Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (25th - 29th July '11)

8/6/2019 Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (25th - 29th July '11)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/bullion-commodity-reports-for-the-week-25th-29th-july-11 1/8

Global Research Limited

Week : July 25th to 30th July’ 2011

WEEKLYREPORT

www.capitalvia.com

COMMODITYCOMMODITYMarket

Base Metals Slump On China’s

Manufacturing Data

Analyst Speak

Premiumsegment



Economic Data

Week : July 25th to 30th July’ 2011 Week : July 25th to 30th July’ 2011

[ 2 ] [ 3 ]

Fundamental Market Overview

Gold rose about 1 percent on Friday, having neared its all-time peak as Gold prices have risen more than 12 percent so far this year. The rise inreservations over a bailout plan for Greece and concerns about a lack of Gold along with a firmer dollar against the euro indicated that marketagreement on the U.S. debt ceiling spurred safe-haven buying. Gold is players were moving into safe-haven assets. The euro slipped asdrawing strength from the European bailout plan and investor investors focused on how the second debt rescue package for Greecenervousness about whether this is going to result in a real resolution. and steps to stop the European debt crisis from spreading would beAdding to the uncertainty and to investor interest in less-risky assets implemented. U.S. negotiators have struggled to agree on terms forwas a bomb attack and shooting in Norway that altogether killed at least raising the government's $14.3 trillion debt ceiling. If talks fail by the17 people. Spot Gold reached $1,607.01 an ounce, its highest since Aug. 2 deadline, the world's biggest economy would be unable to pay itssetting a record of $1,609.51 on Tuesday, and steadied around bills. U.S. President Barack Obama told a town hall meeting he was$1,602.76 an ounce from $1,587.90 late on Thursday. In New York, sure Congress would reach a deal to avert default. Respondentsbenchmark August Gold futures, which trade on the COMEX exchange, forecast a median average Gold price of $1,510 an ounce for this year,gained $14.50 to settle at $1,601.50 an ounce, a 0.91 percent rise. rising to $1,575 an ounce in 2012. Among other precious metals, Silver

Prices increased slightly in after-hours trade. COMEX Gold activity was was bid at $40.06 an ounce against $39.28, having tracked Gold to 2-healthy with volume about 20 percent greater than the 30-day average. 1/2-month highs earlier this week.

GOLD GAINS 1 PCT AS DEBT WORRIES PERSISTMarketwatch

U.S. Crude oil futures settled at a six-week high just below $100 a barrel FUNDAMENTALSOn the New York Mercantile Exchange, Crude for September deliveryon Friday, buoyed by a sharp rebound in refined product futures. A latesettled at $99.87 a barrel, gaining 74 cents, or 0.75 percent, the highestslew of pre-weekend short-covering also pulled Crude futures higher.since June 9's close at $101.93. September Crude traded from $98.43Gasoline and heating oil futures gained on spread trading as theyto $100.19, the highest intraday price since June 10's $102.15. For thetracked higher Brent Crude futures. Relief about the euro zone leaders'week, the front month contract rose $2.63, or 2.7 percent, extendingaction to grant Greece a second bailout package contrasted with highgains to a fourth straight week.anxiety about a deal still out of reach to avoid a U.S. debt default by Aug.

2, as talks continued in Washington President Barack Obama appealedUPCOMING DATA/EVENTS

for compromise by both Democrat and Republican parties as he and U.S. Consumer confidence for July, home sales for June, 10 a.m. EDTHouse Speaker John Boehner pursued a plan for up to $3 trillion in (1400 GMT) Tuesday.spending cuts. U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly oil inventory data, 10:30

a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) Wednesday.

NYMEX-CRUDE ENDS AT 6-WEEK HIGH AS PRODUCTS JUMPMarketwatch

London Copper ended easier Friday, surrendering early gains $10,190 and $4.63. But analysts are beginning to question thealongside a backpedaling euro, while traders assessed mixed durability of the move given the unclear demand trends seen so far thissupply/demand fundamentals amid a surprisingly strong summer rally. year. CPM Group's Virga said a plateau in LME open interest levels was

Despite posting a third consecutive negative close, Copper st ill one possible sign that the recent rally could be nearing an end. As themanaged to eke out a mild gain for the week -- its fourth straight -- as open interest in Copper has waned, so too has the trading volumes. Ainvestors betting on a second-half demand revival in China and a lower little more than 22,500 lots were traded in New York, more than 50global supply base continued to add exposure even as macro- percent below the 30-day norm. Copper turned negative during theeconomic fears from debt issues in Europe and the United States session as the euro slipped against the dollar as investors looked pastpersisted. But signs of contraction in China's vast manufacturing sector the announcement of a second rescue package for Greece andseemed to take som e heat out of the market at week's end, raising measures to stop the debt crisis from spreading to focus on how it will besome questions about the metal-consuming giant's demand prospects carried out. Markets are also eyeing debt talks in the United States, thein the near term and over-shadowing more production problems, this world's largest economy, which have now entered crunch t ime.time at the world's largest Copper mine in Chile. London Metal Supporting Copper, though, workers at the world's largest CopperExchange (LME) benchmark Copper closed down $10 at $9,675 a mine, Chile's Escondida, pressed ahead with a 24-hour strike on Fridaytonne. In after-hours business, prices bounced back into positive to demand that global miner BHP Billiton raise bonuses linked to loftyterritory with firmer New York prices, trading above $9,680. In New earnings. LME Copper stocks fell 1,725 tonnes to 472,325 tonnes, butYork, the key September COMEX contract settled up 2.65 cents at still remain about 35 percent higher than in mid-December.$4.41 per lb, near the upper end of its $4.3750 to $4.4260 sessionrange. Prices in both markets are up about 14 percent from their Maylows and stand just 5 percent away from their mid-February peaks, at

LONDON COPPER ENDS DOWN, SUPPLY WORRIES CAP LOSSESMarketwatch

Date Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous

TueJul 26

6:30pm S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/yUSD -4.0%

7:30pm CB Consumer ConfidenceUSD 58.1

-4.6%

58.5

WedJul 27

6:00pm Core Durable Goods Orders m/mUSD 0.7%

2.1%6:00pm Durable Goods Orders m/mUSD

0.5%

0.4%

ThuJul 28

6:00pm Unemployment ClaimsUSD 418K

8.2%7:30pm Pending Home Sales m/mUSD

412K

-1.0%

FriJul 29

6:00pm Advance GDP q/qUSD 1.9%

2.0%

0.6%

6:00pm Advance GDP Price Index q/qUSD

1.6%

2.0%

0.5%

60.2

6:00pm Employment Cost Index q/qUSD

61.17:15pm Chicago PMIUSD

7:25pm Revised UoM Consumer SentimentUSD 0.8%

63.88:00pm Natural Gas StorageUSD

0.4%

64.1

7:30pm New Home SalesUSD 321K 319K

7:30pm Richmond Manufacturing IndexUSD 5 3

-3.7M8:00pm Crude Oil InventoriesUSD

11:30pm Beige BookUSD

60B8:00pm Natural Gas StorageUSD

3.4%7:25pm Revised UoM Inflation ExpectationsUSD



W e e k l y C h a r t

GOLD


COMEX Gold is in an upward phase. Last week

COMEX Gold was sustaining at higher levels and

closed near to its weekly high. In the coming week

1580 $ will act as a major support in COMEX Gold.

If COMEX Gold sustains above 1575 $ an ounce

then above 1610$ an ounce it can touch the level of

1625$ an ounce and if COMEX Gold sustains

below 1540$ then it can go slightly down and test

the level of 1510$ an ounce.

MARKET OVERVIEW

For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if COMEX Gold sustains above 1575 $ an ounce, then

above 1610$ it can test the level of 1625$ an ounce and above 1630$ it can further move upward. Trade by keeping

the strict stop losses.Major support for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1540$ and 1480$.Major resistance for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1650$ and 1700$Major support in MCX Gold is 22800 and 22400Major resistance in MCX Gold is 23300 and 23550

STRATEGY

WEEKLY PIVOTS

Script Levels

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

1656

1627

1614

1597

1584

1568

1538


SILVER


ExpertObservation

[ 4 ] [ 5 ]

COMEX Silver is in an upward consolidation

phase. Last week COMEX Silver was sustaining at

higher levels and made a weekly close above

4000$ an ounce. For the upcoming week 3780$

and 3600$ are the crucial supports and 4200$ and

4350$ are crucial resistance in COMEX Silver. In

MCX Silver 61000 and 63000 will act as major

resistance and 57000 and 55000 will act as major

supports.

MARKET OVERVIEW

Technically COMEX Silver is consolidating on charts. For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if

Silver sustains above the level of 3800$ an ounce, then above 4020$ an ounce it can go up and can test the level of

4100$ an ounce. Trade by keeping the proper stop losses.

STRATEGY

WEEKLY PIVOTS

Script Levels

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

4506

4240

4126

3973

3859

3707

3440

ExpertObservation




CRUDE


NYMEX Crude is in upward phase. Last week

Crude oil was sustaining at higher level and made a

close near to week high. For the coming week

92.5$ and 88.5$ will act as major supports and

101$ and 104.50$ a barrel will be a major

resistance in NYMEX Crude. In MCX Crude Oil

major resistance is found at 4500 and 4680 and

major supports will be 4250 and 4100.

MARKET OVERVIEW

For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy, if NYMEX Crude sustains above the level of 95.2 $ a

barrel then above 98$ it can slightly come up and touch the level of 100.00 $ a barrel and in MCX if Crude sustains

above 4330 then above 4470 it can touch the level of 4530.Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.

STRATEGY

WEEKLY PIVOTS

Script Levels

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

109.25

103.75

101.81

98.25

96.31

92.75

87.25


COPPER


ExpertObservation

[ 6 ] [ 7 ]

Copper is in a consolidation phase and traders

should use the strategy of buy on lower levels. Last

week COMEX Copper was down for most part of

the week. If next week COMEX Copper does not

sustains below the level of 430 then above the level

of 442 Copper can test the level of 449. In MCX

Copper sustains above 435 then it can test the level

of 440 if it does not break the level of 427 on the

downside.

MARKET OVERVIEW

For the upcoming week 450 and 460 will act as major resistance and 425 and 415 will act as major supports in COMEX

Copper. For MCX Copper major resistance would be 440 and 450 and supports would be found at 410 and 400.

STRATEGY

WEEKLY PIVOTS

Script Levels

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

467

454

447

441

434

429

416

ExpertObservation




NATURAL GAS


Natural Gas is in a consolidation phase and traders

should use the strategy of selling on higher levels.

Last week Natural Gas was down for most part of

the week. If next week Natural Gas sustains below

the level of 4.500 $ then below the level of 4.360$

Natural Gas can test the level of 4.270 $ and above

4.500 $ Natural Gas can slightly go up and test the

level of 4.599 $. In MCX, if Natural Gas sustains

below 194 in the coming week then it can test the

level of 188, if it does not break the level of 202 onthe upside.

MARKET OVERVIEW

For the upcoming week 4.050$ and 3.800$ will act as major supports and 4.730$ and 5.030$ will act as major

resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance would be 214 and 222, supports would be found

at 177 and 170.

STRATEGY

WEEKLY PIVOTS

Script Levels

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

4.944

4.702

4.551

4.460

4.309

4.218

3.976


USD / INR


ExpertObservation

[ 8 ] [ 9 ]

USD/INR is consolidating on charts so traders can

use the strategy of selling on higher levels. If next

week USD/INR sustains below the level of 44.5500

then below the level of 44.2800 USD/INR can test

the level of 44.1300 and below 44.0000 USD/INR

can further go down and test the level of 43.8500.

MARKET OVERVIEW

For the upcoming week 43.9000 and 43.4800 will act as major supports and 45.4500 and 46.0500 will act as major

resistance in USD/INR.

STRATEGY

WEEKLY PIVOTS

Script Levels

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

45.1800

44.8000

44.5700

44.4200

44.1900

44.0400

43.6600

ExpertObservation




[ 10 ] [ 11 ]

Weekly Market Update

Symbol Exchange ExpiryDate

CommodityName

Price UnitPrevious

CloseOpen LowHigh Close

Qty.Traded

NetOpen

Interest

WeeklyTurnOver

(Rs. in Lakhs)*

* Turnover Till Friday

MCXGOLD 5 -AUG -11 GOLD

RS. / 10GM. 23071 23094 2283123320 23099 219963 28 11266 5041802.97

COPPER MCX 30-AUG -11 COPPER RS. / KG. 435 434.65 431442.75 433.45 502146 -1.55 25392 2180370.14

CRUDE OIL MCX 19-AUG -11 CRUDE OIL RS/QUINTAL 4368 4369 42654462 4446 715736 78 20870 3135755.52

NATURAL GAS MCX 26-AUG -11 NATURAL GAS RS. / BBL. 202.2 203 194.8206 196 30106 4865-6.2 74515.45

LEAD MCX 29-JUL -11 NATURAL GAS RS./ MM BTU 120.55 120.8 118.25123.2 119.5 76789 -1.05 4648 461651.42

LEADZINC MCX 29-JUL -11 RS. / KG. 105.35 105.4 105.4109.8 109.1 97043 3.75 4719 522654.51

NICKEL MCX 29-JUL -11 NICKEL RS. / KG. 1076.1 1076.7 1055.11082.7 1064.5 213179 -11.6 7813 566815.45

ALUMINUM MCX 29-JUL -11 ALUMINIUM RS. / KG. 110.25 110.5 109.6114.1 113.75 31917 3.5 3102 177685.88

SILVER MCX 05-SEP -11 SILVER RS. / KG. 58473 58700 5702560739 59486 647260 1013 13404 11423935.35

Commodity Watch




[ 12 ] [ 13 ]

Weekly Market Update

CommodityExpiryDate

ClosingPrice

%Change

ZINC 29 –JUL-11 109.10 3.56

CommodityExpiryDate

ClosingPrice

%Change

NATURAL GAS 26-AUG -11 196 -3.06

Disclaimer

The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or

opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most.

Investment in Stocks has its own risks. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and

up on sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not

responsible for any loss incurred based upon it & take no responsibilitywhatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above.

The stock price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change

without notice.

CapitalVia does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Analyst or any person related to CapitalVia might be holding positions in the stocks recommended.

It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or

its owners or anyone can be held responsible for.

Our Clients (Paid Or Unpaid), Any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with

anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken.

Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer.

All Rights Reserved.

Weekly Gainers Weekly Losers

International Market

Commodity Closing Price % Change

GOLD 1601.5 0.72

SILVER 4012.2 2.69

COPPER 441 -0.07

CRUDE OIL 99.87 2.33

NATURAL GAS 4.399 -3.23

USD/INR 44.34 -0.38

Weekly Pivots

Scripts R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

GOLD 24061.00 23572.00 23335.00 23083.00 22846.00 22594.00 22105.00

SILVER 66508.33 62794.33 61135.67 59080.33 57421.67 55366.33 51652.33

COPPER 459.22 447.47 440.43 435.72 428.68 423.97 412.22

CRUDE OIL 4785.00 4588.00 4517.00 4391.00 4320.00 4194.00 3997.00

NATURAL GAS 221.37 210.17 203.13 198.97 191.93 187.77 176.57

LEAD 130.20 125.25 122.35 120.30 117.40 115.35 110.40

ZINC 116.90 112.50 110.80 108.10 106.40 103.70 99.30

NICKEL 1122.60 1095.00 1079.70 1067.40 1052.10 1039.80 1012.20

ALUMINUM 121.47 116.97 115.33 112.47 110.83 107.97 103.47

Commodity Watch

ALUMINIUM 29 –JUL-11 113.75 3.18

CRUDE OIL 19-AUG -11 4446 1.79

NICKEL 29 –JUL-11 1064.50 -1.08

COPPER 30-AUG -11 433.45 -0.36



Contact Number:

Hotline: +91-91790-02828

Landline: +91-731-668000Fax: +91-731-4238027

You Can Send Us DD & Communication @ Postal Address:

CapitalVia Global Research Limited

No. 99, 1st Floor, Surya Complex, R. V. Road, Basavanagudi

Opposite Lalbagh West GateBangalore - 560004

Corporate Office Address:

No. 99, 1st Floor, Surya Complex

R. V. Road, Basavangudi

Opposite Lalbagh West Gate

Bangalore - 560004

India:

CapitalVia Global Research Limited

No. 506 West, Corporate House

169, R. N. T. Marg, Near D. A. V. V.

Indore - 452001

Singapore:CapitalVia Global Research Pvt. Ltd.

Block 2 Balestier Road

#04-665 Balestier Hill

Shopping Centre

Singapore - 320002

Contact Us

www.capitalvia.com

Documents

Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (25th - 29th July '11)