Text Table of Contents #10:

How Good is the Evidence?

Personal observation

Research studies

Analogy

Truth – is it true (by common knowledge) or at least probably true?◦ Notice that the more things we have to assume for the

reason to be true – the less likely we sholud be to accept its truth.

Logical strength – if the reason is true could we conclude the opposite of the conclusion?

Relevance – do we need the reason for the conclusion to be true?

Circularity – does the reason assume or include the conclusion?

I like all democrats Obama is a democrat Therefore I like Obama

Concl: Modern women should consider using amphetamines for managing stress.

◦ R1: Amphetamines are an effective aid to peace of mind.

Concl: Schools should implement fire safety presentations.

◦ R1: Educational programs are the best solution to the problem.

Concl: Buy cheap frozen vegetables instead of health foods.

◦ R1: Corporate America is charging too much for health foods.

Gun control is like trying to reduce drunk driving by making it tougher for sober people to own cars.

I was recently hired to find the best cherry pie recipe in the state of Virginia. I found it in the kitchen of Evelyn Smith. My search began by requesting all interested cherry pie tasters to answer my newspaper ad. All respondents in the state met in a central location and tasted cherry pies. Each of 68 persons tasted the five cherry pies that were judged superior at the recent Virginia State Fair. To assure fairness, each "taste" was made on a different day so that the taste buds would not be confused. The winner? Ms. Smith’s pie! She received over 40 percent of the votes. Her closest competitor received 22 percent. Apparently, Ms. Smith has something special when it comes to cherry pies.