I

l

I

Human Settlements and Alternative Future Population Projections for

Bangladesh

The Declaration of Principles, circulated by the Secretary-General of HABITAT:

United Nations Conference on Human Settlements, clearly states the significance of future population growth for all human settlements. This Declaration: .

"Recognizes that the cir>cwnstances of life for vast numbers of :·cople in hwnan settlements are unacoeptable and that unless positive and conc::•{].te action is take7: �t natior.a� and international, levels to find and implement solutions, these cond�t�ons �re Z�kely to be further aggravated by the oo�tinuation of:

Population gr�:.Jth �hich ?vilZ near?,y double the nwnbers of mankind in the next 25 yeai�s, thereby more than douhZing the need for food, sheZter and all other requirements for Zife and human dignity."

To meet the basic requirements for life and human dignity, each country will have to make great efforts as from now, and maintain them throughout the coming 25 years. In view of the tremendous adjustments and changes needed in existing national and international policies and trends, the target year 2000 is very near.

To help throw light on the implications of Bangladesh's population growth on its own human settlement planning, please find attached a set of projections pre­pared during the World Population Year 1974 for use by the United Nations and the Government of Bangladesh.

Projections are made for five different levels for Bangladesh's population in the year 2000, based on different assumptions about family size. The data indicate that if Bangladesh attains a 2-child family norm by the year 2000 (contrasted with a continuation of the average 6.3 children per family estimated for 1970), their population would be dramatically lower by 53 million fewer people.

It is significant that this difference of 53 million people represents 74 percent of the 1970 population. Furthermore, Bangladesh's population growth rate would decline from the estimated 2.2 percent in 1970 to. 1.3 percent by the turn of the century.

To mitigate the human settlements problems caused by too rapid urbanization, the Declaration of Principles provides the following Guideline for Action:

"The d�mograp"r.ic charaoteristics of many countries require policies on growth and distribution of population in order to orient rr.aiaZ-urbc:n migration to ensure orderly prooesses of organization and to minimize rura.Z disperson ?vith the ultimate goal of achieving baZanoed development."

A slower total population growth by itself would relieve the pressures that

contribute to urban migration and congestion because a large percentage of the

growth is due to natural increase,with the rest due to migration from the

countryside.

To throw further light on the implications for Bangladesh's policies influencing growth and distribution of population, the urban projections of the United Nations

Populatio Di i i M 1975 report "Selectedn v s on were used, as presented in their ay, '

2.

World Demographic Indicators by Countries, 1950-2000". They project variants ofthe proportion of population living in cities, ranging from a high of 14 percentto a low of 10 percent for the year 2000. These compare with 6 percent urbanestimated for 1970.

Taking the low urban variant based on a 2-child family norm, as compared witbthe high urban variant based on the current family size, cities in the �ea: ZOOO would contain 13 million fewer people; This urban projection of 13 million fewer people is 295 percent of the urban population estimated for 1970•

Even if the low population projection is achieved, the country must still planfor a vast increase in population, requiring considerably more resources than are now available to maintain present living standards, with too many people already poor. And it will require substantially more resources to improve living standards,especially for the poor majority.

The attached set of projections also estimate when and at what level the popu­lation of Bangladesh would stabilize if the 2-child family were achieved by 2000and maintained thereafter. The projection shows that its total population would continue to increase throughout the 21st century because of the large proportion of young people today. Under thi� assumption, the pop�lation would stabilize around the year 2120 at a level of 210 million or 2.9 times the 1970 estimated population.

Clearly, lower national and urban populations that would result from sound population growth and distribution policies integrated with balanced development plans, would considerably improve the prospects for solving the problems of human set-tlements in Bangladesh. They would more effectively realize the goal stated in the Declaration of Principles:

"7he foremost goaZ of hwnan settZement poZicy is the rapid and continuous ir:provement in the quaZity of Zife of aZZ peopZe, beginning with the satisfaction of the basic needs of food, sheZter, enrpZoyment, health, freedom, dignity and op?ortunity for personal, fuZfiZZment without discrimination as to race, colour, sex, 'language, reZigion, opinion, national, or sociaZ origin or other cause."

Comments or questions about the attached materials may be directed to the Coordinators for Habitat and Population: Lawrence R. Kegan and Page H. Wilson

Suite 200, 1835 K Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20006, U.S.A.

SOME PROJECTIONS OF

THE POPULATION OF

BANGLADESH

Prepared during World Population Year 1974

for use by the United Nations and by the Government

of Bangladesh

SOME PROJECTIONS OF THE POPULATION OF BANGLADESH

The University of Chicago's Community and Family Study Center (CFSC) is making a study of world population possibilities as part of their on-going research in developing family planning targets. Hypothetical projections outline the population trends that would follow varying courses of fertility. They were developed by a team of demographers, composed of Jeanne C. Sinquefield, Deputy Director of the CFSC, University of Chicago; K. C. Zachariah of the Population and Human Resources Division of the World Bank, in his personal capacity; Donald J. Bogue, Director of CFSC, University of Chicago; and Peter Gardiner of the International Statistical Program Center, United States Bureau

of the Census.

The series of estimates of future populations were made on comparable bases for most of the developing countries of the world. They are obviously neither projections of probable futures, nor do they attempt to assess possible future fertility reductions that may be considered by those countries as a

basis for planning their development policies, which include population as an integral part of their development plans. Although they are not appropriate for planning in the individual countries, they may be valuable in outlining the broad possibilities of the future according to the course of fertility.

The computer printouts and the summary tables of the hypothetical pro­jections for Bangladesh are attached.

This brief note highlights some findings that bear on four questions as to the future population of Bangladesh.

1. What would be the levels of total population for Bangladesh by 1985and 2000 on five different fertility assumptions if life expectancy steadily increases and there is no net migration?

tf the average family size in Bangladesh remained constant at the estimated

1970 level of 6.3 children (Series 1), the population would reach 112 million by 1985 and 188 million by 2000. The population would be slightly over two and three-fifths times the 1970 estimated population.

If, on the other hand, the 2-child family norm that assures replacement

were achieved by the year 2000 (Series 5), the population of Bangladesh would

reach 103 million by 1985 and 135 million by 2000. The increase would be

between one-half and three-fifths that projected with constant fertility. The

growth rate would rise slightly from 2.2 percent in 1970 to 2.3 percent in 1985

and fall to 1.3 percent in 2000. The crude birth rate of 44 in 1970 would

reach 36 by 1985 and 21 by 2000.

Three intermediate assumptions as to future trends in fertility are also

shown in the attached tables: an average family size of 3.5 children (Series 2),

3 children {Series 3) and 2.5 children (Series 4) by the end of the century.

5/22/74

2-

2• If the 2-child family were achieved in Bangladesh by 2000 (Series 5) and continued thereafter, when and at what level would its population stabilize?

Even if the 2-child family were reached by 2000 and continued thereafter, the population would increase slowly throughout the Twenty-First Century because of the large proportion of young people today. Under this assumption, the popu­lation would reach stabilization around the year 2120 at a level of 200 million, an increase of 75 million over the projected population in 2000 (Series 5) and almost three times the 1970 estimated population.

3. What are the implications of the changes in population for the achieve­ment of development goals in Bangladesh? The printouts give more detailed break­downs by five-year age groups for the years 1970, 1985 and 2000 which permit some analysis of this question. (Still more detailed tables by single year of age and for all the quinquennial periods between 1970 and 2000 are available by writing the CFSC, the University of Chicago, attention Dr. Jeanne C. Sinquefield.)

. Health goals are reflected in the assumptions of increased life expectancy. Each of the projections has the uniform assumption that life expectancy at birth will increase from an estimated 1970 rate of 42.8 years for females and 42.4 years for males to 53.6 years and 53.2 years by 1985, and 61.0 years and 60.6 years by 2000, respectively. Further increases are assumed in the Twenty-First Century to 74.3 years and 74.2 years, respectively.

A larger population would cost more than a smaller population to realize the same goals in education. The number of school-age children between the ages of 6 and 17 is estimated at 23 million in 1970. Under the constant fertility assumption for Bangladesh (Series 1) this is projected to reach 32 million in 1985 and 59 million in 2000, or 2.5 times the 1970 level. But if the replacement rate of the 2-child norm were reached by 2000 (Series 5), the number of these school­age children would increase to 30 million in 1985 and 37 million in 2000.

A larger population results over time in a larger working-age population between the ages 15 and 64. On this definition, the projected working-age popu­lation in 1985 would be equal under the different fertility assumptions. The working-age population in 2000 would range around 2.5 times the 1970 level with an absolute difference of 7,9 million working-age people between the constant fertility model (Series 1) and the replacement model (Series 5). The full utiliz­ation of the projected working-age population depends on the availability of jobs and employment in the future.

The different rates of population growth would result in substantial

differences in the relation between the number Of child dependent age groups under

15 who make demands on, but contribute little to production, and those in the

working-age population who do contribute to production. The 1970 child dependency

ratio for Bangladesh is estimated at .92. Under the constant fertility model

(Series 1), the ratio would fall to .90 in 1985 and rise to .94 in the_year 2000.

Under the replacement rate model (Series 5) the respective ratios would be .75

and .52.

3-

4• Fertility reductions are achieved by an increase in the proportionof women averting births. This proportion is influenced by a variety offactors, including the proportion of women currently married (or exposed) ateach age. Assuming these other factors remain constant how many married fecundwomen in the child-bearing ages (15-49) must avoid givi�g birth in 1985 toachieve the replacement goal by 2000 (Series 5)?

It is estimated that in Bangladesh at least 5.0 million fecund married women in the child-bearing ages avoided births in 1970 by some method of family planning (referred to as "the total family planning target" in the table), when the average family size was 6.3 children. This amounted to 33 percent of the total female population in the age groups 15-49 and 45 percent of the fecund married women at that time.

If the replacement level were reached by 2000, then "the total family planning target" in 1985 would require at least 11 million women averting births, resulting in an average family size of 4.3 children. At that time the proportion of women in "the total family planning target" would have to increase to 47 percent of the total female population in the age group 15-49.

On this set of projections, the additional births averted are estimated at 3.5 million in 1985, compared with 175 thousand in 1970.

BANGLADESH / Total Population According to Two Fertility Assumptions, 1970-2100

POPULATION IN MILLIONS

210

POPULATION IN MILLIONS

175

140

105

70

35

Year stability is reached Series 1. Constant fertility Series 5. Declining fertility

NRA= 1.00 in 2000

175

140

105

70

35

0 ..__ _ ____.1,,...,_ _ __., __ _... __ ......_ __ ....._ __ ....._ __ ....._ __ ..&...-__ .,__ _ ___,JL._ _ __JL._ _ __J __ __J 0

2100 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070

YEAR

SOURCE: International Statistical Programs Center, U.S. Bureau of the Census, based on data provided by the Community and Family Study Center, University of Chicago, January 1974.

\C 00""JO"IU1 •' WNl-'O \D

2090

(IQ (1)

BANGLADESH \ School-Age �?pulation (6-17 Years) According to Two Fertility Assumptions, 1970, 1985, and 2000POPULATION IN MILLIONS

60 POPULATION IN MILLIONS

48 I :::: �: �:::: ::::i:NRR= 1.00 in 2000

36

24 ALL SERIES

12

OL----1970 1985

YEAR

2000

Total Women of Reproductive Age, Women at Risk of BANGLADESH Pregnancy and Number Averting Births Under Assumption

of Declining Fertility For 1970, 1975, 1980 and 1985

60

48

36

24

12

POPULATION IN MILLIONS POPULATION IN MILLIONS

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

i- Total Women

-At risk

-Averting births

1970 YEAR

S Bureau of the Census, based on data provided by the SOURCE: International Statistical Programs Ce�ti:::.,r�tY· of Chicago, January 1974.

Community and Family Study Center, "'

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

ge

1

2

3

4

6

7

8

9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0

I.

II.

Table of ContentsCOMPUTER PRINTOUTS AND SUMMARY TABLES

page Po ulation Pro ections b p· b d · 1.ve-Year Peri d e on var1.ous fertil"t

o s1 y rates

1970-2000

Series 1: Series 2: Series 3:

Constant fertilit at 197 Decreasin f . ! 0 level to year 2000 •.•.••...•.•... 1

Deer i g ert1.l1.ty to 3.5 child average by year 2000 ..•••• 2

Series 4: Series 5:

Decreas

_ng fertility to 3.0 child average by year 2000 ••...• 3

eas1.ng fert·1· De . 1 1.ty to 2.5 child average by year 2000 .•..•• 4

creas1.ng fert · 1 · level) by year �ot�Y to 2.0 child average (replacement

. . . • . . . . • . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . • . . . . . . • . • 5

Population Stabilization Pro,·ect1.·ons ( d 1 _ time and level) based on ec ine to replacement level by year 20 _ _ 00 (Series 5)

Summary Table, Year 2000 to YearDetailed Table for Year 2050

in which Stabilization is Reached ....• 6

Detailed Table for Year of s�·h:i:···:·· .............................. .

a i ization, ............................. .

7

8

III. Age and Sex Distribution Projections based on various fertilityrates, by five-year age groups

IV.

1970 Base Figures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

1985 Series l:

Series 2:

Series 3:

Series 4:

Series 5:

2000 Series 1:

Series 2:

Series 3:

Series 4:

Series 5:

Constant fertility at 1970 level to year 2000 .•.••..•.••• Decreasing fertility to 3.5 child average by year 2000 .•• Decreasing fertility to 3.0 child average by year 2000 ••• Decreasing fertility to 2.5 child average by year 2000 .•. Decreasing fertility to 2.0 child average (replacement level) by year 2000 •.....•...•...••••...••.•....••..•.••.

Constant fertility at 1970 level to year 2000 .•••......•• Decreasing fertility to 3.5 child average by year 2000 ... Decreasing fertility to 3.0 child average by year 2000 .•• Decreasing fertility to 2.5 child average by year 2000 .•• Decreasing fertility to 2.0 child average (replacementleve 1) by year 2 000 . .....................................

10

11 12 13

14

15 16 17 18

19

Family Planning Target Projections (1970-1985) based on decline to

replacement level by year 2000 .••••••...•••.......•.•............•...•••.• 20

-

1970.

TOTAL POPULATION (JULY u 7.15�1.

HALES 367U .•

f:HAli:S 34ti30.

CRUOE BIRTH RATc ( Pi:R THOt.-SANO POP.) 43.5

C?.UDE OEATH f<.AT c: (PER THO�SAND PuP.) . 21.2

GkGWTH R.IIT: (PCT .. ) l.-22

LIFt EXPECTANCY Al BIR TH

l lN Y t:ARS J

M�Lt: ct2.40

fi:MALt 42 .. oO.

INFANT M�RTALITY kATc

(Pilk 1000 BI�THS) 164.7

TUTAL FERTILITY k"' TE 6 • .-!95

GRCSS REPRCOUCTIVE RATE 3.071

AGE �PECIFIC ffRTlLJTY

15-19

20�21t25-29

30-J't35 ·3940-'t't

45-49

Ni;.T Rt: PRCOUCTI Ye RATc:

f\ATc

0.22-.0

0.3070 0.3040

0.2300 o. 1350

0.0470

0.0120

2.001

-·- ·- ---

1975.

80052 •

"'1 397.

39255 .

47.5

17.5

3.00

47.60

4o.UO

132.7

6.295

3.011

0.22 .. 0

0.3070

0 • .3040

0.2.300

O.lJ!>O

0.0470

o.ouo

2.193

FlVE-Yc:AR INT t:RVAL SUMMAkY TA&Li: CFSC 100

BA,�GLAOE �H - ScRIES fllO. 1

YEAR

1980. l'i85. 1990. 1995. 2000.

944<16. 111784. 132476. 1574�8. 18 81 24.

48489. 57J81. 68011. uoa1t1. 96616.

45977. 54403. 64465. 76597. 91508.

4&.7 47.6 45.5 44.9 45 .2

1s.e 13.S 11.4 9.9 a.9

3. 29 3.40 3.41 .3.50 3.63

50.20 53.20 56 .. 20 58.60 60.c,O

50.60 53.oO 56.oO 59.00 01 .. 00

118.2 101.9 86.8 75.3 66.l

6.295 6.29S 6.295 6.295 6.29�

3.071 3.071 3.071 3.071 3.071

0.2240 0.2240 0.2240 0.2240 0 .2240 0.3070 o • .3070 0.3070 0.3070 0.3070. 0.30't0 0.3040 0.3040 0.3040 0.3040 0.2300 0.2300 0.2JOO 0.2.JOO 0.2300 0 .. 1.350 0.13�0 \). 1350 0.1350 0.1350 0.0470 0.0470 0.0470 o.u-.10 0.0470 0.0120 u.0120 0.0120 0.0120 0 .0120

2.280 2.39.3 2.4<.,� 2.5l,j 2.636

FlY�•Y;AR lNTcRVAL SUMMA�Y TA�L� CFSC 10;.i

OA."H,LAOcSH - St:i, 1ES N.J. .ie

YEAK

1970. 1975. 1980. 1965. 1990. 1995. 2000.

TOTAL POPULATlC�

(JULY 11 71551. 80086. 91906. 105l6t3 • 119560. 134466. 149650.

MALES 36722. 4llO!i. 47178. 54050. 61383. 09043. 76847.

FEMALcS .34'330. 38<J76. 4472S • 5ll3d. Sd177. 65"t23. 7 280.3.

C.RUuE BIRTH RAlc:.

lPiR THOUSANO PuP.) 43.5 4't.3 42.6 39.3 35.2 31.8 28.8

CRUDE DEATH RATE lP�R THuUSANO POP.) .21.2 11.0 1 5.1 12.a 10.7 9.4 s.s

G"C\olTH RATE; l PCT•) 2.22 2.12 2.76 2.65 2.45 2.2s 2.03

L lfc EXP EC.TANGY 1.4.T Blk.TH l lN YEARS)

MALc 4l.40 41.t>O 50.20 53 • .20. 56.20 58.60 60.60

FEMALE 42.dU 4d.C,0 50.60 53.oO 56 .60 59.00 61.00

lr-.F.,l\'T MCRT �LITY �ATE

(P2� 1000 alRTHS) 164.7 13.2.7 118. 2 101.9 &6.8 75. 3 66.l

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE 6.2.95 5.829 5.363 4. 1:19 7 4.432 J.966 3 .5 00

G�OSS REPRODUCTIVE RATE 3.G71 2.843 2.616 2.38 9 2.162 l.93!i 1.101

AGE SPcClFIC FERTILITY RATc

15-19 0.224 0 O.l01't 0. 190d 0.1743 0.1577 0.1411 o.121ts20-24 0.3070 0.2843 0.2616 0.2388 0.2161 0.1934 0.1101

25-29 0.3040 0.2815 0.2590 0.2365 0.2140 0.1915 0.1690 30-34 O.ljOO 0 • .C:130 0.1960 0.1709 o.lbl9 0.1449 0.127CJ 35-39 o.uso 0.12!>0 o.uso 0.1050 0.0950 0.0850 0.01,1 40-44 0.0 .. 10 o. 043 !> 0.0!t00 o.03oo 0.0331 O.Cl296 0.0£ol 45-49 0.0120 0.0111 0.0102 0.00�3 O.OOd4 o.c,o lb o.00Q1

�.::T kc PROOUC T 1 VE RATE 2.001 2 .U30 1.�lttJ 1.862 1.756 1.621 1.�05

w

1970.

TuTAL POPULATION

(JULY U 71551.

MALES 367 22.

FEHALi:S 34830.

CRUDE 61RTH kATc (PER THOUSAND POP.) 43.5

cr..ur.;E DEATH RATE

(PER THGUSANU P�P.) 21.2

\iRuWTH RATE (PCT.J 2.22

LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIR.TH l IN YEARS)

MALE 42 ... 0

FtMALE 42.80

INFANT MORTALITY RATE lPrR 1000 8lRThS) 164.7

TOTAL FcRllllT\' kATc: 6.295

GkCSS REPRGOUCTIY£ RATE 3.071

AGE SPECIFIC ftRTILlTY

15-19

20 ·2',

25-29

30-34

35··3940-44

45-49

Nd Rt:PRCDUCTIVE RATE

RATc

0.2240

0.3070

0.3040

0.230\)

0 .1350

C.0470

0.0120

2.001

- ·- - --·

1975.

79'185.

41056.

38928.

4::J.7

11.0.

2.b7

47.bO

48.00

13,.7

5. 746

2.aol

0.2045

0.2802

0.2775

0.2100

0.1232

0.0429 0.0110

2.001

FIVt-YcAR JNTc�VAL !>UMHARY lASLi; CFSC 106

oAiiGLA&lf::iH - Sd<.lcS Nu. 3

YEAR

1980. 1985. 1990. 1995. 2000.

91450. 1O't132. 117266. 130429. 1-\3049.

�6945. 53458. 60206. 66970. 73455.

44505. 50674. 57061. E.3459. 69594.

41.5 37.7 33.2 zc;. 2 zs.�

14.9 12.6 10.6 9.3 s."

2.66 2.51 z.2s 1.99 1.10

50.20 53.20 56 .20 sa.to 60.oO

50.oO 5.:..60 56. 60 59.00 61.00

118.2 101-9 86.8 75.3 66 .l

s.1<.10 4.649 4.100 3.551 3.003

2.535 2.268 2.000 1.732 1.lt65

0.1849 0 .1654 0.1459 0.1264 0.1068 0.2535 0.2267 0.2000 0.1732 0 .l't6't 0.2510 0.2245 0.1980 0.1715 0.1450 0.1899 0.1699 0 .1498 0.1298 0.10-il 0.1115 0.0997 0.0879 0.0762 O.O<>'tltO.OJ88 .0.0�47 0.0306 0.0.:!65 O.Olllt0.0099 0.0089 0.0078 o.ooots 0.00,1

1.887 1.767 1.625 1.1ts2 1.257

FIVE-YEAR lttTERYAL SUMMARY TABLE CFSC · 109

BANGLADESH

TOTAl POP\JI.ATlCN lJULY U

1970.

11551.

367i2.

1975.

79883.

41004.

1980.

90989.

lt6709.

198,.

102962.

52858. KALES

FEMALES 34830. ____ 38878. ____ 44280.; ______ SOlO-t.

CRUDE SlRlK RATE ,PER THOUSAND POP.I: 43 .5

CRUCE OEATH RATE (PER TH�USANO P�P.J. 21.2

GRClollH llATE 'PCT .J 2.22

LlFE EXPECTANCY At BIRTH UK YE.Ar.SJ

tlALE 42.40.

FEMALE 42.80.

INFANT �ORTALllY �Ale (PE� 1000 BlRTl'\S) lt.4.T

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE 6.295

GRCSS RcP�COUCTlVE RATE 3.011

AGE SPECIFIC fE�TlllTY RATE

15-19 20-24 ZS-29 30-34 35-3940-"t44S-ie9

NET flEPRCOUCTl�E RATE

0.2240. 0.3070. 0.3\)40. 0.2300 o.1.3so.0.0,.10.0.0 120.

2.01)1

43.i

16.9

47 .60.

48 .00.

132.7

5.662

2.762

0.2015 0.2761 0.2734 0.2069 0.1214 0.0423 0.0101

1-972

Z • .56

50.ZO.

S0.60.

118.2

5.030.

0.1790. 0.2453 o.21oz90.18380.10790.03760.0096

1.826

TFR IN YEAR 2000 IF NRR•l-0.EQUALS 2.388284

• • • • •

12.s

2.36

53.20,

53.60.

101.9

4 .397

2.u,

0.1565 0.2l"t4 0.2123 0.1607 0.0943

. 0.0328 0.0084

1.671

- SERIES NO. °'

YEAR

· 1990.

59014.

55930.

31.0.

10.,

z.os

56.20.

56.60.

86e8

3.764

0.13�0, 0.1836 0.1818 0.1375 o.oco10.02810.0012

1.49z

1995.

126351.

64879.

61-178.

Z6.-t

9.2

1.72

. 58.60;

59.00.

75.3

3.132

1.528

0.1114 0.1527 0.1512 0.11.r.+ 0.0672 0.0234 0.0060;

1.280.

PLEASE �OTE THAT PROJECTIONS WfRE RUN IN SPITE OF AN INPUT ERROR

2000.

70058.

66381.

.. ,

21.a

8 • .3

le.35

�O.t.O ..

61.00;

z.499

1.219

O.C8890�12190.12070.09130.05)60.0ld7o.oo-.8

1.046

FlVE-Y::AR INTi:11.VAL SUMMARY TABLE CFSC 112

BANGLADESH - seues NO. 5

YEAR

1970. l97S. 1980. 1985. 1990. l9SS. 2000.

TOTAL POPULATION (JULY u 11551. 79860. 90 885. 102699. 114422. 12.5'"3- 134963.

".\LES 36722. 4C9�3. 46656. 52723. 53746. 64409. 693CO.

Fi;�AlES 34830. 388(»7 • 44230.;. 't9976. 55676. 61034. 65663.

CRUDE un., �ne

(Pc:R TttCUSA"O PGP.) 43.s 43.0. 40.1 35.1 30.S 25. 7 20.9

c.;.utE CfAlH P.ATE

IPl� THLUSA�O PGP.) 21.2 l«ii.9 H.8 lZ.5 10 • .s 9.1 8.3

Gill.:'oiTH RATE IPCT.J 2.22 2.61 z.s+ z.32 2.01 J.66 1.26 .

L lf c E lt?i:C Tl.i�C 't AT BIRTH ll:-& 't f;AkS l

-MALt: 42 • .too-.-··-·· · 47.60·.--- 50.20 _- • ·53.zo :· 56.20 :·· ··-·

58.60: 60.60·:·

fENALE .toz.eo 48 .. -1)0 50.60. 53.60 56.60 59.00. 61.00.

1:�FA"-T MC;..T;.lllY RATE (p:,_,. 1000 SltHHSj 164.7 132.7 118.2 101:..9 86.8 75.3 66-1

T�TAL FERTlLlT't �ATE 6.2'i5 5.643 4.992 4.340. 3.689 3.037 Z.386

����s Rt�F-�UUCTlVE RATc 3.071 2.753 2.43S 2.117 1. 799 1.402 1.16-'t

J.G.i SPctltlt FE�TJLlTY RATE

15-19 0.2240 0.2:>0B 0.1776 0.1S't4 0.1313 o.1oe1 0.0849 20-2lt 0.�Cl0 O •. HS2 c;. 2435 0.2117 0.1199 o.1.r,a1 Oell61t

25-29 o.3c.r,o o.zns o.2u1 0.2C96 G. 1781 0.1467 o. 11s2

::;;;-3,. 0.2300 0.Z0(;L o.1i,�,. 0.1:iij6 C.13'td 0.1110 O.C872

,;;; ·3'1 o. l.?50 c.1210 C.l,Hl 0.093,1 o.,H9.1 0 .Ct.>1 o.o:Hz 4U-4"' 0.0470 o .c-.21 0.0.3l;j 0.032-\ o.021s 0.C227 0.0178

-. ., 45--\9 0.0120 0.0108 O.O.J9!> 0.Ci>S.3 0.0010 o .cose 0.00t,S

NET Ri:PRCC.'-CTIVE RATE 2.001 1.966 1-813 1.650 1 .... 62 1.241 0.999

Tf� I� YcU 2000 IF NRk•l.O EQu.\LS 2.l282E°'

,. ,. - . .

Pl.c:J.Sc NOT.: T�AT PJ.OJC:CTlvN� •cilc AU,i IN SPITE CF AN It.PUT Elo,..C,R

- . . .. ·-· - - .. . . . . - . - . . - . . .

-- -- ·-·-·· . . -· . ...

Yonr :f n Which Serios No. 5 Projection Fora �H Zero Growth Rate

ia Roa.chod

2000 2025 2050 2100 (2120)

Total Populution (Jo.nwu-y 1) 134,112 178,340 202,000 209,537 209,859 Mn.loo 68,863 91,537 · 103,614 107,444 107,565 Fomaloa 65,249 86,803 98,386 �02,093 102,294

Cru<1o�n1rth Rnte (Par Thouonnd Population) 20.9 16.2 -14�4 13.7 13.7

Cruclo Donth Ro.to (Par Thounnnd Population) 8 • .3 8.8 12.4 13.7 1.3.7

Growth Rnto (percent) 1.26 0.74 0.20 o.oo o.oo

Liro Expoctru1cy at Birth (in youro)

Mt.llO:J 60.60 68.40 71.70 74.20 74.20 1',omnloa 61.00 68.60 71.80 74.30 74.30

In fun t K:>rtnli ty Rato (lJor 'l'hounru1d Dirtha) 66.l 3.3.7 22 • .3 U..8 14.s

Totnl Fortility· Ro.to 2.386 2.210 2.150 2.110 2.110 . Groao Reproductive Rate 1.164 1.078 1.049 1.029 1.029 Age-Spocific Fertility Rate

15-19 .0849 · .079 .076 .075 .075 20-21.,

.1164 .108 • .105 .103 .103 25-29 .1152 .107 .104 .102 .102 30-JI., .0872 .081 .079 .0'"/7 .077 35-39 .0512 .047 .046 .045 .045 1.,0-1.1.,

.0178 .016 .016 .016 .016 45:l.,9 .0045 .004 .004 .004 .004

O' Net Reproduct.1 vo Rate 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

HA1111;L Alli: SH

AGI: tllllH SEXl:S ..... - ··----·-·· ·-----

�ALE .. Fl:(�ALE S: HIIJH SF.XES X MALE l __ F_F._�AL� .. __. -·----- · - ·······. -------· ... ··--- . ·····--A�L AGl:S 2c,2000. _ll(3fil4. _ 'Jll3H6. ___ 100.oo _________ ,100.oo ____ io.P •.. O.P ____

_ _ 0- 4 14277. 7Bh. b94?.. 7.07 7.0A 7.06 -,-· 9-. ·14;>23.···-·- 'i3·1,. -·-6C:,ii�-�----7�·,·14- 1.oo---:.,�ii2-10- 14 ___ 14114. 17.bO. 611�,3. 6.99 1.01 6.97 l'>- 19 l:19HO. 719] 0 ··-··67kH 0 t,.92 6 0 94 t,.'10 ;w- 24 l3':13i;. 7170. ·6765 0 6.90 ft.97. t,.HA 2�- 29 140:�?.. . 77.7.4 •

....

611()1!. 6.11, h.97 -t,.9f __ _

30- 34 14111). 7315. t,H7,. 7.n3 _____ 7.06 6.<l'I :-s,- 39 14!.tH!>. 77.71. 6Kl4. ;.;;,/7 7.<i2·-·--··t,;.'13

°·-

41l- 44 13471'1. 6'JA', 0 6',17.. t,.67 ···-·····-- (-..17. 6.t.7. _____ _ 4�- 4'J 17.371. 63':IH. 5972. 6.17. h.lH 6.07 !>O- ',4 124'16. Mtil • 61135. -···- ... 6.19 t..?.4 ___ ..... "• B ','.:,- ',9 l?.ll7H. M,13. .t>ill 5o 6d',

---··· ··ft.3H b.37. ht)- h4 12?4?.. 671-.3. ',9HO. i, 0 ()6 (-,.()4 h.Wi t,',- 69 10h46. ',3Ht, 0

',7fto: ----·5�,>i ·--·5.20---·---5.3', __ _

70- 74 8049. 4013. 4(136 0 3.9H 3.1n 4.JO 1,- 79 4910. 2399. 7.'>11. 2.43 2.32 ... ···7.5; AO+ 214'>. 1033. 1112. 1.06 1.00 .... l•.��

·-·--.· ·---·-·----··--··------------

Cl<llllt: !ill(lH l(AH: 70'>0 - 7.U',', = 14.35

CRllDI: l)EA1H kATt 20'>0 - 7.0',5 • ]7..3',

i<AlF. Of· Nfllll�AL INC�l:ASE 7.f?'H> .'.':.20�5 .. =._ .l•O) ___________________ _

f�MAL� LIFE EXPECTA�CY AT �IRTH 20!>0 - 7.0',', = 71.RO_

MALE LIH tX�ECTANCY AT HIRTH 2050 - 2055 = "/1.70 ______ ···-·

AGr SPtCIF-JC t'F.RTIL_ITY_ l<ATEt 2 0�()_:_?J:!� . .?-"' .. :�1��--------·-·--·----­

.104 • c,79 • 046 .011, • 004 ........... --· .. - .. ---····--·· ·- ·-

llllAL Bll<lHS 20!10 - 20!15"'

lUlAL DtAlHS 20!10 - 2055 •

1456 7.

17531.

-· . ·- .

I NFANl Mllll l_ALI TY -�AT_!: 7.0!10 __ - .. ?.<!�5-. �----···· �?•_2_1 __ ···--- ------·- .. -----

1lllAL MALE MJC.Ri\lllTS 2050 � 2055 = O.

11111\L t=E�ALI= MJl;RANTS 2050 - 2055 = o.

1

11M11;1.1111t-\tl

tllllH St'XtS

All AC�t:� _20(JH'>'I.

0- 4 l4lf'IO..,_ Y 141:11.

10- 14 14114.l'>- 19 140(Jl. 20- 24 140'>3.2'> .,; 2'1 140117. :-\o- 34 B'l.,.f. Y:>- :\9 l:1H</4 0

40- 44 13"(47.4'>- 49 13()46.'>O- '>4 1:1:no. '>'>- . .,'I 12916. t,()- 1,4 1221'>. h'>- 69 1113'1, 70- 74 9'><J3. 1'>- 1'1 7220. KO+ 364ij,

il]i'O

MALI: ::i: HMfllE

l07'>h5 • .. J!>7._294 ·- __ _1011.00 •. 100.oo ______ l(lO,OO. ·--

71.71 o bHliH •-----�-• "(5 f'l,_11, ___ !>•:{3_····-i2bc,.·--··ti1n"t. t,,n 6,7'> t,,12

72'>2, 6H6l., 6,73 h,74 t,,71 __ 124 o. - ··· -611 s n. ------

,,. 1 c-----6. n -· ·---- n � ·rn7220, 6H32. 6,70 t,,71 t,,6H 7 l'ltl o f,HO'I. t,.1,·1 6.f'l9 . ·;.,.t,f, --·-

7171,. l>.fHi, t,.t,5 ___ 6,f'l7 6.f.3 I 1,11. 6744_-----,;�;,[ ,;.,;·f-- -i,;'j'l-

"flOA. 6Ml9. 1,.57 h.hl f>.54 703H. 6001.· t,.50 --· �.54 6,41, 61/00. 6470. 6.37 __ -- __ t,.41 1,,37 6b!:>5. 6761. 6.15 h.19 6.12 f>?.h3. 5'157.. ':, 0 147. !>.K7. i;,147. _ _ .,,,66. 5473. - s.31 ,.n s.3;47H2, 4721. 4.53 4o45 4.hl_3',90. 3h30. 3,44 3.34 3.'>!:> 1793, lH':,4, l o 74 1,67 lo Hl

CIWllE tHKlH MAH' 2120 - 2125 • B.71

CRUIJI: l>l:AlH !-<Alt: 717.0 - 2125 • 13,71

RAlc UI- NAlllRAL IIIICIU:_flSF. 7.170 .-:. 2}7'? __ ,._-.1��!)1 _________________________ _

1-E�Alt: LIFI: EXPECTANCY AT HIRTH 2120 - 7.17.'> = 74.30

MALI: Lll-t l:XPECTANCV AT HIRTH 2120 - 7.125 = 74.20

AGt: SPl:C IF-JC �tRl I LI TV RAT�S _?_po __ -:..2 !.?:�.-=--: �,�� _________ ·- ---··-··

• 107. .o.,-,-·

• 045,016

. ___________ .li04 ___________________ ---

101AL HJHlHS 217.0 - 2125 •

TlllAL IJt::lllHS 217.0 - 212'> 11

143H3.

14391.

JNI-AN1 MIIHlALITV H.ATE 2120 -_2J7,2 __ •

101AL MALE MIGRANTS 2120 - 2125 =

lUlAL F�MALf MIGRANTS 2120 � 2125 •

14.77 ·r-··-- . -·---· ·-----·-····· .. -------

o.

···.----------·-·-·· - -- .. ···--·-· ' ·

.

SikicS NO. 1 Pf<GJc.C-T!ON FOR BANGLADESH CFSC 97

l97u CJAt\UA,iY 1)

P JPtJL�T iC,i t'·.;.�C.;.NT OIST;-duuT IC.I'.

AGE TulAL M.l le. Fi=MAL� TLi"Al MAL 1: Ff.MAL c

r .... T 1-L 70756. �l).:H2. 344<+4. ltC. tC 100.00 1 Cv. O.J

o- 't 12�13. t.-tC6. 0107. l 1. 08 17.o4 17.73 -;- 'i l054u. :>415. )l� 5 • l4.SO 14 • .Jl 14 •. dS

10 · lit . S78l. 4c; ',2. 4770 • 1.,.a3 lJ.75 13."}l

15-19 7919. 4047. :,ei72. 11.1, 11.L> 11.24 2�24 :;soo. 3J3l. l<>:J5. d • .2'J cJ. 3!:i B.23

25-29 3894. 202d. 1866. 5 • .50 ;;.,a 5.42 30-34 3C,OO. 2.l2d. 1�12. .).)1 !>.S& 5.43

35 39 37.:.9. 1-:1 �:;. 1790. 5.30 s.J9 5. 2040-44 2d7c3. 150�. 1369. 4.07 4.16 3. -1745-'t«; 25S9. 13::;4. ll'tj. .:,.c1 3.1.:, J.cl

)0-54 2(,19 • 10 4 7 • � 7;;. �- 85 2.dt} 2.dl

5S-5S lt:28. d.36. 79l.. l.30 i.jQ 2 • .3060 6� ll5l. c::i. 6LO. 1.11 l. 7-t 1.Jot>S-69 ��5. .. �:;. 47v. 1. :H 1. z:,; l. J.>

7"-74 t.:u. 3CO. �jo. ,., • -�o u.d3 6.'Jd

7!>+ o3o. 27�. .'.lt>:,. o·.93 u.1� 1.11

-

0

Sc:RIES NO. l PROJfCTION FOK BANGLADESH CFSC

1985

AGI:

TOTAL

o- It

5- 9

10 lit

15-19

20-24

2S-29

30-3't

35-39

. 40-44

45-49

!>0-Slt

55-59

60-64

65-69

10 74

15+

(JANUARY 1)

, .. ' . ..

TOTAL

10�882.

21345.

16755.

12�00.

11023.

9900.

9020.

7174.

5228.

3411.

3335.

3100.

2201.

1879.

1280.

a1e1.

726.

, · " ..

POPULATiuN

.. .. .· .. PULc

5t404.

'• <·

10?31.

13008.

6469.

5bd1.

5111.

4624.

lb8l.

2710.

1779 •

1726.

1598.

115d.

-l46.

035.

40-).

334.

. t • • . • � , ••

:-� . ·•

I, '" .

f eHALE:

53478.

10414.

8148.

6137.

5337.

47&9.

4395.

3493.

2518.

1632.

1609.

15�2.

110.3.

9;>�.

045.

4.:$3.

393.

...

98

-: ,-. .

PcRCfNT

TOTAL

100.00

, . .. ..

19.42

15.25

11.47

10.03

9.01

a.21

6.53

4.76

3.10

3.03

2.a2

2.00

1.11

1.11

0.11

· 0.66.

•• -i ...

OISTRIBUTJON

MALE fEMALf

100.00 100.00

19.38 19.47

15.26 15.-24

11.47 11.48

10.08 9. 98

9.06 8.95

8.20 8.22

6.53 · 6.53

4.ao 4. 71

3.15 3.053.06 3.01

2.83 2.a12.os 2.06

. l.68 1. 741.13 1.210.12 O.dl

o.ss 0.73

·�·

•• _ .. _ • •

Sc:RlES NO. 2 PP.OJECTlON FJK BANGLADESH CFSC 101

1985 (JANUARY 1) .·, I

. :·. POPULATION .PckCENT OISTRJBUTICN !·· .•r

AGE I TOTAL KALE ftMAL� TOTAL MALE FEMALE

TuTAL 103893. 53334. 505uO. 100.00 100.00 100.00

o- 4ft 11518. 891l. 6547. · 16. ij6 10.a2 16.90

5- 9 · 14996. 7704. 7292. 14.43 l't.44 14.42

10-llt 12202. t2e2. 5940. 11.74 11.74 11-75

15-19 11023. 5od7. 5��7. 10.61 10.66 10.55

20-24 9900. �111. 4789. 9.53 9.5d 9.47

25-29 9020. 4624. 't.395. 8.68 8.67 S.69

3Cr.34 1174. 36ijl. 3493. 6.91 6.90. 6.91

35·39 5226. 2710. 2518. 5.03 s.oa 4.98

"t0-44 .:1411. 177-J. 1632. 3.28 .J.34 3.23

ft.5-49 3335. 1720. 160'i. 3.21 3.24 3.18

:,0-54 3100. 159d. 1502. 2.98 3.00 2.97

55-59 2261. 1158. 1103. 2.1a 2.11 2.18

o0-64 1879. · '='46. 93.3. 1.61 1.11 l.&4 65-69 1280. 6.35. 645. 1.23 1.19 1.2a

70-llt 841. 409. 433. o.a1 0.11 0.80

15+ 126. 331t. 393. 0.10 0.63 0.78

-

-

------ '

- •

�t:.tl 1 cS NC. 3 PROJECTION fuk BANGLAOESH CFSC 104

1985 CJANUARY 11

POPULATION PckCf:NT DIST� Jo UT ION

AGc TOTAL· MALE fa:.MALf TOTAL MALE FEMALE

TOTAL 102828. 5278tt. · SOO'tO • . 100.00 100.00 100.00

0- 4 16838. 8623. ·. 6214. 16.37 16.34 16.42

s- 9 14663. 7:;43. · 7140. 14 • .28 14.29 14. '-.7

10 14 12130. 62i5e' 5'JU6. 11.00 11.79 11.i>O

15-19 11023. Soo7. 5337 • . 10.12 10.77 10 •. 06

20-24 9900.·· 5111. 4769. 9.63 <J.68 9.57

25-29 9020. lt624. · 4395. 8.77 8.7b 8.18

30-34 7174. � 36�1- '. 3493. 6.96 6.97 6.98

35 ··39 5228. 2710. 2518. s.oe 5.13 s.0340-41t 3411 • . 1779. 1632. 3.32 3.37 3.26lt5�9 3335. 172b. lt>09. 3.24 3.27 3.21

50-5/t 3100. 15-;13. 1502. 3.01 3.03 3.ou

55-59 2261. 1158. 1103.· 2.20 2.19 2.20o0-64 1879. 9-=t6. 9)3. 1.83 1.79 1.8665-69 1280. 6�5. 64;. 1.25 1.20 1.2970-74 841. 409. , 433. o.a2 4).77 o.ac,

15+ 126. 334. 393. 0.11 0.63 0.78

-

I___......,..,�· ..

-

SciUe;S NO. 4 PRCJa:CT JON FOR BANGLADESH CFSC

1985 (JANUARY u

POPULATlui

AGc TOTAL MALE Fe MAL�

TOTAL 101149. 522�5. 't9514.

o- 4 16148. 8270 .• 71378. s- 9 14366. 7::,�'1. 6986.

10 ·l't 12057. 6187. 5670. 15-19 11023. 56d7. 53.37. 20-24 9900. 5111. 4789.

25-29 9020. 4024. 4395. 30-34 7174. .. 36dl. 3493 •

· 3j •39 5228. 2710. 2518. 40-44 3411. 1779. 1632. 45-49 3335. 17iC>e 16(,9.

50-54 3100. lj9d. 1�02.

55-59 22tl. . 11 !>ts. 1103 •

oO 64 1879. 940. �33.

o.5-69 . 1280. 035. t:>4!:>.

70-74 841. 40'J. 433.

7!>+ 726. 3�4. 39�.

-

' .

107

PcRCE:NT

TOTAL

100.00

15.87

14.12

11.85

10.d39.73

8.86 7.05 5.14

3.35 3.28

3.05 2.22 l.d5l.2b

. 0.83

0.11

..

--.... -... -----

•

1

OIST�I�UTICN

MALE . f E.f4ALE

100.00 100.00

13.83 15.91 . 14.13 14.11

11.a, ll.tt6

10.69 10.789 .7tJ 9.67

a.ss a.aa

7.05 7.05 5.19 5.08 3.41 3.30 3.30 3.25

3.06 3.03 l .ll 2.23 l.81 l.d8

l • .l2 1.30 0.71:S o.a1

0.6� 0.79

\'!' "')

•

�L8'.lt:S HG •• 5 PI\OJEC Tl 0� f.;6' BANGLADESH CFSC 110

l9d5 CJAMJAf.Y l)

.t>,1PU�A TI C1'i P.-::rtC�l'tT ulST:ddUT iCH

AGc TGTAL :-1.ll � f .:�"L:: i(.. T 1-'.L �ALc f::HAL::

f.JTAL 1015Cb. 5�1 l\Je 4<i37be 101).(;0 100.00 100."o

0- 't 159S.3. tlSl. 7ti02. l�.7t.. 15.72 15.�'15- 9 14295. 7:)-44. o..;51. lit.Cd 1 ... .,� 1-=..v1

10-l't 12u41. 0179. j��2. 11.ct> 11.cJc ll.d715·19 11023. 56&1. 5�37. 10.86 l\l .91 10.JOc!0-24 S90U. · 5111. 47dl. <i. 15 �.dl 9. lu

2>·29 c,020. 4624. 4�95. 8.89 d.37 8.90 .;;0-54 7174 • ::>\lU l. 349:,. 1.CS1 7.06 1.01 J>-39 �22e. l.1 l\l. 2:1lt>- �.15 :>. 2C., s. 10.·.o 44 3�11. 1/7�. 10::.�. ,j. 36 3.ct l 3.�,J45-49 �J�S. 112<>. lot-�. 3.Z, .:S.:n l). l :.>

,O·S4 3100. l jS;;. l:>02. J.os �.01 J.o ..5:i-�9 22::,1. l.a.5.l. lll."·�- 2.:C:3 l.l.l. �.lJoo-t.4 1879. 'i46. �.33. 1.0, 1.c2 1. �,u=> ·o9 12ao. t. -:: .: t45. 1.20 l.lZ 1.�1

......

70-74 841. 4u9. l.pj.;, • .. .. � u.7d o.adv.o ..

75+ 726. 33-.. .393. 0.72 U.b't 0.19

•

SEf\lcS NC. 1 PRCJ ECT I tN FOR t3ANGL ADfSH cFSC 992000 (JANUARY l)

POPULAT 1 CiN PcRCENT OJSTRIBUTJON

AGF. TOTAL MALE fcMALf TOTAL. HALE f ,:MALE

TOTAL 184708. Cj4d59. 8<J�48. 100.00 100 .oo 100.00

0- 4 34c;11. 17947., 17030� 18.94 18.92 18.�5 s- 9 26349. 14573. l.i772. 15.35 15.37 15.33

10-14 23868. ll274. 11594. 12.92 1.2. 9't 12.90 15-19 20C87. 10335. 9752. 10.8ij 10.89 10.85 20 ··21t 16151. .. 8315. 7835 • a.7 4 a.11 8 .72

25-29 12018. 6181 •. 5831. 6.51 6.52 6.50 30-�4 10386. 5312. 501st. 5.62 5.66 5.5i:3 35-39 9230. 't7o4. 445 2. s.oo 5.04 4.9540-lt4 8317. 4l 76. 4041. 4.50 4.51 4.5045·49 6500. 3333. 3166. 3.52 3.51 3.52

50-54 4606. 2�1:3. 22�4. 2.49 2.50 2.49 55 ·59 2874. 1477. 1397. 1.56 1.56 1.!>, 60-blt 2611. 1318. 1294. 1.41 1 • .;9 1. 4tt65-«>9 2111. 1078. 1093. 1.18 1.14 1.22 10·11t 132.3.· 6�. 679. 0.12 0.68 0.76

15+ 1235. s1s. 660. 0.67 0.61 0.73

-

•

ScRIES NO. 2 PRCJi::CT1 ON FOR

2000. (JANUARY l)

'·. 'i'� ' • � '· ,_ .. I

'

. _ ____ ,

BANGLADESH CFSC

POP ULA Tl UN

AG� TGTAL MALE FcMALt:

TOTAL 148129. 70065. 7l0o4.

0- 4 l«i746. lOlJJ. 9613.

5·· 9 18734. 9o3J. 9lul.

10-1 o\ 17808. 91!:>7. Bo!:iO.

15-19 16496. �ltd 1. 8009. 20-24 14455. 7442. 7012.

25-29 11632. ,. 5983. 5649.

30•34 10386. s:;12. 5014.

35-39 9236. 47 g4. ..452.

40-44 8317. 4276. 4041.

45-'t9 6500. 3�:>3 • Jl�6.

50-54 4006. 2373. 2l.:i4.

55-59 2874. 1477. l.?;97.

b0-64 2611. lJld. 1294.

os 69 2171. 107d. 10�3.

70-74 1323. ()44. 079.

75+ 123S. 575. bbll.

;tt··-· /'(: . i .'

_ _,;,,,,,,.

-

102

Pt:RCENT uIST� IBUT ION

TOTAL MALE: FEMALE

100.00 100.00 100.00

13.33 13 • .;2 13.34

12.os 12.66 12.63

12.02 12.04 12.00

11.14 11.10 11.11

9. 76 9.78 9.73

7.85 7.dl 7.&4

1.01 1.00 6.96

6.23 6.29 6.18 5.62 5.62 5.61 4.39 4.30 4.�9

3.11 3.1� 3.10.

l.94 1.94 l.941. 76 1.73 1.001.47 1.42 1.52O.ij9 O.d� O.'l't. 0.83 0.76 0.92

J

-

�ERIES NC. 3 PkGJECTlON FOR BANGLAOEStt CFSC

2000 (JAhUARY 11

' . .

AGE: TCTAL

TOTAL 141833.

0- 4 17209.

5 4 9 17061.

10-14 16732.

15-19 15f57.

20·24 14153.

25-29 115f3.

30 34 10380.

3;,-39 9236.

40-44 8.317.

45 .. 49. 6500.

:>0-54 4606.

55 ·59 2074.

60-64 2611.

65-69 2171.

70-74 1323.

75+ 1235.

. . 'I

•. , ..

POPULAll GN

' -

HALc

72d30.

8d3l.

8773.

8i.>04.

8159.

72.87.

r 5947.

5372.

4784. 't216.

3·333.

2)73.

1477.

1318.

. 1078.

644.

C

s1s.

: ' J .� ...

ft:H�l f

69003.

0378.

bld8.

8128.

7699.

6866.

5616.

5014.

4452.

4041.

3l�c.

2234.

};j11 J.

1294.

lu93.

b79.

bbO.

"-..___. . .

105

Pi:i\C.£NT 01STR18UTION

TuTAL NALE f::HAlc

100.00 100.00 100.00

12.13 12.13 12.14

12.03 lL.05 ll.01

11.80 11.tH 11. 78

11.18 11.20 11.16

9.98 10.00 9.95

8.15 8 .17 8.l�7.32 7.38 1.21

6.51 6.57 6.455.86 5.61 5.864.58 4.58 4.59

3.25 3.2C> 3.24 2.03 . 2.ij3 2.02 1.84 l.81 1.07 1.53 l.4U 1.58 0.93 O.d� O.<Ja

· o.a1 0.79 0.96

�t:RIES NO. It PP.OJt:CTlON FOR BAN\iLAOESH CFSC 108

2000 . (JANUARY 1)

P\JPULATI G� Pa:RCENT DISTRIBUTION

AGc TOTAL HAL:: ff:HALE TOTAL MALE fEHALE

TOTAL 135522. 6958d. . 6593�. 100.00 100.00 100.00

0- It 14692. l=>'tO. 715l. l0.d4 10.83 10.85

s- 9 1�378. 790�. 74"10. ll.35 ll.3o 11.33

10-14 15643. 8044. 7�99. 11.54 11.56 11.52

lS-19 15210. 7826. 73b4. 11.22 11.25 11.lO.

20·24 13t347. 7129. 6718. 10.22 10.25 10.19

25-29 ll't94. 5911. 5582. 8.48 a.so 8.47

�0�34 10386. 5Jll. 5014. 7.6b 1.12 7.60.

35-39 923b. 47d4. 4452. beBl 6.87 6.75 40-44 8317. 4276. 4041. o.14 b .15 6.13 45··49 6500. 3.3325. 3ltio. 4.80 4.79 4.80.

50-54 4606. 231�. 22�4. 3.40 3.41 3.39 55·59 2874. 1477. l3S7. 2.12 2.12 2.12 o0-64 2611. 1310. 12�4. 1.93 1.0� 1. C:-665-69 2171. 107U. 10�3. 1.00 l .!> 5 1.6670 74 1323. 644. 679. Q.Cj8 U.93 1.03

75+ 1235. 575. 6b0. 0.91 0.83 1.00

-

St:RlcS Nll. 5 P�OJECTION FOR BANGLADESH CFSC 111

2000 (JANUARY 1)

PUPULATICI'. . P.:KC::r-.T O l!) Tr< IJUT l(u-J

AGf TGTAL i-lALc F:f'lAlc TOTAL MAL: fcMALc

TJTAL 134112. 68Jt3. �:>249. 100.00 100 .oo 100.0IJ

0- � 14133. 1l53. 6o8u. 11.). !:>4 10.53 lU.54

5·- 9 l::H)O l. 7 71-i. 12.8 7. 11.19 11.20 11.·17

10-14 15398. 7�ltl. 7480. 11.48 11.:;o 11.46

lS-19 150t5. 77!.l. 7314. 11.23 11.Lc 11.21

20-.24 1377d. 70� •• 6�b4. 10.21 10.30 10.2'1'

25-29 11.-.1a. 5�(B. !>:>75. 8.56 8.57 t3.54 30··34 10386. 5372. 5014. 7. 74 1.uo 7 .->8

3�-39 923\). -.784. 4452. c.ti9 6.9!:> 6.dl

40-44 3317. 4210. 4041. 0.20 t>.ll 0.19

-.5-49 650<:. 3.::..;3. �lt>6. 4.bS �.d4 4 • .-Jj

:>0-54 46Co. 2373. 2L..!4. 3.43 3.4s .3. ·-t 2 !'j:>-5'1 2d7�. 1:.11. lj97. �-14 2: .1 .. 2.14 .:>O-l4 ltll. 1310. li-;4. 1. c; ') l.91 l. Sil

<J!> 69 �171. 1Q7d. lvl.t:;. 1.t.l l • .;,7 1.07

70-74 1�23. u44. 079. c.s9 u.9't 1.u4

75+ 1235. �75. ooO. \

0.92 o .a 3 1.01'

-

' PROJECTION OF FAMILY PLANNING TARGETS FOR BANGLADESH On assumption of decline to replacement level by the year

(All numbers are in thousands)

Item 1970

TOTAL WOMEN AGED 15-49

j Total female population...................... 26054Fecund Women, all marital statuses

�13269 Ma i dW ·

••••••••••• F

rr e omen, total.••••••••••••••••••••••••• 19770ecund Married Women ••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 11540Unexposed Fecund Women ••••••••••••••••••••••• J 1728Fecund Women who must be protected ••••••••••• J 6692Total family planning target ••••••••••••••••• .! 4963Annual increase in family planning target ••••• · 0Additional births averted if target achieved.. 124

BIRTHS A.�D FERTILITY

I Number of births •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• , 3191Total fertility rate (per 1000) •••••••••••••• .I 6295.0 General fertility rate (per 1000) •••••••••••• J 122 Crude birth rate (per 1000) ••••••••••• � •••••• .! 43.5

1975

20209 14201 15979 12017

2184 7890 5707

202 655

3387 5643.5

168 43.0

1980

19685 17065 15613 13648 3417

10357 6940

263 1312

3595 4992.0 183

40.1

: 1970-1985

2000

l I

1985

23371 20117 17551 15117 5000

13242 8241

253 1937

3625 4340.5

155 35.7

I ----�·-··· . · ·�. ,- .•.. . . . . . .. . . . . .. .. -·· - -··· .. - . . . --------·-··--·-------'------�---·-·----

. NOTES

Fecund women who must be protected - the total number of women who are not sterile, who must not bear children in a given year to reach the assumed fertilityreduction.

Total Family Planning Target - the total number of fecund, married women whomust use some method of family planning to avoid bearing children.

Annual increase in the Family Planning Target - the yearly increases in thefamily planning target that must be achieved to obtain the assumed fertility reduction.

Additional births averted - The estimated number of live births that will have been averted if the given fertility objectives are reached.

All the above are expressed in terms of woman years of protection from child­bearing. A full description of these terms and the general methodology involvedin the development of the family planning target is found in D.J. Bogue et. al.An Empirical Model for Demographic Ev�luation _of_the Impact of Contraception andMarital Status on Birthrates. Community and Family Study Center, University ofChicago, 1973. A copy of this manual is available on request.

•

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