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© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Brazilian Automotive Market Have we reach the tipping point?
April, 2017
Carlos Da Silva, Manager+1 972 581 [email protected]
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.Source: © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
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2
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Global light vehicle sales
3
92,2
93,5
+ 0,5
+ 0,3
+ 0,2
+ 0,2
+ 0,2
+ 0,2 - 0,0- 0,2
92,2
92,4
92,6
92,8
93,0
93,2
93,4
93,6
93,8
2016 South Asia West Europe Japan/Korea Central/EastEurope
MiddleEast/Africa
South America Greater China North America 2017
Mill
ion
units
+1.4%
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
4
South America sales could return to peak only by the mid-2020s
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Milh
ões
Brazil Argentina Chile Colombia Peru Venezuela Others Change
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Brazil outlook summary
5
-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%
Real GDP growth
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Consumer price inflation
0
1
2
3
4
5
Exchange rate per USD*
*Annual average
02468
101214
Unemployment Rate (%)
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Economic Indicators Signal Stronger Market
-.2
-.1
.0
.1
.2
13.2
13.6
14.0
14.4
14.8
15.2
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Residual Actual Fitted
-120,000
-80,000
-40,000
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Residual Actual Fitted
STM 2014 2015 2016 2017
Total 3,328,017 2,364,025 1,961,671 2,061,591
LTM 2014 2015 2016 2017
Total 3,328,017 2,735,033 2,515,268 2,516,241
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Sales SAAR
7
-500.000
0
500.000
1.000.000
1.500.000
2.000.000
2.500.000
3.000.000
3.500.000
4.000.000
4.500.000
5.000.000
jan/
12
jan/
13
jan/
14
jan/
15
jan/
16
jan/
17
jan/
18
PACE LV
Brazil LV
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Brazil light vehicle sales
8
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
Milh
ões
Sales Annual Change
Despite still dire conditions, sales are back but in a much different market
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Brazil light vehicle production
9
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
Milh
ões
Production Annual Change
Export push has ignited the recovery, now also supported locally
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Given sales profile, Brazilian exports to become more important to sustain overall volumes
10
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
Milh
ões Production Sales
Critical period lies in the coming couple of years (adjustment period)
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Brazilian plants utilization is now forecast at 63% in 2017
11
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
5
Milh
ões
Capacity Utilization
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Exports push is just now combining with renewed product activity and local market uptick
91,80% 91,03% 86,90% 85,03%78,63% 74,58% 72,53%
64,43%
43,62%32,19%
8,2% 9,0% 13,1% 15,0%21,4% 25,4% 27,5%
35,6%
56,4%67,8%
Utilization Rate Idle Capacity
12
Market Average in 2017 – 63.2%
* Hyundai does not include CAOA operations
*
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Thank You, Muito Obrigado, Gracias!Guido Vildozo, Senior [email protected]
Carlos Da Silva, [email protected]
Fernando Trujillo, Senior [email protected]
Roberto Barros, Senior [email protected]
João Rebouças, [email protected]
13
