By Ann GordonDeputy Chief MeteorologistNational Meteorological Service Belize

1. Setting the Context: Most recent projections for Caribbean Region -similar activities occurring in other SIDS region

2. The need for research on impacts of climate change on different parts of the world - more focused research on regional impacts

3. The need to strengthen regional models 4. Strengthening Science-Policy Dialogue in

Developing Countries

Doubling in frequency of hurricanes in strongest categories 4 and 5 by 2100, particularly in Northern Caribbean, despite overall decrease in frequency of average tropical cyclones

Recent satellite observations reveal acceleration of mass loss from polar ice caps. Continuing this trend would imply up to 1 m SLR by 2100

Increasing CO2 concentration acidifying the world oceans:

◦ Under current pledges:-By 2030s, GHG concentration is expected to be at 450 ppm

CO2, coral reefs may dissolve

-By 2050s, GHG concentration is expected to be at 550 ppm CO2, coral may stop growing

◦ Below 350 ppm CO2 appears to be ‘safe’ for reefs

◦ CO2 at present 386 ppm and rising at 2ppm/year

Increasing CO2 concentration acidifying the world oceans:◦ Under a Copenhagen Accord outcomes with

current targets,-By 2030s, GHG concentration is expected to be at 450

ppm CO2, coral reefs may dissolve

-By 2050s, GHG concentration is expected to be at 550 ppm CO2, coral may stop growing

◦ Below 350 ppm CO2 appears to be ‘safe’ for reefs

◦ CO2 at present 386 ppm and rising at 2ppm/year

Models show warming trend continues reaching by 2080’s a further increase of between 1 and 5 degrees C.

Greater Warming in the NW Caribbean (Jamaica, Cuba, Hispaniola, Belize) than in E Caribbean.

Greater warming in JJA than in cooler traditionally drier earlier months DJF

Drier Caribbean basin in annual total by 2080’s Similar scenarios being developed in other SIDs

region- same level of support needed

Impacts of climate change on different sectors in the region given that climate, climate change and vulnerabilities differ by regions, also some sectors are more sensitive than others

Ice sheets and Sea Level Rise (SLR) with a focus on regional distribution on sea level rise

The impacts of a 1.5 C, 2 C and 3 C ⁰ ⁰ ⁰temperature rise on sea level rise

-need for scenarios of SLR to better understand adaptation issues

The impacts of a 1.5 C, 2 C and 3 C temperature ⁰ ⁰ ⁰rise on marine and terrestrial life in the region to better estimate thresholds.

The Physical and Biological impacts of Sea Level Rise: focus on ecosystems and ecological processes.

Impacts of Ocean acidification and biogeochemical processes on marine life

Integrated assessments of climate change impacts and responses, for example: increase in SST will affect coral reefs, sea grass beds, mangroves, etc.

Observed and projected economic impacts of climate change

The ‘human side’ of the implications of climate change, including, human security

Given improved spatial resolution of climate projections, integrated assessments of potential damage to society (economy, health etc.) are urgently needed to estimate adaptation needs

Planning, costing, and best practices for national adaptation strategies and plans in different sectors

Research on climate finance on how best to secure adequate and accessible finance sources

Tools and methods for assessment and decision-making related to adaptation implementation

Significant advances made, however, much work needs to be done to reduce model biases through better representation of physical processes and higher spatial resolution

Regional climate modeling of climate change scenarios needs to be improved: to pick up smaller scale phenomenon and reduce

uncertainties to analyse future changes in weather extremes such as

tropical cyclones.

Strengthening Science-Policy Dialogue in developing countries and between Regions

Develop a mechanism for sharing best practices so that we can learn from each others experiences.