Politics
OverconfidencePresented by:Imran (30111862)Xin Li
(30308436)Koyna Johrie (30308840)Thanh Luan Do (30129646)Juzer
Hussain (30117067)
1What is overconfidenceIdentification of case
studyConclusion
Overview2Making good decisions requires confidence in ones
ability and judgement
OverprecisionOverestimationOverplacement.
OverconfidenceOverprecision is the excessive faith that a person
knows the truth. -Person who are too sure about whats going to
happen will fail to protect themselves from mistakes
OverprecisionLack knowledge Less experienceIgnore the different
evidenceReasons of overprecisionRefuse to take different opinions
or feedbackBeing excessively certain that a person can estimate the
future valueOverprecision influencePopular belief about
Over-EstimationThinking a person is better at somethings than he or
she really isEverything is in controlMisconception about being
well-organisedOverrating the efficiency levels
Over EstimationThe reality of Over-EstimationSelf-enhancement
Positively as opposed to accuratelyOptimismSelf-defense
Over Estimation (Cont)We tend to overplace on easy tasks and
underplace on hard tasks.The wrong tendency to believe that we are
better than others.
Overplacement
9ConsequencesInflating the expectation of success Choosing wrong
occupationsExcessive costOver entry into the tasks
Overplacement (Cont)
In the case of the topic. If the surgeon overplacesShe will
inflate the expectation of patient of her success which leads to
the disappointment if she cannot achieve patients satisfaction in
term of luck.She will able to work in higher occupations where her
ability and skills cannot accomplish completely.The surgeon could
ask for higher cost to do the task. However, in fact that could be
impossible to get her establish or unnecessary in this caseThe
surgeon might overestimate her relative skills which leads her to
enter another job in which they are incapable of competing
10Positive effectsMaking calm for patients psychologyGiving
optimisticTrust
Overplacement (cont)
Youre considering surgery for removal of a benign brain tumour.
The surgeon recommends an operation based on her assessment that
the tumour has a 70% chance of severely affecting your mental
function within the next 10 years. She states also that her
procedure has a 40% chance of affecting your mental capacity
(anywhere from mild to severe) after the operation. On the balance
of probabilities, you decide to go ahead. On the way to the
operating theatre, the nurse says good luck! This type of operation
has a reasonable record with cases like yours a few patients even
seem almost normal after a while down the track. As you go under
the anaesthetic, you think to yourself I wonder how precise my
surgeon was with her estimate?
Case studyDiscuss the potential role of overconfidence in the
surgeons reported estimations?
QUESTION1) 70% chance of severely affecting your mental function
within the next 10 years.
2) She states also that her procedure has a 40% chance of
affecting your mental capacity (anywhere from mild to severe) after
the operation
Identification..Measurement of confidenceLichtenstein and
Fischhoff (1977)ConclusionTHANK YOU !Any Question?Bank, W. (2014).
world bank. Retrieved from world bank:
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.KLT.DINV.CD.WDBridgad.
(2013, June). Bridgad. Retrieved from top products imported to
South Africa:
http://countries.bridgat.com/Top_Products_Imported_by_South_Africa.htmlEliora.
(2013). Eliora . Retrieved from Eliora :
http://www.eliora.com.br/page003.htmlHancock, T. (2013, Apirl 26).
engineering news. Retrieved from engineering news:
http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/imports-affecting-south-african-sugar-industry-2013-04-19Icumsa.
(2013). International commision for uniform methods of sugar
analysis. Retrieved from International commision for uniform
methods of sugar analysis:
http://www.icumsa.org/index.php?id=83
Reference
