Buller (2014) The Impacts of Climate Change on Geological Processes

April 2014

The Impacts of Climate Change on Geological Processes

Stephanie Marie Buller

Submitted to the Department of Geography, Environment and Disaster Management of Coventry University towards BSc Geography and Natural Hazards

Buller, (2014) Climate Change and Geological Processes

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The Impacts of Climate Change on Geological Processes

Abstract;

Future climatic change as a result of anthropogenic climate warming may potentially promote the

occurrence of geological phenomena. This paper critically reviews and evaluates existing literature

which seeks to determine causal links between climate change and increased geological activity. This

paper builds upon the work of McGuire (2010) in order to develop an unbiased evaluation of the

extent to which contemporary climate change may alter the frequency of geological events. Patterns

of climatic change associated with volcanic, seismic and submarine landslide occurrences during the

late Quaternary are discussed, followed by a critical review of the mechanism by which climate

change may alter geological processes. This paper further identifies aleatory, epistemic and

ontological uncertainties which exist and impede our understanding of current climate science and

geological system responses. The extent to which contemporary climate change may trigger a

geological response remains uncertain and controversial, as assuming uniformitarianism, it is likely

that the frequency of volcanic, seismic and submarine landslide events may increase in response to

climate changes. In order for the true extent to be accurately determined, uncertainties must be

reduced, for which areas of further study have been identified and recommended.

Keywords: Climate Change, Quaternary, Holocene, Deglaciation, Sea Level Rise, Post Glacial

Rebound, Volcanoes, Earthquakes, Submarine Mass Failures


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Declaration and Acknowledgments

Declaration

I hereby declare that this project is entirely my own work and where I have used the work of others

it has been referenced correctly. I can also confirm that the project has been completed in

compliance with the University ethics policy and that the information that was supplied with the

original ethics document handed in with the project proposal corresponds with the work conducted

for the project.

Acknowledgements

The Author would like to acknowledge and thank Dr. Jason Jordan for his unwavering guidance,

support and kindness over the years. But most importantly I thank you for showing me my research

interest, and for which I shall always be grateful. Without you this would not have been possible and

I would not be as determined to pursue every opportunity that now lay ahead of me as a result, you

have given me the confidence to believe in myself and follow my dreams.

The author would further like to thank family for their support through the challenges I have faced

over the years. In particular Simon, you have been my rock and my strength throughout this last

year, and I would truly have not made it to this point without you. I am truly blessed to have such a

wonderful person in my life.


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Table of Contents Chapter 1: Paper Overview ..................................................................................................................... 6

Section 1: Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 6

1.2: Aims, Objectives and Methodology ......................................................................................... 7

Chapter 2: Climate Change ..................................................................................................................... 8

Section 1: Climate Forcing .................................................................................................................. 8

1.1: Sub-Milankovitch Cycles (D-O/Heinrich Events) .................................................................... 10

1.2: Volcanic Forcing ..................................................................................................................... 10

1.3: Anthropogenic Forcing ........................................................................................................... 11

Section 2: Contemporary and Future Climate Change ..................................................................... 14

2.1: Contemporary Climate Change and Implications for Geological Activity .............................. 17

Section 3: Climate Change Uncertainty ............................................................................................ 18

Chapter 3: The Quaternary ................................................................................................................... 22

Section 1: Glacial/Interglacial Cycles ................................................................................................ 22

Section 2: Abrupt Climatic Change during the Quaternary .............................................................. 23

2.1: The Younger Dryas ................................................................................................................. 24

2.2: The 8.2Ka Cold Event ............................................................................................................. 27

Chapter 4: The Impact of Climate Change on Volcanoes ..................................................................... 29

Section 1: Volcanism and Past Climatic Change ............................................................................... 29

Section 2: Effects of Glacial loading and Deglacial Unloading on Volcanic Processes ...................... 30

Section 3: Effects of Sea Level Rise on Volcanic Processes ............................................................... 32

Section 4: Contemporary Climate Change and Volcanic Activity ..................................................... 36

Chapter 5: The Impact of Climate Change on Seismicity ...................................................................... 37

Section 1: Seismicity and Past Climatic Changes .............................................................................. 37

Section 2: Post Glacial Rebound and Seismic Frequency .................................................................. 39

Section 3: Eustatic Loading and Seismic Frequency ......................................................................... 45

Section 4: Contemporary Climate Change and Seismic Activity ....................................................... 49

Chapter 6: The Impact of Climate Change on Submarine Failures ....................................................... 49

Section 1: Submarine Failures ........................................................................................................... 50

Section 2: Submarine Failures and Past Climatic Changes ............................................................... 53

Section 3: Rates of Sedimentation and Slope Stability ..................................................................... 54

Section 4: The Holocene Storegga Slide ........................................................................................... 55

4.1: The 8.2Ka Event, LAO and Storegga ....................................................................................... 55

Section 5: Sea Level Rise and Submarine Failures ............................................................................ 57


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5.2: Eustatic Induced Seismicity as a triggering mechanism ........................................................ 58

Section 6: Contemporary Climate Change and Submarine Failures ................................................. 60

Chapter 7: Final Discussion and Concluding Remarks .......................................................................... 60

Section 1: Final Discussion ................................................................................................................ 60

Section 2: Concluding Remarks ......................................................................................................... 62

References ............................................................................................................................................ 64


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List of Figures Found

Figure 1: Solar and cosmic factors that influence climate. ................................................................... 8

Figure 2: Orbital variations, solar energy changes and resulting glacial cycles,. .................................... 9

Figure 3: Effects of stratospheric aerosols on the atmosphere ............................................................ 10

Figure 4: The natural greenhouse gas effect. ....................................................................................... 12

Figure 5: Northern Hemisphere Temperature changes over the last millennia ................................... 13

Figure 6a and b): Northern and southern hemisphere temperatures over last 2 millennia ................ 14

Figure 7: Modelling results and recorded observations for the last 100years ..................................... 15

Figure 8: Climate modelled scenarios ................................................................................................... 16

Figure 9: The Earth’s Climatic System. ................................................................................................. 19

Figure 10: The uncertainty explosion ................................................................................................... 19

Figure 11: The cascade of uncertainties .............................................................................................. 20

Figure 12: Climate Modelling uncertainties .......................................................................................... 21

Figure 13: Ocean temperature oscillations ........................................................................................... 22

Figure 14: An Overview of Quaternary Climatic Changes ..................................................................... 23

Figure 15: Lake Agassiz and Laurentide ice sheet. ................................................................................ 25

Figure 16: Lake Agassiz re-routing. ....................................................................................................... 25

Figure 17: Sea level rise and tephra emplacing events ......................................................................... 34

Figure 18: Melting response to change in sea level .............................................................................. 35

Figure 19: Effects of glacial loading on the crust .................................................................................. 40

Figure 20: Effects of unloading and Glacio-Isostatic Rebound ............................................................. 40

Figure 21: Correlation between glacial unloading and increased slip rates ......................................... 41

Figure 22: The Wasatch Fault ............................................................................................................... 42

Figure 23: The Teton fault ..................................................................................................................... 42

Figure 24: Elevated slip rates along the Wasatch Fault during the LGM .............................................. 43

Figure 25: Effects of ice loading on the Teton fault .............................................................................. 44

Figure 26: Global Relative Sea Level rise following the LGM 20Kya to present ................................... 45

Figure 27: Rapid Global Eustatic Sea Level Rise during the Holocene period 10Kya to present .......... 46

Figure 28: Relative sea level rise since the LGM ................................................................................... 47

Figure 29: The 4 main types of submarine instability ........................................................................... 50

Figure 30: The causes of submarine landslides .................................................................................... 51

Figure 31: The factors and processes responsible for initiating Submarine Slope Failures ................. 51

Figure 32: Locations of known Submarine Mass Failures ..................................................................... 52

Figure 33: Submarine Landslide Regions .............................................................................................. 53

Figure 34: The LAO discharge, Holocene Storegga slide and Storegga slide tsunami .......................... 56

Figure 35: Meltwater pulses, sea level rise and submarine landslides ................................................. 57

List of Tables Found

Table 1: Post Glacial Faults documented in Finland, Norway and Sweden. ......................................... 38

Table 2: Norwegian post glacial faults considered to be almost certainly neotectonic ....................... 38


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Chapter 1: Paper Overview

Section 1: Introduction

As global population rises, the population interface becomes increasingly vulnerable to the risk from

natural disaster through urban expansion and resource disparity; furthermore the threat of climate

change is gradually becoming recognised around the world.

Climate change is referred to as the change in regional climate resulting from alterations in

temperature and/or precipitation. This is often the result of larger complex system interactions

between the global climate system, and external forces such as Croll-Milankovitch cycles, Oceanic

Decadal Oscillations, volcanic aerosols and solar irradiance.

The IPCC, confirmed in the AR5 Report and summary for policy makers that the world’s climate is

changing, and the threat from climate change is now irrefutable (IPCC, 2013). The IPCC confirms we

are entering into a periods of warmer climate, following the last glacial maximum, this is a known

natural cycle referred to as an interglacial. However this natural process has been exacerbated by

anthropogenic activity, resulting in accelerated warming.

Anthropogenic climate change is a change in the Earth’s climate as a result of human activities and

this includes the combustion of fossil fuels and the release of aerosols into the atmosphere.

Resulting in changes to atmospheric composition, that amplifies natural green-house gas (GHG)

effects, this causes global temperature increases as more solar-radiation becomes trapped by the

GHG.

Anthropogenic climate change is currently of global concern, rising land and sea surface

temperatures, may lead to rapid climatic shifts in precipitation levels, increasing the risk of flood,

drought and famine. Temperature increases will also enhance deglaciation, melting of land-based

glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets and will result in global sea level rise.


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The topic of this paper is concerned with the consequences of climate change upon geological

activity. This paper seeks to investigate the methods by which climate has the capacity to alter

geological processes such as volcanic eruptions, seismicity and submarine failures, through evidence

of past climate shifts and geological responses as well as theoretical and empirical understanding of

the process and mechanisms which can be altered and the method by which they are influenced by

climate change processes.

1.2: Aims, Objectives and Methodology

The primary aim of this paper is to give an in-depth understanding and critical analysis of

existing literature that seeks to determine a link between climate change processes and

potential geological responses. To achieve this aim the objective is to collect, collate and

critically review theoretical and empirical studies regarding the topic of this paper.

The secondary aim of this paper is to determine possible future geological responses from

anthropogenic climate change. This aim will be fulfilled through the discussion and

evaluation of the mechanism by which climate change may alter geological events, seeking

to unite this with the current understanding of anticipated climate change impacts, with

previous examples of geological responses to climate change during the late Quaternary.

The final aim of this paper is to identify uncertainties which surround the current

understanding of the topics reviewed in this paper. This will be achieved by identifying and

recommending areas for further study in order to reduce uncertainties and increase

understanding regarding future geological responses to climate change.

This project has no direct primary fieldwork data collection, due to limitations which make primary

collection unsuitable. Therefore, secondary data will be utilised, collected from a range of

academically recognised sources such as journals, books and reports from key field-leading

researchers and institutional organisations. However it is worth noting limitations associated with

this method, such as access to material, opinion biases, currency, and relevancy. The literature will

be reviewed and critically assessed in order to determine the links that exist between geological

processes and climate change processes.


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Chapter 2: Climate Change

This paper will be focusing on known geological events associated with times of abrupt or rapid

climate change, such as the Quaternary. Therefore, this chapter aims to explore mechanisms of both

natural and anthropogenic climate change, as well as discussing future climate change scenarios and

evaluating uncertainties, with regards to future climate predictions in the context of geological

hazards.

Section 1: Climate Forcing

Wanner et al., (2008) state that natural climatic forcing can occur through orbital, solar, eruption,

land cover and GHG variations. Furthermore Wanner et al., (2008) cite that predominant climate

change during the Holocene is a result of forcing through orbital, solar and volcanic variations. A

simplified diagram of solar and cosmic variations is shown in figure 1.

Figure 1: Shows solar and cosmic factors that influence climate. Fluctuations in UV variations and solar wind are natural external triggers to climate change by altering the Stratosphere and Troposphere; Van Geel et al., (1999).


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Orbital forcing refers to the quantity of solar radiation that reaches the Earth’s upper atmosphere as

a result of solar forcing and astronomical forcing (Berger et al., 2013) which includes axial

orientation and positioning relative to the sun. Astronomical theory is commonly referred to as

Croll-Milankovitch cycles where changes to orbital eccentricity occur at 400,000 and 100,000yr

intervals, variations in axial tilt occur at 40,000yr intervals and changes in axial precission occur at

20,000yrs (Wanner et al., 2008; Bennet, 1990; Imbrie and Imbrie, 1979, Dawson, 1992; Raymo and

Nisancioglu, 2003).

Solar forcing is the result of changes in the energy output from the sun (Wanner et al., 2008) and

this refers to sunspot cycles, a change in total solar irradiance, from minima to maxima, in an 11year

Schwabe Cycle (Lean et al., 1995; Wanner et al., 2008). However as noted by Wanner et al., (2008)

exact sun cycles have as yet been poorly identified and constrained, but are thought to have played

an important role in Quaternary climate forcing (Pekarek, 2000; Beer et al., 2000; Van Geel et al.,

1999). Figure 2 shows the effects of Precession, Obliquity, Eccentricity, and Solar Forcing on Glacial-

Interglacial cycles.

Figure 2: Graph depicting orbital variations, solar energy changes and resulting glacial cycles, as a consequence of Milankovitch cycles, demonstrating solar and orbital forcing of climate on 100kyr intervals; Adapted from Quinn et al., (1991) and Lisiecki and Raymo (2005).


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1.1: Sub-Milankovitch Cycles (D-O/Heinrich Events)

Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events/cycles are abrupt periods of climate oscillation that occurred

approximately 25 times during the Last Glacial Period based on Greenland Ice-cores (Bond et al.,

1999; 1993; 1992; Bond and Lotti, 1995). Heinrich events describe an influx of icebergs being

released into the north Atlantic, which then melt and release large volumes of freshwater, with six

distinct events having been recorded during the last glacial maximum period and transition into the

Holocene (Bond et al., 1999; 1993; 1992; Bond and Lotti, 1995; Broecker, 1992; Heinrich, 1988;

Maslin et al., 2001). Conclusions have been that the two events are connected, that the large

freshwater influx from the iceberg rafting is responsible for the changes in the thermohaline

circulation which in turn may cause the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles (Rabassa, 2013; Labeyrie, 2007).

However as noted by many authors the exact relationship between D-O and Heinrich events with

the climate is yet to be fully understood.

1.2: Volcanic Forcing

Volcanic eruptions have the potential to have negative or positive feedback mechanisms on climate.

Negative feedback results in climate cooling and positive feedbacks result in climate warming.

Figure 3: Diagram indicating the effects of stratospheric aerosols on the atmosphere; Robock, (2003) adapted from Robock, (2000)

Figure 3 shows how large volcanic eruptions with high SO2 concentrations are ejected into the

troposphere and stratosphere at ~20-25km in altitude, they are able to influence climate resulting in

cooling (Robock, 2003; Coffey and Mankin, 2003; Dawson, 1992; Wanner et al., 2008). Aerosols


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entering the stratosphere can alter albedo in turn causing backscattering of solar radiation (Robock,

2003) or negative radiative forcing (Crawley, 2000). Zielinski, (2002) states that only large explosive

equatorial eruptions have the capacity to alter global climate for a number of years.

Huybers and Langmuir, (2009) argue that volcanic activity may present a positive feedback

mechanism for deglaciation and atmospheric CO2, based on 2-6 times elevations in background

eruptive frequency during 12-7ka, consistent with CO2 concentrations within ice cores. Huybers and

Langmuir, (2009) State that deglacial processes may increase volcanic eruption frequency, as later

discussed in chapter 4, which in turns produces greater atmospheric co2 and warming, further

enhancing deglaciation.

Overall it is believed that the complex interaction between orbital, solar and volcanic forcing are

responsible for the dramatic climatic changes experienced throughout the early Holocene (Shindell,

2013; Mayewski et al., 2004).

1.3: Anthropogenic Forcing

As previously mentioned Anthropogenic forcing, is related to the combustion of fossil fuels and the

release of GHG’s that enhance the natural greenhouse effect, shown in figure 4.


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Figure 4: Representation of the natural greenhouse gas effect. Higher levels of Methane, CO2, chlorofluorocarbons and other GHG’s in the troposphere enhance the natural GHG effect, resulting in greater absorption of infrared radiation resulting in less radiative reflection, consequently increasing the temperature of the lower atmosphere; Houghton, (2010).

Observational records indicate unprecedented warming during the late twentieth century, now

understood to be the consequence of anthropogenic activity and the production of GHG’s (Mann,

2013; IPCC, 2013). The IPCC confirmed in 2013 that the threat from climate change as a result of

anthropogenic activity is irrefutable.

Our understanding of future climate change has been based on our understanding of the past.

Mann, (1999) and Mann et al., (1998) reconstructed temperature over the past millennia shown in

figure 5, commonly referred to as the ‘Hockey Stick Graph’.


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Figure 5: Graph depicting Northern Hemisphere Temperature changes over the last millennia, based on climate proxies and historical records; Mann, (1999)

Mann and Jones (2003) reconstruct Northern and Southern hemisphere temperatures to support

Mann, (1999) by identifying a global temperature trend for increasing temperatures. Both figures 6a

and b) indicate an accelerated increase in temperature, since ~1870, this has been attributed to

Anthropogenic climate change by the release of GHG’s since early industrial times.


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Figure 6a and b): Graphs show northern and southern hemisphere temperatures over last 2 millennia; Mann and Jones, (2003)

Section 2: Contemporary and Future Climate Change

The IPCC confirmed in 2013 that the threat from climate change as a result of anthropogenic activity

is irrefutable; this therefore highlights the significant need for an improved understanding of the

climate system in order to better model and predict the future. The IPCC, (2013) released a series of

climate modelling predictions in the recent AR5 summary report shown in figure 8, based on current

climate observations and modelling trends indicated in figure 7.


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Figure 7: Global graphs comparing modelling results and recorded observations for the last 100years; Yellow panels indicate Temperature change; White panels indicate sea ice extent; blue panels indicate ocean heat content. Modelling which accounts for only natural forcing, fails to match the observed changes in Land and ocean temperature changes, therefore indicating that climate change is not a direct result of natural processes, which only the combined effect of natural and anthropogenic forcing can account for the unprecedented warming observed since the late twentieth century; IPCC, (2013)


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Figure 8: Climate modelled scenarios showing relative change between RCP2.6 (1986-2005) and RCP8.5 (2081-2100) diagram A) precipitation B) sea ice extent C) ocean surface PH; IPCC, (2013)


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2.1: Contemporary Climate Change and Implications for Geological Activity

McGuire, (2010) discusses potential periods of previously enhanced geological activity associated

with periods of abrupt climate change. McGuire, (2010) assumes uniformitarianism when

considering past and future geo responses to climate change.

McGuire, (2010) infers that at high latitudes, seismicity and volcanic activity may increase through

ice mass loss and crustal adjustment and modulation, based on work by; Turpeinen et al., (2008);

Hampel et al., (2010); Pagli and Sigmundsson, (2008); Sigmundsson et al., (2010). Mcguire (2010)

further suggests that a likely consequence could be increased submarine failures and tsunami’s,

based on Tappin, (2010).

McGuire, (2010) argues that in oceanic settings increased volcanic and seismic activity should also be

expected through crustal loading associated with sea level rise, which may again result in greater

submarine failure and tsunami occurrence.

The conclusion drawn by McGuire, (2010) is strictly uniformitarian, inferring that past periods of

exceptional climate change are associated with a geo response and therefore future climate change

shall likely result in a geo response suggesting increased frequency of volcanic and seismic events

may occur and in turn likely increases in Submarine failures and Tsunami’s.

Liggins et al., (2010) offer a comprehensive regional assessment into the potential geopheric

responses that may potential occur in response to climate change scenarios based on the IPPC AR4

projections. These conclusions are in agreement with those of McGuire, (2010), but again assume

uniformitarianism basing potential responses on ‘associated’ previous responses, the limitations of

this is that the majority of these associations between previous geological responses to climate

change remain theoretical and are yet to be empirically proven, therefore modelling applied

scenarios present large uncertainties.


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Overall, this could be considered as a narrow and biased point of view, with supporting literature

intent on proving the link between increased geological activity and climate change. It should also be

noted that the majority of literature has as yet failed to prove more than circumstantial and

theoretical links, citing age proximity as cause and effect as a suitable triggering mechanism

(McGuire, 2010; McGuire et al., 1997; Smith et al., 2011, 2013; Garziglia et al., 2003; Trincardi et al.,

2003). The literature relies heavily on modelling, with inherent uncertainty, which should not

necessarily be taken as truth in the context of future climate change, given the variety and volume of

uncertainty associated with future climate.

In conclusion, McGuire, (2010) offers a well synthesised literature review in support for climate

forcing of geological hazards. However, what this paper attempts to do, is critically review and

evaluate arguments both for and against climate forcing of geological hazards, attempting to deliver

an unbiased and balanced argument in order to conclude and determine to what extent future

climate change may have the potential to trigger geological activity.

Section 3: Climate Change Uncertainty

Mitchell and Hulme, (1999) identify inherent climate uncertainty to be the result of deterministic

chaos presented by the complexities intrinsic to the climate system by external and internal

forcing’s, feedbacks and complex interactions, highlighting epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. The

complexity of the climate system as whole can be seen in figure 9.


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Figure 9: Schematics of the Earth’s Climatic System, depicting the complexities between the hydrosphere, Atmosphere, Geosphere, Biosphere, Cryosphere, Solar and Anthropogenic interactions; Houghton, (2010).

Increasing complexities present increasing uncertainties as noted by Schneider, (1983 and 2002)

Oreskes et al.,(2010), Houghton (2010) and Maslin (2013) which can lead to the uncertainty

explosion, shown in figure 10, and the cascade of uncertainty shown in figure 11.

Figure 10: The uncertainty explosion, suggests multiplying uncertainty of future consequences associated with political, economic, sociological, physical responses; Schneider, (2002) modified after Jones, (2000)


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Figure 11: the cascade of uncertainties to be regarded when developing climate scenarios; Houghton (2010) sourced from IPCC, (2001)

As discussed by Maslin, (2013) models have limitations based on their closed system simplicities, as

well as the limited understanding of the physical user with regard to the complexities of the physical

system. Epistemological and ontological uncertainties with regards to climate modelling are

discussed at length by Foley, (2010) the summary of which can be seen in Figure 12.


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Figure 12: Climate Modelling uncertainties, arising from aleatory uncertainty associated with the natural climate system and epistemological and ontological uncertainty arising from climate modelling; Foley, (2010).

Overall the majority agree that although large uncertainties exists with regard to climate change and

future responses, it is however likely that based on previous global changes, since not only the start

of the interglacial warming trend but also accelerated warming by anthropogenic activities, are likely

to result in continued temperature increases, continued ice mass loss and increased sea level rise

(IPCC, 2013). These three responses are considered to have been responsible for enhanced geo-

hazards during previous periods of climate changes during the Quaternary, these considerations will

be critically reviewed later in this paper.


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Chapter 3: The Quaternary

According to Elias, (2013) the Quaternary spans the last 2.6my, and is separated into two geological

epochs the Pleistocene (2.6my-11ky BP) and the Holocene (11Ky to present). This period of time is of

significant importance to climate scientists in order to better understand climate change and

potential links to geological hazards. The Quaternary is the most understood period of time

demonstrating dramatic climatic shifts with roughly 50 large scale oscillations between glacials

lasting on average 100,000yrs and interglacials ~10,000yrs. The Quaternary contains evidence of

dramatic climate shifts and responses from the atmosphere and cryosphere that have yet to be

observed in recorded history, and as noted by Elias, (2013) can offer extensive insight into potential

future climate change scenarios and feedbacks.

Section 1: Glacial/Interglacial Cycles

As previously noted in chapter 2, glacial/interglacial cycles are thought to have been controlled by

Milankovitch cycles, see figure 2; chapter 2, section 1. Glacial/Interglacial cycles during the

Quaternary period can be seen in figure 13.

Figure 13: Graph showing ocean temperature oscillations, based on oxygen isotope ratios within benthic foraminifera over last 3my. Warm interglacial periods represented by odd numbered peaks, cold glacial periods indicated by even numbered troughs; Elias, (2013) adapted from Lisiecki and Raymo, (2005)

The last Glacial Maximum concluded ~20 ca Ky BP (Smith et al., 2013) during the late Pleistocene,

giving way to a warmer period known as the current Interglacial. Wide spread ice mass loss and ice

sheet decline, lead to rapid sea level rise, and abrupt climate oscillations through the late


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Pleistocene and early Holocene ~11,650-7000BP (Smith et al., 2013), this period is often referred to

as the late Pleistocene-early Holocene transitional period. This paper will be focusing on potential

geological events which may have occurred as a result of deglacial processes during the interglacial

and responses to abrupt climate shifts.

Section 2: Abrupt Climatic Change during the Quaternary

This paper will discuss two notable periods of exceptionally abrupt climate change during the

Quaternary late Pleistocene-early Holocene transition, where warm interglacial conditions reverted

rapidly back to glacial with respectively cooler conditions, these are the Younger Dryas stadial and

the 8.2Ka Cold Event, indicated in figure 14.

Figure 14: An Overview of Quaternary Climatic Changes, and consequential temperature oscillations; Alley, (2000)


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2.1: The Younger Dryas

The transitional phase between from glacial to interglacial, was not uniform but punctuated by an

abrupt cold stadial known as the Younger Dryas (Ruddiman and Duplessey, 1985; Broecker et al,

1988). The Younger Dryas (YD) has been dated between 12,900-11,700 calibrated years before

present by Carlson, (2013), who further gives detailed discussion of the climate impacts associated

with the YD across the globe.

Broecker et al., (1988) discuss various hypotheses for the triggering of the YD, concluding that the

likely cause was theorised by Johnson and McClure, (1976) who cited meltwater discharge from

North America as a probable cause. This was supported by Rooth, (1982) who concluded that

meltwater discharge could halt north Atlantic deep water production. Broecker et al., (1985) and

Rind et al., (1986) further supported this theory demonstrating climate characteristics of the YD as a

likely impact of the North Atlantic conveyor belt discontinuing. Broecker et al., (1989) concludes

based on isotope data that the conveyor belt did shut down during the YD and that meltwater

outflow into the North Atlantic did result in the YD cold period.

The exact triggering mechanism which initiated the YD remains unknown and controversial. Even the

source and method of meltwater discharge remains a source of much debate, with conclusions

ranging from the drainage of Lake Agassiz (Broecker et al., 1989), to an impact hypothesis (Firestone

et al., 2007; Van Hoesel et al., 2014) as well as Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles (Teller, 1990; McGuire et

al., 2002; Broecker et al., 2010)

Teller, (1990) concludes that glacial lake Agassiz shown in figure 15, drained through the great lakes

and St. Lawrence valley into the north Atlantic, shown in figure 16, a theory also shared by Clark et

al., (2001) with an estimated outburst volume ~30,000m3 (Broecker et al., 1989).


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Figure 15: Map depicting the location of Lake Agassiz and Laurentide ice sheet, typically routed through the Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico, (Broecker et al., 1989).

Figure 16: Lake Agassiz re-routed through great lakes and St. Lawrence valley into the North Atlantic during the YD, as a result of ice sheet advance, (Broecker et al., 1989).


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Later work by Teller et al., (2002) concludes that not only did a large outburst from LA possibly result

in the YD cooling event but later outbursts may have been responsible for the Preboreal Oscillation

and the 8.2ka cold event by again triggering changes in ocean circulation resulting in climatic

changes.

However Lowell et al., (2005) challenged this hypothesis, concluding an alternative triggering

mechanism for the YD should be sought based on geomorphological and chronological data which

indicated that meltwater corridors proposed for the drainage of LA were still ice damned. Lowell et

al., (2005) conclude that there was no catastrophic meltwater release from LA during the onset of

the YD, and therefore an alternative mechanism for the shutdown of thermohaline circulation (THC)

ought to be sought. It is worth noting that Lowell et al., (2005) still maintain that the YD cold event

was triggered by a break down in the North Atlantic THC, but the chain of events did not begin with

LA. This is in agreement with Teller et al., (2005) who also noted that absent flood deposits and

outflow channels in the great lakes suggest that deglaciation of the area was incomplete, preventing

outflow.

An alternative outflow route could be the Clearwater-Athabasca-Mackenzie (CAM) river basin into

the Arctic Ocean followed by North Atlantic, suggested by (Teller, 2013; Teller et al., 2005; Condron

and Winsor, 2012; Tarasov and Peltier, 2006; 2005; Murton et al., 2010; Upham, 1895; Smith and

Fisher, 1993; Teller and Thorleifson, 1983; Zoltai, 1967; Elson, 1967). Teller, (2013) presents

evidence for both eastward drainage through the great lakes and north-western drainage through

the CAM basin, concluding that as yet no definitive conclusion has been made with regards to LA

outflow route.

Furthermore Broecker et al., (2010) based on Barber et al., (1999) suggests that the rate of onset for

the YD, cannot be attributed to catastrophic outflow from LA as the rate of onset is inconsistent for

catastrophic events based on the rate of onset for the 8.2ka cold event. Therefore based on the

work by Lowell et al., (2005) and Broecker et al., (2010) there may be enough reasonable doubt

surrounding the theory of LA as a triggering mechanism for the YD to warrant identification of

alternative hypothesis.


27 | P a g e

Broecker et al., (2010) suggest that the YD, may not have been the result of catastrophic drainage or

meltwater pulses, but a natural processes in the ongoing transition from glacial to interglacial

conditions, and is a natural punctuation in the climate conditions that may or may not be the result

of Dansgaard-Oeschger events.

A further alternative conclusion to the Younger Dryas is that of the Younger-Dryas-Impact-

Hypothesis (YDIH), which proposes that an ET (Extra-terrestrial ) impact occurred ~12.9Ka BP, over

north America resulting in the Youger Dryas (Firestone et al., 2007; Pinter et al., 2011; Van Hoesel et

al., 2014). The theory suggests that impact force and heat may have been significant enough to

destabilise the Laurentide ice sheet residing over North America, providing a large source of

meltwater that may have been released into the North Atlantic or Arctic. The meltwater route is also

suggested by Teller et al., (2005, 2013) although the source of meltwater significantly differs. The

YDIH was supported by 12 impact markers used to evidence the event.

Van Hoesel et al., (2014) and Pinter et al., (2011) conclude that the evidence to support this event

fails to support the hypothesis. Pinter et al., (2011) argues extensively against the evidence used

suggesting that evidence may have either been misinterpreted, ambiguous evidence was

manipulated to suit a chain of argument, that can be explained by alternative causes. Van Hoesel et

al., (2014) propose further research areas. Overall there is very little support for the YDIH, due to

lack of supporting and valid evidence.

Overall, the causal mechanism and source for the YD remains uncertain as does the exact date of the

event (Van Hoesel et al., 2014). Meltwater triggering and AMOC shut down is cited as the most likely

trigger, but the source of meltwater remains controversial.

2.2: The 8.2Ka Cold Event

Beget, (1983) found evidence of a neoglaciation in the Northern hemisphere between ca 8500-

7500yr BP, concluding that a global cooling event must have occurred. This was the first recognition

of the 8.2ka cold event (Wang et al., 2005). Dansgaard, (1987) supported this through Greenland ice


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core records which indicated a cold event between 8.4-8.0 cal Ka BP. The 8.2Ka cold event is now

recognised as a period of abrupt climate change in the North Atlantic.

The 8.2ka cold event is believed by many to be the response to freshwater influx from glacial retreat,

impacting the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The link between freshwater,

ocean circulation and climate change was first proposed by Rooth, (1982) and later developed by

Broecker et al., (1985; 1988; 1989; 1990) Johnston and McClure, (1976) and Broecker, (1994; 1997;

1998;). As the theory stands large influxes of fresh and meltwater into the North Atlantic are capable

of halting North Atlantic Ocean Circulation, preventing the AMOC from delivering heat to high

latitudes resulting in abrupt cooling events (Li et al., 2012; Tornqvist and Hijma, 2012; Alley, 2007;

Broecker et al., (1985; 1988; 1989; 1990; Broecker,1994; 1997; 1998) in the northern hemisphere

and warming events in the southern hemisphere producing a ‘see-saw’ effect (Broecker, 1998; Alley,

2007). Knutti et al., (2004) supported this using coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice models to

effectively model the 8.2ka event and climate impacts.

The triggering mechanism for the fresh water influx is believed by many (Li et al., 2012; Tornqvist

and Hijm; 2012; Smith et al; 2011, 2013; Barber et al 1999; Alley et al., 2003; Alley and Augustsdottir,

2005; Lajeunesse and St-Onge, 2008., Cheng et al., 2009; Teller et al., 2002) to be a freshwater

outburst from glacial Lake Agassiz, with many arguing age proximity between the LAO outburst and

the 8.2ka cold event as a causal link through a freshwater influx and breakdown of the AMOC as a

triggering mechanism.

Li et al., (2012) note that uncertainty regarding the date of the 8.2ka event has prevented the

confirmation of causal links and in particular age proximity to the freshwater outburst of Lake

Agassiz. Li et al., date the LAO drainage to 8.18-8.31ka, and the 8.2ka event to 8.15-8.25ka based on

work by Thomas et al., (2007) Kobashi et al., (2007) and Cheng et al., (2009), inferring that the

drainage of LAO resulted in a rapid oceanic and atmospheric response to the influx of freshwater,

supporting cause and effect theory for age proximity of events.

Overall the causal mechanism of the 8.2ka event is most widely recognised and accepted as the final

drainage of LAO, resulting in a second shut down of the AMOC, resulting in abrupt cooling.


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Chapter 4: The Impact of Climate Change on Volcanoes

McGuire, (2010) argues that climate change triggers a geological response such as volcanic activity,

furthermore implying that contemporary climate change may consequentially induce volcanic

activity. Therefore, this Chapter aims to discuss supposed periods of increased volcanic activity and

that may correspond to periods of past rapid climate change. Secondly this chapter will review the

methods by which climate change may or may not alter volcanic processes through glacial-deglacial

cycles and sea level rise. Furthermore this chapter seeks to determine the extent to which

contemporary climate change may influence future volcanism.

Section 1: Volcanism and Past Climatic Change

Previous abrupt climate changes during the Quaternary have been linked to increased volcanism,

(Rampino, 1979; Hall, 1982; Tuffen, 2010; Watt et al., 2013; McGuire et al., 1997). Increased coastal

volcanic activity in the Mediterranean and New Zealand has been attributed to sea level rise during

the early Holocene as a result of climate change (Smith et al., 2011; Firth et al., 2005; McGuire et al.,

1997) supported by Zielinski et al., (1994; 1996) who identified increased volcanic aerosols within

the Greenland ice cores.

Zielinski et al., (1994) and Zielisnki et al., (1996) observed greatest concentrations between 13-7Ky

BP, during the Late Pleistocene-Early Holocene transitional phase, with the greatest volcanism

occurring between 9-7ky BP, in accordance with the final stages of global deglaciation. This

corresponds with increased Tephra emplacement observed by McGuire et al., (1997) in

Mediterranean Sea floor deposits (Smith et al., 2011).

Globally eruptive records show an increased frequency of volcanism between 12-7Ky BP in

deglaciating regions with a 2-6X rise in background volcanism (Huybers and Langmuir, 2009).

Globally, regionally and locally there is a statistically significant relationship between past climate

warming and increased volcanism, (Tuffen, 2010; Jellinek et al., 2004; Nowell et al., 2004; Huybers

and Langmuir, 2009; Major and Newhall, 1989) supporting the notion that previous climate change


30 | P a g e

elicited a volcanic reaction, presenting evidence for uniformitarian cause and effect, when predicting

future volcanic responses to climate change.

Evidence for increased eruptive intensity is also discussed by Zielinski, (2000) Tuffen, (2010)

McGuire, (2010) Firth et al., (2005) based on the evidence of Zielinski et al., (1994; 1996), Zielinski

(2000) argues that not only did periods of rapid climate change correspond to increased volcanic

frequency but also increased intensity and magnitude of events. This infers future climate warming

could illicit potentially increased eruptive frequency and intensity, presenting increased risk from

volcanic hazards if previous patterns were to be repeated.

Increased volcanism as a result of rapid climate change during the Quaternary has been attributed to

deglaciation following the last glacial maximum; (Zielinski, 2000; Tuffen, 2010; McGuire, 2010;

Rampino, 1979; Hall, 1982; Grove, 1974; Smith et al., 2011; McGuire and Maslin, 2013; Watt et al.,

2013) inferring that glacial-deglacial cycles may modulate volcanic activity.

McGuire, (2010) assumes the uniformitarian stance assuming that previous volcanic responses to

climate change may occur again, presenting high risk to northern latitudes and oceanic and coastal

volcanoes.

Section 2: Effects of Glacial loading and Deglacial Unloading on Volcanic

Processes

Glacial-deglacial cycles can influence the rate of decompression melting of magma (Huybers and

Langmuir, 2009; Jull and McKenzie 1996; Slater et al., 1998; Schmidt et al., 2013; Maclannan et al.,

2002). During glaciation ice weight results in lithospheric flexure, preventing adiabatic

decompression melting of magma, Slater et al., (1998) explains that mantle upwelling is halted until

the solidus pressure state is returned. When deglaciation begins during an interglacial phase,

pressure reductions through ice mass loss allows for lithospheric rebound, temporarily increasing

the rate of magma production through melt generation by ~100-140% (Schmidt et al., 2013).


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An analysis of volcanic events during the Holocene by Huybers and Langmuir, (2009) supports

deglaciation as a triggering mechanism of increased volcanism. Nakada and Yakose, (1992) support

the theory through surface mass transfer of water and ice volumes upon the lithosphere resulting in

pressure changes, capable of increasing magma production triggering volcanic activity.

Tuffen, (2010) confirms a statistically significant correlation between deglacial unloading and

increased volcanism, but recognises that timing of responses have been variable, which may be a

consequence of ice mass thickness, lithospheric thickness and characteristics such as geology and

rheology. Morner, (1971) states that loading depression is 1/3 of the thickness of the ice, however

this may vary depending on lithological structure, giving values between 0.25 and 0.33 times the

thickness. This may therefore account for the variations in volcanic responses to deglaciation.

Jull and McKenzie, (1996) believed volcanic response to deglaciation would be instantaneous,

however Slater et al., (1998) identified a 1-3Kya timescale response of Icelandic Volcanoes to

deglaciation, supporting Tuffen, (2010) and accounting for variable volcanic responses.

The analysis of explosive volcanism in ice land following the last glacial maximum, observed a 20-30x

increase in the eruptive rate of magma roughly 11Kya, coinciding with final stages of ice retreat

(Slater et al., 1998). This supports the theory of deglaciation as a triggering mechanism for increased

volcanism through increased decompression melting.

Sigvaldason et al., (1992) and Kelemen et al., (1997) proposed that increased magma production due

to magma pooling and storage within the volcanic system during glacial times, is then released

through pressure reduction during deglaciation due to ice mass loss, contributing towards increased

eruptive rates.

Gudmundsson, (1986) argues pressurisation of magma reservoirs within the main chambers of

volcanoes may occur during glaciation due to ice loads, preventing eruptions and increasing the

available store of magma, allowing for reservoir tapping, during deglaciation.


32 | P a g e

It is possible that increases in eruptive rate may be the result of the combined effect of, increased

decompression melting and magma generation, magma storage and pooling as well as reservoir

pressurisation during glacial times. Based on the evidence discussed it can be inferred that there is a

relationship between deglaciation and unloading of ice masses on volcanism. Resulting in previously

known examples of increased eruptive rates following deglaciation in Iceland, combined with the

successful modelling of these events by Jull and McKenzie, (1996) and Slater et al., (1998) confirming

this. Furthermore the statistically significant relationship between volcanism and unloading by

Tuffen, (2010) confirms this relationship.

Overall evidence suggests there is a relationship between deglaciation and increased volcanic

activity, which therefore supports the notion that future climate change and associated ice mass

losses may result in increased eruptive frequencies presenting increased risk from volcanic hazards.

Section 3: Effects of Sea Level Rise on Volcanic Processes

During deglaciation water locked up in ice is returned to the oceans, resulting in eustatic sea level

rise, this process is referred to as post glacial mass transfer by McGuire, (2010) and surface mass

redistribution (of water volumes) by Nakada and Yakose, (1992). The Early Holocene is a known

period of rapid sea level rise (Smith et al., 2011), and has been closely attributed with increased

volcanic frequency by McGuire et al., (1997) McGuire, (2010) Firth et al., (2005) and Smith et al.,

(2011).

McGuire et al., (1997) proposes that the redistribution of water volumes on the Earth’s surface

results in stress accumulations, that have may have triggered increased volcanic frequency amongst

coastal and island-arc volcanoes, during and after the early Holocene sea level rise (EHSLR). McGuire

et al., (1997) and Firth et al., (2005) identify a short term and long term volcanic response to sea

level rise.


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Short term response is considered to be the result of changes to the internal stress regime through

rising water tables, increasing the likelihood of pore pressurisation promoting phreatic activity as

magma interacts with saturated flanks, resulting in increased explosive volcanism. Rapid loading of

adjacent faults and margins may increase internal instabilities, promoting magma migration,

increasing the eruptive potential as pathways are opened. Increased rates of marine and coastal

erosion of the volcanic slopes could promote flank collapses, triggering eruptions. Furthermore

increased loading pressures along continental shelves and margins may increase confining pressures

within the main chamber potentially triggering eruptions.

Long term volcanic response, is attributed by McGuire et al., (1997) to melt ascension through

mantle loading due to increased surface pressures from increased water volumes. McGuire et al.,

(1997) conclude that finite element modelling indicates adjacent sea level rise could trigger

eruptions through a reduction in compressive stressors within the volcanic edifice. This supports

work by McNutt & Beavan (1987); McNutt, (1999) and McGuire et al. (1997) who infer that oceanic

loading and flexure results in reduced shallow compressive stressors and increased compressive

stressors at depth, in effect squeezing magma. This further supports the work by McNutt and

Beavan (1987) who concluded that eruptions at Pavlof, an Alaskan volcano in the North Pacific, may

be the result of sea level modulation. McNutt and Beavan, (1987) cite compressive strain

accumulation, through adjacent continental eustatic loading, resulting in magma squeezing and

emplacement.

McGuire et al., (1997) relates volcanic activity to sea level rate in the Mediterranean spanning the

last 80Ka, observing a comparable like for like trend between volcanic activity and sea level rise,

indicated in figure 17.


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Figure 17: Indicates that as sea level rises, the periodicity between tephra emplacing events decreases, inferring that sea level rise results in an increase in eruptive events; McGuire et al., (1997)

However in order to present a balanced and unbiased view as to how volcanism may be affected by

sea level rise, it is important to consider alternatives to the argument presented by McGuire et al.,

(1997) and again in McGuire, (2010), by counteracting this with an alternative view and possible

relationship that was not considered in McGuire., (2010). Arguments presented by Lund and

Asimow, (2011) and Mason et al., (2004), suggest that periods of increased sea level result in

reduced volcanic activity, and furthermore that periods of sea level unloading result in increased

volcanic activity, presenting an inverse argument, that McGuire., (2010) fails to recognize.

Lund and Asimow, (2011) assume the position of Jull and McKenzie, (1996) and Slater et al., (1998)

who argue that increased volcanism occurs in response to glacial unloading, and reduced volcanism

occurs during loading, Lund and Asimow therefore adopt this approach towards loading effects on

the crust and attempt to apply this to the oceanic crust with regards to eustatic loading as opposed

to glacial loading. Lund and Asimow, (2011) conclude that periods of sea level unloading should

result in increased activity, due to the removal of weight and pressure, increasing decompression

melting, followed by sea level loading resulting in a marked decrease in volcanic activity. This

theoretical argument is supported by modelling, which infers that peaks in magmatic flux occurs in


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response to sea level unloading during MIS 2+4, furthermore during sea level rise, the minimum

simulated flux is observed, this is shown in figure 18.

Figure 18: Indicates increased melting response to change in sea level inferring that magmatic flux during sea level falls during MIS stages 2 and 4, with reduced magmatic flux during sea level rise; Lund and Asimow, (2011) spreading rate is indicated by colour (75mm/yr Green; 30mm/yr Black; 10mm/yr Red)

Lund and Asimow, (2011) conclude that potentially climate may have the capacity to influence upper

mantle melting and therefore in turn volcanic activity.

Mason et al., (2004) supports this through there identification of volcanic seasonality in global,

regional and local eruptions records spanning the last 300yrs. Seasonality of eruptions show

significant correlation to environmental changes, which are linked to surface deformations in

response to the hydrological cycle. In particular Mason et al., (2004) observed a global peak in

eruptive rate during sea level falls, and in particular peak eruptions at Pavlof volcano in the north

pacific, which contrasts the conclusions of McNutt and Beavan, (1987) who associated eruptive

peaks with sea level rise. Further work should be undertaken in order to determine which hypothesis

is correct, if any at all. Furthermore Mason et al., (2004) find an absence of regionally significant

peaks in volcanism, during periods of sea level rise. Concluding that statistically enhanced volcanism

occurs during recurring annual sea level falls.


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McGuire, (2010) argues that not only will sea level rise increase the likelihood of volcanic eruptions,

but furthermore explosive volcanic eruptions as a result of volcanic flank saturation promoting

phreatic activity through magma intrusions interacting with elevated pore water pressures within

the flanks. This is supported by Liggins et al., (2010) who conclude that elevations in precipitation as

a result of climate change may increase pore water pressures within volcanic flanks, leading to

saturation and increased episodes of phreatic activity.

Capra, (2006) expands upon this discussing the impact of precipitation changes due to climate

change on volcanic flank stability, citing precipitation elevations as a triggering mechanism for

volcanic flank collapse, and possibly a trigger for eruptions. Capra, (2006) supports this with the

chain of events leading to Mt. St. Helens eruption 1980; an eruption triggered by a flank collapse,

initially triggered by an earthquake. Furthermore Capra, (2006) proposes that ‘Globally Synchronous’

collapses occurred following the LGM. Tappin, (2010) concludes that Potential increases in volcanic

flank collapses could increase the frequency of tsunami generating events.

Section 4: Contemporary Climate Change and Volcanic Activity

Overall this chapter concludes that periods of increased volcanism have been associated with

climatic change during the late Quaternary, confirming a link between climate change and

volcanism. Secondly, that increased volcanism can occur in response to deglaciation and increased

decompression melting. Thirdly, that the impact of eustatic loading/unloading is yet to be fully

understood and determined, necessitating further research. Furthermore changes in precipitation

are likely to promote phreatic activity, potentially triggering flank collapses and explosive eruptions,

with possible increases in tsunami generation.

Therefore based on the conclusions drawn, there is potential for deglaciating regions to experience

increased volcanism. The extent to which sea level rise will impact volcanism is yet to be

determined, from the view point of McGuire, (2010) oceanic and marine volcanism will increase,

however based on the views of Lund and Asimow, (2011), Volcanism will decrease, since both

arguments remain theoretical further studies are required. Furthermore regions liable to experience

increased precipitation could experience increasing phreatic activity, flank collapses, eruptions and

tsunami, whereas regions anticipating reduced precipitation may experience, less volcanic activity.


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Chapter 5: The Impact of Climate Change on Seismicity

McGuire, (2010) states that climate change results in crustal phenomena such as seismic activity,

furthermore suggesting that future climate change may result in seismic responses. Therefore, this

chapter aims to discuss previous climatic changes linked to phases of altered seismic frequency,

followed by reviewing the mechanisms by which climate change may modulate volcanic activity

through deglacial processes such as post glacial rebound and Eustatic loading through sea level rise.

Furthermore this chapter will determine to what extent future climate change is likely to alter

seismic frequency.

Section 1: Seismicity and Past Climatic Changes

Increased seismicity has been linked to deglaciation following the LGM, (Jamieson, 1865, 1882;

Kolderup, 1930; Muir-Wood, 2000; Gudmundsson, 1999; Wu et al., 1999; Chappell, 1974; Stewart et

al., 2000; Fjeldskaar et al., 2000; Dehls et al., 2000; Morner, 1978; Manga and O’Connell, 1995;

Hampel et al., 2010., 2013) particularly in formerly glaciated areas such as Fennoscandia.

Bungum et al., (2005) noted elevated seismicity following a period of aseismicity attributed to the

weight and removal of the ice load overlying the Fennoscandian crust ~10Ky BP. Stewart et al.,

(2000) supports Gregerson and Basham (1989) who concluded that “Increased seismicity

immediately follows deglaciation” supported by significant faulting in Fennoscandia following

postglacial times, during rapid deglaciation(Lagerback, 1979; Lagerback and Witscard, 1983; Muir-

Wood, 1989, 1993; Talbot, 1999; Stewart et al., 2000). This is supported by Hampel et al., (2010)

based on modelling by Turpeinen et al., (2008) indicating elevated slip rates ~15m between 10.5-

8kya. This is further supported by Stewart et al., (2000) Lagerback and Sundh (2008) Olesen, (2013)

and Olesen et al., (2004) Table 1, summarises postglacial faults in Finland, Norway and Sweden.


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Table 1: Post Glacial Faults documented in Finland, Norway and Sweden (Olesen, 2013; Modified from Olesen et al., 2004; Lagerback and Sundh, 2008; Stewart et al., 2008; Dehls et al., 2000).

Faults that have been determined as ‘almost certainly’ Neotectonics in Fennoscandia by Bungum,

(2005) are shown in Table 2.

Table 2: Norwegian post glacial faults considered to be almost certainly neotectonics and created through single events based on the outcomes of the NEONOR Project (Bungum et al., 2005; Dehls et al., 2000)

Post glacial uplift in Fennoscandia reached 850m, resulting in ~30MPa of crustal stress, which

Gudmundsson, (1999) concluded to be significant in initiating and reactivating seismogenic faults.

Gudmundsson, (1999) further suggested that reactivation of tensile and shear fractures may

increase hydraulic conductivity of upper crustal rocks. Supporting work by Costain and Bollinger,

(1996) who argue that increased hydrostatic fluid pressures within crustal rocks can promote

increased seismicity through fluid presence reducing the strength of rock asperities (Griggs, 1967;

Wylie and Mah, 2004).


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Overall it is understood that increased seismicity occurred in Fennoscandia during the final stages of

deglaciation ~10Ky BP during the early Holocene, as a consequence of climate changes and

deglaciation following the LGM. Furthermore Hampel et al., (2010) argue that postglacial seismic

amplification was not restricted to large ice sheets but also extends to smaller ice masses, supported

by increased seismicity along faults in American Basin-Range Province, potentially suggesting that

the effect of deglaciation on seismicity may have been greater than previously understood. Further

suggesting potential seismic response to climate change and deglaciation may not be constrained to

locations bearing ice sheets, but also smaller glaciated mountains and valleys, presenting potentially

greater seismic risk associated with future climate change.

Section 2: Post Glacial Rebound and Seismic Frequency

Deglaciation results in surface mass redistribution of water and ice loads as well as crustal

deformation, known as Glacio-Hydro-Isostasy (Stewart et al., 2000; Jamieson, 1865; 1882; De Geer,

1888). Glacio-Hydro-Isostasy is the process by which the earth responds to changes in water or ice

load variations upon the surface throughout glacial/Interglacial cycles (Lambeck, 2011).

Glacio-Isostasy takes place when surface loading during ice sheet growth results in crustal

subsidence or lithospheric flexure (Watts, 2001). When the ice sheet recedes unloading occurs

resulting in crustal rebound/ Isostatic uplift, (Lambeck, 2011) demonstrated in figure 19. Glacio-

Isostasy is typically accompanied by intense faulting and seismic activity (Morner, 1978).

Hydro-Isostasy occurs when ice sheets expand resulting in removal of water from the ocean or

diminish resulting in addition of water to the ocean, consequently causing the oceanic crust to

rebound or flexure, (Lambeck, 2011; Watts, 2001) demonstrated in figure 20.


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Figure 19: Demonstrates the effects of glacial loading on the crust and resulting flexure of the lithosphere; Stewart et al., (2000) adapted from Muir-Wood, (1989) and Fenton, (1992)

Figure 20: Demonstrates the effects of unloading and Glacio-Isostatic Rebound; Stewart et al., (2000) adapted from Muir-Wood, (1989) and Fenton, (1992)

Chappell, (1974) supports the theory of Glacio- Hydro-Isostasy concluding that relative sea level rise

following the last deglaciation may have resulted in ~8m of average depression across oceanic

basins, with rebound generating ~16m of mean uplift of continental areas over the last 7Kya.


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Manga and O’Connell, (1995) present the possibility that climate variations can impact mantle

dynamics based on modelling the effects of surface strain rates on the teconosphere. Stewart et al.,

(2000) support this by concluding that late Pleistocene deglaciation affected large areas

encompassing both elastic lithospheric flexure and mantle flow, resulting in sizeable crustal

deformation that continues as present.

Hampel et al., (2013) use finite element modelling to examine the reaction of faults to loading and

unloading. The model is applied to Northern Scandinavia where increased seismicity corresponds

with deglaciation, shown in figure 21.

Figure 21: Shows the direct correlation between glacial unloading and increased slip rates through ~2m unloading of the Fennoscandian ice sheet, diagram further indicates aseismicity during ice presence. Source: Hampel et al., (2010), based on work by Talbot, (1999) and Milne et al., (2001)

Modelling by Hampel et al., (2010) indicates aseismicity during the existence of the Fennoscandian

ice sheet, as a result of seismic suppression through surface loading (Stewart et al., 2000) supporting

Bungum et al., (2005) who also reported elevated seismicity following a period of aseismicity in

Fennoscandia ~10Ky BP. The timing of modelled elevated slip rates ~10.8Kya BP, corresponds with

paleo-seismological records,(Morner, 2004; Bungum et al., 2005) linking theoretical and empirical

studies in order to support the notion of increased seismicity in Fennoscandia as a result of removal

of the Fennoscandian ice sheet during deglaciation, supporting the conclusion of Hampel et al.,


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(2010) that deglaciation did cause the period of increased seismicity in Scandinavia. This therefore

supports the notion of postglacial rebound as a trigger for increases seismic frequency.

Evidence of postglacial increases in seismicity due to rebound can also be found in the United States,

where the Wasatch (see figure 22) and Teton Fault (see figure 23) have indicate elevated slip rates

following the LGM (Byrd et al., 1994; McCaplin, 2002; Ruleman and Lagerson, 2002; Hetzel and

Hampel, 2005; Hampel et al., 2010) shown in figure 24.

Figure 22: Map depicting the location of the Wasatch Fault; Utah Geological Survey, (1996)

Figure 23: Map indicating the location of the Teton fault; Hampel et al., (2010)


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Figure 24: Graph indicating elevated slip rates along the Wasatch Fault during the LGM; Hampel et al., (2010)

Hetzel and Hampel, (2005) attribute Wasatch faulting to increasing slip rates through PGR from

regression of lake Bonneville and retreat of the Unite and Wasatch Mountain Glaciers. 3D modelling

indicates 69m uplift in agreement with palaeo-shoreline records. Modelling slip rates are further in

accordance with geological and palaeo-seismological data which shows triangulated evidence based

of quantitative evidence to support postglacial increases in seismicity through deglaciation processes

such as redistribution of smaller volumes of ice and water loads.

Teton faulting is linked to melting of the Yellowstone Ice cap and valley glaciers. 3D modelling by

Hampel et al., (2007) that original surface loading from Yellowstone Ice cap lead to ~80m crustal

subsidence around 22kya BP. Modelling infers a reduction in seismicity during ice accumulation,

followed by slip rate increase when deglaciation begins, with heightened rates occurring between

16-8kya BP, shown in figure 25, supported by palaeo-seismological data.


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Figure 25: Graph indicates the effects of ice loading on the Teton fault, with elevated slip rate between 16-8Ky BP; Hampel et al., (2010)

Evidence for postglacial seismicity as a consequence of deglaciation and uplift may also be found in

the European Alps. 10m fault scarps have been identified and attributed to PGR (Ustaszewski et al.,

2008; Norton and Hampel, 2010; Hampel et al., 2010). Modelling by Norton and Hampel (2010)

resulted in the conclusion that increased seismicity may have been triggered by unloading and uplift

of the valley floor resulting in slip increases in ridge crests along zones of existing weakness

(Ustaszewski et al., 2008).

Palaeo-seismological data suggests that faulting in the Upper-Rhine may be responsible for the Basel

Earthquake of 1356, and is attributed to on-going alpine deglaciation (Hampel et al., 2010), inferring

that if deglaciation in alpine regions continues as is to be expected based on current Global Climate

Models (GCM’s) increased seismicity maybe likely resulting in future hazards and risks to

mountainous alpine regions.

Johnston, (1987, 1989) suggested seismicity in Antarctica and Greenland may be impeded by the ice

sheet presence above, supporting the theory of aseismicity during glacial loading and ice sheet

presence (Hamepl et al., 2010; Bungum et al., 2005; Stewart et al., 2000). Suber et al., (2000) Suber

and Molnia, (2004) and Larsen et al., (2005) supported this theory investigating seismic modulation

through glacial ice mass fluctuations, supported by seismic evidence between 1993 and 1995,


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indicating elevated seismicity in response to ice mass redistribution on a large scale. Results suggest

there is potential for elevated seismicity if future climate change continues and ice sheets decay.

Hampel et al., (2010) support the conclusion of future seismic response of ice mass loss in Greenland

and Antarctica through the reduced seismicity along the Teton fault during the Yellowstone Ice cap

existence and increased seismicity following its decay, taking the uniformitarian stance that

Greenland and Antarctica should behave in the same way.

Section 3: Eustatic Loading and Seismic Frequency

Following the LGM, sea level rose by ~120m between 20-7kya,(Smith et al., 2013; Fleming et al.,

1998) as a result of deglaciation, shown in figure 26.The Early Holocene is associated with the final

stage of deglaciation, resulting in rapid sea level rise ~60m, between 11.65-7Ka (Smith et al., 2011)

shown in figure 27. Sea level rise averaged between ca 10mm with maximums during the EHSLR of

ca12-13mm/yr (Bard et al, 2010; Smith et al, 2013).

Figure 26: Global Relative Sea Level rise following the LGM 20Kya to present; Fleming et al., (1998)


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Figure 27: Rapid Global Eustatic Sea Level Rise during the Holocene period 10Kya to present; Fleming et al., (1998)

The rate of sea level rise has not been constant, instead showing incremental, punctuated rises in SL

that Tornqvist and Hijma (2012) may result from meltwater, supporting Blanchon and Shaw, (1995)

and Bird et al (2010) who concluded that rapid rates of sea level rise may be controlled by large

subglacial and proglacial influxes of meltwater. Estimated times of meltwater pulses during SLR since

the LGM can be seen in figure 28.


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Figure 28: Graph indicating Relative sea level rise since the LGM, graph shows ~120m rise in Eustatic sea level, with incremental jumps, attributed with possible meltwater pulses; Gornitz, (2007)

Smith et al., (2013) argue for a causal link between the rate of SLR during the EH, and increased

seismicity, based on SLR being a known cause of continental flexure and steepening (Bourcart, 1950)

however this has not been empirically confirmed to have impacted seismicity. Smith et al., (2013)

reaffirm the argument by Fairbridge, (1961) that hydro-isostatic effects by deglaciation result in

subsidence of the continental shelf and rebound of the adjacent crust, by supporting this with work

by mitrovica and petlier, (1991) who suggest inland meltwater migration to the continental shelf

increases loading. Furthermore modelling by Hutton et al., (2013) suggest ~30 % shelf steepening

occurred following the LGM, however this remains purely theoretical and only factors in SL loading,

potentially oversimplifying margin complexities, un-accounting for sedimentation and isostasy.

Smith et al., (2013) suggest that flexure probably resulted in increased seismicity, but fails to support

this with more than theoretical modelling and cause and effect theory.

Modells by luttrell and Sandwell, (2010) calculate ‘likely’ stress responses to oceanic loading since

the LGM, without palaeo-seismological data to support modelling. Luttrell and Sandwell, (2010)

conclude that the link between SLR and seismic induction remains unproven and unsubstantiated,


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but modelling confirms a potential for SLR to modulate seismic activity, however extent remains

unclear due to epistemic and aleatory uncertainties.

Smith et al., (2013) draw findings by Usman et al., (2011) who argue increased seismic frequency of

3-3.9Mw events along the Pakistani continental margin is a result of SLR. The paper merely presents

2 known increasing observable trends, with a possible cause and effect theory. However the authors

fail to statistically test this relationship, allowing for alternative conclusions as to cause and effect,

such as seismic cyclicities (McGuire, 2008; Bollinger and Costain, (1988). Furthermore the data set

spans 48yrs, indicating very little into true seismicity, indicating data bias, chosen in particular to

manipulate this apparent trend, in order to seek a theoretical link, with a known upward trend such

as SLR. Overall this suggests that in fact SLR may not be a causal mechanism and other factors may

be at play. In order to substantiate this ‘established’ link palaeo-seismological data would also be

required, to prove a long term trend exists, combining theoretical and empirical statistical studies to

remove uncertainties. Until this has been done this research should be disregarded as confirming a

link between SLR and increased seismicity. This furthermore enhances the fact that research used to

present the argument of SLR and increased seismicity by Smith et al., (2013) remains theoretical and

unsubstantiated.

Smith et al., (2013) further draw on Brothers et al., (2013) who identify columb stress increases of

>1Mpa across passive continental margin fault systems during the LP-EH transition, inferring a link

between SLR and seismicity. This supports earlier work by Brothers, (2011) which investigates the

effects of water loading on the San Andreas Fault, concluding that the combination of lake loading

elevated pore pressures and fault movement may be significant stressors to initiate fault rupture;

suggesting smaller hydrological loads may influence seismic frequency. Brothers et al., (2013)

supports this further by concluding that eustatic SLR may result in flexural stresses influential to

seismicity, results imply fault rupturing along passive margins between 15-8Kya was a likely

consequence of rapid SLR. This effectively supports the theoretical argument of Smith et al., (2013)

in that margin flexure from rapid eustatic rise may result in increased seismicity.

Overall Smith et al., (2013) present a compelling argument for rate of sea level rise and increased

seismicity, based on theoretical literature and modelling. However theoretical this remains,

requiring quantitative empirical studies to remove epistemic and aleatory uncertainties that


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surround the theory in order to substantiate. However challenges regarding the palaeo-

seismological record must be recognised, as a limitation to many studies. Furthermore the presence

of other influential processes during the EHSLR may also be seismically inducing such as PGR,

obscuring the reality of results. To overcome this further research into the effects of rapid sea level

rise on seismic frequency should be conducted away from glaciated and formerly glaciated margins

where PGR may be influential.

Section 4: Contemporary Climate Change and Seismic Activity

Overall based on the literature reviewed within this chapter it can be understood that PGR in

Fennoscandia did result in increased seismicity during peak deglaciation. The mechanism by which

PGR can influence Seismicity is understood and effectively modelled, further supported by palaeo-

seismological records. Therefore it is likely that to some extent seismic frequency may increase as a

result of continued ice mass loss at ice sheets, glaciers and ice caps. Currently further research is

required to effectively substantiate the cause and effect theory between SLR and increased

seismicity, as yet, theoretical studies and modelling have failed to provide comprehensive

understanding, in order to determine a future response. It could be concluded that there may to

some extent be potential for SLR to impact seismicity.

Chapter 6: The Impact of Climate Change on Submarine Failures

With increasing development along the continental shelves, slopes, margins and basins, submarine

failures are potentially hazardous to offshore marine installations and telecommunications.

Furthermore Submarine failures have the capacity to produce large devastating tsunami, hazardous

to coastal communities, such as the Papua New Guinea submarine landslide and tsunami in 1998,

(Tappin, 2001; 2008).

This chapter will discuss the methods by which submarine failures may have been influenced by

climate change in the past, followed by potential influences climate change may have on submarine

mass transport processes and determine whether future climate change may alter the frequency

and/or the intensity of these mass transport events.


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Section 1: Submarine Failures

Prior and Coleman, (1979) state that Submarine Landslides are the most common form of slope

instability, often greater in volume than terrestrial counterparts, figure 29, shows the four main

types of submarine mass failure.

Figure 29: Diagrams indicate the 4 main types of submarine instability; Prior and Coleman, (1979)

The causes of submarine landslides are indicated in figure 30, and the factors and processes

responsible for initiating Submarine Mass failures and Identified in figure 31.


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Figure 30: Identifies the causes of submarine landslides; Locat and Lee, (2002)

Figure 31: Diagrammatic representation of the factors and processes responsible for initiating Submarine Slope Failures; Prior and Coleman, (1979)

Tappin, (2010) identified known locations of submarine mass failures, as shown in figure 32.


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Figure 32: Map showing the locations of known Submarine Mass Failures; Red dots indicate submarine failures known or thought to have triggered tsunami, Yellow dots, Indicate failures along convergent margins, Green dots indicate continental shelves, Blue dots indicate active river systems; Tappin, (2010)

Failure occurs when shear stress exceeds shear strength (Henkel, 1970). Figure 2, shows the known

locations of submarine failures, typically occurring most commonly in deltas, submarine canyon-fan

systems, fjords, continental slopes and volcanic flanks (Hampton et al., 1996; Lee, 2005, 2009;

Tappin, 2010). Controls on submarine slope stability have been identified by Lee, (2009) these

include i) sedimentation rates, volumes and types, ii) thickness of sediments, iii) changes in sea floor

condition affecting hydrate stability, v) seismicity and vi) alterations in ground water flow.

However Tappin, (2010) believes these controls to be in turn controlled by larger driving forces such

as glacial-deglacial cycles attributed to climate changes. Tappin, (2010) basis this notion on the idea

that environmental changes may result in changes in the factors that influences slope instability,

resulting in the slope sediment becoming ‘primed’ or ‘pre-conditioned’ for failure, which then only

requires a triggering mechanism or event to initiate the failure, such as an earthquake.


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Section 2: Submarine Failures and Past Climatic Changes

The Quaternary is a period renowned for exceptional climate changes, during the

Pleistocene/Holocene transitions from glacial to interglacial and the various stadial/interstadial

oscillations that occur. Urlaub et al., (2013) compiled a data set of large global submarine landslides,

with known ages and volumes from the Quaternary period, shown in figure 33.

Figure 33: Locations of Submarine Landslides; Different symbols represent differing depositional systems (dots: glaciated

regions, rectangles: sediment-starved margins, triangles: river fan systems,); Urlaub et al., (2013). The map indicates the

majority of known submarine landslides occur in the northern latitudes; however this could be due to data biases.

It has been suggested by a variety of authors for many years now that climate change maybe

capable of influencing the occurrence of submarine slides through, glacial/interglacial sedimentation

rates, sea level rise, glacio-hydro-isostacy and increased seismic triggering mechanisms. This chapter

will therefore discuss the mechanisms by which climate change may have the capacity to alter

submarine mass transport processes that may trigger submarine failures.


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Section 3: Rates of Sedimentation and Slope Stability

Changes in the parameters that affect slope stability identified by Lee, (2009) can be a consequence

of glacial-deglacial cycles as a result of changes in the sediment regime, influencing pore pressures

within the slope sediments.

During glacial times, rapid thick sedimentation occurs, resulting in increasing pore pressures

(Kvalstad et al., 2005; Tappin, 2010; Smith et al., 2011; Stigall, 2009; Dugan and Stigall, 2009; Laberg

et al., 2006). Interglacials result in the deposition of fine grained sediments that are susceptible to

failure (Tappin, 2010). This has been linked as the ‘priming’ and ‘preconditioning’ mechanism that

may result in failure once triggered, by an event such as an earthquake through isostatic rebound or

gas hydrate dissociation (Kvalstad et al., 2005; Tappin, 2010; Smith et al., 2011; Stigall, 2009; Dugan

and Stigall, 2009; Laberg et al., 2006; Liggins et al., 2010; Maslin et al., 2010).

Rates of sedimentation are greater during glacial periods than interglacial periods (Tappin, 2010),

this alters the sediment regime of submarine slopes, leading to excess pore pressures that result in

sediment preconditioning (Tappin, 2010) making the slopes liable to failure through triggering

mechanisms. This process has been used to explain the Storegga Submarine Landslide Event.

Gacio-isostastic-seismicity; as previously discussed in chapter 5, post glacial rebound (PGR) occurs as

a result of glacial unloading resulting in the uplift of the crust that lay beneath the former ice mass,

this can lead to elevated slip rates along tectonic faults (Hampel et al., 2010), resulting in increased

seismic frequency. Chapter 5 also discussed the relationship between eustatic loading from rapid sea

level rise on seismicity, concluding there could be a link, but at this stage it remains theoretical.

Chapter 5 concluded that PGR has been a likely control on observed elevated seismicity in formerly

glaciated areas and furthermore there may be a link between the rates of sea level rise on seismic

frequency.

It is believed that seismicity may have been the triggering mechanism for the Storegga submarine

mass failure that occurred offshore mid Norway. Tappin, (2010) believes this to be the result of PGR


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whilst Smith et al., (2013) believe it to be the result of eustatic sea level rise increasing potential

seismicity.

Section 4: The Holocene Storegga Slide

The Holocene Storegga slide is a large submarine landslide identified on the mid-Norwegian

continental margin. The slide is one of eight submarine slides identified within the Storegga slide

complex (Solheim et al., 2005). The Norwegian continental margin is prone to large scale sliding due

to its structural setting and sedimentary deposition linked to changes in the sediment regime

through glacial/interglacial cycles, with a slide recurrence interval suggested by Solheim et al., (2005)

of approximately 1/100ky following glacial/interglacial sequences. Slide characteristics and

morphologies are similar as discussed by Solheim et al., (2005), further strengthening the

glacial/interglacial cyclic control on submarine activity upon this margin.

The Holocene Storegga slide is the most fully understood, research undertaken to understand the

geohazards of the area as a result of the Ormen-Lange gas field proposals which lead to significant

multi-disciplinary research and advancements in submarine slope science (Solheim et al., 2005).

Solheim et al., (2005) explain the Storegga slide as being a translational slide, dated by Bondevik et

al., (2012) to between 8120-8175ky, using green mosses preserved in the tsunami deposits. Dating

places the slide around the same time as the 8.2ka cold event. One conclusion that could be drawn is

that like the 8.2ka event, Storegga was also a response to the Lake Aggasiz-Ojibway (LAO) outburst.

4.1: The 8.2Ka Event, LAO and Storegga

As discussed in Chapter 3, the 8.2ka event 8.15-8.25ka BP, is believed to have been triggered by the

outburst of LAO 8.18-8.31ka BP, (Li et al., 2012; Tornqvist and Hijma, 2012; Smith et al., 2013; Smith

et al., 2011; Barber et al., 1999; Alley et al., 2003; Alley and Augustsdottir, 2005; Lajeunesse and St-

Onge, 2008., Cheng et al., 2009; Teller et al., 2002) outflow was a result of deglaciation of the

Laurentide ice sheet during the EHSLR warm period.


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Smith et al., (2011) review evidence for the cause of the 8.2ka event, expanding on the work of

Barber et al., (1999) who suggested the event had been triggered by the LAO outflow. Smith et al.,

(2011) argues causal link through the age proximity of the two events when reviewing the time

evidence for both events, showing that outflow is a likely causal triggering mechanism for the 8.2ka

event. This is later expanded in Smith et al., (2013) to incorporate the Storegga submarine landslide

in to this chain of events, citing the rapid sea level jump associated with the drainage of LAO, and the

8.2ka event as a possible triggering mechanism.

Smith et al., (2013) argue this case with Storegga dated to 8120-8175ky BP (Bondevik et al., 2012)

and LAO drainage at 8.18-8.31ka BP, suggesting that the age proximity of the events may indicate a

cause and effect relationship through rapid sea level rise and overburdening of the submarine

sediments.

Smith et al., (2013) not only argue that the LAO outflow inferred a dramatic oceanic and climatic

response triggering the 8.2ka event, but may have potentially elicited a geospheric response through

the Storegga submarine failure. This is due to the fact the LAO drainage resulted in global eustatic

rise of ~1.11-4.19m based on an outflow volume of ~ 40,000-151,000km3 (Clarke et al., 2004; Lewis

et al., 2012) this rapid Eustatic rise may have triggered Storegga through overburdening and pore

pressurization of the unconsolidated glacial deposits through eustatic rise. This argument for cause

and effect can be observed in figure 34.

Figure 34: Time graph, showing age proximity of events; LAO discharge, Holocene Storegga slide and Storegga slide tsunami; Smith et al., (2013)


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This hypothesis shared by Trincardi et al., (2003) who identify a possible relationship between the

rate of sea level rise and submarine failure. Trincardi et al., (2003) discuss two slides identified along

the Tyrrhenian margin, dated to 13-14kya, the authors note that this corresponds with a known

rapid rise in sea level as a result of meltwater pulse 1A (MWP1A). The authors also argue for age

proximity as a causal mechanism, suggesting like smith et al., (2013) that rapid loading could be

attributed to failure.

Trincardi et al., (2003) also suggest further investigation into the BIG’95 debris flow, as the timing of

this event also corresponds with the suspected timing of meltwater pulse (MWP1B) as shown in

figure 35. However Canals et al., (2004) conclude that although sedimentation and SLR would have

been important preconditioning mechanisms the most likely trigger was seismic based on

earthquake return intervals of mw4-5/5yrs.

Figure 35: Graph indicating the possible relationship between meltwater pulses, sea level rise and submarine landslides, through age proximity of events. Big ’95 debris flow corresponds with timing of MWP 1B; And the Tyrrhenian slides (Paola & Licosa) correspond with MSP 1A; Trincardi et al., (2003)

Section 5: Sea Level Rise and Submarine Failures

The idea that sea level rise may trigger submarine failures, is supported by a range of authors;

Garziglia et al., (2003) theorise that the S16 event along the Western Nile Margin, occurred during

the Quaternary around the time of high rates of sedimentation and rapid sea level rise, inferring an


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age proximity relationship for a triggering mechanism. Georgiopoulou et al., (2010) also suggest a

link between increased sedimentation rates, followed by sea level rise, causing excess pore

pressures as a trigger for the Saharan slope failure, supported by evidence from other slides found

along the African Continental Margin.

This is also supported by Wien et al., (2006) who suggest that turbidite deposition the Submarine

Canyon off NW Africa is heavily associated with sea level changes during glacial/interglacial

transitions, arguing that both sea level fall and sea level rise as potential causes for slope

instabilities. This was further developed by Wien et al., (2007) who concluded that the Mauretania

slide complex can be linked to Quaternary sea level rise. This is in agreement with the conclusions of

Antobreh and Krastel, (2007) whom identified sediment preconditioning and excess pore pressures

to have primed the slope. Seismic reflection data indicated that a likely trigger would be an

earthquake. However as yet no such seismic trigger has been identified, inferring SLR on its own may

have created substantial pore pressures to exceed strength and initiate failure. This is in agreement

with Prior and Suhyada, (1979) who suggested that when large pore water pressures exist within

sediments they alone may overcome shear strength through gravitational forces, as previously

discussed by Terzaghi, (1956).

However, Stigall and Dugan, (2010) believe that the combination of increased pore pressures as a

preconditioning mechanism and seismicity as a trigger is required, in agreement with Tappin, (2010)

and Smith et al., (2013). However using the available global submarine landslide database, Urlaub et

al., (2013) find no statistical significance to a relationship between SLR and Submarine landslide

occurrence. However the analysis uses global sea level curves as opposed to local sea level curves,

oversimplifying the system and introducing aleatory uncertainties, to a topic where large epistemic

uncertainties already exist with regards to data collection.

5.2: Eustatic Induced Seismicity as a triggering mechanism

Smith et al., (2013) further suggest that the rapid jump in sea level as a result of the freshwater

outflow from LAO may have been influential in triggering the earthquake which is thought to have

initiated the Storegga failure. This opinion is contrasted by Trincardi et al., (2003) who believe that

the rapid sea level rise and overburdening may have been enough alone to have triggered the two


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slides along the Tyrrhenian margin, whilst noting that a tectonic trigger independent of eustatic

pressure may have triggered the failures.

Smith et al., (2013) have linked the earthquake triggering mechanism of Storegga to increased

seismicity as a result of sea level rise, this is in contrast to the conclusion of Tappin, (2010) who

believes the earthquake trigger to be the result of increased seismicity through PGR, supported by

Brothers et al., (2013) who state based on work Bungum et al., (2005) Wu and Johnston, (2000) and

Klemann and Wolf, (1998) that; crustal stresses as a result of sea level rise in high latitudes adjacent

to glacial masses are likely to be of less significance than those attributed to PGR and Isostatic uplift.

This therefore means that although the theoretical link between rate of sea level rise and increased

seismicity has been made by Smith et al., (2013) as yet it remains to be unproven as a significant

influence on seismicity, whilst the link between PGR and seismicity in Norway has been identified,

indicating that the most likely trigger of the Storegga submarine failure was PG seismicity as

concluded by Tappin, (2010).

Furthermore as yet no quantitative empirical data has been used to support the notion of sea level

rise inducing seismicity, as previously discussed in chapter 2, therefore further research would be

required to correspond modelling and palaeo-siesmicity along the Norwegian continental margin to

determine seismic occurrence and likely causes. However, it is unlikely that a complete data set

could be identified, in an area which has experienced sliding, postglacial rebound as well as marine

environmental changes that may alter the deposits.

However, it should be noted that whether or not a link is confirmed between sea level rise and

seismicity, earthquakes are a known triggering mechanism for submarine failures (Tappin, 2010;

Tappin et al., 1998) and that the Storegga slide was most likely initiated by an earthquake source.

Furthermore, there remains a large amount of uncertainty into palaeo-events, that require more

research in order to remove there epistemic uncertainties, in order to accurately conclude the cause

and effect relationships between the ‘ocean-cryosphere-atmosphere’ and geosphere in order to

ascertain the likelihood of increased submarine activity in the future.


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Section 6: Contemporary Climate Change and Submarine Failures

This section has demonstrated the link between glacial/deglacial cycles as preconditioning

mechanisms for slope instability. This chapter has also demonstrated the link between earthquakes

and submarine failures concluding that they are a viable triggering mechanism for initiating

submarine failure. This chapter discussed the link between sea level rise and seismicity as a trigger

for submarine slope failure and finds that as yet there is insufficient evidence to demonstrate SL

induced seismicity as a triggering mechanism for initiating failure; however it may be possible but

unlikely particularly in the case of the Holocene Storegga Slide.

Overall this chapter concludes that further deglaciation due to current climate change may result in

increased seismicity which could trigger future submarine failures, which may potentially generate

tsunami’s similar to that of the Holocene Storegga submarine landslide and Tsunami.

Chapter 7: Final Discussion and Concluding Remarks

Section 1: Final Discussion

Climate change presents large amounts of uncertainty, when predicting and modelling future

scenarios. However it is almost certain that warming as a result of anthropogenic activity has been

observed and can be expected to continue, resulting in 3 key impacts; temperature increase,

continued ice mass wasting and continued sea level rise. According to McGuire, (2010) this should

elicit a response from the geosphere.

Based on an analysis, evaluation and discussion of the literature this paper concludes that;

Deglaciation associated with climate change has previously increased volcanism therefore there is a link between climate change and volcanic activity.


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The extent to which sea level rise may have impacted volcanic frequency is yet to be fully determined.

It is likely that sea level rise did result in increased explosive volcanism through increased phreatic activity.

It is almost certain that deglaciation in northern latitudes did result in post glacial rebound and increased seismicity.

The extent to which sea level rise has impacted seismicity, is yet to be fully determined.

It is likely that increased submarine mass failures occurred as a result of climatic changes, changing the stability of slopes, preconditioning them to failure, by an external triggering mechanism, this has been effectively demonstrated using the Holocene Storegga Slide.

It is likely that preconditioned slopes have been triggered by seismicity to failure, which may likely also have been the result of climatically induced seismicity.

It may be possible for rapid rates of sea level rise during a meltwater pulse to induce slope failure.

It is likely that increased volcanism, seismicity and submarine landslides occurred in response to climate warming and deglacial processes during the late Pleistocene-early Holocene.

Furthermore it is likely that increased volcanism, seismicity and submarine slide, may have potential to increase tsunami frequency.

Based on the theoretical and modelled links between the geological phenomena discussed and

periods of abrupt climate change, it is likely that rapid climatic changes have the potential to trigger

geological activity. This is therefore crucial in determining the likely and probable impacts of

contemporary climate change in the future in order to adequately prepare, communicate and

mitigate towards potentially increasing vulnerability and risk.

With regards to future contemporary climate change, the full extent remains uncertain, based on

current climate modelling, similarities and comparisons can be drawn to rapid warming experienced

during the late Quaternary. Therefore taking the uniformitarian stance, such as was done by

McGuire, (2010) it could be considered that previous geological responses may again occur in time, if

climate change continues. The extent and rate of onset to this response cannot be adequately

determined without further research into removing the epistemic, aleatory and ontological

uncertainties that surround climate science. However it is likely that;

High Latitudes currently glaciated regions, will continue to experience increasing ice mass

loss through deglaciation, this extends between large ice sheets to small ice capped

mountains and valleys. Therefore those with a volcanic presence may be expected to

experience increased volcanism following the final stages of deglaciation.


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Glaciated regions across the globe will continue to experience ice mass decay and may

therefore be expected to experience increased seismicity in response to unloading and

rebound.

Globally there may be potential for increased submarine mass failures, due to climate

priming and preconditioning of slopes that may potentially triggered to fail through sea level

rise or post glacial seismicity and tectonic seismicity.

Globally there may potentially be greater tsunami generating events, increasing the

frequency of tsunamis, potentially increasing the risk in coastal and oceanic settings.

Overall significant amounts of multi-disciplinary research is required to unite areas such as climate

science, palaeoclimate science, palaeoseismicity, palaeovolcanism, and palaeoceanography, in order

to maximise our current understanding and pursue areas of further research that are crucial towards

reducing epistemic uncertainties, as well as aleatory uncertainties surrounding complex systems.

Integrated approaches need to be utilised in order to amalgamate theoretical and empirical studies,

linking currently monitored and observable trends to palaeo records and modelling in order to

develop a holistic understanding, which can begin to substantiate or discredit theoretical cause and

effect relationships.

Overall it is likely that to some extent, there may be a hazardous geological reaction to continuing

climate change. Therefore further research is critical to our understanding, in order to continue with

the hope of sustainable development physically and socially to allow for adequate and appropriate

adaption in order to increase coping capacities, reduce vulnerabilities, employing appropriate

disaster reduction methodologies in order to compensate for potentially increased risks associated

with a potential geological response to climate change.

Section 2: Concluding Remarks

This paper concludes with areas that may be suggested for further research, based on the material

reviewed, in order to further develop understanding of how the geosphere may respond to climate

change

Monitoring, is of crucial importance in order to better determine current geological responses to

climatic changes, in order to understand and observe tangible relationships, that may or may not exist

between climate change and geological processes, in order to support modelling predictions.


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Further research is required in order to determine the full extent of the volcanic response to

deglaciation during the late quaternary in order to determine likely response scenarios with regards to

contemporary and future climate change.

Significant multi-disciplinary research is required in order to develop the theories that argue both for

and against an increase in volcanism in response to eustatic loading, in order to determine the true

response, if any at all occurs, in order to better understand possible responses to future sea level rise.

Long term, site specific monitoring at currently deglaciating regions and oceanic regions experiencing

sea level rise.

Further research is required to determine to fully determine the extent deglaciation had on seismicity

during the quaternary in order to better and model and predict likely responses that may be observed in

currently deglaciating regions.

Extensive research is required to determine or disprove the link between sea level rise and seismicity,

incorporating both palaeo-seismic data, palaeo-shoreline data, in order to compare modelling

observations with actual observations of hydro-isostasy.

Global multi-disciplinary studies should be undertaken in order to locate and map submarine failures,

dating and morphometry, and associated triggering mechanisms should be compiled in order to

establish the full extent of submarine sliding during the quaternary, and most common triggering

mechanisms, which may be associated with climate change, therefore allowing for improved

understanding of potential submarine responses to climate changes.

Increased sea floor mapping, particularly along continental margins, slopes and rises should be

undertaken in order to identify potential locations that may be prone to future submarine failures,

particularly in northern latitudes undergoing deglaciation.

Improved modelling of tsunami generating events in triggered by volcanic collapses, seismicity and

submarine landslides in order to better understand future tsunami risks.

Mapping of potential locations for tsunami generation according to geological hazard.

Overall significant research is required in order to truly confirm and determine geological responses

to climate change, this paper concludes that until uncertainties can be removed, the true extent to

which climate change may influence geological hazards cannot be accurately determined.


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Documents

Buller (2014) The Impacts of Climate Change on Geological Processes