Bps Forecasting

8/2/2019 Bps Forecasting

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WHAT IS FORECASTING?

Forecasting is the use ofhistoric data to determine the

direction of future trends.

It is a planning tool that helps management in its attempts to

cope with the uncertainty of the future, relying mainly on data from

the past and present and analysis of trends.


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TYPES OFFORECASTS

Economic

Technological

Demand

Political

Social


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THREE POPULAR FORECASTING

TECHNIQUES

o Cross Impact Analysis

o Trend Impact Analysis

o Delphi Technique


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CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS

Is a method that helps the process of scanning thefield of possible future to reduce uncertainties.


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Step 1: Choice of the issue and Selecting the experts

Step 2: Final selection and definition of events

Step 3: Design the probability of scale and

definition of the time horizon

Step 4: Estimating probabilities

Step 5: Generation of Scenarios

STEPS IN CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS


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RESOURCES NEEDED

o Time

o Budget

o Labor Force

o Resources


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MAIN BENEFITS OF CIAIt is relatively easy to implement SMICquestionnaire

Cross-impact methods forces attention into

chains of causality

Estimate dependency and interdependencyamong events

It can be used to clarify and increaseknowledge on future developments


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TREND IMPACT ANALYSISIs a forecasting method that permits extrapolations of historical

trends to be modified in view of expectations about future events.

This method permits an analyst, interested in tracking a particular

trend, to include and systematically examine the effects of possible

future events that are believed important.


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DELPHI TECHNIQUEA forecasting techniques using a group processthat allows experts to make forecasts.


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Key elements of the DelphiProcess

o Structuring of the information flow

o Feedback to the participants

o Anonymity for the participants


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Steps for the Delphi Method

1. Formation of a team to undertake and monitor a Delphi on a given subject.

2. Selection of one or more panels to participate in the exercise. Customarily, the panelists are

experts in the area to be investigated.

3. Development of the first round Delphi questionnaire

4. Testing the questionnaire for proper wording (e.g., ambiguities, vagueness)

5. Transmission of the first questionnaires to the panelists

6. Analysis of the first round responses

7. Preparation of the second round questionnaires (and possible testing)

8. Transmission of the second round questionnaires to the panelists

9. Analysis of the second round responses (Steps 7 to 9 are reiterated as long as desired or

necessary to achieve stability in the results.)

10. Preparation of a report by the analysis team to present the conclusions of the exercise

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Bps Forecasting