Brutal Facts and Big Steps Dr. Scott Ralls, President North Carolina Community College System

Brutal Facts and Big Steps

Dr. Scott Ralls, President

North Carolina Community College System

www.nccommunitycolleges.edu

North Carolina Community Collegeswww.nccommunitycolleges.edu

Fifty-eight Institutions Creating Success for North Carolina

04/19/23 2

Education is Economic Development

Per Capita Income

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

120.00%

1959 1969 1979 1989 1999

Pe

r C

en

tag

e o

f U

S A

ve

rag

e

North Carolina

United States

Changing EconomyChanging Economy

Divergent SkillDistributions

Divergent SkillDistributions

Demographic Shifts

Demographic Shifts



04/19/23 4

5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5

North Carolina Population Pyramids Percent of Total Population: Age and Gender

5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5

0 - 4 5 - 910 - 1415 - 1920 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940 - 4445 - 4950 - 5455 - 5960 - 6465 - 6970 - 7475 - 7980 - 84 85+

20002000 20302030

FemaleMale Male Female



04/19/23 5

Diverging Hourly Wages

Mexico TaiwanSouth Korea

Singapore

1975 1.47 .40 .32 .84

1990 1.58 3.93 3.71 3.78

1999 2.12 5.62 6.71 7.18

Total dollar wage for manufacturing workers Total dollar wage for manufacturing workers in U.S. $in U.S. $



04/19/23 6

Third International Mathematics and Science Study

Percentage of eighth-grade students reaching the advanced benchmark in 2003

Singapore 44% Taiwan 38% South Korea 35% Hong Kong 35% Japan 24% United States 7%



04/19/23 7

China

Increasing scholarships and other student aid from $240 million in 2006 to $2.7 billion in 2008

Plans to expand government spending on education from 2.8% of GDP to 4% by 2010.



04/19/23 8

Share of foreign-born scientists and engineers in U.S.

By degree level: 1990 and 2000



04/19/23 9

Young People Losing Ground:High School Attainment of Younger and Older Adults U.S. and OECD Countries, 2005

Source: Education at a Glance, 2007, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD); prepared by National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (NCHEMS). *Japan data is from 2004.



04/19/23 10

North Carolina High School Pipeline

120,815

99,857

86,184

75,058

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

Ninth Tenth Eleventh Twelfth



04/19/23 11

…at 2-year colleges?

Freshmen Returning for Sophomore Year at 2-Year Colleges (Fall 2001)

55%48%61%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

North Carolina Nation Top States*

* Median of top five states.Source: Source: National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, Measuring Up 2004, http://measuringup.highereducation.org/database.cfm.



04/19/23 12

Brutal Fact #1

The emerging "nontraditional" student and the vanishing African American male student



04/19/23 13

"Traditional" but not normal

"Traditional" = recent high school graduates enrolled as full-time residential students

One out of five undergraduates -- 20% -- in US now "traditional"



04/19/23 14

"Nontraditional" the new normal

"Nontraditional" = older, working, rearing families, commuting, stopping in and out, part-time

Most of 72% national increase in undergrads since 1970 driven by "nontraditional" students

Almost 2 out of 3 -- 64% -- of highly nontraditional students go to community colleges.



04/19/23 15

The Vanishing African American Male Student

African-American males = 16% of NC K-12 public school students

African-American men = 8% of NC Community College System's curriculum headcount (06-07), 16,885 total.

Number of African-American male community college graduates declining in each of past three years as benefits of education rapidly growing.



04/19/23 16

Brutal Fact #2

Facing the consequences of North Carolina's community college completion rates and the costs of remediation



Completion Rates

"Traditional" 23% leave first year 57% complete their

programs

"Non-traditional" 46% leave first year

(48 % in NC) With at least two

risk factors, <15% complete programs



04/19/23 18

North Carolina:Going the wrong way

National community college completion rates improving

North Carolina's worsening, because: Lack of intent to earn a degree Work recruitment prior to graduation Financial pressures Inability to quality for financial aid Lack of academic preparedness



04/19/23 19

How many high school students graduate on time?

Freshmen Graduating On Time with a Regular Diploma (2003)

85%

69% 70%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

North Carolina Nation Top States** Median of top five states.Source: Manhattan Institute, April 2006, Leaving Boys Behind: Public High School Graduation Rates .



Understanding Completion – Achieving the Dream

Full and part-time students Six years after entering (not 150% of

“normal time”) Earned degree or certificate Transferred without award Enrolled in year six with at least 30

college credits



04/19/23 21

Brutal Fact #3

North Carolina's looming work force shortage, the emerging role of immigrants, and the consequences of low college-going rates.



04/19/23 22

Key Labor Source: Immigrants

By 2016, NC population likely up 15% (US just 9%)

Last 10 years, NC foreign-born population grew 272% -- tops in US

Asian -- up 128% Hispanic/ Latino -- up 394%



04/19/23 23

Brutal Fact #4

Balancing rising enrollments, lagging faculty salaries and inadequate equipment funds with expanding needs for graduates



04/19/23 24

2002-2009 Enrollment Increases in NC Community College SystemFull-Time Equivalent Students (FTE)

169,924

180,563

188,610190,750

193,677 195,375

201,171

150,000

160,000

170,000

180,000

190,000

200,000

210,000

02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08est

08-09est



04/19/23 25

Technology Utilization and System Simplification

Effectively utilize existing technologies and simplify procedures, policies, and communications so that colleges may be more nimble, efficient, and accountable.

Essential for staying ahead of changing economy, demographics, skills distributions



04/19/23 26

Name these places

Ten Years Ten Years AgoAgo

TodayTodayDubai

Dubai



04/19/23 27

12 Largest U.S. Companies

1900American Cotton OilAmerican SteelAmerican Sugar Ref.Continental TobaccoFederal SteelGeneral ElectricNational LeadPacific MailPeople’s GasTennessee Coal/IronU.S. Leather

U.S. Rubber

2000General MotorsWal-MartExxonFordGeneral ElectricIBMCitigroupAT&TPhillip MorrisBoeingBankAmericaSBC Communications



University of Phoenix Stadium



04/19/23 29

Axia College at the University of Phoenix http://www.axiacollege.com/how-axia-college-works.asp



04/19/23 30

Four Largest Colleges in U.S.

2002 Miami-Dade Comm.

College54,926

University of Texas (Austin)52,261

The Ohio State University49,676

University of Minnesota48,677

2004 University of Phoenix

115,794 Miami-Dade Comm. College

57,026 The Ohio State University

50,995 University of Minnesota

50,954



04/19/23 31

Enhance economic and workforce development by transforming customized training programs, strengthening technical education, expanding health care programs, and developing strategic partnerships.

Economic and Workforce Development



04/19/23 32

Increase program completion rates and college opportunities for low-income students.

Program Completion and Low-Income Students



Seamless Education Promote seamless education by

collaborating with public schools (to increase college and workplace readiness, reduce the number of high school dropouts, and increase dropout recovery) and with the UNC System (to increase strategic two-plus-two program completion opportunities).



Budgeting, Planning, and Advocacy

Develop long-term budgeting and planning strategies and increase the advocacy and financial support of community colleges throughout North Carolina.



04/19/23 35

Terry Sanford

You will hear some whisperings abroad saying that we have done enough, have moved well and far and rapidly, and so it is time now to slow down, rest, and catch our breath.These whispers come from the fearful and those who have always opposed the accomplishments from which they would now rest. This cannot be and is not the spirit of North Carolina.

Much remains to be done, to provide better educational opportunities for the competition our children will surely face, to encourage broader economic development so everybody will have a better chance to make a better living. Now is the time to move forward. Now is no time to loaf along.

Documents

Brutal Facts and Big Steps Dr. Scott Ralls, President North Carolina Community College System