Border Security Risk Model

Murray E. Jennex, Ph.D., P.E., CISSP, CSSLP

Risk Assessment, Mitigation, & Alignment Project

• This project is focusing on border risk – Risk from bringing in new technologies– Risk from border security threats– Risk from changes in the organizations

managing border security

Risk Assessment, Mitigation, & Alignment Project

• Project Goals are:– Quantify Threats, Risks, and Security Levels– Simulation and Modeling of Countermeasures– Inventory of Current Technologies Used in

Border Security & Risk Management– Prioritize Needed Technologies & Systems– Identify, Test, & Evaluate Easily Deployed,

Commercially Available Technologies– Identify Technology Gaps that Require

Further Development– Creation of a Border Security Risk Monitor

Risk Assessment, Mitigation, & Alignment Project

• Project Outputs are:– Risk Assessment and Mitigation Decision

Framework– BSI Readiness and Maturity Model– Prototype Border Security Risk Monitor– Adaptive, Risk-Informed Resource Allocation

• Each output leads to the next

Risk Assessment, Mitigation, & Alignment Project

• Challenges– Greatest challenge is in getting data for

constructing risk models for different areas of the border:

• North vs south• Ports vs airports• External vs internal

– Will leverage efforts from other projects, in particular the case studies that are being done

Risk Assessment, Mitigation, & Alignment Project

• Challenges

– Risk model challenges include variable and rule identification

– Risk monitor prototype challenges include:• Choosing a technology platform• Complexity of risk models

Risk Assessment, Mitigation, & Alignment Project

• Benefits include:– Provides framework for assessing border

risks (more than immigration and terrorism)• Provide a system for determining risk level• Provide a system for determining contingency

actions– Provide methodology to support evaluation

and deployment of new technologies within an integrated framework of layered protection

• Assess organizational needs for supporting new technologies

• Identify dependencies between technologies

Risk Assessment, Mitigation, & Alignment Project

• Year One Deliverables:– Survey of Risk Literature– DHS Data Needs/Assessment– Decision Framework– Survey of Readiness Models

Risk Assessment, Mitigation, & Alignment Project

• Investigators:– University of Arizona

• Larry Head• Ferenc Szidarovszky • Jian Liu

– San Diego State University• Murray Jennex• Eric Frost• Robert Judge

– Arizona State University• Rick Van Schoik

– RAND Corporation• Henry Willis• Joel Predd