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2)(1
atn
RMSE
atn
MAE1
)a()t(
)at(R
22
:RMSE:MAE
:R:t:a
BREACH
DAMBRK
SMPDBKFLDWAVBREACH
SMPDBKDAMBRK
BREACH
BREACH
MATLAB, Ver 6.5
minmax
min
xx
xxy i
i
MATLAB
ei
)log()log()log(x
xxxei
xx
(1998)
Tei
T
(MAD)
(S)
S=1/483 (MAD)
ZT S
Zi=( ei T)/S
ei
>iZ
e
eS
eeS
ee SeSe xx 22 10.,10.
xeS2
-
(m3/s)
(±)
Kirkpatrick, 1977 5.2)3.0(268.1 wP hQ
SCS, 1981 85.1
wP )h(6.16Q
Hagen, 1982
SCS, 1981 85.1)(1.19 wP hQ
Singh & Snorrason, 1984 89.1)(4.13 dP hQ47.0)(776.1 SQp
Mac Donald&Langridge-Monopolis, 1984
Costa, 1985
44.0dp )hS(634.2Q
42.0dp )hS(981.0Q
Evans, 1986 53.0
wp )V(72.0Q
Froehlich,199524.1295.0 )()(607.0 wwP hVQ
Walder& O Connor, 1997
5.0)(54.0 dP hSQ
412.0)(154.1 wwP hVQ411.0)(85.3 wwP hVQ
(hr)
Mac Donald & Langridge-Monopolis, 1984 364.0)(0179.0 erf Vt
USBR, 1988 Bt f 11.0
Von Thun & Gillette, 1990
tf= 0/020 hw+ 0/25 tf= 0/015 hw
Von Thun & Gillette, 1990
wf h
Bt
4
0.614 w
f h
Bt
Froehlich,1995
9.0W
53.0Wf hV00254.0t
BREACH
MATLAB
HU, Q, RSA, ZU, ZD, ZC, RCL
HU, Q, RSA, RCL
HU, Q, RSA
HU
QRSA
ZU
ZD
ZCRCL
Qp
R MAE RMSE R MAE RMSE
tf
R MAE RMSE R MAE RMSE
Qp
tf
HU,QRSA
QRSAS
HUS
Qp,tfBave
Hu(m) S(m3) Qp(m3/s) Bave(m) tf (hr)
Apisha Colorado
Baldwin Hills California
Bradfield England
Break Neck USA
Buffalo Creek West Virginia
Bullock Draw Dike Utah
Castlewood Colorado
Cheahe Creek USA
Coedty England
Davis Reservoir California
DMAD Utah
Elk City Oklahoma
Euclides de Cunha Brazil
Frankfurt Germany
Fred Burr Montana
Frenchman Creek Montana
Goose Creek South Carolina
Grand Rapids USA
Hatchtown Utah
Hatfield USA
Hell Hole California
Horse Creek Colorado
lowa Beef Processors Washington
johnston City Illinois
Johnston (South Fork Dam) Pennsylvania
Kaddam India
Kelly Barnes Gorgia
Lake Avalon New Mexico
Lake Barcroft USA
Lake Frances California
Lake Latonka Pennsylvania
Laurel Run Pennsylvania
Little Deer Creek Utah
Lower Otay California
Lower Two Medicine Montana
Lyman Arizona
Hu(m) S(m3) Qp(m3/s) Bave(m) tf (hr)
Lynde Brook Massachusetts
Machhu II India
Mammoth USA
Mill River Massachusetts
Nanaksagar India
Oros Brazil
Rito Manzanares New Mixico
Salles Oliveira Brazil
Sandy Run Pennsylvania
Schaeffer Colorado
Sheep Creek USA
Sherburne USA
Sinker Creek USA
Spring Lake Rhode Island
Swift Montana
Teton Idaho
Wheatland No. 1 Wyoming
Winston North Carolina
R MAE RMSE R MAE RMSE
Bave
Qp
TP
m3/s
Kirkpatrick, 1977
SCS, 1981
Hagen, 1982
USBR, 1988
Singh & Snorrason, 1984
Mac Donald & Langridge-Monopolis, 1984
Costa, 1985
Evans, 1986
Froehlich, 1995
Walder& O Connor, 1997
hr
Mac Donald & Langridge-Monopolis,
1984
USBR, 1988
Von Thun & Gillette, 1990
Froehlich, 1995
SI
(m)
(m3/s)
(m2)
(m)
SI
(m3/s)
(hr)
0.000000010.0000001
0.0000010.000010.00010.001
0.010.1
1
0.001 0.01 0.1 1
Prediction Value
Ob
serv
atio
n V
alu
e
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
0.01 0.1 1
Predicted Value
Ob
serv
atio
n V
alu
e
eS2
(m3/s)
(m3/s)
Qp
(hr) (hr)
Time
BREACH
Qp
Tp
Bave
( tf ) Qp
(m)(hr))sm /3 (
BREACH
REFERENCES
4. Costa, John E. 1985. Floods from Dam Failures, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 85-560, Denver, Colorado, 54 p.
5. Evans, Steven G. 1986, The Maximum Discharge of Outburst Floods Caused by the Breaching of Man-Made and Natural Dams. Canadian Geotechnical Journal, vol. 23, August 1986.
6. Fread, D.L. 1988. (revised 1991), BREACH: An Erosion Model for Earthen Dam Failures, National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland.
7. Fread, D.L. 1984. DAMBRK: The NWS Dam-Break Flood Forecasting Model, National Weather Service, Office of Hydrology, Silver Spring, Maryland.
8. Froehlich, David C. 1995a. Peak Outflow from Breached Embankment Dam, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, vol. 121, no. 1, p. 90-97.
9. Hagen, Vernon K. 1982. Re-evaluation of Design Floods and Dam Safety, Proceedings, 14th
Congress of International Commission on Large Dams, Rio de Janeiro. 10. Kirkpatrick, Gerald W. 1977. Evaluation Guidelines for Spillway Adequacy, The Evaluation of
Dam Safety, Engineering Foundation Conference, Pacific Grove, California, ASCE, p. 395-414. 11. MacDonald, Thomas C., & Jennifer Langridge-Monopolis. 1984. Breaching Characteristics of Dam
Failures, Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, vol. 110, no. 5, p. 567-586. 12. Rousseeuw, Peter J. 1998. Robust Estimation and Identifying Outliers in Handbook of Statistical
Methods forEngineers and Scientists, 2nd ed., Harrison M. Wadsworth, Jr., editor. McGraw-Hill, New York, NY, pp. 17.1-17.15.
13. Singh, Krishan P., & Arni Snorrason. 1984. Sensitivity of Outflow Peaks and Flood Stages to the Selection of Dam Breach Parameters and Simulation Models, Journal of Hydrology, vol. 68, p. 295-310.
14. Soil Conservation Service. 1981. Simplified Dam-Breach Routing Procedure, Technical Release No. 66 (Rev. 1), December 1981, 39 p.
15. U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. 1988. Downstream Hazard Classification Guidelines, ACER Technical Memorandum No. 11, Assistant Commissioner-Engineering and Research, Denver, Colorado, December 1988, 57 p.
16. Von Thun, J. Lawrence, & David R. Gillette. 1990. Guidance on Breach Parameters, unpublished internal document, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, Colorado, March 13, 1990, 17 p.
17. Wahl, Tony L. 1997. Predicting Embankment Dam Breach Parameters - A Needs Assessment, Proceedings, 27th IAHR Congress, San Francisco, California, August 10-15, 1997.
18. Walder, Joseph S., & Jim E. O Connor, 1997, Methods for Predicting Peak Discharge of Floods Caused by Failure of Natural and Constructed Earth Dams, Water Resources Research, vol. 33, no. 10, October 1997, 12 p.
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