Building a Tool for Battle Planning: Challenges, Tradeoffs,

and Experimental FindingsAlexander KottAlexander Kott, , Ray BuddRay Budd,, Larry Larry

GroundGround, , Lakshmi RebbapragadaLakshmi Rebbapragada, and , and John LangstonJohn Langston

Presented by Ling ZhaoUniversity of AlbertaFebruary 28, 2006

Outline

Overview of the toolOverview of the tool Key requirements and challengesKey requirements and challenges Technical approachTechnical approach Experimental evaluationExperimental evaluation Lessons and future directionsLessons and future directions

The Quest for New Tools

The US army explores computeriztion of The US army explores computeriztion of the military planning process.the military planning process.

Manual process is cumbersome, inflexible Manual process is cumbersome, inflexible and slow, yet life and death relies on it.and slow, yet life and death relies on it.

Success depends on synchronizing the Success depends on synchronizing the movement of units, firepower and other movement of units, firepower and other effects at a precise moment.effects at a precise moment.

The Tool: CADET

The Course of Action Development and The Course of Action Development and Evaluation Tool (CADET), is a tool to Evaluation Tool (CADET), is a tool to automatically translate a basic concept to a automatically translate a basic concept to a fully formed, actionable plan.fully formed, actionable plan.

It is a key step in the military’s standard It is a key step in the military’s standard decision making process.decision making process.

CADET

Input: Proposed courses of action (COA) for the Input: Proposed courses of action (COA) for the friendly forces, developed in a previous step, and friendly forces, developed in a previous step, and expressed as high-level concepts.expressed as high-level concepts.

Process: Expand COA into hundreds of supporting Process: Expand COA into hundreds of supporting tasks required to accomplish the intended tasks required to accomplish the intended objective, and friendly COA is tested against the objective, and friendly COA is tested against the most likely/dangerous COA of the enemy.most likely/dangerous COA of the enemy.

Purpose: Produce an analytical baseline from Purpose: Produce an analytical baseline from which the commander can choose the best COA.which the commander can choose the best COA.

COA sketch and COA statement

Manual Process

Commander develops a minimum of 3 COA.Commander develops a minimum of 3 COA. Planning staff work as a team for several hours.Planning staff work as a team for several hours. Outcome is a synchronization matrix.Outcome is a synchronization matrix. Content of a plan: tasks and actions of subunits and Content of a plan: tasks and actions of subunits and

assets of the friendly force; their objectives and and assets of the friendly force; their objectives and and manner of execution, expected timing, dependencies and manner of execution, expected timing, dependencies and synchronization; routes and locations; availability of synchronization; routes and locations; availability of supplies; combat losses, enemy situation and actions, etc.supplies; combat losses, enemy situation and actions, etc.

The final product is an executable COA translated into a The final product is an executable COA translated into a synchronized operational plan.synchronized operational plan.

Synchronization matrix

How CADET works … Human defines COA through interface.Human defines COA through interface. Definition of COA is passed to CADET.Definition of COA is passed to CADET. CADET decomposes the tasks into more detailed actions CADET decomposes the tasks into more detailed actions

with dependencies.with dependencies. CADET display the result to the user as a CADET display the result to the user as a

synchronization matrix and/or as animated movements synchronization matrix and/or as animated movements on the map-based interface.on the map-based interface.

The user views the result, and may edit COA or the The user views the result, and may edit COA or the detailed plan, and presents it to the commander.detailed plan, and presents it to the commander.

The commander can focus on the “art of war” with the The commander can focus on the “art of war” with the help on the “science of war” from CADET.help on the “science of war” from CADET.

CADET Speeds Up the Process

General George S Patton Jr.: “[A] good plan General George S Patton Jr.: “[A] good plan violently executed now is better than a violently executed now is better than a prefect plan next week”.prefect plan next week”.

CADET has been used in military labs and CADET has been used in military labs and a CADET-assisted planner performed a CADET-assisted planner performed dramatically faster than a conventional dramatically faster than a conventional human-only planning staff, with human-only planning staff, with comparable quality of plans.comparable quality of plans.

COA Human Interface:

Input to CADET:

Logistic Analysis of A Single Unit:

Logistic Analysis of All Resources (human intervention):

Map-based Result:

Synchronization MatrixSynchronization Matrix:

Key requirements and challenges

A complex domain with strongly depended A complex domain with strongly depended planning (activity), scheduling (timing), planning (activity), scheduling (timing), routing problems.routing problems.

Need to estimate attrition and consumption.Need to estimate attrition and consumption. Need to consider adversarial reactions.Need to consider adversarial reactions. Speed is extremely important (response in Speed is extremely important (response in

the order of seconds).the order of seconds). Friendly user interface.Friendly user interface.

The CADET Technical Approach

Hierarchical Task Network (HTN) Hierarchical Task Network (HTN) Planning Against Dynamic EnemyPlanning Against Dynamic Enemy Knowledge RepresentationKnowledge Representation

Hierarchical Task Network

HTN-like planning step produces an HTN-like planning step produces an incremental group of tasks by applying incremental group of tasks by applying domain-specific expansion rules.domain-specific expansion rules.

A relatively small incremental expansion is A relatively small incremental expansion is adequately informed by the preceding adequately informed by the preceding decision, without extensive commitments to decision, without extensive commitments to future decisions.future decisions.

Incremental Steps

In CADET, the increment is about 10-20 In CADET, the increment is about 10-20 activities, about 5% of the activities in a activities, about 5% of the activities in a complete plan. complete plan.

Incremental expansion process focuses on Incremental expansion process focuses on the most significant/constrained tasks first.the most significant/constrained tasks first.

It also helps user to understand how the It also helps user to understand how the process unfolds and allows the user to process unfolds and allows the user to intervene it if desired.intervene it if desired.

Other Considerations

A version of Dijkstra routing algorithm to search for A version of Dijkstra routing algorithm to search for suitable routes.suitable routes.

Special algorithms calibrated by military Special algorithms calibrated by military professionals to estimate attrition and consumption.professionals to estimate attrition and consumption.

No backtracking is used: No backtracking is used: - Minimize the complexity.- Minimize the complexity. - Conflicts can better be resolved when the user can - Conflicts can better be resolved when the user can

see the whole picture.see the whole picture. - Conflicts often points to a need to modify original - Conflicts often points to a need to modify original

COA.COA.

Planning Against a Dynamic Enemy The commander and staff specify the likely action The commander and staff specify the likely action

of the enemy.of the enemy. CADET proceeds in parallel both the friendly and CADET proceeds in parallel both the friendly and

enemy actions.enemy actions. CADET infers possible reactions and CADET infers possible reactions and

counteractions using HTN with both resource and counteractions using HTN with both resource and time constraints.time constraints.

Action-Reaction-Counteraction (ARC) heuristic is Action-Reaction-Counteraction (ARC) heuristic is used.used.

3-ply search3-ply search No alternative actions (only one)No alternative actions (only one) No backtrackingNo backtracking Includes enough uncertainty and the solutions are Includes enough uncertainty and the solutions are

often complex and non-obvious to the user.often complex and non-obvious to the user.

Knowledge Representation

Knowledge base is a hierarchy of classes of Knowledge base is a hierarchy of classes of activities, including procedures to compute activities, including procedures to compute conditions, generate sub-activities depending on conditions, generate sub-activities depending on many factors, adding temporal constraints, etc. many factors, adding temporal constraints, etc.

If there are multiple rules with a procedure, they If there are multiple rules with a procedure, they are explicitly ordered.are explicitly ordered.

Most rules are used for expansion of activities, Most rules are used for expansion of activities, and these rules are parameterized.and these rules are parameterized.

Experimental Evaluation I

Test set: 5 scenarios of Brigade-sized offensive Test set: 5 scenarios of Brigade-sized offensive operations.operations.

9 judges (mostly active duty officers).9 judges (mostly active duty officers). Typical time by human: 4-5 officer, 3-4 hours, Typical time by human: 4-5 officer, 3-4 hours,

about 16 person-hours.about 16 person-hours. CADET-Assisted: 2 minutes of CADET execution CADET-Assisted: 2 minutes of CADET execution

and 20 minutes of review and post-editing, about and 20 minutes of review and post-editing, about 0.4 person hour.0.4 person hour.

Score from 0-10, with 5 being the typical quality Score from 0-10, with 5 being the typical quality found in today’s practice.found in today’s practice.

Result

Result

No bias against computerized-looking No bias against computerized-looking products.products.

Some judges strongly dislike the larger and Some judges strongly dislike the larger and more detailed synchronization matrices by more detailed synchronization matrices by CADET.CADET.

CADET helps to produce complex planning CADET helps to produce complex planning products dramatically faster without loss of products dramatically faster without loss of quality.quality.

Experimental Evaluation II

CADET integrated in a suite of decision aids for a CADET integrated in a suite of decision aids for a complete cycle of Army Brigade decision making.complete cycle of Army Brigade decision making.

Two teams (8 officers each): one uses the Two teams (8 officers each): one uses the traditional manual method, and the other has the traditional manual method, and the other has the support of decision aids.support of decision aids.

Purpose: check if the tool affects the ingenuity of Purpose: check if the tool affects the ingenuity of the plan, or makes it predictable to enemy.the plan, or makes it predictable to enemy.

Observations

Quality is comparable, and the computed-Quality is comparable, and the computed-aided team finished much faster.aided team finished much faster.

No evidence that the decision aids No evidence that the decision aids encourage a cookbook approach.encourage a cookbook approach.

Because the planner can explorer many Because the planner can explorer many COA rapidly, including those COA rapidly, including those unconventional, there is a potential for more unconventional, there is a potential for more ingenuity, creativity and adaptivity.ingenuity, creativity and adaptivity.

Lessons Learned

Easy user operation helps to increase the Easy user operation helps to increase the probability of user acceptance and to reduce probability of user acceptance and to reduce development risks and training requirements.development risks and training requirements.

For complex domains, it is prudent for developers For complex domains, it is prudent for developers to use less complicated algorithms.to use less complicated algorithms.

The Action-Reaction-Counteraction (ARC) The Action-Reaction-Counteraction (ARC) heuristic can be a practical and robust technique heuristic can be a practical and robust technique for adversarial considerations.for adversarial considerations.

Future Directions

Support collaborations dispersed over the Support collaborations dispersed over the battlefield.battlefield.

More effective human-machine interface.More effective human-machine interface. Make CADET-generated synchronization Make CADET-generated synchronization

matrix easier to comprehend.matrix easier to comprehend. The capacity of continuous re-planning The capacity of continuous re-planning

during execution.during execution.