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REPLACEMENT OF NATURAL GAS RESIDENTIAL CONSUMPTION BY
ELECTRICITY SO AS TO SOLVE ARGENTINE NATURAL GAS CRISIS AND REDUCE GREENHOUSE GASES
EMISSIONS
by
Martín Gesualdi,
Tecnolatina S.A, Suipacha 1111, Buenos Aires, Argentine,
Phone/Fax +54 11 4312 0066,
E-mail: [email protected]
2
Introduction Argentine Natural Gas Market Power Market Proposal Results Conclusions
REPLACEMENT OF NATURAL GAS RESIDENTIAL CONSUMPTION BY ELECTRICITY
3
2001-2012 Argentine Gas Market Evolution
INTRODUCTIONFIXED AND LOW
RATES
INSUFFICIENT INVESTMENTS FOR EXPLORATION AND
DEVELOPMENT
HIGH GROWTH RATES OF NATURAL GAS DEMAND
NATURAL GAS RESERVES DECLINING
NATURAL GAS
PRODUCTION DECLINING
DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF NG UNABLE TO SUPPLY
LOCAL DEMAND
POWER PLANTS FORCED TO IMPORT
LIQUID FUEL TO REPLACE THE LACK OF
NG
NEED TO IMPORT NATURAL GAS
INCREASE GHG EMISSIONS
NEGATIVE IMPACT IN ARGENTINE ENERGY
TRADE BALANCE
4
2013 Argentine Energy Situation
Argentine Natural Gas Market
In the last ten years Argentine energy paradigm changed completely. Comparing 2004 with 2013, the situation is the following:
2004 2013
Net Exporter of NG Net Importer of NG
No restriction tu industrial users Need to restrict industrial demand
No restriction to power plantsImport of large volumes of gas and liquid fuels
Argentine Natural Gas Market
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Argentine NG production declining, as a result of the lack of incentives to invest, had become the main important problem of energy market.
Reserves of NG also went down as a consequence of the lack of investments in exploration and development
2013 Argentine Energy Situation
LOCAL NG PRODUCTION AND RESERVES
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Natural Gas Argentine Production (MMm3/d)
143 141 142 140 137133 130
125121
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
100
120
140
160
180
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Argentine Natural Gas Production-2004-2013 (MMm3/d)
0.000100.000200.000300.000400.000500.000600.000700.000800.000900.000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Argentine Natural Gas Reserves (MMm3/d)
-57%
-15%
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2013 Argentine Energy Situation
Exports and Imports of NG
Imports were needed to cover the gap between domestic production and demand
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Imports and Exports of NG (MMm3/d)
Argentine s Natural Gas Exports
Argentine s Natural Gas Imports
Starts LNG Imports
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2013 Argentine Energy Situation
DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF POWER
Despite similarities with gas market, power market was able to supply local demand during last decade
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Demand and Supply of Power (GW)
Monthly Peak of Power Demand
Installed Capacity
Power Available
8
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Power Generation by type of Generation (GWh)
Nuclear Termic Hidraulic Imports
2013 Argentine Energy Situation
DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF POWER
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Md
am3
of
Nat
ura
l G
as
Fuels for Electricity Generation
Fuel Oil [kton] Diesel Oil [mm3] Coal [kton] Natural Gas [mdam3] Biofueles [kton]
The new generation was based on thermal fired facilities (mainly Combined Cycles), that had to be supplied by NG and liquid fuels (diesel oil and gas oil).
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2013 Argentine Energy Situation
ENERGY TRADE BALANCEIn 2011 Energy trade Balance turned negative because of LNG and liquid fuels imports for power generation .
-6.000 MM usd
-4.000 MM usd
-2.000 MM usd
0.000 MM usd
2.000 MM usd
4.000 MM usd
6.000 MM usd
8.000 MM usd
10.000 MM usd
12.000 MM usd
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-e
Argentine Energy Trade Balance[MM usd-2013 estimated]
Energy Exports Energy Imports Energy Trade Balance
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2013 Argentine Energy Situation
POWER MATRIX AND GHG EMISSIONS
Argentine power matrix has an important reliance on hydrocarbons. However, only an 18 % of electricity is generate with coal, diesel oil and fuel oil
According to Greenhouse Emissions Standards, in 2012 the power matrix generated 47 millions of tons equivalent of CO2. And considering that 125.7 TWh were generated by power matrix, the tons eq. of CO2/MWh coefficient was 0.38
Hidraulic, 29,1%
Nuclear, 4,7%
Natural Gas,
47,3%
Liquid Fuels, 16,2%
Coal,2,1% Renewable,
0,3%
Imports, 0,3%
2012 Argentine Power Matrix
2012 % GWh Tn eq. Of CO2Hidro 29,1% 36.610Nuclear 4,7% 5.905Renewable 0,3% 323Termic with NG 47,3% 59.425 30.899.813Termica with fuels (1) 18,3% 23.020 16.416.699Imports 0,3% 423Total 100% 125.705 47.316.512
0,38
2012 Argentine Power Matrix Greenhouse Gases Emissions
TN eq CO2/MWh
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PROPOSAL
THEORICAL ANALISIS - Example2012
PROPOSAL
Replacement of average stoves by efficient air conditioner-split to heat homes
35 MMm3/d of NG
Argentine Thermal Park (2300 kcal/kwh)
142 GWhAllows to heat 8 MM of homes
Allows to heat 8 MM of homes
Average NG residential consumption: 38 MMm3/d
CONSIDERING 2012 ARGENTINE POWER MATRIX
17 MMm3/d
Natural Gas,
47,3%
Liquid Fuels, 16,2%
2012 Argentine Power Matrix
142 GWhAllows to heat 8 MM of homes
SAVINGS: 21 MMm3/dEstimate: 1,100 MM of usd per year
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To increase residential NG price. To subsidize electrical devices for heating To forbid the use of NG in new buildings
PROPOSAL
POLICIES TO CARRY OUT
EXPECTED BENEFITS Less emission Greater available gas for industrial consumption More NG available for Power Generation Less Import Energy Trade Balance surplus. Higher natural gas wellhead price received by producers
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By 2017 Nonconventional gas will already be part of the energy matrix.
Average Annual rate of demand growth of power and gas of 4 %.
Progressive reduction of NG Imports.
Reduction of residential NG consumption for heating.
Diversification of Power Matrix.
New electrical plants Growth of residential power demand in winter.
ASSUMPTIONS 2013-2023
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
40.000
45.000
50.000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
MW
Forecast of Power Supply and Demand
Power Demand including new residential demand for heatingPower DemandInstalled CapacityPower Available
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Summer Winter Summer WinterResidential 20 76 Residential 0 0Industries 46 27 Industries 82 85Thermals Plants 46 20 Thermals Plants 62 60Other uses 10 10 Other uses 10 10Total MMm3/d 122 133 Total MMm3/d 144 144
2012 Summer Winter 2023 Summer WinterHidro 2907 3252 Hidro 5186 5532Nuclear 458 540 Nuclear 686 810Renewable 25 25 Renewable 1359 1359Termic with NG 5692 2461 Termic with NG 9751 9469Termic with fuels 1294 4249 Termic with fuels 0 0Imports 51 13 Imports 0 0GWh-mes 10425 10541 GWh-mes 16982 17170
2012 2023
Power Generation (GWh-mes)
Natural Gas Consuption MMm3/dNatural Gas Consuption MMm3/d
Power Generation (GWh-mes)2012 2023
RESULTS:
Considering assumptions and policies proposed, Argentine power matrix would evolve towards the following scheme:
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RESULTS:The expected 2023 Power Matrix will generate less greenhouse emissions. This way the emissions of power matrix would be reduced from 0.38 ton eq. of CO2 to 0.14 ton eq. of CO2/MWh.
2023 % GWh Tn eq. Of CO2Hidro 31,2% 63.960Nuclear 4,3% 8.857Renewable 8,0% 16.303Termic with NG 56,5% 115.601 28.192.835Termic with fuels 0,0% 0Imports 0,0% 0Total 100% 204.720 28.192.835
TN eq CO2/MWh
2023 Argentine Power Matrix Greenhouse Gases Emissions
0,14
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The replacement of argentine natural gas residential consumption by electricity will:
Increase the availability of supply to the Industry.
Reduce to 0 the use of liquid fuels.
Reduce Greenhouse Gases Emissions.
Turn positive Energy Trade Balance.
CONCLUSIONS
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THANK YOU
