BRIEF TECHNICAL REPORT - WORKING DOCUMENT …pmvish.people.wm.edu/PopeFaces.pdfBRIEF TECHNICAL REPORT - WORKING DOCUMENT Predicting the Selection of the Next Pope Based on Face Photos

BRIEF TECHNICAL REPORT - WORKING DOCUMENT

Predicting the Selection of the Next Pope Based on Face Photos

Peter M. Vishton and Jennifer A. Stevens

Psychology Department College of William and Mary [email protected] / [email protected]

For more information also see these sites:

PRESS RELEASE: http://www.wm.edu/news/stories/2013/face-the-facts-wm-researchers-predict-selection-of-the-next-pope123.php

VIRGINIA GAZETTE ARTICLE: http://www.vagazette.com/news/va-vg-pope-study-20130308,0,7152370.story

JENNIFER STEVENS’ WEB PAGE: http://wmpeople.wm.edu/site/page/jastev/jenniferstevensphd

PETER VISHTON’S WEB PAGE: http://pmvish.people.wm.edu

mailto:[email protected]




http://www.wm.edu/news/stories/2013/face-the-facts-wm-researchers-predict-selection-of-the-next-pope123.php




http://www.vagazette.com/news/va-vg-pope-study-20130308,0,7152370.story




http://wmpeople.wm.edu/site/page/jastev/jenniferstevensphd




http://pmvish.people.wm.edu

http://pmvish.people.wm.edu

On February 11, 2013, Pope Benedict XVI announced his intention to abdicate. In early March, 2013, a conclave of cardinals will convene in Rome to select the next Pope. The group will presumably discuss a wide range of different issues: the current state of the Catholic Church and the world, geopolitics, religious beliefs, and the qualifications of potential selections. They will also look at each others’ faces. This study explores the prediction that the unconscious assessment of face appearance will strongly, unconsciously affect their selection.

Much prior research has established that face appearance often influences assessments of others and decisions about them. For instance, the Todorov, Mandisodza, Goren, and Hall (2005) presented participants with images of faces from competing electoral candidates and asked them to rate them on a variety of features, such as trustworthiness and competence. Participants had no knowledge of the candidates except for the face images, but their ratings enabled better than chance predictions of election outcomes. The differences in ratings were even linearly related to the winning candidates margin of victory. The information involved in these types of assessments seem to be gathered from even very brief exposures to the stimuli (Ballew & Todorov, 2007; Willis & Todorov, 2006).

The goal of the current study was to assess whether this strategy could be used to predict the outcome of the cardinal conclave tasked with selecting the next Pope. It provides a good test case, because the selection of a Pope is a decision based on detailed information by a group of experts. Congressional elections are decided by many thousands of votes from a popular electorate exposed to media-driven campaigns that can provide conflicting, misleading, and often negative information. In such an environment, there may be no clearly preferential candidate, such that the appearance of the face may be all that is needed to tip the scales. If the same principles apply to the decisions of a conclave of highly educated, experienced, senior leaders, it would suggest that the power of a face to drive decisions is truly powerful.

We collected pictures of 20 cardinals identified as leading candidates for selection. Survey participants viewed the pictures and rated them on four different traits: attractiveness, health, trustworthiness, and likelihood to be selected as the next Pope. Based on an analysis of this data, an set of overall favorites emerge. It is our prediction that one of these individuals will be selected as the next Pope.

METHODS

Participants

All procedures were approved by the College of William and Mary Protection of Human Subjects Committee. A group of 557 participants (327 male, 230 female) was recruited via Amazon Mechanical Turk, a system by which participants are recruited and paid to perform “human intelligence tasks” (HITs). Each was paid 20 cents for their participation. The identities of participants were anonymous. Of the participants, 137 self-identified as Christian; 237 self-identified as Hindu; 169 of the participants self-identified as being from North America; 337 self-identified as being from Asia.

Materials

We used a list of 20 leading papal candidates, identified by a variety of media outlets (e.g., New York Times, USA Today, the National Catholic Reporter). Face images were collected from freely available online sources. As much as possible, we collected images that showed the face with a neutral-to-positive expression. The photos looked similar to what one might see in the photograph on a picture ID.

Procedure

Four blocks of 20 trials each were completed by each participant in a random order. In each block the 20 faces were presented in a random order in a web page. At the top of each page were instructions about how to rate each image in terms of Attractiveness, Trustworthiness, Health, and the Likelihood of being selected as the next Pope. All ratings were made on a scale from 1 - 7. A sample copy of the survey is presented in

the Appendix to this report. Participants completed the survey in approximately 6 minutes.

RESULTS

Our analysis is currently continuing, but we began with a focus on the first block of rating produced by each participants. The first block for 131 participants contained ratings of attractiveness; for 127 participants the ratings were of trustworthiness; for 148 participants the ratings were of health; and for 150 participants the ratings were of the likelihood of being selected Pope.

We assessed the correlation between mean ratings for the 20 candidates. Attractiveness and Pope Selection Likelihood were correlated significantly (r = 0.58, df = 18, p < .008). Attractiveness and Trustworthiness were correlated significantly (r = 0.74, df = 18, p < .0003). Also, Trustworthiness and Pope Selection Likelihood were correlated significantly (r = 0.64, df = 18, p < .003). Other correlations were present but not statistically significant.

The top-ranked candidate for Attractiveness and Trustworthiness was Cardinal Sean O’Malley, age 69, of United States.The top-ranked candidate for Health was Cardinal Cardinal Luis Tagle, age 56, of the Philippines.The top-ranked candidate for Likelihood of selection was Cardinal Angelo Scola, age 72, of Italy.

We also summed the ratings for all categories to obtain a composite evaluation. The overall top-ranked individual was O’Malley, followed by Cardinal Peter Erdo, age 61, of Hungary, and Argentinian Cardinal Leonardo Sandri, age 70. Erdo and Sandri did not win any particular category but scored consistently high in all four.

DISCUSSION

Based on the composite rating of face photographs, our prediction is that the next Pope of the Roman Catholic Church will be Cardinal Sean O’Malley of United States. The consistently strong positive correlations between the different ratings suggests that a common assessment process

influenced all four ratings. Prior research suggests that the common process is related to the appearance of the face and that it drives general assessments of individuals. Our prediction is that the selection process of the conclave of cardinals will similarly, unconsciously be influenced by this face-based process.

A less specific prediction is that one of the top scoring cardinals will be chosen as the next Pope. Thus, if not O’Malley, then Erdo, or Sandri will be chosen. If none of these three is chosen then perhaps face appearance does not play as big a role in this selection process as in others.

REFERENCES

Todorov, A., Mandisodza, A. N., Goren, A., & Hall, C. C. (2005). Inferences of competence from faces predict election outcomes. Science, 308(5728), 1623-1626.

Willis, J., & Todorov, A. (2006). First Impressions Making Up Your Mind After a 100-Ms Exposure to a Face. Psychological science, 17(7), 592-598.

Ballew, C. C., & Todorov, A. (2007). Predicting political elections from rapid and unreflective face judgments. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104(46), 17948-17953.

Rule, N. O., Ambady, N., Adams Jr, R. B., Ozono, H., Nakashima, S., Yoshikawa, S., & Watabe, M. (2010). Polling the face: prediction and consensus across cultures. Journal of personality and social psychology, 98(1), 1.

APPENDIX - SAMPLE SURVEY

2/20/13 9:19 PMSurvey | Qualtrics Survey Software

Page 1 of 2https://wmsurveys.qualtrics.com/SE/?SID=SV_3atBUMKJclwysbH&Q_R=R_bsb5AUx0kmfF0Oh

Welcome to our brief face perception study!

Thank you for checking us out. This study involves makingsimple judgments about faces. There are about 80 judgmentstotal. Most participants complete the study in about 6 minutes.Click the arrows below to proceed to the Consent Form, and thenthe study can begin.

Informed Consent FormPsychology DepartmentCollege of William & Mary Title of Project: Face Perception and Assessment Researchers: Peter M. Vishton, Jennifer A. Stevens By checking the “Yes” box below, I certify that I have been given the following information with respect to myparticipation in this study. 1. Purpose of the research: This study seeks to determine how different attributes of faces are encoded andused to make assessments of people. 2. Procedure to be followed: You will be asked for some basic information about your sex, age, etc. You willthen view a series of faces, and, for each one, you will be asked to make a rating about the appearance of the face. 3. Discomforts and risks: There are no risks associated with this procedure. 4. Time duration of participation: The procedure will last approximately 7 minutes. 5. Statement of confidentiality: Your identity will be neither collected nor recorded. Only aggregate analyseswill be reported in publications and presentations, not the performance of individual participants. Data will be stored in asecure file that will only be accessible by the PIs and their authorized collaborators. In the future, the aggregate datasetmay be shared with other interested and--as determined by the PIs--qualified researchers. 6. Voluntary participation: Your participation is fully voluntary. There is no requirement to complete theprocedure. 7. Incentive for participation: If you have been recruited via Mechanical Turk, you will be given a code at theend of the survey that will enable you to receive payment via that system. For others, your participation is fullyvoluntary. 8. Termination of participation: You can withdraw from the experiment at any time, for any reason, withoutpenalty of any kind.

9. Data sharing: This form requests your permission to include your anonymous ratings in a data library on theInternet (e.g., Databrary.org). The library allows researchers interested in similar research to share findings. Datasharing will help researchers to learn more from the data they collect and will lead to faster progress in our



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sharing will help researchers to learn more from the data they collect and will lead to faster progress in ourunderstanding human perception and cognition. 10. Questions regarding the research should be directed to: Peter M. Vishton, Psychology Department, College ofWilliam & Mary, Williamsburg, VA 23817-8795, [email protected], (757) 221-3879. 11. Questions or concerns regarding participation in this research should be directed to: Peter M. Vishton, PsychologyDepartment, College of William & Mary, Williamsburg, VA 23817-8795, [email protected], (757) 221-3879. 12. I understand that I may report any dissatisfaction with any aspect of this investigation to Lee Kirkpatrick, Chair ofthe Protection of Human Subjects Committee by telephone at 757-221-3997, or via e-mail at [email protected].

I have read, understood, and printed a copy of, the above consent form and desire of my own free will to participate inthis study.



Male

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Christian, Protestant

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Prefer not to answer

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South or Central America

Western Europe

Eastern Europe

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Please answer the following questions about yourself. The data will only be used for analyzing the results of the currentexperiment.

Are you male or female?

In what year were you born?

Please answer the religious affiliation that matches you best from among the following choices:

What is your home location?

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1 - NOT AT ALL ATTRACTIVE

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Some faces are extremely attractive and pleasant to see. Others areless attractive.

For the following set of 20 images, please rate how ATTRACTIVE youperceive each face to be on a scale from 1 to 7, where 1 indicates thatyou see the face as NOT AT ALL ATTRACTIVE, and 7 indicates thatyou see the face as EXTREMELY ATTRACTIVE.

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For the following set of 20 images, please rate how TRUSTWORTHYyou perceive each face to be on a scale from 1 to 7, where 1 indicatesthat you see the face as NOT AT ALL TRUSTWORTHY, and 7indicates that you see the face as EXTREMELY TRUSTWORTHY.

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In the very near future, the Roman Catholic Church will be selecting anew Pope. For the next 20 face images, please indicate the likelihoodthat you think that each person will be chosen as the new Pope, on ascale from 1 to 7, where 1 means you think it VERY UNLIKELY thatthe person will be chosen Pope, and 7 means you think it is VERYLIKELY that the person will be chosen Pope.

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Thank you for your participation in this study! Please do not participate inthe study more than once.

We are conducting this study to better understand how people assessothers based on the characteristics of their faces. In particular, we areinterested in how well judgments about faces can be used to predict howdecisions about that individual are made.

If you enter your email address here, we will send you a summary of theresults when the study is complete. Alternatively, you can check backafter April 1, 2013 at http://pmvish.people.wm.edu for the results.

EMAIL (optional):


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We thank you for your time spent taking this survey. Your response has been recorded.

Documents

BRIEF TECHNICAL REPORT - WORKING DOCUMENT …pmvish.people.wm.edu/PopeFaces.pdfBRIEF TECHNICAL REPORT - WORKING DOCUMENT Predicting the Selection of the Next Pope Based on Face Photos