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Bryan A. BlackBryan A. Black
Hatfield Marine Science CenterHatfield Marine Science CenterOregon State UniversityOregon State UniversityNewport, OregonNewport, Oregon
Rockfish, tree rings, and climate-driven linkages Rockfish, tree rings, and climate-driven linkages between marine and terrestrial ecosystemsbetween marine and terrestrial ecosystems
Temporal and spatial variability of growth
Tree rings most familiar example-effects of competition-effects of site factors, pollutants-effects of climate-reconstructions (thousands of yrs.!)
VERY VERSATILE
Importance of IncrementsImportance of Increments
Many organisms form annual increments-mollusks, corals, sponges, dinosaurs
Dendrochronology applied to other organismsDendrochronology applied to other organisms
and… FISH
In fish, growth increments formed in:-vertebrae, various bones-fin rays-scales-otoliths
Growth increment formation- opaque zone: fast growth, low protein- translucent zone: slow growth, high protein
OtolithsOtoliths
1939: year of1939: year ofbirthbirth
1989: year of1989: year ofcapturecapture
direction of growth
direction of growth
Candidate for dendrochronology techniques?-no resorption problems-some fish can get old!
ex. 100 yr old yelloweye rockfish-increments appear to be annual
Should be long enough time series if incrementsare clear
Dendrochronology applied to other organismsDendrochronology applied to other organisms
The physical environment affects otolith ring width-induces synchronous growth patterns-”bar codes” should match among otoliths-if not: error likely
Method of accurately dating each growth increment
Dendrochronology (tree-ring analysis): crossdating
Required: Synchronous GrowthRequired: Synchronous Growth
Matching growth “bar codes”
Required: Synchronous GrowthRequired: Synchronous Growth
Tree 1
Tree 2
Tree 3
Trees cored in year 2000Trees cored in year 20002000
2000
19951995
19901990
1985
1985
1980
1980
most recent increment(formed in 2000)
to tree center
Photo credit: H.D. Grissino-Mayer, The Ultimate Tree-Ring Web Pages
Crossdating in TreesCrossdating in Trees
18371837narrownarrowyearyear
1806 1806 narrownarrowyearyear
18161816widewideyearyear
18301830widewideyearyear
direction of growthdirection of growth
bark
bark
Sebastes diploproa, splitnose rockfish
Photo credit:Lifted from M. Love’s webpagePhoto credit:Lifted from M. Love’s webpage
Target Species: Splitnose RockfishTarget Species: Splitnose Rockfish
15 clear splitnose otolithscollected in 1989 NMFS surveyvariety of ages (31 to 64 yrs)thin sectioned
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.1
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
year
rin
g w
idth
(m
m)
Measurements of splitnose rockfish
Synchronous GrowthSynchronous Growth
19361936 19581958 19701970 19831983
Statistically, how do we prove it?-correlate all otoliths with one another-low correlation = potential errors
but we only want the climate signal
must remove effects of:-age, vigor, artifacts of preparation
isolate climate signal via DETRENDING
CrossdatingCrossdating
DetrendingDetrending
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
year
rin
g w
idth
(m
m)
DetrendingDetrending
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
year
rin
g w
idth
(m
m)ring width
measurements,splines
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
year
rin
g w
idth
in
de
xdetrended,
mean = 1
all splitnose residual chronologiesN = 15
DetrendingDetrending
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
year
rin
g w
idth
in
de
x
Correlate each otolith with sample-wide averages
CrossdatingCrossdating
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
year
rin
g w
idth
in
de
x (
sta
ck
ed
)
Step 1: select the first otolith time series
CrossdatingCrossdating
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
year
rin
g w
idth
in
de
x (
sta
ck
ed
)
selected seriesselected series
Step 2: average remaining (14) samples
CrossdatingCrossdating
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
year
rin
g w
idth
in
de
x (
sta
ck
ed
)
selected seriesselected series
rem
ain
ing
14 s
erie
sre
mai
nin
g 14
ser
ies
Step 3: correlate single series with average of others
CrossdatingCrossdating
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
year
ring
wid
th in
dex
(sta
cked
)
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
year
rin
g w
idth
in
de
x
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
year
rin
g w
idth
in
de
x
average of remaining 14 seriesaverage of remaining 14 series
r = 0.62p < 0.001
selected seriesselected series
If we overlooked 1983 (combined 1984 and 1983)
CrossdatingCrossdating
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
year
ring
wid
th in
dex
(sta
cked
)
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
year
rin
g w
idth
in
de
x
average of remaining 14 seriesaverage of remaining 14 series
r = -0.11
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
year
rin
g w
idth
in
de
x selected seriesselected serieswith errorwith error
Step 4: repeat for each of the series
CrossdatingCrossdating
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
year
rin
g w
idth
in
de
x (
sta
ck
ed
)
selected seriesselected seriesr = 0.58r = 0.58
Step 4: repeat for each of the series
CrossdatingCrossdating
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
year
rin
g w
idth
in
de
x (
sta
ck
ed
) selected seriesselected seriesr = 0.64r = 0.64
Step 4: repeat for each of the series
CrossdatingCrossdating
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
year
rin
g w
idth
in
de
x (
sta
ck
ed
)
selected seriesselected seriesr = 0.45r = 0.45
CrossdatingCrossdating
sample 1 r = 0.62r = 0.62
sample 2 r = 0.58r = 0.58
sample 3 r = 0.64r = 0.64
sample 4 r = 0.45r = 0.45
sample 5 r = 0.49r = 0.49
sample 6 r = 0.64r = 0.64
sample 7 r = 0.44r = 0.44
sample 8 r = 0.60r = 0.60
sample 9 r = 0.72r = 0.72
sample 10 r = 0.61r = 0.61
sample 11 r = 0.71r = 0.71
sample 12 r = 0.61r = 0.61
sample 13 r = 0.21r = 0.21
sample 14 r = 0.17r = 0.17
sample 15 r = 0.43r = 0.43
averageaverage r = 0.528r = 0.528
CrossdatingCrossdating
sample 1 r = 0.62r = 0.62
sample 2 r = 0.58r = 0.58
sample 3 r = 0.64r = 0.64
sample 4 r = 0.45r = 0.45
sample 5 r = 0.49r = 0.49
sample 6 r = 0.64r = 0.64
sample 7 r = 0.44r = 0.44
sample 8 r = 0.60r = 0.60
sample 9 r = 0.72r = 0.72
sample 10 r = 0.61r = 0.61
sample 11 r = 0.71r = 0.71
sample 12 r = 0.61r = 0.61
sample 13 r = 0.21 potential problemsr = 0.21 potential problems
sample 14 r = 0.17 potential problemsr = 0.17 potential problems
sample 15 r = 0.43r = 0.43
averageaverage r = 0.528r = 0.528
Step 5: check thenremeasure, drop, orkeep problematic series
context:eastern forestshemlock, maplespruce, beech: ISC = 0.5 – 0.6
CrossdatingCrossdating
sample 1 r = 0.62 r = 0.62 r = 0.69r = 0.69
sample 2 r = 0.58 r = 0.58 r = 0.59r = 0.59
sample 3 r = 0.64 r = 0.64 r = 0.66r = 0.66
sample 4 r = 0.45 r = 0.45 r = 0.45r = 0.45
sample 5 r = 0.49 r = 0.49 r = 0.50r = 0.50
sample 6 r = 0.64 r = 0.64 r = 0.62r = 0.62
sample 7 r = 0.44 r = 0.44 r = 0.45r = 0.45
sample 8 r = 0.60 r = 0.60 r = 0.54r = 0.54
sample 9 r = 0.72 r = 0.72 r = 0.72r = 0.72
sample 10 r = 0.61 r = 0.61 r = 0.63r = 0.63
sample 11 r = 0.71 r = 0.71 r = 0.70r = 0.70
sample 12 r = 0.61 r = 0.61 r = 0.61r = 0.61
sample 13 r = 0.21 r = 0.21 r = 0.42r = 0.42
sample 14 r = 0.17 r = 0.17 r = 0.36r = 0.36
sample 15 r = 0.43 r = 0.43 r = 0.43r = 0.43
averageaverage r = 0.528 r = 0.528 r = 0.545r = 0.545
Spatial considerationsSpatial considerations
Initial data set included fish from approx. 36-40 degrees latitude
I attempted to add more otoliths
Twelve out of 20 didn’t work!
Why?
Spatial considerationsSpatial considerations
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50
Latitude (degrees)
Inte
rse
rie
s c
orr
ela
tio
n
new otolithoriginal otolith
Splitnose chronology: 48 otolithsSplitnose chronology: 48 otoliths
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
year
rin
g w
idth
in
dex
valid: 36 to 40 degrees latitudevalid: 36 to 40 degrees latitude
Age ValidationAge Validation
1989: year of1989: year ofcapturecapture
1939: year of1939: year ofbirthbirth
1983: El Nino1983: El Nino
1958: El Nino1958: El Nino
all growth increments correctly datedex. 51 year old fish
Splitnose chronology: 48 otolithsSplitnose chronology: 48 otoliths
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
year
rin
g w
idth
in
dex
valid: 36 to 40 degrees latitudevalid: 36 to 40 degrees latitude
El NiEl Niñño / La Niñao / La Niña
Figure credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Departures from normal….
El Niño La Niña
Pacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal Oscillation
Figure credit: Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean: U. Washington
warm phase cool phase
UpwellingUpwelling
Upwelling events: deep, cold, nutrient-rich watervery productive!
Figure credit: D. Reed and Pacific Marine Environmental Lab
Environmental indicesEnvironmental indices
High values = COOL watersUpwelling IndexNorthern Oscillation Index (El Niño)
High values = WARM watersSea Surface TemperaturesPacific Decadal Oscillation
USE MONTHLY AVERAGES
10
11
12
13
14
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
year
tem
pe
ra
ture
( C
)
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
year
rin
g w
idth
in
de
x
Effects of environmentEffects of environment
splitnose master chronologysplitnose master chronology
Feb average SSTFeb average SST
r = -0.60; p < 0.001r = -0.60; p < 0.001
ring
wid
th in
de
xte
mp
era
ture
( C
)
Effects of environmentEffects of environment
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2M
AY
(L)
JUN
(L)
JUL
(L)
AU
G(L
)
SE
P(L
)
OC
T(L
)
NO
V(L
)
DE
C(L
)
JAN
FE
B
MA
R
AP
R
MA
Y
JUN
JUL
AU
G
SE
P
month
corr
elat
ion
co
effi
cien
t
Sea surface temperatureSea surface temperature
**
**
**
** *
** p < 0.01* p < 0.05
Effects of environmentEffects of environment
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
MA
Y(L
)
JUN
(L)
JUL(
L)
AU
G(L
)
SE
P(L
)
OC
T(L
)
NO
V(L
)
DE
C(L
)
JAN
FE
B
MA
R
AP
R
MA
Y
JUN
JUL
AU
G
SE
P
month
corr
elat
ion
co
effi
cien
t
upwelling index
Northern Oscillation Index
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
sea surface temperature
**
**
**
** *
*** *
***
** **
**
**
** * **
**
** p < 0.01* p < 0.05
Spatial components of growth–environment relationships?Spatial components of growth–environment relationships?
February sea surface temperatures 1950:1994
2 degree x 2 degree cells
correlate with splitnose chronology
Spatial components of growth–environment relationships?Spatial components of growth–environment relationships?
Otolith and tree ring chronologies comparable
Possible sites: tree line in Coast Mountains-strong maritime influence-harsh conditions
Noble fir on Marys Peak
Terrestrial vs. marine growth patternsTerrestrial vs. marine growth patterns
Noble fir measurementsNoble fir measurements
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
year
rin
g w
idth
(m
m)
24 trees24 trees47 radii;47 radii;
crossdating check: ISC of 0.7; all trees significant
Noble fir chronologyNoble fir chronology
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
year
rin
g w
idth
in
de
x
noble fir master chronologynoble fir master chronology
Effects of environment: temperatureEffects of environment: temperature
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020year
de
gre
es
( C
)
JanT
FebT
MarT
AprT
MayT
JunT
JulT
AugT
SepT
OctT
NovT
DecT
Effects of environment: TERRESTRIALEffects of environment: TERRESTRIAL
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
JUL(
L)
AU
G(L
)
SE
P(L
)
OC
T(L
)
NO
V(L
)
DE
C(L
)
JAN
FE
B
MA
R
AP
R
MA
Y
JUN
JUL
AU
G
SE
P
OC
T
NO
V
DE
C
corr
elat
ion
co
effi
cien
t
temperaturetemperatureprecipitationprecipitation
**
**
**
* *
*
*
*
** p < 0.01* p < 0.05
Effects of environment: MARINEEffects of environment: MARINE
JUL(
L)
AU
G(L
)
SE
P(L
)
OC
T(L
)
NO
V(L
)
DE
C(L
)
JAN
FE
B
MA
R
AP
R
MA
Y
JUN
JUL
AU
G
SE
P
OC
T
NO
V
DE
C
corr
elat
ion
co
effi
cien
t
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4Sea Surface TemperatureSea Surface TemperaturePacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal OscillationNorthern Oscillation IndexNorthern Oscillation Index
*
*
**
** p < 0.01* p < 0.05
Do rockfish and noble fir correlate?
The BIG questionThe BIG question
Not at all! Not at all! r = 0.05r = 0.05
NOAA ITRDB
tree chronologies throughout OR, WA, CA
correlations with rockfish chronology?
Other tree ring chronologiesOther tree ring chronologies
Mountain hemlock vs. rockfishMountain hemlock vs. rockfish
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
year
no
rmal
ized
rin
g w
idth
ind
ex
splitnose rockfish
mountain hemlcok(on Mt. Rainier)
Mountain hemlock: terrestrial corr.Mountain hemlock: terrestrial corr.
JUL(
L)
AU
G(L
)
SE
P(L
)
OC
T(L
)
NO
V(L
)
DE
C(L
)
JAN
FE
B
MA
R
AP
R
MA
Y
JUN
JUL
AU
G
SE
P
OC
T
NO
V
DE
C
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
corr
elat
ion
co
effi
cien
t
temperaturetemperatureprecipitationprecipitation
** p < 0.01* p < 0.05
****
**
**
**
Mountain hemlock: marine corr.Mountain hemlock: marine corr.
JUL(
L)
AU
G(L
)
SE
P(L
)
OC
T(L
)
NO
V(L
)
DE
C(L
)
JAN
FE
B
MA
R
AP
R
MA
Y
JUN
JUL
AU
G
SE
P
OC
T
NO
V
DE
C
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
corr
elat
ion
co
effi
cien
t
Sea Surface TemperatureSea Surface TemperaturePacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal OscillationNorthern Oscillation IndexNorthern Oscillation Index
** p < 0.01* p < 0.05
** ****
**
** *** *
**
**
****
*
*
**
*
*
**
corr
elat
ion
co
effi
cien
t
-0.3-0.2-0.1
00.10.20.30.4
CascadesCascadeshemlockhemlock
JUL(
L)
AU
G(L
)
SE
P(L
)
OC
T(L
)
NO
V(L
)
DE
C(L
)
JAN
FE
B
MA
R
AP
R
MA
Y
JUN
JUL
AU
G
SE
P
OC
T
NO
V
DE
C
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4 splitnose splitnose rockfishrockfish
Sea Surface TemperatureSea Surface TemperaturePacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal OscillationNorthern Oscillation IndexNorthern Oscillation Index
Correlations comparedCorrelations compared
corr
elat
ion
co
effi
cien
t
-0.3-0.2-0.1
00.10.20.30.4
CascadesCascades
JUL(
L)
AU
G(L
)
SE
P(L
)
OC
T(L
)
NO
V(L
)
DE
C(L
)
JAN
FE
B
MA
R
AP
R
MA
Y
JUN
JUL
AU
G
SE
P
OC
T
NO
V
DE
C
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
Sea Surface TemperatureSea Surface TemperaturePacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal OscillationNorthern Oscillation IndexNorthern Oscillation Index
Marys Marys PeakPeak
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4 splitnose splitnose rockfishrockfish
Rockfish growth reconstruction:Select tree crns. that
-significantly correlate w/ rockfish-extend to 1990-excellent quality throughout
Average tree ring crns together-back to 1880 (20 crns)
Simple linear regression
Trees as Proxy Data for RockfishTrees as Proxy Data for Rockfish
Reconstruction to 1880Reconstruction to 1880
RR22 = 0.44 = 0.44
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
year
rin
g w
idth
in
dex
rockfish chronologyreconstruction
y = -0.4217*tree_ring + 1.4155
Reconstruction to 1600Reconstruction to 1600
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
year
ring
wid
th in
dex
y = -0.37*tree_ring + 1.3683
RR22 = 0.39 = 0.39
Growth increment data: Not limited to trees!
Uses:1) age validation2) effects of environment
Important for management and ecology!
ConclusionsConclusions
strong synchronous growthmax. ages of 100 yrs.river chronometers
Future directions: freshwater musselsFuture directions: freshwater mussels
Ecosystem LinkagesEcosystem Linkages
forestsforeststree ringstree rings
riversriversmussel ringsmussel rings
nearshorenearshoreclam ringsclam rings
continental shelfcontinental shelffish ringsfish rings
Hatfield Marine Science CenterNewport, OR Tues. May 30 to Wed. June 7
Dendro Fieldweek 2006Dendro Fieldweek 2006