Jack H Britt <> Council of Dairy Cattle Breeding <> February 25, 2019Expert Forecasters: Mike Hutjens, IL; Gordie Jones, WI; Jeff Stevenson, KS; Pam Ruegg, MI; Chad Dechow, PA; George Seidel, CO;

Bob Cushman, NB; Tony McNeel, MI; Louise Holt, VT; Hilary Dobson, UK; Martin Sheldon, UK; Patrice Humblot; SE

1

The Past. Looking back to KY in 1950’s

Born February 1954Pictured at 10 yr. of age8y 1m: 16,990M 626F

Nature. April 25, 1953 (Structure of DNA)Nature. April 25, 1953 (Structure of DNA)1

2

3

Peters, Christian J., Jamie Picardy, Amelia F. Darrouzet-Nardi, Jennifer L. Wilkins, Timothy S. Griffin, Gary W. Fick. 2016. Carrying capacity of U.S. agricultural land: Ten diet scenarios. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene • 4: 000116 • doi: 10.12952/journal.elementa.000116

USA findings: Dairy feeds most people from USA land base

10.00

9.00

8.00

7.00

6.00

5.00

4.00

Carr

ying

Cap

acity

(108

pers

ons)

Vers

ions

of C

urre

nt D

iets

Dairy

0.49 0.57 0.64 0.71 0.78 0.85 0.92Proportion of cropland available for cultivated cropping

Egg

Vegan

1

2

3

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

Asia Africa Europe Latin Amer.& Carib.

N. Amer. Oceania

Popu

latio

n (1

,000

peo

ple) 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067

World view: Growth of population will be in Africa and Asia

10.4 Billion People

93% of growth willbe in Asia and Africa,82% in Africa alone

Britt et al. 2018. J. Dairy Sc. 101 (5): 3722-3741. Data source: FAOSTAT 2017.

ExportMarkets

1

23

652,524,057,600

958,125,000,000

1,249,500,000,000

2017 @ FAO, 87 kg

2067 @ EAT-Lancet, 91 kg

2067 @ FAO, 119 kg

Kg of milk needed globally

Estimated Global Milk Consumption in 2017 and 2067, kg

100%

147%

191%

World view: Demand for dairy will be strong

1

2

525,315,906

262,657,953

249,500,799

2017 Average

2X of 2017 Average

1.25% increase/yr

Aver

age

Yiel

d Pe

r Cow

in 2

067

Dairy Cows Needed in 2067 withDifferent Milk Yield Averages

World view: How many dairy cows to meet demand

1

1

Yield range, kg <> No. cows

World view: 26 countries have 75% of dairy cows in world today50

,905

,190

17,0

60,1

17

13,1

02,0

00

12,0

14,6

21

11,9

00,0

00

9,34

6,00

0

7,91

9,76

5

7,38

5,00

0

7,04

3,56

9

6,75

3,09

6

6,50

0,00

0

6,00

0,00

0

5,96

9,04

6

5,04

3,81

3

5,01

6,83

8

4,19

9,01

0

4,08

3,14

1

4,02

5,31

6

3,63

0,00

0

3,41

1,42

9

3,36

4,72

5

2,50

6,33

9

2,33

6,75

3

2,22

3,69

1

2,15

4,34

5

2,08

9,50

0

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

Indi

a

Braz

il

Paki

stan

Chin

a

Ethi

opia

U S

A

Suda

n

Sout

h Su

dan

Russ

ia

Tanz

ania

Colo

mbi

a

Keny

a

Turk

ey N Z

Uzb

ekis

tan

Ger

man

y

Uga

nda

Bang

lade

sh

Fran

ce

Afgh

anis

tan

Arge

ntin

a

Mex

ico

Kaza

khst

an

Nig

eria

Pola

nd

Ukr

aine

Num

ber o

f Dai

ry C

ows 4,200 to 10,500 kg <> 36,012,576 cows

1,900 to 3,200 kg <> 45,762,100 cows500 to 1,700 kg <> 79,918,619 cows200 to 500 kg <> 44,290,009 cows

FAOSTAT 2017

FAO estimates 274 million total dairy cows in 2017

1

10,4

57

1,64

3

1,96

3

7,78

0

4,38

9

2,56

1

6,72

2

4,23

7

3,14

3

1,23

0

8,04

2

8,58

7

6,35

7

4,69

5

6,35

4

4,92

0

3,00

1

2,00

3

5,78

8

8,75

7

10,4

57

3,01

0

2,77

9

3,03

7

3,14

4

3,07

5

3,20

2

3,25

0

3,24

4

3,03

8

3,11

1

3,18

0

3,23

1

3,25

8

3,29

8

3,32

3

3,31

5

3,27

1

3,29

6

3,33

0

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

U S

A

Indi

a

Braz

il

Ger

m…

Russ

ia…

Chin

a

Fran

ce

New

…

Turk

ey

Paki

st…

U K

Net

he…

Pola

nd

Mex

ico

Italy

Ukr

aine

Arge

n…

Uzb

ek…

Aust

ra…

Cana

da

Milk

yie

ld, k

g/an

imal

/yea

r

kg/an Cum Avgkg/an

FAOSTAT 2017

World Avg is2,379 kg/cow

World view: 20 countries produce 75% of cow’s milk

1

2

Current view: Cow’s milk is mostly consumed in non-fluid forms in the USA.

23% vs 77%

Milk vs Other dairy56 billion lbs.

• Caseins and other proteins: A1, A2, better cheese yields, etc.• Fatty acids: Beneficial to health• SCC: 200,00 or lower• Processing: Best for ultrafiltration, UHT, aseptic packaging• New Products: USA seems to be lagging

159 billion lbs.

1

2

100%

146%

1.4%

2.6%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

USA Milk Supply and Percentage from Imports Since 1995 (100%)

TotalSupply

Import%of Supply

USDA estimated components of USA milk supply on a milk fat basis are 3.7% fat solids, 8.8% skim solids.

USA milk supply: Milk supply growth exceeds population growth.

USPopulation

up 22%

1

-11.700

0.32

3

-0.2

46-0

.568

-12.00

-10.00

-8.00

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

Milk

Fat

Prot

Lact

Billion Pounds

Change in Pounds of Milk and Components Marketed with 4.2% F and 3.2% P

~156,700 semi tanker loads of milk

USA markets: Balancing volume and components with % instead of pounds

Calculations by Jack Britt, January 20191

2

View ahead: Milk prices in USA will continue to be VOLATILE!

$14.00

$16.00

$18.00

$20.00

$22.00

$24.00

$26.00

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

Inflation Adjusted Mailbox Prices USA

Original data: Hoard’s Dairyman April 25, 2018, page 264.

60% below

40% above1

Future: Shareholders and politicians focus on short-term results

WSJ12/4/2018

< 0.5 acres/person

>0.75 acres/person

Arable Landper

Person (acres)

Longer Longer growing season

Future: Population, land for food production and climate change.

Longer Longer growing season

Longer Longer growing season

82% of people81% of food

N. hemisphere

Equator

1 3

2

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature-projections

B1

A2

A1b

Tem

pera

ture

cha

nge

from

197

1-19

99 a

vera

ge (

C)

0

2

4

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

0

2

4

6

8

Future: Adapting to climate change on dairy farms

Cooling Cows

Efficient Irrigation

Healthy Roots

1

2

Tem

pera

ture

cha

nge

from

197

1-19

99 a

vera

ge (

F) 34

USA future climate examples: https://fitzlab.shinyapps.io/cityapp/

Edmonton ABwill feel like

St. Cloud MN

Fresno CA will feel likeTijuana MX

Gainesville, FLwill feel like

Ciudad Victoria MX

Dalhart TXwill feel likePresido TX

Quebec City, QCwill feel like

Southgate MI

Plattsburgh NYwill feel like

Noblesville IN

12

Looking ahead: Understanding the dairy herd as a SUPERORGANISM

Gene Cell Organ Animal

We cannot learn about herds by studying these: 1

2

13 production units (herds)• Study practices, trends, long-term• Use sensors, surveys, samples• Assess micro- and macro-environments• What characterizes “good management”?• Do herds behave as superorganisms?

Herds in Close Proximity

8.5 mi5.

9 m

i

1

ReliableRepeatablePrecision-AccuracyLess labor

Integrated sensors

Sensors, automation, robotics, artificial intelligence

• Soils• Crops• Silo/bales• Lagoon• Natural areas• Barns• Milking center• Personnel• Equipment• Commodities• Robots• Air• Waterways• Roads• Vehicles

Data in the cloud & Blockchain

1

Disruptive: Open source research and dissemination(Why do we need journals when our base is declining?)

Blockchain

Cloud Computing

On-cow Sensors

Parlor Sensors

Data CentersDairy Research Ctrs.

Dairy FarmersUSDA ARS Scientists

Dairy Scientists

Dairy Processors

1

Looking ahead. Genetics of cows of the future

Gene based, not breed based

Efficient, smaller environmental

footprint

Healthier Proprietary genes licensed

in embryos

Gene editing to move genes within

& among breeds

Includes their

microbiome1

2

http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/maps/gallery/search/6?facets=theme:climate

1 1

22

2

2

2

33

2

44

2

3

3

1234

Genetics of the future: Four global dairy cattle lines

1

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Fat%Protein%Lactose%

ME milkME

ME proteinDry matter intake

BCSNet income

Energy balanceDays to 1st CLLifetime milk

Lifetime fatAge first calvingLifetime protein

Productive lifePersistency of yield

SCC averageIncidence, mastitis

First calving intervalDays to 1st AIIncidence, RP

Incidence, ketosisIncidence, metritis

Genetic Epigenetic

Bennet Cassell, Using Heritability for Genetic Improvement https://pubs.ext.vt.edu/404/404-084/404-084.html

Genetics of the future: Focus shifts to understanding “epigenetics”

19% 81%

(broadly defined)

Environmental Action Observed Responseweeks, months, years

Retrospective analyses of Big Dataand temporal relationships

(RNAs, Methylation, Histone Acetylation)

12

Sensors and robotics: Artificial Intelligence in dairy management

StarterFeeder

MilkFeeder

RFIDEartag

2

1

Mechanisms: How does weight loss affect fertility of a cow’s eggs?

Maintained = 62% CR

Lost = 25% CR

Bovine Practitioner 24: 39-43, 1992.

Ult

ras

ou

nd

siz

e

Days Before or After Calving

“Britt Hypothesis” Here’s what observed.

Here’s a diagram of our hypothesis.

Prim

ordi

al p

ool

Act

iva

ted

oo

cyt

e fr

om

ov

aria

n r

ese

rve

+80-21 +35 +75+21Weight loss Environment

Ovu

lati

on

of

eg

g

101 Days

Microscopic size

1

2

25%

38%

84%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Lost Maintained Gained

Preg

nanc

y ra

te p

er ti

med

AI (

%)

Body Condition Change During 3 Weeks Postpartum

789 cows

675 cows

423 cows

The Britt Hypothesis: 22 years later…

Carvalho et al, J Dairy Science 97:3666-3683, 2014

Pregnancy Rates (%)to Timed AI in Holstein cows

1

M. Zachut and U. Moallem. 2017. J. Dairy Sci. 100 (4) 3143–3154

Future: Do cows have to lose weight to have high yields?

1 2

N.-T. Ha et al. 2017 J. Dairy Sci. 100 (5) 3742–3753.

Future: Will some bulls produce daughters that are more robust?

1

Resilience: Example of genetic resilience through variation in a trait.

Tom V. L. Berghof*, Marieke Poppe and Han A. Mulder. 2019.Opportunities to Improve Resilience in Animal Breeding ProgramsFrontiers in Genetics 14 January 2019 doi: 10.3389/fgene.2018.00692

1

Source: https://www.the-scientist.com/?articles.view/articleNo/47256/title/From-Stem-Cell-to-Oocyte-In-a-Dish/

O. Hikabe et al. 2016. Reconstitution in vitro of the entire cycle of the mouse female germ line. Nature 539: 299–303

Culture stem cellswith special growthmodifiers

BovineBlastocyst

StemCells

Harvest and cultureInner Cell Mass cells withgrowth factors

Oogonia &Spermatogonia

Culture oogonia and spermatogoniawith meiotic factors

“Oocytes” &“Spermatozoa”

FertilizedOocytes

IVM &IVF

Culture &scan genomeof ICM cell

One Generation

PerMonth

Creating line: Breeding in the petri dish?

3-D Printing? Wow!

1

Males only fed high sugar for short period

Males mated with normal-fed females

Reprogramming of embryonic genome

Male offspring have increased obesity:

Ost, A. et al (2014). Paternal Diet Defines Offspring Chromatin State and Intergenerational Obesity. Cell 159(6): 1352–1364.

PreciseNutrition

DNARegulators

Stem CellTransfers

Environ-mentalControl

Many epigenetic strategies

Managing epigenome: Feed bulls differently in the future to affect progeny?

1

2

Looking ahead: Managing the microbiome to benefit crops and cows.

TherapeuticAgronomic Environmental Cow Specific

1

Reaching for the FutureEnvision It and Create It

Thank You for this Opportunity