Brexit: Where have we got to and where are we heading?

Anand Menon

www.UKandEU.ac.uk

@anandMenon1

Outline

• What’s going on?

• What might happen next?

• What will the impact be?

• Politics after Brexit

• Post-Brexit Britain

• Conclusion

What’s going on?

• Parliamentary pantomime

• Slow shifts

• No options removed from the table

What’s going on in the parties?

• Labour and ambiguity that worked in 2017

• Independent Group increasing pressure

• Tories and membership

• The pull of the tribe

Labour’s effective ambiguity

Source: Ford/Sobolewska

Source: Alan Wager/Survation/Chris Hanretty

Labour and Conservative target seats and Brexit vote, 2016

Labour and Conservative target seats and Brexit opinion, 2019

Source: Alan Wager/Survation/Chris Hanretty

Do you think the Labour party’s policy on Brexit is clear or unclear?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Fairly/Completely Unclear and Confusing Fairly/Completely Clear Not sure

Source: YouGov/What UK Thinks/UK in a Changing Europe

The party and public view of the Withdrawal Agreement

Do you support or oppose Mrs May’s draft Brexit deal?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Tory Backbench MPs Tory Party Members Tory Voters

Support May's Deal Oppose May's Deal

Source: ESRC PMP Project/Hansard

Source: ESRC Party Members Project

What Next?

• The deal that won’t die

• May’s (possible plan)

• Playing chicken with parliament

• The votes to come

The alternatives for MPs

• Delay - merely stalling

• Similarly, a general election

• Three options:• No deal (next slide)

• Referendum

• May’s deal

Source: Bank of England

It’s the economy, stupid? Public opinion since the vote

Source: What UK Thinks

What will the impact be?

• Economic forecasts

• Aggregate terms we have a relatively clear picture

• Regional picture relatively stark

• Misleading notion of cliff edge

• ‘Slow puncture’?

• Matters in terms of narrative and the politics (cf debate over Nissan)

-10%

-9%

-8%

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

% o

f G

DP

Long-term economic impact of leaving the EU

GDP per head Fiscal impact

DEAL WTO

Worst-case scenario Worst-case scenarioBest-case scenario Best-case scenario

Source: UK in a Changing Europe

Share of GDP exposed to

Brexit

Politics after Brexit

• A new Brexit divide?

• Will it persist?

• The Independent Group

• Lots of plausible deniability about• For Labour, allow Tory Brexit and blame them for impact

• For Tories, show opposition to the deal now, so can attack later

• Lay groundwork for blaming EU

• Note also that behind the Brexit division the substantive divisions that exist

Source: NatCen

Social identity: the driver of Brexit

Source: British Election Study

Where to post-Brexit?

• Important to bear in mind where we’re coming from

• Proof of Brexit pudding

• Domestic impact and developments

• Plenty to fix, much of which nothing to do with the EU

Change in disposable household income in top 20 Leave and Remain voting areas

• Difference between highest Leave- and Remain-voting areas changed from £4,700 per year in 1997 to £11,100 in 2015

• Lambeth and Boston, the highest Leave-and Remain-voting areas respectively, went from the same level in 1997 to Lambeth being £3,600 ahead by 2015

Source: Matt Bevington/ONS

Source: Rob Ford/UK in a Changing Europe

0,0%

0,5%

1,0%

1,5%

2,0%

2,5%

3,0%

3,5%

4,0%

London E England Scotland W Midlands N Ireland N East E Midlands Wales N West Yorks andHumber

S West S East

Gross value added per head growth, year on year, by region

2017 5yr av

Source: ONS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

%

Hansard Society Audit of Political Engagement

Satisfaction with system of governance

Feel can change the way UK is run

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Parliament emergingfrom Brexit in good light

Current generation ofpoliticians not up to the

job

British political systemneeds complete

overhaul

Brexit process hasshown politicians are intouch with the country

Current British politicalsystem enables my voice

to be heard

Written constitution?

%

ComRes poll, 14-15 January 2019

Agree Disagree Don't know

N=2,010

Conclusion

• Breaking political mould

• Was revolution necessary?

• The Brexit challenge

• Politics versus economics?