBYToro laquoKoMllTeT3 no cYllIeCTBYlOwell onaCHOCTHraquo IO POCTOY nHllIeT no 3TOMy nOBo)JY laquoHawa nOJIHTHKa YCTpallIeHHSI HeI136egtKHO HlleT )JaJIhllIe oxpaHbl Coe)JHHeHHblx lilTaTos OT B03MO)(HOCTH R)JepHoro Hana)JeHHll Mbl )JOJI)shyflbl T8KKe 06eCnelHsBTb llllepHYlO rapaHTHIO HIIWHX IlHTepeCoB BO sceM MHpe H HMeTb B03MOlKHOCTb aallIHW8Th 3TH HHTepeCbI nocpellCTBOM )JHnJIOMaTIlH HJII1 npHMeHeHHll 06bllJshyHblX BoopYlKeHHH B nepBhle nOCJIeBOeHHble rOllhl Y Hac 6blJIa MOHonOJIIlR HII llIIepHOe opylKHe H B TelJeHHe nOCJIenYlornero JIeCRTHJIeTHll C He60JlbWHM - npHMepHO )JO cepe)JHHhl HJIH )JO KOHua 60-x rOJIOB - Mhl HMeJlH pellIQIOWee SI)JepHoe npeBOCXO)JCTBO Mhl OTBeqaJlll Ha yrp03bl HallIHM fHTepeClM llHnJIOMBTHIeCKIiMH CpeJICTBIIMHHJlH Kor)J8 )JHnJIOMIITHSI He Y)JaBaJl8Cb npHMeHeHHeM IlJlH peWHTeJlbHof yrpo3oir npHMeneHHI 06hllJHblX BoopYlKeshyHUll Ho SlllepHOe opYlKHe Bcer1l8 6blJIO peWlIOWHM ljJaKTopoM 1l01lKpenJIllBllIHM HallIll llelicTBllll B KOHue 60-x HaqaJle 70-x r01l0B Hallie llllepHOe npeBOCXO)JCTBO HCqe3J10 M He MOrJIO n09ToMy onpelleJlHTb XO)J C06blTHfi B IOro-BoCTOqflOH A3Hl-I laquoKOMHTeT no cyweCTBYlOweii onaCHOCTHraquo KOTOPblH fI npe)JCTaBJIlllO BblcTynaeT npOTHB lloroBopa OCB-2 H60 OH nOMellIaeT HaM BOCCTaHOBHTb TOT nOTeHUHaJI 11llepHOrO YCTpaweHHll OT KOTOshypora B KOfW1HO~ (lJeTe 33BHCHT Haw laquoHaUHOHaJIfHI)I 6e30rra(HocTb (E R 0 tow SALT II-A Soft Bargain a Hard Sell laquoPolicy Reviewraquo Fall 1978 pp 47-48 55)
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HM He ynacTcH ll06HTbCH CKOJIbKO-HHOYllb 3aMeTHoro YJIyqllleHHH 3KOHOshy
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HOMIIQeCKIIX n03HUHH ClllA B MHpe coxpaHHB TeM caMbIM MaTepHaJlbHble
KOMnOHeHTbI aMepIiKaHCKoro 06pa3a JKH3HII 14
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HpaHCKHX OTHOllleHHRX nOBOllOM K KOTOPOMY nOCJlyJKHn npOBOKaUIIOHHbII
12 O)JHHM H3 HaHOOJIee llpKHX npHMepOB TaKoro pO)Ja nponaraH)JHCTCKHX BblcTynJICshyHHM npOTIlBHIlKOB pa3pSl)JKH CJIYgtKaT ny6J1HKauHIl 1l3BeCTHoro peaKUHOHepa Il CHOHHCTa H nO)Jropeua pe1l3KTOp3 lKypHaJIa laquoKOMMeHTapllraquo B CTaTbe ony6J1HKOBaHHOH ra3eTOM laquoHblO-110PK TaHMCraquo KOTopaSl B ueJIOM npH)JepgtKHBaeTCll 60JIee Tpe3BOH JIIlHIlH H no)Jshyropeu nHCaJI C COlKaJIeHHeM ITO 1l1lell 3aXBaTa HeljJTSlHblx MeCTOpOK)JeHHH a paOCKHX CTpaH BoopYgtKeHHbIMH CHJIaMH CilIA B OTBeT Ha pe3KOe nOBblweHHe ueH Ha HeljJTb co CTOPOHbl OnEK 6blJIa laquoOTBeprHyTaraquo anMIlHllcTpauHeH P HHKcoHa H npOH30WJIO 9TO B CHJIY Toro ITO no CJIOBaM aBTopa B YCJIOBHllX HaJIHqHSI CTpaTerllqeCKOrO napHTeTa CilIA - CCCP 3apoundjlIlKcnpoBaHHoro B COrJIaWeHIUlX no OCB-I aMepHK3HCKaR BoeHHaSi MOWh OK333J1aCb laquonOJIHOCTblO CKOBaHHoHraquo n03TOMY OH npH3blBa1 BceMH CHJlaMH 60POTbCI npOTHB OCB-2 KOTopoe-)Je 3aKpenllT laquoOTCTaBaHHeraquo CilIA B CTpaTernqeCKOH OOJlaCTJI B YCJIOBHllX )JeflshyCTBHI HOBoro cOBeTcKo-aMepHKaHcKoro COrJIallIenllll B03MOlKHOCTH )JJIll CHJIOBOrO laquopellIeHHll) sHepreTHlJeCKOH npOOJleMbl CilIA OKa)YTCll ewe 60JIee OrpaHHlJeHHblMH (ltltThe New York Timesraquo July 16 1979 p A-17)
13 no )J8HHbl onpOCOB 06weCTBeHfloro MlIeHHll npOEO)JHMbIX qHKarCKHM COBeTOM no BHellIHHM CHOllIeHHllM qHCJIO BblCKa3blBalOWllXCSI B nOJIb3Y pOCTa BoeHHblX paCXO)JOB K KOHUY 70-x rO)JOB B03POCJIO no cpaBHeHll10 C 1974 r Ha 38 72 onpollIeHHblx B 1978 r CqHTaJlH ITO ClilA Bce OOJIbWe OTCTalOT OT COBeTcKoro COlO3a B BoeHHOM OTHOshyllIeHHH (ltltAmerican Public Opinion and US Foreign Policy 1979raquo Ed by J Rielly The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations 1979 p 25)
14 O)JIlH liS JIIl)JepoB npeCJIOBYToro laquoKoMllTeT3 no cYllIeCTBYlOwell onaCHOCTHraquo IO POCTOY nHllIeT no 3TOMy nOBo)JY laquoHawa nOJIHTHKa YCTpallIeHHSI HeI136egtKHO HlleT )JaJIhllIe oxpaHbl Coe)JHHeHHblx lilTaTos OT B03MO)(HOCTH R)JepHoro Hana)JeHHll Mbl )JOJI)shyflbl T8KKe 06eCnelHsBTb llllepHYlO rapaHTHIO HIIWHX IlHTepeCoB BO sceM MHpe H HMeTb B03MOlKHOCTb aallIHW8Th 3TH HHTepeCbI nocpellCTBOM )JHnJIOMaTIlH HJII1 npHMeHeHHll 06bllJshyHblX BoopYlKeHHH B nepBhle nOCJIeBOeHHble rOllhl Y Hac 6blJIa MOHonOJIIlR HII llIIepHOe opylKHe H B TelJeHHe nOCJIenYlornero JIeCRTHJIeTHll C He60JlbWHM - npHMepHO )JO cepe)JHHhl HJIH )JO KOHua 60-x rOJIOB - Mhl HMeJlH pellIQIOWee SI)JepHoe npeBOCXO)JCTBO Mhl OTBeqaJlll Ha yrp03bl HallIHM fHTepeClM llHnJIOMBTHIeCKIiMH CpeJICTBIIMHHJlH Kor)J8 )JHnJIOMIITHSI He Y)JaBaJl8Cb npHMeHeHHeM IlJlH peWHTeJlbHof yrpo3oir npHMeneHHI 06hllJHblX BoopYlKeshyHUll Ho SlllepHOe opYlKHe Bcer1l8 6blJIO peWlIOWHM ljJaKTopoM 1l01lKpenJIllBllIHM HallIll llelicTBllll B KOHue 60-x HaqaJle 70-x r01l0B Hallie llllepHOe npeBOCXO)JCTBO HCqe3J10 M He MOrJIO n09ToMy onpelleJlHTb XO)J C06blTHfi B IOro-BoCTOqflOH A3Hl-I laquoKOMHTeT no cyweCTBYlOweii onaCHOCTHraquo KOTOPblH fI npe)JCTaBJIlllO BblcTynaeT npOTHB lloroBopa OCB-2 H60 OH nOMellIaeT HaM BOCCTaHOBHTb TOT nOTeHUHaJI 11llepHOrO YCTpaweHHll OT KOTOshypora B KOfW1HO~ (lJeTe 33BHCHT Haw laquoHaUHOHaJIfHI)I 6e30rra(HocTb (E R 0 tow SALT II-A Soft Bargain a Hard Sell laquoPolicy Reviewraquo Fall 1978 pp 47-48 55)
11
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laquonp 8sJaraquo 23 ifl~Bpaml 1980 r 12
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pecny6JlHI(aHCKOii napnlR TaiiMcraquo S illlsape 1980 r shy
ke no KaK MHe Ka2KeTClI Ha1e2K1bl npaBI1TeJlbCTB
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rrpocpcoI030B rOBOpSlT 0 TOM liTO 60Pb6a ITO BonpocaM pa3pHllKlI B ClllA
rrpollOIIKaeTC51 XOTH B HaCTOHmee BpeM51 ee YCJlOBH5I 1IJlH peaJIHCTHQeCKH
MblCJl51mHX npellCTaBHTeJIeH npaB5ImerO KJlaCCa pa3JlHIHbIX I1eMOKpaTHlIeshy
CHI 3aMeTHO YXY1IIlI HI HCb KaK CBHIIeTeJlbCTBYIOT HeKoTopble opraHbI aMepHKaHcKoif neQaTH HMeIOT MeCTO onpe1IeJleHHble paCXOIKlleHHH Me)I1Y BbICIlIHMH 1IOJIlKHOCTHbIMH JlHuaMH a1IMHHHCTpaUHH BO B3rJl5Illax H Ha
np06JleMY peIlIeHHH acpraHcKoro KpH3Hca
OueHHBa51 BHyrPHITOJlHTHlIecKYlo 06cTaHoBKY B HaIaIe 1980 r feHeshy
paJlbHblH ceKpeTapb KOMMYHHcTHlIecKoM napTHH ClllA r XOJlI OTMellaI
laquoAMepHKaHcKHH HapO1I He 3a6blJl CTpaIlIHbie rO1Ibl MaKKapTli3Ma He 3amiddot
OH H laquoyoTepreifTraquo B pe3YJlbTaTe Hapo1I He 1IOBep51eT npaBHTeIbCTBY MOHOnOJlHHM H He nOMaeTCH HCTepHH 8TO OlleHb HalleIKHa51 rapaHTH5I B03BpalUeHHH K laquoXOJlO1IHoif BoHHeraquo XOTlI HeT nOJIHOro ellHHOrJlaCH5I B
C06bITHH B AcpraHHCTaHe 60JlblllHHCTBO aMepHRaHueB KaTerOpHleshy
HaCTpoeHbl npOTHB CnOJl3aHHH K laquoXOJIO1IHOM BOHHeraquo KOTOpa51 MOIKeT
npflBeCTH K laquorop51leiraquo - H1IepHOH BoHHe K TOMY IKe H B npaB51mHX Kpyrax
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17 laquoDaily Worldraquo January 31 1980
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1976 r KOrla ero rJIaBHbIM KOHKypeHToM B paMKax TOH )Ke pecny6JIHKaHshyCKOH napnlH BblcTyrrHJI 6bIBlllHH ry6epHaTop KaJIHpopHHH P PeHraH
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HM He ynacTcH ll06HTbCH CKOJIbKO-HHOYllb 3aMeTHoro YJIyqllleHHH 3KOHOshy
8 OTCYTCTBHe CKO~bKO-HHOY)lb 3aMeTHOrO nporpecca B PCIliCHHH OllHOrO H3 OCHOBshyHblX acneKTOB 3HepreTHleCKoi npoOeMbi 3aBHCHMOCTH CIlIA OT HMITOpTa HCCPTH ~ xapaKTepH3ycTC) TeM lTO eCJJH B 1976 r 3Ta cTpaHa HMITOpTHposa~a 73 M~H 6appeJlcli Hecpnr B UCHb lTO B CTOHMOCTHOM SbJpa)KeHHH COCTaSJl)JlO 318 MijPll )lOJlJl B rOll TO B 1979 r IlMITOpT HecpTIl COCTaBJI) y)(e 85 MJlH 6appeJlerI B UeHb aero CTOIlMOCTb 60 MJlpll UO B roU Do OTHOIliCHHlO K 06meMY ofibeMY aMepHKaHcKoro 3KcnopTa (TOshyBapOB H yCJlyr) CTOHMOCTb HMnopTa HecpTH B03pOCJJa C 186 UO 246 lTO HarJl)UHO xashypaKTepH3yeT 060CTpeHHC npOOJleMbJ ToprOBoro OaJlaHCa CIlIA 3a CleT pOCTa HMnopTa Hecpnr (ltltOil and Gas Journalraquo November 12 1979 p 175)
9 M3BeCTHblH aMepHKaHCKHH HCTOPHK ApTYP IlIJle3HHrep-MJlarIliHli SXOU5UlUIH B COshyCTas omUKaHIliHX coseTHHKOB laquoKaHa l(eHHeUnraquo B CBoeM sbicTyrMeHHH Ha Cbe3)le MII)shyTeJlbHOH JlHOepaHOH opraHH3aIJHII laquoAMepHKaHubl - CTOPOHHHKH UeMOKpaTlIleCKlIX ncilshyCTSHiIraquo CKa3aJl ITO B cospeMeHHblX YCJl)BlilIX laquonpe3HlleHT l(apTep CTOHT nepe)l HIJOM
BHyTpeHHHX npOOJleM CTOJlb )(e cpYHUaMeHTaJlbHblX H OCTPblX KaKHe CTO)JlH nepeU rrpe-3IfUeHTOM lt1gt PY3BCJlbTOM B 30-e rOUbI TaKHMH rrpOOijeMaMH B nepBylO OlepeUb )BJlfllOTCfl IlHCPJHIUH) H meprenIKaraquo O)lHaKO OKa3aBIlillCb B nOUOOHoM nOJlO)(CHIlH np0UOJl)(aJl llCTOPHK Il)( l(apTep UeHcTsyer He KaK PY3BerJbT He B TpaUHUH)X UeMOKpaTHleCKoi napTHH a Clwpee KaK pecrrYOJlHKaHCKHH npe3HUeHT rpOBep I(JlHBJleHlI OllHH H3 caMbiX IltOHcepBaTHBHbIX npe3HlleHTOS S HCTOPIlH AMepHKH (A S chi e sin g e r Who Needs Grover Cleveland laquoThe New Republicraquo July 7-14 1979 pp 14-15)
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BaBIlIHMCH BO BTOPOH nOJIOBHHe 70-x rOllOB B rJIa3aX 3HalHTeJIbHOH laCTIi 3altjlHKcHpoBaHHoro B COrJll laquofJOJlHOCTblO cKoBaHHoilraquo naMepHKaHCKoro npaBHmero KJIaCCa HapHAy C H3BeCTHblMH BHeIliHeIIOJIHshyROTOpOe-1le 3aKpemlT laquoOTC
THleCKHMH C006pa2KeHHHMH OAHOM H3 OCHOBHblX 3allatI TaKoro Kypca 6blJIO CTBHll HOBoro cOBeTcKo-aMe ElHepreTIIeCKOH npOOJleMbI Timesraquo July 16 1979 p A
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BblCTBSJlllJOT B CMelliHOM CBeTe HellaBHle 3aBepeHI MIHICTpa centHHaHcoB YHJlb5lMa MJl shy 14 OJlHH H3 JJHnepOB
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MaccbI bullbull B nOJlITHleCKOM flJlaHe 03HaQaeT ITO cnaJl ellle II He HalaJlC5I oe3pa60Tlma n9 JlaJlhlIle oxpaHbl CoenIHeUH
BceH BepOHTHOCTH pe3KO nOJlCKOlHT K MOMeHTY nepBHIHblX BbI60pOB A POCT 6e3pa60TIUb Ubi TaKiKe 06eCneVlBaTb 51
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1979 pp 20 22) oBepHa A KP3HCTOHa lllK KaJlBepa I E oa51 llaquoTimeraquo August 20 ~oro Il KOHpqH()M CIeTt 3
AL T II - A Soft BargaiI10
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12 O)JHHM H3 HaHOOJIee llpKHX npHMepOB TaKoro pO)Ja nponaraH)JHCTCKHX BblcTynJICshyHHM npOTIlBHIlKOB pa3pSl)JKH CJIYgtKaT ny6J1HKauHIl 1l3BeCTHoro peaKUHOHepa Il CHOHHCTa H nO)Jropeua pe1l3KTOp3 lKypHaJIa laquoKOMMeHTapllraquo B CTaTbe ony6J1HKOBaHHOH ra3eTOM laquoHblO-110PK TaHMCraquo KOTopaSl B ueJIOM npH)JepgtKHBaeTCll 60JIee Tpe3BOH JIIlHIlH H no)Jshyropeu nHCaJI C COlKaJIeHHeM ITO 1l1lell 3aXBaTa HeljJTSlHblx MeCTOpOK)JeHHH a paOCKHX CTpaH BoopYgtKeHHbIMH CHJIaMH CilIA B OTBeT Ha pe3KOe nOBblweHHe ueH Ha HeljJTb co CTOPOHbl OnEK 6blJIa laquoOTBeprHyTaraquo anMIlHllcTpauHeH P HHKcoHa H npOH30WJIO 9TO B CHJIY Toro ITO no CJIOBaM aBTopa B YCJIOBHllX HaJIHqHSI CTpaTerllqeCKOrO napHTeTa CilIA - CCCP 3apoundjlIlKcnpoBaHHoro B COrJIaWeHIUlX no OCB-I aMepHK3HCKaR BoeHHaSi MOWh OK333J1aCb laquonOJIHOCTblO CKOBaHHoHraquo n03TOMY OH npH3blBa1 BceMH CHJlaMH 60POTbCI npOTHB OCB-2 KOTopoe-)Je 3aKpenllT laquoOTCTaBaHHeraquo CilIA B CTpaTernqeCKOH OOJlaCTJI B YCJIOBHllX )JeflshyCTBHI HOBoro cOBeTcKo-aMepHKaHcKoro COrJIallIenllll B03MOlKHOCTH )JJIll CHJIOBOrO laquopellIeHHll) sHepreTHlJeCKOH npOOJleMbl CilIA OKa)YTCll ewe 60JIee OrpaHHlJeHHblMH (ltltThe New York Timesraquo July 16 1979 p A-17)
13 no )J8HHbl onpOCOB 06weCTBeHfloro MlIeHHll npOEO)JHMbIX qHKarCKHM COBeTOM no BHellIHHM CHOllIeHHllM qHCJIO BblCKa3blBalOWllXCSI B nOJIb3Y pOCTa BoeHHblX paCXO)JOB K KOHUY 70-x rO)JOB B03POCJIO no cpaBHeHll10 C 1974 r Ha 38 72 onpollIeHHblx B 1978 r CqHTaJlH ITO ClilA Bce OOJIbWe OTCTalOT OT COBeTcKoro COlO3a B BoeHHOM OTHOshyllIeHHH (ltltAmerican Public Opinion and US Foreign Policy 1979raquo Ed by J Rielly The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations 1979 p 25)
14 O)JIlH liS JIIl)JepoB npeCJIOBYToro laquoKoMllTeT3 no cYllIeCTBYlOwell onaCHOCTHraquo IO POCTOY nHllIeT no 3TOMy nOBo)JY laquoHawa nOJIHTHKa YCTpallIeHHSI HeI136egtKHO HlleT )JaJIhllIe oxpaHbl Coe)JHHeHHblx lilTaTos OT B03MO)(HOCTH R)JepHoro Hana)JeHHll Mbl )JOJI)shyflbl T8KKe 06eCnelHsBTb llllepHYlO rapaHTHIO HIIWHX IlHTepeCoB BO sceM MHpe H HMeTb B03MOlKHOCTb aallIHW8Th 3TH HHTepeCbI nocpellCTBOM )JHnJIOMaTIlH HJII1 npHMeHeHHll 06bllJshyHblX BoopYlKeHHH B nepBhle nOCJIeBOeHHble rOllhl Y Hac 6blJIa MOHonOJIIlR HII llIIepHOe opylKHe H B TelJeHHe nOCJIenYlornero JIeCRTHJIeTHll C He60JlbWHM - npHMepHO )JO cepe)JHHhl HJIH )JO KOHua 60-x rOJIOB - Mhl HMeJlH pellIQIOWee SI)JepHoe npeBOCXO)JCTBO Mhl OTBeqaJlll Ha yrp03bl HallIHM fHTepeClM llHnJIOMBTHIeCKIiMH CpeJICTBIIMHHJlH Kor)J8 )JHnJIOMIITHSI He Y)JaBaJl8Cb npHMeHeHHeM IlJlH peWHTeJlbHof yrpo3oir npHMeneHHI 06hllJHblX BoopYlKeshyHUll Ho SlllepHOe opYlKHe Bcer1l8 6blJIO peWlIOWHM ljJaKTopoM 1l01lKpenJIllBllIHM HallIll llelicTBllll B KOHue 60-x HaqaJle 70-x r01l0B Hallie llllepHOe npeBOCXO)JCTBO HCqe3J10 M He MOrJIO n09ToMy onpelleJlHTb XO)J C06blTHfi B IOro-BoCTOqflOH A3Hl-I laquoKOMHTeT no cyweCTBYlOweii onaCHOCTHraquo KOTOPblH fI npe)JCTaBJIlllO BblcTynaeT npOTHB lloroBopa OCB-2 H60 OH nOMellIaeT HaM BOCCTaHOBHTb TOT nOTeHUHaJI 11llepHOrO YCTpaweHHll OT KOTOshypora B KOfW1HO~ (lJeTe 33BHCHT Haw laquoHaUHOHaJIfHI)I 6e30rra(HocTb (E R 0 tow SALT II-A Soft Bargain a Hard Sell laquoPolicy Reviewraquo Fall 1978 pp 47-48 55)
11
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HM He ynacTcH ll06HTbCH CKOJIbKO-HHOYllb 3aMeTHoro YJIyqllleHHH 3KOHOshy
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HpaHCKHX OTHOllleHHRX nOBOllOM K KOTOPOMY nOCJlyJKHn npOBOKaUIIOHHbII
12 O)JHHM H3 HaHOOJIee llpKHX npHMepOB TaKoro pO)Ja nponaraH)JHCTCKHX BblcTynJICshyHHM npOTIlBHIlKOB pa3pSl)JKH CJIYgtKaT ny6J1HKauHIl 1l3BeCTHoro peaKUHOHepa Il CHOHHCTa H nO)Jropeua pe1l3KTOp3 lKypHaJIa laquoKOMMeHTapllraquo B CTaTbe ony6J1HKOBaHHOH ra3eTOM laquoHblO-110PK TaHMCraquo KOTopaSl B ueJIOM npH)JepgtKHBaeTCll 60JIee Tpe3BOH JIIlHIlH H no)Jshyropeu nHCaJI C COlKaJIeHHeM ITO 1l1lell 3aXBaTa HeljJTSlHblx MeCTOpOK)JeHHH a paOCKHX CTpaH BoopYgtKeHHbIMH CHJIaMH CilIA B OTBeT Ha pe3KOe nOBblweHHe ueH Ha HeljJTb co CTOPOHbl OnEK 6blJIa laquoOTBeprHyTaraquo anMIlHllcTpauHeH P HHKcoHa H npOH30WJIO 9TO B CHJIY Toro ITO no CJIOBaM aBTopa B YCJIOBHllX HaJIHqHSI CTpaTerllqeCKOrO napHTeTa CilIA - CCCP 3apoundjlIlKcnpoBaHHoro B COrJIaWeHIUlX no OCB-I aMepHK3HCKaR BoeHHaSi MOWh OK333J1aCb laquonOJIHOCTblO CKOBaHHoHraquo n03TOMY OH npH3blBa1 BceMH CHJlaMH 60POTbCI npOTHB OCB-2 KOTopoe-)Je 3aKpenllT laquoOTCTaBaHHeraquo CilIA B CTpaTernqeCKOH OOJlaCTJI B YCJIOBHllX )JeflshyCTBHI HOBoro cOBeTcKo-aMepHKaHcKoro COrJIallIenllll B03MOlKHOCTH )JJIll CHJIOBOrO laquopellIeHHll) sHepreTHlJeCKOH npOOJleMbl CilIA OKa)YTCll ewe 60JIee OrpaHHlJeHHblMH (ltltThe New York Timesraquo July 16 1979 p A-17)
13 no )J8HHbl onpOCOB 06weCTBeHfloro MlIeHHll npOEO)JHMbIX qHKarCKHM COBeTOM no BHellIHHM CHOllIeHHllM qHCJIO BblCKa3blBalOWllXCSI B nOJIb3Y pOCTa BoeHHblX paCXO)JOB K KOHUY 70-x rO)JOB B03POCJIO no cpaBHeHll10 C 1974 r Ha 38 72 onpollIeHHblx B 1978 r CqHTaJlH ITO ClilA Bce OOJIbWe OTCTalOT OT COBeTcKoro COlO3a B BoeHHOM OTHOshyllIeHHH (ltltAmerican Public Opinion and US Foreign Policy 1979raquo Ed by J Rielly The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations 1979 p 25)
14 O)JIlH liS JIIl)JepoB npeCJIOBYToro laquoKoMllTeT3 no cYllIeCTBYlOwell onaCHOCTHraquo IO POCTOY nHllIeT no 3TOMy nOBo)JY laquoHawa nOJIHTHKa YCTpallIeHHSI HeI136egtKHO HlleT )JaJIhllIe oxpaHbl Coe)JHHeHHblx lilTaTos OT B03MO)(HOCTH R)JepHoro Hana)JeHHll Mbl )JOJI)shyflbl T8KKe 06eCnelHsBTb llllepHYlO rapaHTHIO HIIWHX IlHTepeCoB BO sceM MHpe H HMeTb B03MOlKHOCTb aallIHW8Th 3TH HHTepeCbI nocpellCTBOM )JHnJIOMaTIlH HJII1 npHMeHeHHll 06bllJshyHblX BoopYlKeHHH B nepBhle nOCJIeBOeHHble rOllhl Y Hac 6blJIa MOHonOJIIlR HII llIIepHOe opylKHe H B TelJeHHe nOCJIenYlornero JIeCRTHJIeTHll C He60JlbWHM - npHMepHO )JO cepe)JHHhl HJIH )JO KOHua 60-x rOJIOB - Mhl HMeJlH pellIQIOWee SI)JepHoe npeBOCXO)JCTBO Mhl OTBeqaJlll Ha yrp03bl HallIHM fHTepeClM llHnJIOMBTHIeCKIiMH CpeJICTBIIMHHJlH Kor)J8 )JHnJIOMIITHSI He Y)JaBaJl8Cb npHMeHeHHeM IlJlH peWHTeJlbHof yrpo3oir npHMeneHHI 06hllJHblX BoopYlKeshyHUll Ho SlllepHOe opYlKHe Bcer1l8 6blJIO peWlIOWHM ljJaKTopoM 1l01lKpenJIllBllIHM HallIll llelicTBllll B KOHue 60-x HaqaJle 70-x r01l0B Hallie llllepHOe npeBOCXO)JCTBO HCqe3J10 M He MOrJIO n09ToMy onpelleJlHTb XO)J C06blTHfi B IOro-BoCTOqflOH A3Hl-I laquoKOMHTeT no cyweCTBYlOweii onaCHOCTHraquo KOTOPblH fI npe)JCTaBJIlllO BblcTynaeT npOTHB lloroBopa OCB-2 H60 OH nOMellIaeT HaM BOCCTaHOBHTb TOT nOTeHUHaJI 11llepHOrO YCTpaweHHll OT KOTOshypora B KOfW1HO~ (lJeTe 33BHCHT Haw laquoHaUHOHaJIfHI)I 6e30rra(HocTb (E R 0 tow SALT II-A Soft Bargain a Hard Sell laquoPolicy Reviewraquo Fall 1978 pp 47-48 55)
11
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np06JleMY peIlIeHHH acpraHcKoro KpH3Hca
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17 laquoDaily Worldraquo January 31 1980
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B 3TOT MOMenT rrpHlllJIH K BbIBO~y QTO KaKHe 6bI MepbI OHH HH npe~npHshyHHMaJIH K nepHo~y OCHOBHbIX C06blTHH H30HpaTeJlbHOH KaMnaHHH 1980 r bull
HM He ynacTcH ll06HTbCH CKOJIbKO-HHOYllb 3aMeTHoro YJIyqllleHHH 3KOHOshy
8 OTCYTCTBHe CKO~bKO-HHOY)lb 3aMeTHOrO nporpecca B PCIliCHHH OllHOrO H3 OCHOBshyHblX acneKTOB 3HepreTHleCKoi npoOeMbi 3aBHCHMOCTH CIlIA OT HMITOpTa HCCPTH ~ xapaKTepH3ycTC) TeM lTO eCJJH B 1976 r 3Ta cTpaHa HMITOpTHposa~a 73 M~H 6appeJlcli Hecpnr B UCHb lTO B CTOHMOCTHOM SbJpa)KeHHH COCTaSJl)JlO 318 MijPll )lOJlJl B rOll TO B 1979 r IlMITOpT HecpTIl COCTaBJI) y)(e 85 MJlH 6appeJlerI B UeHb aero CTOIlMOCTb 60 MJlpll UO B roU Do OTHOIliCHHlO K 06meMY ofibeMY aMepHKaHcKoro 3KcnopTa (TOshyBapOB H yCJlyr) CTOHMOCTb HMnopTa HecpTH B03pOCJJa C 186 UO 246 lTO HarJl)UHO xashypaKTepH3yeT 060CTpeHHC npOOJleMbJ ToprOBoro OaJlaHCa CIlIA 3a CleT pOCTa HMnopTa Hecpnr (ltltOil and Gas Journalraquo November 12 1979 p 175)
9 M3BeCTHblH aMepHKaHCKHH HCTOPHK ApTYP IlIJle3HHrep-MJlarIliHli SXOU5UlUIH B COshyCTas omUKaHIliHX coseTHHKOB laquoKaHa l(eHHeUnraquo B CBoeM sbicTyrMeHHH Ha Cbe3)le MII)shyTeJlbHOH JlHOepaHOH opraHH3aIJHII laquoAMepHKaHubl - CTOPOHHHKH UeMOKpaTlIleCKlIX ncilshyCTSHiIraquo CKa3aJl ITO B cospeMeHHblX YCJl)BlilIX laquonpe3HlleHT l(apTep CTOHT nepe)l HIJOM
BHyTpeHHHX npOOJleM CTOJlb )(e cpYHUaMeHTaJlbHblX H OCTPblX KaKHe CTO)JlH nepeU rrpe-3IfUeHTOM lt1gt PY3BCJlbTOM B 30-e rOUbI TaKHMH rrpOOijeMaMH B nepBylO OlepeUb )BJlfllOTCfl IlHCPJHIUH) H meprenIKaraquo O)lHaKO OKa3aBIlillCb B nOUOOHoM nOJlO)(CHIlH np0UOJl)(aJl llCTOPHK Il)( l(apTep UeHcTsyer He KaK PY3BerJbT He B TpaUHUH)X UeMOKpaTHleCKoi napTHH a Clwpee KaK pecrrYOJlHKaHCKHH npe3HUeHT rpOBep I(JlHBJleHlI OllHH H3 caMbiX IltOHcepBaTHBHbIX npe3HlleHTOS S HCTOPIlH AMepHKH (A S chi e sin g e r Who Needs Grover Cleveland laquoThe New Republicraquo July 7-14 1979 pp 14-15)
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THleCKHMH C006pa2KeHHHMH OAHOM H3 OCHOBHblX 3allatI TaKoro Kypca 6blJIO CTBHll HOBoro cOBeTcKo-aMe ElHepreTIIeCKOH npOOJleMbI Timesraquo July 16 1979 p A
13 llo 1laHHbIM onpoc10 3aCJlYlKIBalOIUylO BHIMaHIH oueHKY 1l0JIITHIeCKIX acneKTOB 9KOHOMHIeCIWii 06shyno BHelIlHHM CHOlIleHlflMCTaHOBKH B CillA H ElKOHOMIIeCKOH nOJlHTHKH rbK KapTepa ZIaJJ lKypHaJI 1leJJOBblX KPYshyK KOHUY 70-x r01l0B BOPrOB laquoOH3Hec yIKraquo laquoJlo 130paHH5I nepBblX 1leJJeraTOB Ha Cbe31l 1leMOKpaTIIIeCKOii napT J978 r CIITaJlH ITO ClIJAB 19~0 r OCTaJlOCb Bcero Tpl MeC5U3 HO lllKlIMMI KapTep IJler K 9TOMY POKOBOMY lHJO WeHHH (ltltAmericafJ PublicCBoeH nOJlHTllecKoil Kapbepbl npe6b1Ball B BeCbMa nJJaleBHOM COCTOHHII Mepbl COBer8
ynpaBJlHlOllllX $e1lepaJJbHoil pesepBHOH CICTeMbI no OrpaHHIeHHJO KpeJmTa centaKTIIec~II Chicago Council on Foreigr
BblCTBSJlllJOT B CMelliHOM CBeTe HellaBHle 3aBepeHI MIHICTpa centHHaHcoB YHJlb5lMa MJl shy 14 OJlHH H3 JJHnepOB
Jlepa ITO cnaJl lanoJloBHHY YlKe n03a1lH llOJJHTIIKB nOJlJlIIHHOrO OrpBHHIeHH5I neHe)lHO~ 10 PocTOy nllUleT no 3Tt
MaccbI bullbull B nOJlITHleCKOM flJlaHe 03HaQaeT ITO cnaJl ellle II He HalaJlC5I oe3pa60Tlma n9 JlaJlhlIle oxpaHbl CoenIHeUH
BceH BepOHTHOCTH pe3KO nOJlCKOlHT K MOMeHTY nepBHIHblX BbI60pOB A POCT 6e3pa60TIUb Ubi TaKiKe 06eCneVlBaTb 51
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BH5IX Korna ueHbI Ha HecentTb H CTaBKH flO HIlOrelHOMY KpellIlTY npOJlOJJ)KaIOT 1l0BbIUlaTbCII HblX BoopYlKemlil B nepI
(ltltBusmess Weekraquo October 22 1979 p 130) OPYlKHe H B TeleHle nOCJlE
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ne~He B 3HallTeJlbHoii Mepe 00b5lCHllJlOCb paCTYllleii yrp030H co CTOpOIJbl npaBblX B Ill( H[~ Ho HnepHoe 0pYlKHe ~OH CTnClllblx H361paTeJlbHblX oKpyrax HaKBHYHe nepeBbl60pOB 1980 r OpraHH3auaIl llencTBHfl B KOHue BO-x KOHcepBa bIXraquo Talme K3K laquo a BbllKHB3HIe cB060nH010 KOHrpeccBraquo H laquoHauHOHaJlbflbl l1OBblX npaB 3 II He MOrJlO nOElTOMy oap
TilBHblij KOMI bullHa Bbl60pax B reT nOJlHTIIeCKHX 1lel1CTBIIraquo SBllBHJlH ITO 1l06blOrCli nopalKeflll CYllleCTBYlOIneH onaCHOCTIlgt
lt1gt 4epla 1lgtK ~~~T p5lna BHnHbIX JlH6epaJlbHblX IleHTeJJeil BKJIlOtJaH ynoMHHyrorO 1160 Off bull nOMelliaeT HaM
1979 pp 20 22) oBepHa A KP3HCTOHa lllK KaJlBepa I E oa51 llaquoTimeraquo August 20 ~oro Il KOHpqH()M CIeTt 3
AL T II - A Soft BargaiI10
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nOnHTHqeCKOMY Kypcy
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ibHhle ceHaTopbl (BKJIlOqaSl 4epqa) KOTopble JIO noro CB-2 B ceHaTe YIx nOBeshy0 CTOPOlJbl np3BblX B UX B 1980 r OpraHll33lUlH peccaraquo H laquoHaUIlOHaJIbHbH lT0 JIOOblOTCR nopa)eHHll BKJllOqagt1 ynOMllHYToro BaR (laquoTimeraquo August 20
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CTBa Hall CCCP QTo6bI CHOBa KaK H B nepRle nOCJleBOeHHble rO~bI nOnbIshy
TaTbCR HCnOJIb30BaTb nOJlHTHKY RJlepHOrO WaHTaKa TO1bKO aTO HK06bl
H CMOKeT npellOTBpaTHTb llaJlbHeHlllee OCJla6J1eHile MeK~YHapOllHbIX aKOshy
HOMIIQeCKIIX n03HUHH ClllA B MHpe coxpaHHB TeM caMbIM MaTepHaJlbHble
KOMnOHeHTbI aMepIiKaHCKoro 06pa3a JKH3HII 14
PaCTYlllaR nOTpe6HOCTb npe3HJleHTa B no~o6HOM nepeHeceHHH aKueHshy
Ta B rrpeJlBbI6oPHbIX nOnHTHqeCKHX ~e6aTax C BHYTpeHHHX np06J1eM HU Me)KllYHapOllHble COlleHCTBOBana B03HHKHOBeHHID KpH3Hca B aMepHKaHOshy
HpaHCKHX OTHOllleHHRX nOBOllOM K KOTOPOMY nOCJlyJKHn npOBOKaUIIOHHbII
12 O)JHHM H3 HaHOOJIee llpKHX npHMepOB TaKoro pO)Ja nponaraH)JHCTCKHX BblcTynJICshyHHM npOTIlBHIlKOB pa3pSl)JKH CJIYgtKaT ny6J1HKauHIl 1l3BeCTHoro peaKUHOHepa Il CHOHHCTa H nO)Jropeua pe1l3KTOp3 lKypHaJIa laquoKOMMeHTapllraquo B CTaTbe ony6J1HKOBaHHOH ra3eTOM laquoHblO-110PK TaHMCraquo KOTopaSl B ueJIOM npH)JepgtKHBaeTCll 60JIee Tpe3BOH JIIlHIlH H no)Jshyropeu nHCaJI C COlKaJIeHHeM ITO 1l1lell 3aXBaTa HeljJTSlHblx MeCTOpOK)JeHHH a paOCKHX CTpaH BoopYgtKeHHbIMH CHJIaMH CilIA B OTBeT Ha pe3KOe nOBblweHHe ueH Ha HeljJTb co CTOPOHbl OnEK 6blJIa laquoOTBeprHyTaraquo anMIlHllcTpauHeH P HHKcoHa H npOH30WJIO 9TO B CHJIY Toro ITO no CJIOBaM aBTopa B YCJIOBHllX HaJIHqHSI CTpaTerllqeCKOrO napHTeTa CilIA - CCCP 3apoundjlIlKcnpoBaHHoro B COrJIaWeHIUlX no OCB-I aMepHK3HCKaR BoeHHaSi MOWh OK333J1aCb laquonOJIHOCTblO CKOBaHHoHraquo n03TOMY OH npH3blBa1 BceMH CHJlaMH 60POTbCI npOTHB OCB-2 KOTopoe-)Je 3aKpenllT laquoOTCTaBaHHeraquo CilIA B CTpaTernqeCKOH OOJlaCTJI B YCJIOBHllX )JeflshyCTBHI HOBoro cOBeTcKo-aMepHKaHcKoro COrJIallIenllll B03MOlKHOCTH )JJIll CHJIOBOrO laquopellIeHHll) sHepreTHlJeCKOH npOOJleMbl CilIA OKa)YTCll ewe 60JIee OrpaHHlJeHHblMH (ltltThe New York Timesraquo July 16 1979 p A-17)
13 no )J8HHbl onpOCOB 06weCTBeHfloro MlIeHHll npOEO)JHMbIX qHKarCKHM COBeTOM no BHellIHHM CHOllIeHHllM qHCJIO BblCKa3blBalOWllXCSI B nOJIb3Y pOCTa BoeHHblX paCXO)JOB K KOHUY 70-x rO)JOB B03POCJIO no cpaBHeHll10 C 1974 r Ha 38 72 onpollIeHHblx B 1978 r CqHTaJlH ITO ClilA Bce OOJIbWe OTCTalOT OT COBeTcKoro COlO3a B BoeHHOM OTHOshyllIeHHH (ltltAmerican Public Opinion and US Foreign Policy 1979raquo Ed by J Rielly The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations 1979 p 25)
14 O)JIlH liS JIIl)JepoB npeCJIOBYToro laquoKoMllTeT3 no cYllIeCTBYlOwell onaCHOCTHraquo IO POCTOY nHllIeT no 3TOMy nOBo)JY laquoHawa nOJIHTHKa YCTpallIeHHSI HeI136egtKHO HlleT )JaJIhllIe oxpaHbl Coe)JHHeHHblx lilTaTos OT B03MO)(HOCTH R)JepHoro Hana)JeHHll Mbl )JOJI)shyflbl T8KKe 06eCnelHsBTb llllepHYlO rapaHTHIO HIIWHX IlHTepeCoB BO sceM MHpe H HMeTb B03MOlKHOCTb aallIHW8Th 3TH HHTepeCbI nocpellCTBOM )JHnJIOMaTIlH HJII1 npHMeHeHHll 06bllJshyHblX BoopYlKeHHH B nepBhle nOCJIeBOeHHble rOllhl Y Hac 6blJIa MOHonOJIIlR HII llIIepHOe opylKHe H B TelJeHHe nOCJIenYlornero JIeCRTHJIeTHll C He60JlbWHM - npHMepHO )JO cepe)JHHhl HJIH )JO KOHua 60-x rOJIOB - Mhl HMeJlH pellIQIOWee SI)JepHoe npeBOCXO)JCTBO Mhl OTBeqaJlll Ha yrp03bl HallIHM fHTepeClM llHnJIOMBTHIeCKIiMH CpeJICTBIIMHHJlH Kor)J8 )JHnJIOMIITHSI He Y)JaBaJl8Cb npHMeHeHHeM IlJlH peWHTeJlbHof yrpo3oir npHMeneHHI 06hllJHblX BoopYlKeshyHUll Ho SlllepHOe opYlKHe Bcer1l8 6blJIO peWlIOWHM ljJaKTopoM 1l01lKpenJIllBllIHM HallIll llelicTBllll B KOHue 60-x HaqaJle 70-x r01l0B Hallie llllepHOe npeBOCXO)JCTBO HCqe3J10 M He MOrJIO n09ToMy onpelleJlHTb XO)J C06blTHfi B IOro-BoCTOqflOH A3Hl-I laquoKOMHTeT no cyweCTBYlOweii onaCHOCTHraquo KOTOPblH fI npe)JCTaBJIlllO BblcTynaeT npOTHB lloroBopa OCB-2 H60 OH nOMellIaeT HaM BOCCTaHOBHTb TOT nOTeHUHaJI 11llepHOrO YCTpaweHHll OT KOTOshypora B KOfW1HO~ (lJeTe 33BHCHT Haw laquoHaUHOHaJIfHI)I 6e30rra(HocTb (E R 0 tow SALT II-A Soft Bargain a Hard Sell laquoPolicy Reviewraquo Fall 1978 pp 47-48 55)
11
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17 laquoDaily Worldraquo January 31 1980
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B 3TOT MOMenT rrpHlllJIH K BbIBO~y QTO KaKHe 6bI MepbI OHH HH npe~npHshyHHMaJIH K nepHo~y OCHOBHbIX C06blTHH H30HpaTeJlbHOH KaMnaHHH 1980 r bull
HM He ynacTcH ll06HTbCH CKOJIbKO-HHOYllb 3aMeTHoro YJIyqllleHHH 3KOHOshy
8 OTCYTCTBHe CKO~bKO-HHOY)lb 3aMeTHOrO nporpecca B PCIliCHHH OllHOrO H3 OCHOBshyHblX acneKTOB 3HepreTHleCKoi npoOeMbi 3aBHCHMOCTH CIlIA OT HMITOpTa HCCPTH ~ xapaKTepH3ycTC) TeM lTO eCJJH B 1976 r 3Ta cTpaHa HMITOpTHposa~a 73 M~H 6appeJlcli Hecpnr B UCHb lTO B CTOHMOCTHOM SbJpa)KeHHH COCTaSJl)JlO 318 MijPll )lOJlJl B rOll TO B 1979 r IlMITOpT HecpTIl COCTaBJI) y)(e 85 MJlH 6appeJlerI B UeHb aero CTOIlMOCTb 60 MJlpll UO B roU Do OTHOIliCHHlO K 06meMY ofibeMY aMepHKaHcKoro 3KcnopTa (TOshyBapOB H yCJlyr) CTOHMOCTb HMnopTa HecpTH B03pOCJJa C 186 UO 246 lTO HarJl)UHO xashypaKTepH3yeT 060CTpeHHC npOOJleMbJ ToprOBoro OaJlaHCa CIlIA 3a CleT pOCTa HMnopTa Hecpnr (ltltOil and Gas Journalraquo November 12 1979 p 175)
9 M3BeCTHblH aMepHKaHCKHH HCTOPHK ApTYP IlIJle3HHrep-MJlarIliHli SXOU5UlUIH B COshyCTas omUKaHIliHX coseTHHKOB laquoKaHa l(eHHeUnraquo B CBoeM sbicTyrMeHHH Ha Cbe3)le MII)shyTeJlbHOH JlHOepaHOH opraHH3aIJHII laquoAMepHKaHubl - CTOPOHHHKH UeMOKpaTlIleCKlIX ncilshyCTSHiIraquo CKa3aJl ITO B cospeMeHHblX YCJl)BlilIX laquonpe3HlleHT l(apTep CTOHT nepe)l HIJOM
BHyTpeHHHX npOOJleM CTOJlb )(e cpYHUaMeHTaJlbHblX H OCTPblX KaKHe CTO)JlH nepeU rrpe-3IfUeHTOM lt1gt PY3BCJlbTOM B 30-e rOUbI TaKHMH rrpOOijeMaMH B nepBylO OlepeUb )BJlfllOTCfl IlHCPJHIUH) H meprenIKaraquo O)lHaKO OKa3aBIlillCb B nOUOOHoM nOJlO)(CHIlH np0UOJl)(aJl llCTOPHK Il)( l(apTep UeHcTsyer He KaK PY3BerJbT He B TpaUHUH)X UeMOKpaTHleCKoi napTHH a Clwpee KaK pecrrYOJlHKaHCKHH npe3HUeHT rpOBep I(JlHBJleHlI OllHH H3 caMbiX IltOHcepBaTHBHbIX npe3HlleHTOS S HCTOPIlH AMepHKH (A S chi e sin g e r Who Needs Grover Cleveland laquoThe New Republicraquo July 7-14 1979 pp 14-15)
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12 01lHHM H3 HaH60Jleuro HHKOB (nocJIellHee JIerKO npOCJIellHTb B TOHaJIbHOCTH TaKHX BellymHX Hlfj npOTIBHIKOB paSpllJlK opraHOB aMepHKaHCKoro MOHOnOJIHCTHleCKOrO KanHTaJIa KaK laquoYOJIJIshy H llo1lropeua pe1laKTopa
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HaMepeHHH nepeHTH K CHJIOBOMY 2KeCTKOMY BHeIliHenOJIHTHleCKOMY KYPCY OllEK 6blJIa laquooTBepmyraraquo CJIeAOBaJIa llOMHHHpYIOmHM HaCTpoeHHHM B npaBHmeM KJIaCce CKJIallblshy lJTO no CJI0BaM aBTopa B
BaBIlIHMCH BO BTOPOH nOJIOBHHe 70-x rOllOB B rJIa3aX 3HalHTeJIbHOH laCTIi 3altjlHKcHpoBaHHoro B COrJll laquofJOJlHOCTblO cKoBaHHoilraquo naMepHKaHCKoro npaBHmero KJIaCCa HapHAy C H3BeCTHblMH BHeIliHeIIOJIHshyROTOpOe-1le 3aKpemlT laquoOTC
THleCKHMH C006pa2KeHHHMH OAHOM H3 OCHOBHblX 3allatI TaKoro Kypca 6blJIO CTBHll HOBoro cOBeTcKo-aMe ElHepreTIIeCKOH npOOJleMbI Timesraquo July 16 1979 p A
13 llo 1laHHbIM onpoc10 3aCJlYlKIBalOIUylO BHIMaHIH oueHKY 1l0JIITHIeCKIX acneKTOB 9KOHOMHIeCIWii 06shyno BHelIlHHM CHOlIleHlflMCTaHOBKH B CillA H ElKOHOMIIeCKOH nOJlHTHKH rbK KapTepa ZIaJJ lKypHaJI 1leJJOBblX KPYshyK KOHUY 70-x r01l0B BOPrOB laquoOH3Hec yIKraquo laquoJlo 130paHH5I nepBblX 1leJJeraTOB Ha Cbe31l 1leMOKpaTIIIeCKOii napT J978 r CIITaJlH ITO ClIJAB 19~0 r OCTaJlOCb Bcero Tpl MeC5U3 HO lllKlIMMI KapTep IJler K 9TOMY POKOBOMY lHJO WeHHH (ltltAmericafJ PublicCBoeH nOJlHTllecKoil Kapbepbl npe6b1Ball B BeCbMa nJJaleBHOM COCTOHHII Mepbl COBer8
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BblCTBSJlllJOT B CMelliHOM CBeTe HellaBHle 3aBepeHI MIHICTpa centHHaHcoB YHJlb5lMa MJl shy 14 OJlHH H3 JJHnepOB
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MaccbI bullbull B nOJlITHleCKOM flJlaHe 03HaQaeT ITO cnaJl ellle II He HalaJlC5I oe3pa60Tlma n9 JlaJlhlIle oxpaHbl CoenIHeUH
BceH BepOHTHOCTH pe3KO nOJlCKOlHT K MOMeHTY nepBHIHblX BbI60pOB A POCT 6e3pa60TIUb Ubi TaKiKe 06eCneVlBaTb 51
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BH5IX Korna ueHbI Ha HecentTb H CTaBKH flO HIlOrelHOMY KpellIlTY npOJlOJJ)KaIOT 1l0BbIUlaTbCII HblX BoopYlKemlil B nepI
(ltltBusmess Weekraquo October 22 1979 p 130) OPYlKHe H B TeleHle nOCJlE
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TilBHblij KOMI bullHa Bbl60pax B reT nOJlHTIIeCKHX 1lel1CTBIIraquo SBllBHJlH ITO 1l06blOrCli nopalKeflll CYllleCTBYlOIneH onaCHOCTIlgt
lt1gt 4epla 1lgtK ~~~T p5lna BHnHbIX JlH6epaJlbHblX IleHTeJJeil BKJIlOtJaH ynoMHHyrorO 1160 Off bull nOMelliaeT HaM
1979 pp 20 22) oBepHa A KP3HCTOHa lllK KaJlBepa I E oa51 llaquoTimeraquo August 20 ~oro Il KOHpqH()M CIeTt 3
AL T II - A Soft BargaiI10
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ibHhle ceHaTopbl (BKJIlOqaSl 4epqa) KOTopble JIO noro CB-2 B ceHaTe YIx nOBeshy0 CTOPOlJbl np3BblX B UX B 1980 r OpraHll33lUlH peccaraquo H laquoHaUIlOHaJIbHbH lT0 JIOOblOTCR nopa)eHHll BKJllOqagt1 ynOMllHYToro BaR (laquoTimeraquo August 20
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CTBa Hall CCCP QTo6bI CHOBa KaK H B nepRle nOCJleBOeHHble rO~bI nOnbIshy
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KOMnOHeHTbI aMepIiKaHCKoro 06pa3a JKH3HII 14
PaCTYlllaR nOTpe6HOCTb npe3HJleHTa B no~o6HOM nepeHeceHHH aKueHshy
Ta B rrpeJlBbI6oPHbIX nOnHTHqeCKHX ~e6aTax C BHYTpeHHHX np06J1eM HU Me)KllYHapOllHble COlleHCTBOBana B03HHKHOBeHHID KpH3Hca B aMepHKaHOshy
HpaHCKHX OTHOllleHHRX nOBOllOM K KOTOPOMY nOCJlyJKHn npOBOKaUIIOHHbII
12 O)JHHM H3 HaHOOJIee llpKHX npHMepOB TaKoro pO)Ja nponaraH)JHCTCKHX BblcTynJICshyHHM npOTIlBHIlKOB pa3pSl)JKH CJIYgtKaT ny6J1HKauHIl 1l3BeCTHoro peaKUHOHepa Il CHOHHCTa H nO)Jropeua pe1l3KTOp3 lKypHaJIa laquoKOMMeHTapllraquo B CTaTbe ony6J1HKOBaHHOH ra3eTOM laquoHblO-110PK TaHMCraquo KOTopaSl B ueJIOM npH)JepgtKHBaeTCll 60JIee Tpe3BOH JIIlHIlH H no)Jshyropeu nHCaJI C COlKaJIeHHeM ITO 1l1lell 3aXBaTa HeljJTSlHblx MeCTOpOK)JeHHH a paOCKHX CTpaH BoopYgtKeHHbIMH CHJIaMH CilIA B OTBeT Ha pe3KOe nOBblweHHe ueH Ha HeljJTb co CTOPOHbl OnEK 6blJIa laquoOTBeprHyTaraquo anMIlHllcTpauHeH P HHKcoHa H npOH30WJIO 9TO B CHJIY Toro ITO no CJIOBaM aBTopa B YCJIOBHllX HaJIHqHSI CTpaTerllqeCKOrO napHTeTa CilIA - CCCP 3apoundjlIlKcnpoBaHHoro B COrJIaWeHIUlX no OCB-I aMepHK3HCKaR BoeHHaSi MOWh OK333J1aCb laquonOJIHOCTblO CKOBaHHoHraquo n03TOMY OH npH3blBa1 BceMH CHJlaMH 60POTbCI npOTHB OCB-2 KOTopoe-)Je 3aKpenllT laquoOTCTaBaHHeraquo CilIA B CTpaTernqeCKOH OOJlaCTJI B YCJIOBHllX )JeflshyCTBHI HOBoro cOBeTcKo-aMepHKaHcKoro COrJIallIenllll B03MOlKHOCTH )JJIll CHJIOBOrO laquopellIeHHll) sHepreTHlJeCKOH npOOJleMbl CilIA OKa)YTCll ewe 60JIee OrpaHHlJeHHblMH (ltltThe New York Timesraquo July 16 1979 p A-17)
13 no )J8HHbl onpOCOB 06weCTBeHfloro MlIeHHll npOEO)JHMbIX qHKarCKHM COBeTOM no BHellIHHM CHOllIeHHllM qHCJIO BblCKa3blBalOWllXCSI B nOJIb3Y pOCTa BoeHHblX paCXO)JOB K KOHUY 70-x rO)JOB B03POCJIO no cpaBHeHll10 C 1974 r Ha 38 72 onpollIeHHblx B 1978 r CqHTaJlH ITO ClilA Bce OOJIbWe OTCTalOT OT COBeTcKoro COlO3a B BoeHHOM OTHOshyllIeHHH (ltltAmerican Public Opinion and US Foreign Policy 1979raquo Ed by J Rielly The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations 1979 p 25)
14 O)JIlH liS JIIl)JepoB npeCJIOBYToro laquoKoMllTeT3 no cYllIeCTBYlOwell onaCHOCTHraquo IO POCTOY nHllIeT no 3TOMy nOBo)JY laquoHawa nOJIHTHKa YCTpallIeHHSI HeI136egtKHO HlleT )JaJIhllIe oxpaHbl Coe)JHHeHHblx lilTaTos OT B03MO)(HOCTH R)JepHoro Hana)JeHHll Mbl )JOJI)shyflbl T8KKe 06eCnelHsBTb llllepHYlO rapaHTHIO HIIWHX IlHTepeCoB BO sceM MHpe H HMeTb B03MOlKHOCTb aallIHW8Th 3TH HHTepeCbI nocpellCTBOM )JHnJIOMaTIlH HJII1 npHMeHeHHll 06bllJshyHblX BoopYlKeHHH B nepBhle nOCJIeBOeHHble rOllhl Y Hac 6blJIa MOHonOJIIlR HII llIIepHOe opylKHe H B TelJeHHe nOCJIenYlornero JIeCRTHJIeTHll C He60JlbWHM - npHMepHO )JO cepe)JHHhl HJIH )JO KOHua 60-x rOJIOB - Mhl HMeJlH pellIQIOWee SI)JepHoe npeBOCXO)JCTBO Mhl OTBeqaJlll Ha yrp03bl HallIHM fHTepeClM llHnJIOMBTHIeCKIiMH CpeJICTBIIMHHJlH Kor)J8 )JHnJIOMIITHSI He Y)JaBaJl8Cb npHMeHeHHeM IlJlH peWHTeJlbHof yrpo3oir npHMeneHHI 06hllJHblX BoopYlKeshyHUll Ho SlllepHOe opYlKHe Bcer1l8 6blJIO peWlIOWHM ljJaKTopoM 1l01lKpenJIllBllIHM HallIll llelicTBllll B KOHue 60-x HaqaJle 70-x r01l0B Hallie llllepHOe npeBOCXO)JCTBO HCqe3J10 M He MOrJIO n09ToMy onpelleJlHTb XO)J C06blTHfi B IOro-BoCTOqflOH A3Hl-I laquoKOMHTeT no cyweCTBYlOweii onaCHOCTHraquo KOTOPblH fI npe)JCTaBJIlllO BblcTynaeT npOTHB lloroBopa OCB-2 H60 OH nOMellIaeT HaM BOCCTaHOBHTb TOT nOTeHUHaJI 11llepHOrO YCTpaweHHll OT KOTOshypora B KOfW1HO~ (lJeTe 33BHCHT Haw laquoHaUHOHaJIfHI)I 6e30rra(HocTb (E R 0 tow SALT II-A Soft Bargain a Hard Sell laquoPolicy Reviewraquo Fall 1978 pp 47-48 55)
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rrpollOIIKaeTC51 XOTH B HaCTOHmee BpeM51 ee YCJlOBH5I 1IJlH peaJIHCTHQeCKH
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17 laquoDaily Worldraquo January 31 1980
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HpaHCKHX OTHOllleHHRX nOBOllOM K KOTOPOMY nOCJlyJKHn npOBOKaUIIOHHbII
12 O)JHHM H3 HaHOOJIee llpKHX npHMepOB TaKoro pO)Ja nponaraH)JHCTCKHX BblcTynJICshyHHM npOTIlBHIlKOB pa3pSl)JKH CJIYgtKaT ny6J1HKauHIl 1l3BeCTHoro peaKUHOHepa Il CHOHHCTa H nO)Jropeua pe1l3KTOp3 lKypHaJIa laquoKOMMeHTapllraquo B CTaTbe ony6J1HKOBaHHOH ra3eTOM laquoHblO-110PK TaHMCraquo KOTopaSl B ueJIOM npH)JepgtKHBaeTCll 60JIee Tpe3BOH JIIlHIlH H no)Jshyropeu nHCaJI C COlKaJIeHHeM ITO 1l1lell 3aXBaTa HeljJTSlHblx MeCTOpOK)JeHHH a paOCKHX CTpaH BoopYgtKeHHbIMH CHJIaMH CilIA B OTBeT Ha pe3KOe nOBblweHHe ueH Ha HeljJTb co CTOPOHbl OnEK 6blJIa laquoOTBeprHyTaraquo anMIlHllcTpauHeH P HHKcoHa H npOH30WJIO 9TO B CHJIY Toro ITO no CJIOBaM aBTopa B YCJIOBHllX HaJIHqHSI CTpaTerllqeCKOrO napHTeTa CilIA - CCCP 3apoundjlIlKcnpoBaHHoro B COrJIaWeHIUlX no OCB-I aMepHK3HCKaR BoeHHaSi MOWh OK333J1aCb laquonOJIHOCTblO CKOBaHHoHraquo n03TOMY OH npH3blBa1 BceMH CHJlaMH 60POTbCI npOTHB OCB-2 KOTopoe-)Je 3aKpenllT laquoOTCTaBaHHeraquo CilIA B CTpaTernqeCKOH OOJlaCTJI B YCJIOBHllX )JeflshyCTBHI HOBoro cOBeTcKo-aMepHKaHcKoro COrJIallIenllll B03MOlKHOCTH )JJIll CHJIOBOrO laquopellIeHHll) sHepreTHlJeCKOH npOOJleMbl CilIA OKa)YTCll ewe 60JIee OrpaHHlJeHHblMH (ltltThe New York Timesraquo July 16 1979 p A-17)
13 no )J8HHbl onpOCOB 06weCTBeHfloro MlIeHHll npOEO)JHMbIX qHKarCKHM COBeTOM no BHellIHHM CHOllIeHHllM qHCJIO BblCKa3blBalOWllXCSI B nOJIb3Y pOCTa BoeHHblX paCXO)JOB K KOHUY 70-x rO)JOB B03POCJIO no cpaBHeHll10 C 1974 r Ha 38 72 onpollIeHHblx B 1978 r CqHTaJlH ITO ClilA Bce OOJIbWe OTCTalOT OT COBeTcKoro COlO3a B BoeHHOM OTHOshyllIeHHH (ltltAmerican Public Opinion and US Foreign Policy 1979raquo Ed by J Rielly The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations 1979 p 25)
14 O)JIlH liS JIIl)JepoB npeCJIOBYToro laquoKoMllTeT3 no cYllIeCTBYlOwell onaCHOCTHraquo IO POCTOY nHllIeT no 3TOMy nOBo)JY laquoHawa nOJIHTHKa YCTpallIeHHSI HeI136egtKHO HlleT )JaJIhllIe oxpaHbl Coe)JHHeHHblx lilTaTos OT B03MO)(HOCTH R)JepHoro Hana)JeHHll Mbl )JOJI)shyflbl T8KKe 06eCnelHsBTb llllepHYlO rapaHTHIO HIIWHX IlHTepeCoB BO sceM MHpe H HMeTb B03MOlKHOCTb aallIHW8Th 3TH HHTepeCbI nocpellCTBOM )JHnJIOMaTIlH HJII1 npHMeHeHHll 06bllJshyHblX BoopYlKeHHH B nepBhle nOCJIeBOeHHble rOllhl Y Hac 6blJIa MOHonOJIIlR HII llIIepHOe opylKHe H B TelJeHHe nOCJIenYlornero JIeCRTHJIeTHll C He60JlbWHM - npHMepHO )JO cepe)JHHhl HJIH )JO KOHua 60-x rOJIOB - Mhl HMeJlH pellIQIOWee SI)JepHoe npeBOCXO)JCTBO Mhl OTBeqaJlll Ha yrp03bl HallIHM fHTepeClM llHnJIOMBTHIeCKIiMH CpeJICTBIIMHHJlH Kor)J8 )JHnJIOMIITHSI He Y)JaBaJl8Cb npHMeHeHHeM IlJlH peWHTeJlbHof yrpo3oir npHMeneHHI 06hllJHblX BoopYlKeshyHUll Ho SlllepHOe opYlKHe Bcer1l8 6blJIO peWlIOWHM ljJaKTopoM 1l01lKpenJIllBllIHM HallIll llelicTBllll B KOHue 60-x HaqaJle 70-x r01l0B Hallie llllepHOe npeBOCXO)JCTBO HCqe3J10 M He MOrJIO n09ToMy onpelleJlHTb XO)J C06blTHfi B IOro-BoCTOqflOH A3Hl-I laquoKOMHTeT no cyweCTBYlOweii onaCHOCTHraquo KOTOPblH fI npe)JCTaBJIlllO BblcTynaeT npOTHB lloroBopa OCB-2 H60 OH nOMellIaeT HaM BOCCTaHOBHTb TOT nOTeHUHaJI 11llepHOrO YCTpaweHHll OT KOTOshypora B KOfW1HO~ (lJeTe 33BHCHT Haw laquoHaUHOHaJIfHI)I 6e30rra(HocTb (E R 0 tow SALT II-A Soft Bargain a Hard Sell laquoPolicy Reviewraquo Fall 1978 pp 47-48 55)
11
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laquonp 8sJaraquo 23 ifl~Bpaml 1980 r 12
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BpaYH BIIOCJle1ICTBHH CHHBllIHH CBOIO KaH1IHllaTYPY BITpOleM 06a OHH OTKa3bIBaIOTCH OT HanallOK Ha nOJIHTHKY CCCP Ha CpeIlHeM BOCTOKe
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rrpocpcoI030B rOBOpSlT 0 TOM liTO 60Pb6a ITO BonpocaM pa3pHllKlI B ClllA
rrpollOIIKaeTC51 XOTH B HaCTOHmee BpeM51 ee YCJlOBH5I 1IJlH peaJIHCTHQeCKH
MblCJl51mHX npellCTaBHTeJIeH npaB5ImerO KJlaCCa pa3JlHIHbIX I1eMOKpaTHlIeshy
CHI 3aMeTHO YXY1IIlI HI HCb KaK CBHIIeTeJlbCTBYIOT HeKoTopble opraHbI aMepHKaHcKoif neQaTH HMeIOT MeCTO onpe1IeJleHHble paCXOIKlleHHH Me)I1Y BbICIlIHMH 1IOJIlKHOCTHbIMH JlHuaMH a1IMHHHCTpaUHH BO B3rJl5Illax H Ha
np06JleMY peIlIeHHH acpraHcKoro KpH3Hca
OueHHBa51 BHyrPHITOJlHTHlIecKYlo 06cTaHoBKY B HaIaIe 1980 r feHeshy
paJlbHblH ceKpeTapb KOMMYHHcTHlIecKoM napTHH ClllA r XOJlI OTMellaI
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OH H laquoyoTepreifTraquo B pe3YJlbTaTe Hapo1I He 1IOBep51eT npaBHTeIbCTBY MOHOnOJlHHM H He nOMaeTCH HCTepHH 8TO OlleHb HalleIKHa51 rapaHTH5I B03BpalUeHHH K laquoXOJlO1IHoif BoHHeraquo XOTlI HeT nOJIHOro ellHHOrJlaCH5I B
C06bITHH B AcpraHHCTaHe 60JlblllHHCTBO aMepHRaHueB KaTerOpHleshy
HaCTpoeHbl npOTHB CnOJl3aHHH K laquoXOJIO1IHOM BOHHeraquo KOTOpa51 MOIKeT
npflBeCTH K laquorop51leiraquo - H1IepHOH BoHHe K TOMY IKe H B npaB51mHX Kpyrax
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Kpyrax npaBHmero RJlaCCa pa3llaIOTCff rpOMKHe rOJlOca B nOJlb3Y MHpa pa3p5IllKH YBeJlHleHH5I 06beMa TOprOBJIH H MHpHoro cocymecTBoBaHl1H TaK KaK 3Ta nOJlHTHKa B c06CTBeHHbIX IKe HHTepecax lIaCTH 3Toro KJlaCCa
ero npe1ICTaBHTeJleif KTO H3BJleKaeT 60JIbIlIe npH6bIJleH nYTeM TOpshyH coxpaHeHHH YCJlOBHH MHpa qeM nYTeM BOHHbI H 3M6aproraquo 17
17 laquoDaily Worldraquo January 31 1980
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12 O)JHHM H3 HaHOOJIee llpKHX npHMepOB TaKoro pO)Ja nponaraH)JHCTCKHX BblcTynJICshyHHM npOTIlBHIlKOB pa3pSl)JKH CJIYgtKaT ny6J1HKauHIl 1l3BeCTHoro peaKUHOHepa Il CHOHHCTa H nO)Jropeua pe1l3KTOp3 lKypHaJIa laquoKOMMeHTapllraquo B CTaTbe ony6J1HKOBaHHOH ra3eTOM laquoHblO-110PK TaHMCraquo KOTopaSl B ueJIOM npH)JepgtKHBaeTCll 60JIee Tpe3BOH JIIlHIlH H no)Jshyropeu nHCaJI C COlKaJIeHHeM ITO 1l1lell 3aXBaTa HeljJTSlHblx MeCTOpOK)JeHHH a paOCKHX CTpaH BoopYgtKeHHbIMH CHJIaMH CilIA B OTBeT Ha pe3KOe nOBblweHHe ueH Ha HeljJTb co CTOPOHbl OnEK 6blJIa laquoOTBeprHyTaraquo anMIlHllcTpauHeH P HHKcoHa H npOH30WJIO 9TO B CHJIY Toro ITO no CJIOBaM aBTopa B YCJIOBHllX HaJIHqHSI CTpaTerllqeCKOrO napHTeTa CilIA - CCCP 3apoundjlIlKcnpoBaHHoro B COrJIaWeHIUlX no OCB-I aMepHK3HCKaR BoeHHaSi MOWh OK333J1aCb laquonOJIHOCTblO CKOBaHHoHraquo n03TOMY OH npH3blBa1 BceMH CHJlaMH 60POTbCI npOTHB OCB-2 KOTopoe-)Je 3aKpenllT laquoOTCTaBaHHeraquo CilIA B CTpaTernqeCKOH OOJlaCTJI B YCJIOBHllX )JeflshyCTBHI HOBoro cOBeTcKo-aMepHKaHcKoro COrJIallIenllll B03MOlKHOCTH )JJIll CHJIOBOrO laquopellIeHHll) sHepreTHlJeCKOH npOOJleMbl CilIA OKa)YTCll ewe 60JIee OrpaHHlJeHHblMH (ltltThe New York Timesraquo July 16 1979 p A-17)
13 no )J8HHbl onpOCOB 06weCTBeHfloro MlIeHHll npOEO)JHMbIX qHKarCKHM COBeTOM no BHellIHHM CHOllIeHHllM qHCJIO BblCKa3blBalOWllXCSI B nOJIb3Y pOCTa BoeHHblX paCXO)JOB K KOHUY 70-x rO)JOB B03POCJIO no cpaBHeHll10 C 1974 r Ha 38 72 onpollIeHHblx B 1978 r CqHTaJlH ITO ClilA Bce OOJIbWe OTCTalOT OT COBeTcKoro COlO3a B BoeHHOM OTHOshyllIeHHH (ltltAmerican Public Opinion and US Foreign Policy 1979raquo Ed by J Rielly The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations 1979 p 25)
14 O)JIlH liS JIIl)JepoB npeCJIOBYToro laquoKoMllTeT3 no cYllIeCTBYlOwell onaCHOCTHraquo IO POCTOY nHllIeT no 3TOMy nOBo)JY laquoHawa nOJIHTHKa YCTpallIeHHSI HeI136egtKHO HlleT )JaJIhllIe oxpaHbl Coe)JHHeHHblx lilTaTos OT B03MO)(HOCTH R)JepHoro Hana)JeHHll Mbl )JOJI)shyflbl T8KKe 06eCnelHsBTb llllepHYlO rapaHTHIO HIIWHX IlHTepeCoB BO sceM MHpe H HMeTb B03MOlKHOCTb aallIHW8Th 3TH HHTepeCbI nocpellCTBOM )JHnJIOMaTIlH HJII1 npHMeHeHHll 06bllJshyHblX BoopYlKeHHH B nepBhle nOCJIeBOeHHble rOllhl Y Hac 6blJIa MOHonOJIIlR HII llIIepHOe opylKHe H B TelJeHHe nOCJIenYlornero JIeCRTHJIeTHll C He60JlbWHM - npHMepHO )JO cepe)JHHhl HJIH )JO KOHua 60-x rOJIOB - Mhl HMeJlH pellIQIOWee SI)JepHoe npeBOCXO)JCTBO Mhl OTBeqaJlll Ha yrp03bl HallIHM fHTepeClM llHnJIOMBTHIeCKIiMH CpeJICTBIIMHHJlH Kor)J8 )JHnJIOMIITHSI He Y)JaBaJl8Cb npHMeHeHHeM IlJlH peWHTeJlbHof yrpo3oir npHMeneHHI 06hllJHblX BoopYlKeshyHUll Ho SlllepHOe opYlKHe Bcer1l8 6blJIO peWlIOWHM ljJaKTopoM 1l01lKpenJIllBllIHM HallIll llelicTBllll B KOHue 60-x HaqaJle 70-x r01l0B Hallie llllepHOe npeBOCXO)JCTBO HCqe3J10 M He MOrJIO n09ToMy onpelleJlHTb XO)J C06blTHfi B IOro-BoCTOqflOH A3Hl-I laquoKOMHTeT no cyweCTBYlOweii onaCHOCTHraquo KOTOPblH fI npe)JCTaBJIlllO BblcTynaeT npOTHB lloroBopa OCB-2 H60 OH nOMellIaeT HaM BOCCTaHOBHTb TOT nOTeHUHaJI 11llepHOrO YCTpaweHHll OT KOTOshypora B KOfW1HO~ (lJeTe 33BHCHT Haw laquoHaUHOHaJIfHI)I 6e30rra(HocTb (E R 0 tow SALT II-A Soft Bargain a Hard Sell laquoPolicy Reviewraquo Fall 1978 pp 47-48 55)
11
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17 laquoDaily Worldraquo January 31 1980
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laquonp 8sJaraquo 23 ifl~Bpaml 1980 r 12
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17 laquoDaily Worldraquo January 31 1980
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I1x BblcTynJleHH51 Hap511IY C OCTPOH KPHTHKOif a1IMHHHCTpaUHH co CTOPOHbI 06meCTBeHHO-IIOJlHTlilieCKHX opraHH3aUHH B TOM lIHCJle HeKOTopblX
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rrpollOIIKaeTC51 XOTH B HaCTOHmee BpeM51 ee YCJlOBH5I 1IJlH peaJIHCTHQeCKH
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OH H laquoyoTepreifTraquo B pe3YJlbTaTe Hapo1I He 1IOBep51eT npaBHTeIbCTBY MOHOnOJlHHM H He nOMaeTCH HCTepHH 8TO OlleHb HalleIKHa51 rapaHTH5I B03BpalUeHHH K laquoXOJlO1IHoif BoHHeraquo XOTlI HeT nOJIHOro ellHHOrJlaCH5I B
C06bITHH B AcpraHHCTaHe 60JlblllHHCTBO aMepHRaHueB KaTerOpHleshy
HaCTpoeHbl npOTHB CnOJl3aHHH K laquoXOJIO1IHOM BOHHeraquo KOTOpa51 MOIKeT
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Kpyrax npaBHmero RJlaCCa pa3llaIOTCff rpOMKHe rOJlOca B nOJlb3Y MHpa pa3p5IllKH YBeJlHleHH5I 06beMa TOprOBJIH H MHpHoro cocymecTBoBaHl1H TaK KaK 3Ta nOJlHTHKa B c06CTBeHHbIX IKe HHTepecax lIaCTH 3Toro KJlaCCa
ero npe1ICTaBHTeJleif KTO H3BJleKaeT 60JIbIlIe npH6bIJleH nYTeM TOpshyH coxpaHeHHH YCJlOBHH MHpa qeM nYTeM BOHHbI H 3M6aproraquo 17
17 laquoDaily Worldraquo January 31 1980