Bounty of the seas...and the trees? Modeling the effects of terrestrial

inputs on marine ecosystem services in the US

Jodie Toft, J. Burke, M. Carey, G. Spiridonov,A. Guerry, P. Levin, , T. Minello, M. Plummer, M. Ruckelshaus, H.

Townsend

In what situations do watershed-based activities affect the success of marine

resource management?

watershed

water quality

oysters crabs

Simple linked watershed-marine models for application in the 3

systems?

Land use: upland

Land use: estuarine

Climate: SST

Climate: Precipitation

Puget Sound1. Hood Canal2. Whidbey

Basin

Chesapeake Bay1. Rappahann

ock2. Eastern

shore

Galveston Bay

HOOD CANAL

watershed

Establish baseline conditions (2004-6):

• discharge• total nitrogen

Discharge

kg/yr kg/ha/yr

Total Nitrogen Export

water quality

• Model temperature, salinity, nitrate

• Conduct sensitivity tests on baseline conditions (watershed)

12

3

45

6

8.5

9

9.5

10

10.5

11TEMPERATURESURFACE BOTTOM

25

26

27

28

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30

31SALINITYSURFACE BOTTOM

02468

1012141618

1 2 3 4 5 6

BOX

NITRATESURFACE BOTTOM

BASELINE

12

3

45

6

% C

han

ge f

rom

Baselin

e T

em

p.

SENSITIVITY TESTS:Effect to Surface Temperature from +/- of Land-Based Discharge

-100%

-75%

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150% Box 1

25% 50% 100%*

-100%

-75%

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

DecreaseIncrease

Box 2 Box 3

Box 4

25% 50% 100%*

Box 5 Box 6

% C

han

ge f

rom

Baselin

e T

em

p.

SENSITIVITY TESTS:Effect to Surface Temperature from +/- of Land-Based Discharge

-100%

-75%

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150% Box 1

25% 50% 100%*

-100%

-75%

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

DecreaseIncrease

Box 2 Box 3

Box 4

25% 50% 100%*

Box 5 Box 6

-300%

-250%

-200%

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

Boxes 1 6

% C

han

ge f

rom

Baselin

e T

em

p.

+/- 2 degree change in Sea Surface

Temperature at Ocean Boundary

Pacificoysters

Model effects to production and value from:

1. Changes in temperature, salinity, nutrients

2. Dissolved oxygen events3. Loss/gain of nearshore habitat

Dungeness crab

0.0

0.1

0.3

0.2

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0.3

0.20.1

0.0

Temperature (C)

6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

Sal

inity

(pp

t)

21222324252627282930

Years

0 20 40 60 80 100

Du

ng

en

ess

cra

b (

No

. m

ale

Ag

e 4

+)

200000

400000

600000

800000

Survival larvae

Pacific oysters

In what situations do watershed-based activities affect the success of marine

resource management?

Land use: upland

Land use: estuarine

Climate: SST

Climate: Precipitation

watershed

water quality

Pacificoysters

Dungeness crab

Uptake?

Water Yield Model

Average Annual Discharge ComparedTo USGS and WADOE gauge observations

2006

Snapshot:Land CoverAvailable Water ContentSoil DepthTopographyWatershedsSub-Watersheds

Annual Values:PrecipitationPotential Evapotranspiration

LU Tables:Rooting DepthPlant ET coefficientWater Demand

Subwatershed Source Years N-SDuckabushRiverBrinno

n USGS Daily 2006 0.99

Hamma Hamma near Eldon USGS Daily 1951-1971 -0.46

SkokomishRiverPotlatch USGS Daily 2006 0.99

BigBeefCreekatmouth USGS Daily 2006 0.19LittleQuilceneatMouth WA Dept Ecy Daily 2006 0.67

BigQuilceneRiveratmouth WA Dept Ecy Daily 2006 0.60

DosewallipsRiveratBrinnon WA Dept Ecy Daily 2007-2011 -0.73

Nutrient Model: Total Nitrogen and Phosphorus

Phosphorus, TotalSubwatershed Years Difference

Duckabush Brinnon 1972-2010 57.245Skokomish Potlatch 1960-2010 90.271Big Beef at mouth 2004-2010 58.006

Nitrogen, TotalSubwatershed Years Difference

Big Quilcene at mouth 1999-2010 72.880Duckabush Brinnon 2006 0.184Skokomish Potlatch 2006 79.663Big Beef at mouth 2006 7.209

Skokomish

1

3

45

6

Duckabush

Hamma Hamma

Dosewallips

Big QuilceneLittle Quilcene

Big Beef Creek

• 2-Layer Box Model, 6 Regions

• Based on Babson et al. (2006), but rewritten in MATLAB for more general use

• 6 boxes in HC, 7 rivers

• IC’s: from MoSSea

• BC’s: from ADM001 DoE station

ADM001 (DoE)

Hans (ORCA)

2

Physical transport model

Biogeochemical Cycling

NPZDO modeling: Oxygen is added in proportional to nutrient uptake (Banas et al. 2009)

or see: http://faculty.washington.edu/banasn/models/lynch/