Brothers or Friends?: Taiwanese Voters’ Perception about the Relationship between the Two Sides of the Taiwan Strait 是兄弟？是朋友？臺灣選民對兩岸關係的想像

FRANK CHENG-SHAN LIU 劉正山ASSOCIATE PROFESSORINSTITUTE OF POLITICAL SCIENCENATIONAL SUN YAT-SEN UNIVERSITY, TAIWAN, ROCCSLIU@MAIL.NSYSU.EDU.TW

YITAN LI 李一潭ASSISTANT PROFESSOR DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE SEATTLE UNIVERSITY, USALIY@SEATTLEU.EDU

Introduction• Central questions• How Taiwanese voters imagine the relationship

with Mainland China and the extent to which these perceptions influence their attitudes toward cross-strait cooperation

• Evolution of Cross-Strait Relations

• Methods and Data

• Preliminary Findings and Analysis

• Conclusion and Discussion

Evolution of Cross-Strait Relations• Economic convergence

• Political divergence• Taiwan’s Democracy

• Generation Politics

• The construction of new Taiwanese identity

• The Taiwan issue• Territoriality/Antiquity

• Identity

• Sunflower Movement

What Matters and How Do We Know?

• National/ethic identification

• Party identification

• Country identification

• Generation politics

• Gender

• Education attainment

• Data and methods

Findings: Descriptive Analysis

• How do you see our relationship with Mainland China, is it more like father and son, brothers, couples, friends, or enemies?您覺得我們和大陸是什麼關係，是父子、兄弟、夫妻、朋友，還是敵人？

• Do you hope that Taiwan and Mainland China become one country?請問您希不希望臺灣與大陸合為一個國家？

Figure1: The Distribution of Imagined Relationships with Mainland China by National Identity

Figure 2: The Distribution of Perceived Relationships with Mainland China by Unification Preferences

Findings: Explanatory Analysis• National/ethnic identification

• Party identification

• Country identification

• Democratic influence

• Generational gap

• Difference in gender and education attainment

Table 1: Factors of the Imagined Relationships with Mainland China

Brothers Friends Enemies

Reg. Coef.

Std. Error

Reg. Coef.

Std. Error

Reg. Coef.

Std. Error

(Intercept) -2.167*** 0.513 1.332** 0.442 -2.255*** 0.628

National/Ethnic Identification (base=Both)

Taiwanese -0.318 0.212 0.086 0.184 0.748* 0.291

Chinese 0.104 0.340 -0.011 0.323 0.179 0.664

Party Identification (base=Non-Partisan)

Support for the Pan-Blue Camp 0.477* 0.227 -0.301 0.209 -0.085 0.344

Support for the Pan-Green Camp -0.251 0.244 -0.076 0.193 0.380 0.235

Counry Identification

Prefer using the country name Taiwan -0.487* 0.221 0.299 0.189 0.397 0.269

Willing to change ROC to Taiwan -0.012 0.079 -0.129 0.067 0.086 0.089

Hope Taiwan and PRC become one country 0.180* 0.082 -0.061 0.076 -0.417** 0.139

Our democracy can change Mainland China 0.161* 0.065 0.022 0.057 -0.191* 0.083

Male 1.111*** 0.183 -0.676*** 0.152 -0.086 0.210

Education 0.040 0.036 -0.066* 0.032 0.010 0.045

Generations (base= 3rd, born 1954~1968)

1st & 2nd (born before 1953) 0.565* 0.240 -0.757** 0.223 0.384 0.321

4th (born 1969~1978) -0.435 0.261 -0.272 0.214 1.080*** 0.300

5th (born 1979~1988) -0.584 0.305 0.039 0.244 0.774* 0.342

6th (born 1989~1993) -0.738* 0.359 -0.439 0.286 1.244** 0.365

Observations 773 773 773

AIC 820.171 1048.966 643.447

Notes: significance level * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001

Brothers Friends Enemies

Reg. Coef.

Std. Error

Reg. Coef.

Std. Error

Reg. Coef.

Std. Error

(Intercept) -2.167*** 0.513 1.332** 0.442 -2.255*** 0.628

National/Ethnic Identification (base=Both)

Taiwanese -0.318 0.212 0.086 0.184 0.748* 0.291

Chinese 0.104 0.340 -0.011 0.323 0.179 0.664

Party Identification (base=Non-Partisan)

Support for the Pan-Blue Camp 0.477* 0.227 -0.301 0.209 -0.085 0.344

Support for the Pan-Green Camp -0.251 0.244 -0.076 0.193 0.380 0.235

Counry Identification

Prefer using the country name Taiwan -0.487* 0.221 0.299 0.189 0.397 0.269

Willing to change ROC to Taiwan -0.012 0.079 -0.129 0.067 0.086 0.089

Hope Taiwan and PRC become one country 0.180* 0.082 -0.061 0.076 -0.417** 0.139

Our democracy can change Mainland China 0.161* 0.065 0.022 0.057 -0.191* 0.083

Male 1.111*** 0.183 -0.676*** 0.152 -0.086 0.210

Education 0.040 0.036 -0.066* 0.032 0.010 0.045

Generations (base= 3rd, born 1954~1968)

1st & 2nd (born before 1953) 0.565* 0.240 -0.757** 0.223 0.384 0.321

4th (born 1969~1978) -0.435 0.261 -0.272 0.214 1.080*** 0.300

5th (born 1979~1988) -0.584 0.305 0.039 0.244 0.774* 0.342

6th (born 1989~1993) -0.738* 0.359 -0.439 0.286 1.244** 0.365

Observations 773 773 773

AIC 820.171 1048.966 643.447

Notes: significance level * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001

Table 1: Factors of the Imagined Relationships with Mainland China

Brothers Friends Enemies

Reg. Coef.

Std. Error

Reg. Coef.

Std. Error

Reg. Coef.

Std. Error

(Intercept) -2.167*** 0.513 1.332** 0.442 -2.255*** 0.628

National/Ethnic Identification (base=Both)

Taiwanese -0.318 0.212 0.086 0.184 0.748* 0.291

Chinese 0.104 0.340 -0.011 0.323 0.179 0.664

Party Identification (base=Non-Partisan)

Support for the Pan-Blue Camp 0.477* 0.227 -0.301 0.209 -0.085 0.344

Support for the Pan-Green Camp -0.251 0.244 -0.076 0.193 0.380 0.235

Counry Identification

Prefer using the country name Taiwan -0.487* 0.221 0.299 0.189 0.397 0.269

Willing to change ROC to Taiwan -0.012 0.079 -0.129 0.067 0.086 0.089

Hope Taiwan and PRC become one country 0.180* 0.082 -0.061 0.076 -0.417** 0.139

Our democracy can change Mainland China 0.161* 0.065 0.022 0.057 -0.191* 0.083

Male 1.111*** 0.183 -0.676*** 0.152 -0.086 0.210

Education 0.040 0.036 -0.066* 0.032 0.010 0.045

Generations (base= 3rd, born 1954~1968)

1st & 2nd (born before 1953) 0.565* 0.240 -0.757** 0.223 0.384 0.321

4th (born 1969~1978) -0.435 0.261 -0.272 0.214 1.080*** 0.300

5th (born 1979~1988) -0.584 0.305 0.039 0.244 0.774* 0.342

6th (born 1989~1993) -0.738* 0.359 -0.439 0.286 1.244** 0.365

Observations 773 773 773

AIC 820.171 1048.966 643.447

Notes: significance level * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001

Brothers Friends Enemies

Reg. Coef.

Std. Error

Reg. Coef.

Std. Error

Reg. Coef.

Std. Error

(Intercept) -2.167*** 0.513 1.332** 0.442 -2.255*** 0.628

National/Ethnic Identification (base=Both)

Taiwanese -0.318 0.212 0.086 0.184 0.748* 0.291

Chinese 0.104 0.340 -0.011 0.323 0.179 0.664

Party Identification (base=Non-Partisan)

Support for the Pan-Blue Camp 0.477* 0.227 -0.301 0.209 -0.085 0.344

Support for the Pan-Green Camp -0.251 0.244 -0.076 0.193 0.380 0.235

Counry Identification

Prefer using the country name Taiwan -0.487* 0.221 0.299 0.189 0.397 0.269

Willing to change ROC to Taiwan -0.012 0.079 -0.129 0.067 0.086 0.089

Hope Taiwan and PRC become one country 0.180* 0.082 -0.061 0.076 -0.417** 0.139

Our democracy can change Mainland China 0.161* 0.065 0.022 0.057 -0.191* 0.083

Male 1.111*** 0.183 -0.676*** 0.152 -0.086 0.210

Education 0.040 0.036 -0.066* 0.032 0.010 0.045

Generations (base= 3rd, born 1954~1968)

1st & 2nd (born before 1953) 0.565* 0.240 -0.757** 0.223 0.384 0.321

4th (born 1969~1978) -0.435 0.261 -0.272 0.214 1.080*** 0.300

5th (born 1979~1988) -0.584 0.305 0.039 0.244 0.774* 0.342

6th (born 1989~1993) -0.738* 0.359 -0.439 0.286 1.244** 0.365

Observations 773 773 773

AIC 820.171 1048.966 643.447

Notes: significance level * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001

Findings: Future Economic Cooperation

• Our government has been negotiating with Mainland China regarding economic cooperation, do you prefer stepping forward bravely or watching steps and slowing down?目前政府正在推動兩岸經貿談判，請問您覺得政府應該更勇敢積極一些，還是小心謹慎一些？

• Do you think that our economic power can keep the cross-Strait status quo? 我們的經濟實力是否足以能維持兩岸的現狀？

• How much do you hope that Mainland China becomes a democracy?請問您希不希望大陸成為民主國家？

Table 2: The Imagined Relationships with Mainland China and Attitudes toward Economic Cooperation (1)

Reg. Coef. Std. Error

(Intercept) 0.807 1.272

Imagined Relationships (base=Couples)

Father-Son -1.641 1.183

Brothers -2.119 1.127

Freidns -2.034 1.121

Enemy -2.408* 1.138

Others -2.035 1.238

National/Ethinic Identification (base=Both)

Taiwanese -0.461* 0.204

Chinese -0.868* 0.363

Support for the Pan-Blue Camp 0.155 0.230

Support for the Pan-Green Camp -0.147 0.230

Prefer using Taiwan to ROC -0.349 0.196

Prefer unification 0.495*** 0.087

Hoping Mainland China become democratic 0.154 0.096

Our democracy can change Mainland China 0.138* 0.068

Keeping economic status quo -0.128 0.074

Male -0.606** 0.182

Education -0.033 0.038

Generations (base= 3rd, born 1954~1968)

1st & 2nd (born before 1953) 0.012 0.270

4th (born 1969~1978) 0.537* 0.251

5th (born 1979~1988) 1.125*** 0.278

6th (born 1989~1993) 0.617 0.341

Observations 674

Notes: significance level * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001

Table 3: Economic Cooperation (2)

Family Friends Enemies

Reg. Coef.

Std. Error

Reg. Coef.

Std. Error

Reg. Coef.

Std. Error

(Intercept) -1.244* 0.631 -1.241 0.642 -1.178 0.631

Family 0.747* 0.377

Friends 0.085 0.178

Enemy -0.405 0.254

National/Ethnic Identification (base=Both)

Taiwanese -0.498* 0.201 -0.508* 0.200 -0.469* 0.202

Chinese -0.896* 0.362 -0.907* 0.363 -0.896* 0.362

Support for the Pan-Blue Camp 0.138 0.228 0.130 0.229 0.137 0.229

Support for the Pan-Green Camp -0.196 0.229 -0.191 0.228 -0.163 0.229

Prefer using Taiwan to ROC -0.344 0.194 -0.352 0.194 -0.325 0.194

Prefer unification 0.502*** 0.087 0.510*** 0.086 0.500*** 0.086

Hoping Mainland China become democratic

0.151 0.095 0.144 0.095 0.151 0.095

Our democracy can change Mainland China

0.133* 0.067 0.130 0.067 0.126 0.067

Keeping economic status quo -0.113 0.073 -0.116 0.073 -0.124 0.073

Male -0.618** 0.178 -0.610** 0.180 -0.624*** 0.178

Education -0.036 0.038 -0.036 0.038 -0.035 0.038

Generations (base= 3rd, born 1954~1968)

1st & 2nd (born before 1953) 0.001 0.266 0.025 0.268 0.027 0.266

4th (born 1969~1978) 0.494* 0.246 0.533* 0.245 0.581* 0.248

5th (born 1979~1988) 1.075*** 0.274 1.107*** 0.273 1.146*** 0.275

6th (born 1989~1993) 0.557 0.336 0.644 0.334 0.696* 0.336

Observations 674 674 674

AIC 829.877 833.690 831.317

Notes: significance level * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001

Table 3: The Imagined Relationships with Mainland China and Attitudes toward Economic Cooperation (2)

Family Friends Enemies

Reg. Coef.

Std. Error

Reg. Coef.

Std. Error

Reg. Coef.

Std. Error

(Intercept) -1.244* 0.631 -1.241 0.642 -1.178 0.631

Family 0.747* 0.377

Friends 0.085 0.178

Enemy -0.405 0.254

National/Ethnic Identification (base=Both)

Taiwanese -0.498* 0.201 -0.508* 0.200 -0.469* 0.202

Chinese -0.896* 0.362 -0.907* 0.363 -0.896* 0.362

Support for the Pan-Blue Camp 0.138 0.228 0.130 0.229 0.137 0.229

Support for the Pan-Green Camp -0.196 0.229 -0.191 0.228 -0.163 0.229

Prefer using Taiwan to ROC -0.344 0.194 -0.352 0.194 -0.325 0.194

Prefer unification 0.502*** 0.087 0.510*** 0.086 0.500*** 0.086

Hoping Mainland China become democratic

0.151 0.095 0.144 0.095 0.151 0.095

Our democracy can change Mainland China

0.133* 0.067 0.130 0.067 0.126 0.067

Keeping economic status quo -0.113 0.073 -0.116 0.073 -0.124 0.073

Male -0.618** 0.178 -0.610** 0.180 -0.624*** 0.178

Education -0.036 0.038 -0.036 0.038 -0.035 0.038

Generations (base= 3rd, born 1954~1968)

1st & 2nd (born before 1953) 0.001 0.266 0.025 0.268 0.027 0.266

4th (born 1969~1978) 0.494* 0.246 0.533* 0.245 0.581* 0.248

5th (born 1979~1988) 1.075*** 0.274 1.107*** 0.273 1.146*** 0.275

6th (born 1989~1993) 0.557 0.336 0.644 0.334 0.696* 0.336

Observations 674 674 674

AIC 829.877 833.690 831.317

Notes: significance level * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001

Conclusion and Discussion• The findings help explain the dynamics of

Sunflower Movement.

• brothers vs. friends

• Democracy vs. Economy (CSSTA)

• Dual national identity and positive attitudes toward economic cooperation