Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (2nd – 6th May ’11)

8/7/2019 Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (2nd – 6th May ’11)

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Weekly Report

Commodity

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BASE METALS DROPS ON US

EMPLOYMENT DATA !

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2 | www.capitalvia.com

Economic Data

7:30pm

All Day

Factory Orders m/m

Total Vehicle Sales

USD

USD

Tue

May 313.1M13.0M

Date Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous

Mon May 2

Weekly Report

Commodity

CAPITALVIA GLOBAL RESEARCH LIMITED

7:30pm ISM Manufacturing PMI USD 59.9 61.2

1.9% -0.1%

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7:30pm Construction Spending m/m USD 0.4% -1.4%

7:30pm ISM Manufacturing Prices USD 83.3 85.0

Tentative Loan Officer Survey USD Wed

May 45:00pm Challenger Job Cuts y/y USD -38.6%

202K5:45pm ADP Non-Farm Employment Change USD 201K

58.4 57.37:30pm ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI USD

8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories USD 6.2M

419K 429K6:00pm Unemployment Claims USDThu

May 51.1%6:00pm Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q USD 2.6%

0.8%6:00pm Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q USD -0.6%

6:45pm FOMC Member Evans Speaks USD

7:00pm Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks USD

31B7:00pm Natural Gas Storage USD

10:45pm FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks USD

5:00pm FOMC Member Yellen Speaks USD Fri

May 6185K6:00pm Non-Farm Employment Change USD 216K

8.8%6:00pm Unemployment Rate USD 8.8%

0.2% 0.0%6:45pm Average Hourly Earnings m/m USD

7:00pm FOMC Member Dudley Speaks USD

5.2B12:30am Consumer Credit m/m USDSat

May 77.6B



Fundamental Market Overview


Silver and Gold were within sight of historic highs on Friday and could resume an uptrend as the U.S. dollar held near three-year lows against a

basket of currencies on hopes U.S. monetary policy would stay ultra-loose, keeping inflationary price pressures high. A fresh batch of U.S.economic data in the form of rising claims for jobless benefits failed to rescue the dollar, which had dropped to its weakest level since July 2008

against other currencies before recovering slightly. Silver barely moved, standing at 48.35 an ounce, after having rallied to a record at $49.51 an

ounce on Thursday. Gold eased 75 cents to $1,534.20 an ounce after hitting a lifetime high around $1,538 an ounce in the previous session. Butdealers said strong investment demand for silver would keep the metal at record levels, while a lack of scrap sales in the physical market

suggested that investors expected more gains. Year to date, silver was up almost 60 percent, sharply above Gold's 8 percent gain. The CME Group

Inc, parent of the Chicago Board of Trade, said on Thursday it would raise maintenance margins for COMEX 5000 Silver futures by 13.2 percent,making it more expensive for silver speculators to trade in. The dollar index which tracks the currency's performance against a basket of major

currencies was down 0.1 percent at 73.030, having plumbed a three-year low of 72.871 on Thursday. It is down around 1.4 percent so far this

week, on track for its biggest weekly drop since a 2.5 percent fall in the week to Jan. 16. Sentiment for the dollar took a hit this week after the Federal Reserve said it was in no hurry to tighten its ultra-loose monetary policy, a move that gave investors the green light to keep using the

dollar as a funding currency to buy higher-yielding assets.

SILVER, GOLD NEAR LIFETIME HIGHS, DOLLAR LOSES GROUND

NYMEX-CRUDE HITS 31-MONTH CLOSING HIGH ON MIDEAST, DOLLAR

U.S. Crude oil futures settled at the highest level in 31 months on Friday as a weaker dollar and geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and NorthAfrica overshadowed demand worries in the face of slower U.S. economic growth. U.S. Crude has risen for eight consecutive months, the longest

stretch of monthly gains since the New York Mercantile Exchange introduced the Crude oil contract in 1983. May gasoline and heating oil futures

rose and expired at the close of the last trading day in April. Gasoline futures advanced for the eighth month in a row and heating oil futuresgained for a sixth consecutive month. In the week to April 16, money managers increased their bets on higher U.S. Crude oil prices to a combined

record in New York and London, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.

FUNDAMENTALSOn the New York Mercantile Exchange, Crude for June delivery rose for a third day and settled at $113.93 a barrel, gaining $1.07, or 0.95

percent, after trading from $112.25 to $114.18. It was the highest settlement since Sept. 22, 2008, when front-month Crude settled at $120.92. For the month, U.S. Crude rose $7.21, or 6.8 percent.

UPCOMING DATA/EVENTS U.S. Energy Information Administration's inventory data, on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT).

SHANGHAI COPPER EDGES UP ON LONDON, CHINA COPPER IMPORTS

Copper fell to a six-week low on Friday, ignoring the often supportive influence of a weaker dollar, as technical pressures mounted and U.S. data

offered further evidence of slowing economic conditions. Copper's losses diverged from U.S. industrial share prices, which were buoyed by afivefold increase in quarterly profits from heavy machinery manufacturer Caterpillar Inc. Instead, prices crumbled under a negative price chart

picture after the front-month May contract broke down below key trend line support around $4.20 per lb. The most-active July COMEX Copper

contract slumped to a session low of $4.1580 per lb, its lowest level since March 15, before ending the day at $4.1790, down 8.25 cents fromThursday's close. It was the second consecutive monthly loss for the metal as concerns about rising inflation and further rounds of interest rate

hikes in Asia, Europe and Latin America underscored perceptions of lower demand for raw materials at the start of the year. Copper was down

overnight after data showed inflation pressures on the rise in the euro zone, upping the chances of an interest rate increase in June. But losseskicked into high-gear after U.S. data showed factory activity in the country's Midwest slowed this month, as tepid demand in the first quarter left

businesses with less of a need to rebuild inventories.

SHANGHAI SURPLUS

Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell for the sixth week to their lowest level since mid-February. Despite the steady fall of stocks in surveyed warehouses, Standard Chartered bank warned that China's Copper inventories in bonded warehouses

were still on the rise in April. Stocks in Shanghai's bonded warehouses were hovering at around 650,000 tonnes, equivalent to roughly four weeksof China's domestic use and higher than the 200,000-tonne average over the past three years. The London Metal Exchange (LME) Copper three-

month delivery contract was closed Friday for Britain's royal wedding, and will remain shut on Monday for a public holiday. Shanghai will also be

shut on Monday.

Weekly Report

Commodity


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GOLD

COMEX Gold is in an upward phase. Last week COMEX Gold sustains on higher level and

closed near to its week high. In the coming week 1500$ will act as a major support inCOMEX Gold, if COMEX Gold sustains above 1525 $ an ounce then above 1575 $ an ounce

it can touch the level of 1530$ an ounce and if COMEX Gold sustains below 1490$ then it

can slightly correct and test the level of 1460$ an ounce.

Market Overview

For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if COMEX Gold sustains above

1520$ an ounce, then above 1575$ it can test the level of 1590$ an ounce and above

1590$ it can further move upward. Trade by keeping the strict stop losses. Major support for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1500$ and 1450$. Major resistance for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1605$ and 1645$ Major support in MCX Gold is 22200 and 21900 Major resistance in MCX Gold is 23050 and 23300

Strategy

SILVER

COMEX Silver is technically strong on charts. Last week COMEX Silver neither closed onhigher levels nor at lower levels. For the upcoming week 4380$ and 4220$ are the crucial

supports and 5000$ and 5150 $ are crucial resistance in COMEX Silver. In MCX Silver

73000 and 75500 will act as major resistance and 64000 and 63000 will act as major

supports.

Market Overview

Technically COMEX Silver is strong on charts, For the next week traders can use buy on

lower level strategy if Silver sustains above the level of 4500$ an ounce, then above 4930$

an ounce it can further go upward and can test the level of 4990$ an ounce. Trade by

keeping the proper stop losses.

Strategy

1695 1617 1586 1539 1509 1461

R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

1383

Script

Levels

5810 5289 5074 4769 4554 4248


3728

Script

Levels

Technical Analysis


Weekly Report

Commodity


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CRUDE OIL

NYMEX Crude is in upward phase. Last week Crude oil sustained on higher levels and made

a close near to its week high.. For the coming week 106$ and 100$ will act as majorsupports and 115 $ and 118$ a barrel will be a major resistance in NYMEX Crude. In MCX

Crude Oil major resistance is found at 5100 and 5250 and major supports will be 4700 and

4500.

Market Overview

For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy, if NYMEX Crude sustains

above the level of 108 $ a barrel then above 115$ it can slightly come up and touch the level

of 116.50 $ a barrel and in MCX above 5100 Crude oil can touch the level of 5170 if it

sustains above 4950. Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.

Strategy

COPPER

Copper is in an upward consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buy onlower levels. Last week COMEX Copper was up for most part of week. If next week COMEX

Copper sustains above the level of 405then above the level of 425 Copper can test the level

of 432. In MCX Copper above 418 Copper can test the level of 425 if it does not break the

level of 400 on the downside.

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 435 and 445 will act as major resistance and 405 and 395 will act as

major supports in COMEX Copper. For MCX Copper major resistance would be 428 and 438

and supports would be found at 400 and 390.

Strategy

119.88 116.41 115.17 112.94 111.70 109.47


106.00

Script

Levels

477.50 451.35 434.60 425.20 408.40 399.05


372.90

Script

Levels

Technical Analysis


Weekly Report

Commodity


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NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buying on

lower levels. Last week Natural Gas was up for most part of the week. If next week NaturalGas sustains above the level of 4.500 $ then above the level of 4.700$ Natural Gas can test

the level of 4.790 $ and below 4.380$ Natural Gas can slightly go down and test the level of

4.280 $. In MCX, if Natural Gas sustains above 211 in the coming week then it can test the

level of 218, if it does not break the level of 198 on the downside.

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 4.250$ and 4.050 $ will act as major supports and 4.880$ and

5.200$ will act as major resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance

would be 220 and 228, supports would be found at 197 and 185.

Strategy

USD / INR

USD/INR is consolidating on charts so traders can use the strategy of buying on lowerlevels. If next week USD/INR sustains above the level of 44.3000 then above the level of

44.6200 USD/INR can test the level of 44.8500 and below 43.8000 USD/INR can slightly go

down and test the level of 43.6000.

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 43.8000 and 43.5000 will act as major supports and 45.4000 and

46.0000 will act as major resistance in USD/INR.

Strategy

5.224 4.911 4.805 4.598 4.492 4.285


3.972

Script

Levels

45.2930 44.8130 44.5270 44.3330 44.0470 43.8530


43.3730

Script

Levels

Technical Analysis


Weekly Report

Commodity


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WEEKLY GAINERS INTERNATIONAL MARKET UPDATE WEEKLY

GOLD 1503.8 1.20

SILVER 4605.9 8.19

COPPER 440 3.35

CRUDE 112.29 2.40

NATURAL GAS 4.412 4.95

USD/INR 44.18 -0.16

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change Commodity Closing Price % Change

WEEKLY LOOSERS

COPPER 30 –JUN-11 415.90 -5.53

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change

Gold MCX 4-JUN -11 Gold Rs./ 10gm 22120 22077 2179222856 22820 170716 14786 3458153.05700

Silver MCX 5-JUL -11 Silver RS./ KG. 71698 71650 6691474560 71350 214246 15549 4340185.75-348

Copper MCX 30-JUN-11 Copper RS./ KG. 440.25 439.25 412.25439.25 415.9 180636 26658 745074.42-24.35

Crude Oil MCX 19-MAY -11 Crude Oil RS./ BBL. 5018 5022 49465085 5047 538478 15479 2687345.0729

Natural Gas MCX 25-MAY -11 Natural Gas RS./ MM BTU 201.8 201.3 197210.1 208.3 89005 6615 219236.536.5

Lead MCX 31-MAY -11 Lead RS./ KG. 117.95 117.9 111.1117.9 112.8 29175 5110 163006.94-5.15

Zinc MCX 31-MAY -11 Zinc RS./ KG. 106.45 106.05 99.8106.3 101.2 50855 11680 255225.66-5.25

Aluminum MCX 31-MAY -11 Aluminium RS./ KG. 122.6 122.65 120.15123.05 122.55 10704 -0.05 3222 63982.89

Nickel MCX 31-MAY -11 Nickel RS./ KG. 1216.7 1212 11681212.8 1202.4 89314 5824 260290.38-14.3

SymbolExch-ange

ExpiryDate

CommodityName

Price UnitPreviousClose

Open LowHigh CloseQty.Traded

NetOpen

Interest

WeeklyTurnOver

(Rs. in Lakhs)

NATURAL GAS 25 –MAY-11 208.30 3.22

Weekly Market Update


*

* Turnover Till Friday

GOLD 04 –JUN-11 22820 3.17

Weekly Report

Commodity


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CRUDE OIL 19 –MAY-11 5047 0.58

LEAD 31 –MAY-11 112.80 -4.37

ZINC 31 –MAY-11 101.20 -4.93



Gold

Silver

Copper

Crude Oil

Natural Gas

Lead

Zinc

Aluminum

Nickel

Scripts R3 R2 PP S1 S2 S3

24617.33

86233.33

476.47

5304.00

231.33

127.53

115.43

1284.00

127.72

23553.33

78587.33

449.47

5165.00

218.23

120.73

108.93

1239.20

124.82

22489.33

70941.33

422.47

5026.00

205.13

113.93

102.43

1194.40

121.92

22122.67

67322.67

405.68

4967.00

200.17

109.97

98.57

1176.00

120.78

21425.33

63295.33

418.97

4887.00

192.03

107.13

95.93

1149.60

119.02

20361.33

55649.33

368.47

4748.00

178.93

100.33

89.43

1104.80

116.12

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Weekly Pivots

R1

23186.67

74968.67

432.68

5106.00

213.27

116.77

105.07

1220.80

123.68

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Weekly Report

Commodity 0 2 n d M a y - 0 7 t h M a y 2 0 1 1

Documents

Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (2nd – 6th May ’11)