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Brexit in detail
Stora Skattedagen
Stockholm, 9:e november, 2017
2© 2017 KPMG AB, a Swedish limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative, a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
AgendaIntroduction
The impact on business
Optimising your position
Wrap up and questions
3© 2017 KPMG AB, a Swedish limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative, a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Brexit: Changing priorities
The Customs Union – In or Out
In 2016, we thought the Brexit discussions would focus on:
Single market and regulatory constraints
Availability of Directives
End of Free Movement of People
How to spend the Brexit windfall?
But in 2017, what we are actually discussing is:
The Customs Union – In or Out A new union?
Single market and regulatory constraints and restrictions on negotiating new trading arrangementsAvailability of DirectivesEnd of Free Movement of People Managed migration and visa-free travelHow to spend the Brexit windfall? fund the exit bill?
What should the transition period look like?What about Euratom?
Do we need the ECJ?
Working together to secure the best Brexit deal
Working together Potential Parliamentary defeat to secure the best Brexit deal Is “no deal” really so bad?
4© 2017 KPMG AB, a Swedish limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative, a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.© 2017 KPMG AB, a Swedish limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative, a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Scenarios
The process
The (potential) outcome
Drop dead Brexit
deadline
Mar 17 Sept 17 Mar 18 Sept 18 Mar 19
New deal
Invoke Article
50
Effective deadline for
political solution
Point of no return on
divorce talks
Ratification
Bespoke deal
Cliff edge
Yes
Withdrawal talks. Sufficient progress?
No Political uncertainty
Withdrawal
The timeline
5© 2017 KPMG AB, a Swedish limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative, a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Brexit: the impact for Sweden (1)Wide ranging impacts:- Trade with UK - volume- Trade with the UK - increased cost and
administration - Impact on Eurozone/non-Eurozone
power balance- Loss of R&D funding, and a like-minded
R&D partner- Swedish expats in the UK (>33,000 per
2010 ONS report)
Swedish exports to the UK:Goods: SEK 72B (6th largest market)Services: SEK 51B (3rd largest market)Swedish imports from the UK:Goods: SEK 62BServices: SEK 62B
(Based on 2016 data)
Key Export Sectors:• Manufacturing, including machinery• Automotive• Minerals, including oil• Pharmaceuticals• Fishing
6© 2017 KPMG AB, a Swedish limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative, a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Sector For example: Key Brexit issues
Retail IKEA H&M
Currency fluctuations Inbound customs duties Supply chain risk Workforce availability
Manufacturing and Automotive
Atlas Copco Electrolux Volvo Ericsson
Inbound and outbound customs duties SLA (service level agreements) risks Global mobility
Transport Stena Gridlock at ferry ports Overstretched infrastructure Supply chain disruption
Pharma AstraZeneca Regulatory impacts Cold chain Data protection R&D collaboration
Technology Skype Spotify King
Access to international workforce and talent
Brexit: the impact for Sweden (2)
7© 2017 KPMG AB, a Swedish limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative, a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The business impact
Financial Services -
Passporting
Other regulated sectors
Lead times
Manufacturing footprint
Regulatory
Customs &
Logistics
Availability of workforce
Global mobility
People
Increase in duties and/or administration
Investments
Ability to trade Efficiency of trade
M&A environment
Corporate structure
8© 2017 KPMG AB, a Swedish limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative, a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
KPMG Brexit Navigator
9© 2017 KPMG AB, a Swedish limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative, a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
KPMG Indirect Tax Assessor Tool
10© 2017 KPMG AB, a Swedish limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative, a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Keeping up to date
• Our “Managing Brexit” homepage• Expert opinion, thought leadership,
Brexit tools and more
KPMG.com
• Follow us on Twitter and Linked In• Receive invites to KPMG Brexit
themed events and webinars
Social media
• Our two year roadmap • Helps you to plot out your key
milestones
The Brexit Navigator
• A fresh perspective on Brexit• Click to subscribe to our weekly
thought leadership column
The Brexit Column
11© 2017 KPMG AB, a Swedish limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative, a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.© 2017 KPMG AB, a Swedish limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative, a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Brexit: Five key take aways
1 2 3 4 5
Keep informed – especially as
the Brexit landscape is
fluid
Understand the pressure
points for yourbusiness
Quantify the exposure to
help you prioritise
Work on your contingency
plan(s)
Identify your cut-off point: how long can
you wait it out?
Document Classification: KPMG Public
© 2017 KPMG AB, a Swedish limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International.
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