BUILD BRIGHT UNIVERSITY

11.1 PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT

MSc. Veyanet Seng

PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT

ផែ�នការគឺជាការ កំណត់គោ�លគោ និងវធីិសាស្រ�្តនៃនគោ�លគោ ដើ�ម្ប�ដើ�យប្តិបត្តិតាមគន្លងផែលបានកំណត់

សំដើរចដើជាគជ័យដើ"ទ�បញ្ចប់។

ការកំណត់គោ�លគោត្រតវូផែតមានភាពជាក់លាក់ពិតត្របាក�្កដើល�បទដ្ឋា/ នត្រតឹមត្រតវូដើ1�យមានទំនាក់ទំនងច្បាស់លាស់ ព��្កមួយដើ5�្កមួយដើទ6ត ឬព�ំណាក់កាលមួយដើ5ំណាក់កាលមួយដើទ6ត។

ផែ�នការមានទំរង់ជា �្លូវការ និងមិន�្លូវការ

Decide how to approach and plan the risk management activities for the project.

Describe how riskProcesses will beStructured and performed

ដើ9លបំណងរមួនៃនការគ្ប់គ្ងហានិភ័យដើ9លបំណងរមួនៃនការគ្ប់គ្ងហានិភ័យ

គឺសំដើ=ដើ5ដើល�ការធានាដើ�យមានការសំដើរចចិត្តមួយ៏ត្រតឹមត្រតវូក្នងុការដើCD�អD�មួយដើ�យត្រសបដើ5តាមដើពលដើវលាជាក់លាក់និងផែលមានត្របភពច្បាស់លាស់នៃនភាពមិនត្រតឹមត្រតវូផែល�ចមានឥទ្ធិពលមកដើល�ភាពដើជាគជ័យនៃនគំដើHងបាន។

តាមរយៈត្រទឹស្ដ�នៃនការត្រគប់ត្រគងគំដើHងការត្រគប់ត្រគងហានិភ័យដើ�ម្ប�ផែសDងរក៖

អត្តសញ្ញាM ណការពារទប់ទល់បង្រ្កាPQ បកាត់បន្ថយចំនុចអវជិ្ជមាននិងបដើងQ�នឱកាសនានាដើ�យខ្ពស់បំ�ុតនិងដើ�យដើចញជាលទ្ធ�លវជិ្ជមានដើ"ក្នងុន័យជាត្របដើYជន៍ល់គំដើHងនិងអ្នកពាក់ព័ន្ធជាដើត្រច�នដើទ6ត។

ការគ្ប់គ្ងដើនះ គឺជាការគ្ប់គ្ងជាប្ព័ន្ធ ផែល�ច�្ដល់លទ្ធភាព ក្នងុការដើគចដើចញ ត្រតតួត្រតា កាត់បន្ថយ ឬ កំចាត់ដើចាល តាមរយៈនៃន

តកQនុដើលាម ភាពវាងនៃវ និងយុទ្ធសាត្រស្តឯកសារ។

III. PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT III. PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSPROCESS

Initiating Planning Executing Monitoring &

Controlling

Closing

4.1 Develop Project Charter

4.2 Develop Project Management Plan

4.3 Direct and Manage Project Execution

4.4 Monitor and Control Project Work

4.6 Close Project or Phase

10.1 Identify Stakeholders

5.1 Collect Requirements5.2 Define Scope5.3 Create Work Breakdown structure6.1 Define 6.2 Sequence Activities6.3 Estimate Activity Resource6.4 Estimate Activity Durations6.5 Develop Schedule7.1 Estimate Costs7.2 Determine Budget8.1 Plan Quality9.1 Develop HR plan10.2 Plan Communications11.1 Plan Risk Management11.2 Identify Risks11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis11.5 Plan Risk Responses

8.2 Perform Quality Assurance9.2 Acquire Project Team9.3 Develop Project Team10.3 Distribute Information10.4 Manage Stakeholder Expectations

4.5 Perform Integrated Change Control5.4 Verify Scope5.5 Control Scope6.6 Control Schedule7.3 Control Costs8.3 Perform Quality Control9.4 Manage Project Team10.5 Report Performance11.6 Monitor and Control Risks

Processes required to effectively identify, analyze, respond and control project risks.

Processes:11.1 Plan Risk Management – Planning11.2 Identify Risks – Planning11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis – Planning11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis –

Planning11.5 Plan Risk Responses – Planning11.6 Monitor and Control Risks – Monitoring and

Control

11.1 PLAN RISK MANAGEMENTINPUTS – TOOLS & TECHNIQUES - OUTPUTS

INPUTS: 1. PROJECT SCOPEការគ្ប់គ្ងគំដើHង៖

Scope: Project size, goals, requirementsResources: People, equipment, materialTime: Task durations, dependencies, critical

pathMoney: Costs, contingencies, profit

The project scope: គឺជានិយមន័យព�អD�ផែលគំដើHងបាន គិតសាa នព� ប្តិបត្តិការ និង ថវកិា ( នៃនដើពលដើវលា និង លុយ)

ផែលត្រតវូបានបដើងQ�តដើc�ងដើ�ម្ប�សំដើរចដើ9លបំណងដើ�យទទួលបានដើជាគជ័យ។

INPUTS Scope Creep is the piling up of small changes

that by themselves are manageable, but in aggregate are significant.

Scope refers to all the work involved in creating the products of the project and the processes used to create them. It defines what is or is not to be done.

The project team and stakeholders must have the same understanding of what products will be produced as a result of a project and how they’ll be produced.

Scope Statement: This is the first place you’ll start looking when identifying risks and should be considered when determining the process you’ll use to evaluate risks.

Project Scope: ការPរផែលចាបំាច់ ក្នងុប្តិបត្តិការ បញ្ជូន �លិត�ល ដើសវាកមa និងលទ្ធ�លជាមួយនឹងមុខP

រនិងទ្ង់ត្រeយជាក់លាក់។ ជាទំរង់និងតួនាទ�ផែលចាបំាច់ក្នងុការ9ទំ្ល់ំដើណាះត្រសាយ។

Product Scope:ជាទំរង់និងមុខPរដើ�fងៗផែលបPh ញព�ចរកិលក្ខណៈរបស់�លិត�លដើសវាកមaនិងលទ្ធ�ល

You can not effectively manage the resources, time and money in a project unless you actively manage the project scope.

When you have the project scope clearly identified and associated to the timeline and budget, you can begin to manage the project resources. These include the people, equipment, and material needed to complete the project.

Corrective actions will require a project change request and must be approved by the Project Sponsor before it can become within the scope of the project.

INPUTS: 2. COST MANAGEMENT PLAN The Cost Management Plan clearly defines how

the costs on a project will be managed throughout the project’s lifecycle.

There are following processes which are part of Project Cost Management.

Estimate Costs Determine Budget Measure Costs Report Costs �Control Costs�

THE COST MANAGEMENT PLAN: Identifies who is responsible for

managing costs

Identifies who has the authority to approve changes to the project or its budget

How cost performance is quantitatively measured and reported upon

Report formats, frequency and to whom they are presented

ការទទួលខុសត្រតវូនៃនអ្នកគ្ប់គ្ងចំដើពាះថ្តួនាទី កាតព្វកិច្ច

Project Manager ManageReportPresentReview Responsible

• អ្នកគ្ប់គ្ង ត្រតវុបPh ញ និងពិនិត្យដើc�ងវញិនូវថ្នៃនគំដើHងសំHប់ផែខបនាl ប់។• Performancewillbemeasuredusingearnedvalue.

គណនាថ្ចំណាយ�របុគោស្រកាយការព្យាករណ៍

Estimate At Completion (EAC) refers to the estimated total cost of the project at completion.

BAC refers to Budget at Completion. It is related to EAC.

EAC > BAC : ការចំណាយដើល�សផែ�នការថវកិាEAC = BAC : ការចំណាយត្រសបតាមផែ�នការថវកិាEAC < BAC : ការចំណាយតិចជាងផែ�នការថវកិា

EXAMPLE Your project has a budget of $10,000

and is expect to last for 1 year, with the work and budget spread evenly across all months. Right now CPI is 0.8. What is Estimate at Completion (EAC) in this case?

1.$12,5002.$10,0003.2.54.3.0

INDEPENDENT ESTIMATE AT COMPLETION (IEAC) The IEAC is a metric to project total cost

using the performance to date to project overall performance. This can be compared to the EAC, which is the manager's projection.

គណនាថ្ចំណាយផែ/លស្រតវូបំគោពញ ETC refers to Estimate to Completion. It is

defined as

ETC = EAC – AC = 360,000-120,000=240,000(៨ផែ3គោទ4ត)

ETC ទឹកត្របាប់ត្រតវូដើត្រប�ដើ"ផែខបនាl ប់(៨ផែខដើទ6ត)

�ន្ទ�្សន៍ថ្គោ/ីម CPI refers to Cost Performance Index. It is defined

as

CPI = EV/AC If, CPI < 1, this means that the project is over budget. If, CPI = 1, this means that the project is perfectly on budget. If, CPI > 1, this means that the project is under budget.

TO-COMPLETE PERFORMANCE INDEX (TCPI) The TCPI provides a projection of the

anticipated performance required to achieve either the BAC or the EAC. TCPI indicates the future required cost efficiency needed to achieve a target BAC (Budget At Complete) or EAC (Estimate At Complete). Any significant difference between CPI, the cost performance to date, and the TCPI, the cost performance needed to meet the BAC or the EAC, should be accounted for by management in their forecast of the final cost.

ត្របសិទ្ធភាពនៃថ្លដើ�មTCPIBAC=(240,000-80,000)/(240,000-

120,000)=1.33 ដើល�សផែ�នការ

TO-COMPLETE PERFORMANCE INDEX (TCPI)

For the TCPI based on BAC (describing the performance required to meet the original BAC budgeted total):

or for the TCPI based on EAC (describing the performance required to meet a new, revised budget total EAC):

Earned Value (EV) is the physical work completed to date and the authorized budget for that. It is also referred as BCWP (Budgeted Cost of Work Performed).

CV = EV – AC ឬTC = CV + FC

Earn Value = Total Cost x Percentage of work actually completed

If CV > 0, the project is earning more value than planned thus it’s under budget.

If CV = 0, then the project is perfectly on budget. If CV < 0, the project is earning less value than

planned thus it’s over budget

EXAMPLE 1: THE COST VARIANCE Your project has a budget of $240,000BAC

and is expect to last for 1 year, with the work and budget spread evenly across all months. The project is now in the fourth month, the work is on schedule, but you have already spent $120,000 AC of the project budget. What is your COST Variance in this case?

CV = EV – AC but EV=(BAC*4)/12=(240,000*4)/12=80,000 CV=80,000-120,000=-40,000 CPI=EV/BAC= 80,000/120,000=0.66 EAC=240,000/0.66=360,000(តនៃម្លស្របផែ:ល)

គណនាថ្ចំណាយពិត

Actual Cost (AC) is the actual amount of money spent so far. It is also referred as ACWP (Actual Cost of Work Performed).

AC = EV – CVAC: Actual Cost (ថ្ចំណាយពិត)CV: Cost Variance (ថ្ចំណាយប្ត្របលួ)FC: Fixed Cost (ថ្ចំណាយដើថរ)

គណនាថ្ផែ/លស្រតវូបំគោពញប្ស្របលួ VAC refers to Variance At Completion. It is

defined as

VAC = BAC – EAC = 240,000-360,000=-120,000

ថវកិារខDះ If, VAC = 0, ជាតំនៃលផែលស្បតាមផែ�នការថវកិា If VAC < 0 ជាតំនៃលផែលដើត្រប�ត្របាស់ដើល�សផែ�នការថវកិា If VAC > 0 ជាតំនៃលផែលដើត្រប�ត្របាស់តិចជាងផែ�នការថវកិា

EXAMPLE 2: VARIANCE AT COMPLETION (VAC)

Your project has a budget of $10,000 and is expect to last for 1 year, with the work and budget spread evenly across all months. Right now CPI is 0.8. What is Variance at Completion in this case?

1.-$2,500 ដើដ្ឋាយEAC=BAC/CPI2.$10,000 10,00/0.8=12,5003.$12,500 នាដំើ�យVAC=10,000-12,500=-2,5004.$12,000

REPORTS OF CPIសនlសfន៏នៃថ្លដើ�ម If the Cost Performance Index has a variance

of between 0.1 and 0.2 the Project Manager must report the reason for the exception.

If the CPI has a variance of greater than 0.2 the Project Manager must report the reason for the exception and provide management a detailed corrective plan to bring the projects performance back to acceptable levels.

Performance Measure Yellow Red

Cost Performance Index (CPI)

Between 0.9 and 0.8 or Between 1.1 and 1.2

Less Than 0.8 or Greater than 1.2

INPUTS: 3. SCHEDULE MANAGEMENT PLAN How schedule contingencies will be reported

and assessed.

Planned Value (PV) refers to what the project should be worth at this point in the schedule. It is also referred as BCWS (Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled).

SV refers to Schedule Variance. It is defined as

SV = EV - PV If,, SV = 0, then the project is perfectly on

schedule. If, SV > 0, the project is earning more value than

planned thus it’s ahead of schedule. If, SV < 0, the project is earning less value than

planned thus it’s behind schedule or cost.

Note: do more, get more

EXAMPLE 3: SCHEDULE VARIANCE You are a project manager of a project. Till

today you have actually completed $34,000(EV) of work, but based on the cost plan it should be $50,000(PV). What is percentage Schedule Variance (SV) in this case?

1.-32% SV% =(EV-PV)/PV2.-16% =(34,000-50,000)/50,0003.32% =-32%4.10%

SPI: measures the progress achieved against that which was planned.

SPI: Schedule Performance Index. It is defined as

សនlសfSPI = EV/PV = 34,000/50,000 =0.68

If, EV = PV the value of the SPI is 1. If EV < PV the value is less than 1, which means

the project is behind scheduleដើCD�មិនបានរមិឺនល់ខlង់ផែលត្រគងទុក.

If EV > PV the value of the SPI is greater than 1, which means the project is ahead of schedule.

A well performing project should have its SPI as close to 1 as possible, or maybe even a little under 1.

REPORTS OF SPI If the Schedule Performance has a variance of

between 0.1 and 0.2 the Project Manager must report the reason for the exception.

If the SPI has a variance of greater than 0.2 the Project Manager must report the reason for the exception and provide management a detailed corrective plan to bring the projects performance back to acceptable levels.

Performance Measure Yellow Red

Schedule Performance Index (SPI)

Between 0.9 and 0.8 or Between 1.1 and 1.2

Less Than 0.8 or Greater than 1.2

REPORTING FORMATReporting for cost management:

included in the monthly project status report.

Labeled “Cost Management”contain the Earned Value Metrics

identified in the previous section.All cost variances outside of the

thresholds identifiedReport any corrective actions project cost overruns will be

identified and tracked in this report.

PROJECT BUDGET

The budget for this project is detailed below. Costs for this project are presented in various categories...

Fixed Costs: $xxx,xxx.xx Material Costs $xxx,xxx.xx Contractor Costs $xxx,xxx.xx Total Project Cost $xxx,xxx.xx

Management Reserve $x,xxx.xx

EXAMPLE You are a project manager of a

construction company. You want to manage the variance between what was planned and what actually occurred. Which of the following methodology you should use?

1.Earned Value Management (EVM)√2.Earned Value (EV)3.Planned Value4.Accounting

ឯកសារដើYងឯកសារដើYង AS/NZS 4360. Risk Management. Standards

Australia, Sydney, NSW, 1997. Bob Xourafas, P. Eng, Project Management

Fundamentals, Proprietary, 2009. www.ProjectManagementDocs.com

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