Book Reviews

E.A. Wrigley (ed.), Poverty, Progress and Population., Cambridge:

Cambridge University Press, 2004, XIV+ 463 pp.

Sir TonyWrigley has published a collection of 15 articles, 12 of thempreviouslyavailable in journals and books. Even if some are also available on-line, thebook is a handy format, providing us with his insights into different aspects ofthe industrial revolution in England. He defends his concentration on theUnited Kingdom with its place as the first industrial nation with self-sustainedgrowth, but admits that his own nation’s singular role ‘‘can only be appreciatedproperly if attention is paid to the reasonswhybursts of growth in other periodsand places had always previously died away’’. This reviewer wants to add thatstudying the history of countrieswho imported significant industrial revolutionimpulses, might prove of even greater value for currently developing nations,especially countries with better source material covering the relevant historicalperiods. After all, most countries developed by adopting techniques andinfrastructure invented and launched elsewhere. Eight economic history arti-cles concentrate on the sustained growth, the occupational structure and thepoverty aspects behind the industrial revolution, three social history articlesdeal with the urban–rural question, and four population history articles delveinto demographic aspects of the relevant period. The current versions of thearticles have been slightly edited, further editing might have removed some ofthe apparent redundancy in the present volume.

The first two articles about economic growth during the industrial revolu-tion share much contents and explain convincingly how access to cheap,‘inorganic’ coal energy sustained economic growth in England through the17th, 18th and 19th centuries, while the even earlier modern, capitalist economyof The Netherlands ground to a halt because of its completely organic energybasis. The arguments for stressing developments of the English social structureduring an extended 18th century seem reasonable. Therefore, it is a pity thatarticles 4 (‘‘Men on the land and men in the countryside: employment inagriculture in early nineteenth century England’’) and 5 (‘‘The occupationalstructure of England in the mid-nineteenth century’’) cannot be based onsource material prior to the 1830 census. Also, more reliable occupational

European Journal of Population (2005) 21: 423–432DOI 10.1007/s10680-005-0162-9

statistics should be based on individual level data such as the sample from the1851 census used in article 15, rather than the contemporary aggregates. Theencoding of occupations currently undertaken at the History Data Service ofthe Essex Data Archive will facilitate such microdata analysis in the future.

Many of Wrigley’s research questions and arguments are taken from theclassical works of the three economists Malthus, Ricardo and Smith, eventhough their viewpoints were limited by being based on an organic energyeconomy. It is interesting how the older Malthus stopped seeing a subsistencelevel living standard as a necessary outcome of population growth (‘the con-stant passion between the sexes’ – cf article 8 ‘‘Malthus on the prospects for thelabouring poor’’). Population increase and concentration is also a focus in theurban–rural articles, convincingly making the point that urban growth wasdriven more by demand for special products in the countryside, than by theability of themore efficient agriculture in providing towns with necessary food,clothing, fuel and housing.

The last four articles are written to extend and in defence of the two seminaldemography volumes produced by the Cambridge Group under the leadershipof Wrigley: The Population History of England 1541–1871 (1987), and EnglishPopulation History Based on Family Reconstitution (1997). He argues con-vincingly for the good quality of the ministerial records in the reconstitutedparishes, but less so for the national representativeness of the findings the groupbased on their local data sets. Basing research on typical rather than randomsamples was questioned already a century ago, cf. the 1903 proceedings fromthemeetings of the International Statistics Institute. Even thoughmigrants andnon-migrants might have similar average age at marriage (article 14), I doubtthey are socially distributed in similarways – inwhich case farmerswouldmoveas frequently as transporters. The hypothesis in article 12 that the rise inmaritalfertility during the ‘long’ 18th centurywas due in large part to fewer stillbirths isinteresting, but as long as the competing hypothesis of more frequent andprolonged breast-feeding is not tested systematically, it remains inconclusive.

When studying British history three decades ago, we were told that thecountry’s population development during the industrial revolution could inprinciple not be investigated accurately because of limits inherent in thesource material. It is due to Wrigley’s efforts more than anyone else that wenow know much about the demography in early modern England. We owehim many thanks for again stimulating the debate with the publication of thecurrent volume. Anyone wanting to participate in it and/or understand thecauses and effects of the industrial revolution will have to read his articles.

GUNNAR THORVALDSEN

Norwegian Historical Data Centre,University of Tromsø

Norway

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Linda Hantrais (ed.), Family Policy Matters. Responding to family change inEurope. Bristol: The Policy Press, 2004, VIII + 246 pp.

Since the past few years, demographers have been increasingly interested in thepossible effects that family policies have in shaping fertility and family patterns inEurope. Yet, despite the fact that current developments in family change andfamily policies in European countries have underpinned assumptions that thesepolicies and family dynamics are mutually intertwined, demographic inquiriesinto the effects of public policies on family development inEurope have renderedfew and rather inconsistent results. This has led researchers to take a broaderapproach and look at the essence, the content, and cross-national variations offamily policies, the political perception of and the responses to family changes,and the ways in which these policies influence individual family and fertilitydecisions. Viewing issues of family change and policies from this comprehensiveperspective, Family Policy Matters aims to provide deeper insights into theinteractive relationship between family change and family policy (p. 7).

The book draws on three multinational projects carried out between 1994and 2003 and dealing with (a) the concepts and contexts in a cross-nationalcomparison of family policies in Europe, (b) the interaction between socio-demographic changes and social and economic policies across the EuropeanUnion, and (c) the contexts and debates of family policies in European coun-tries as well as the views of policymakers and families in EUmember states andformer accession countries (p. vii). All three issues are taken up in the book,thoughat different intensity.Hantrais first addresses someof themajor changesover the past 40 years in the demographic and family structures that haveoccurred in the 25 countries now constituting the European Union: fertilitydecline and population ageing, the diversification of family forms, and thechanging relationship between family and (female) employment (ChaptersTwo to Four). She provides an overview over developments in these areas aswell as similarities anddifferences amongEUcountries. The author alsodepictsthe ways in which the challenges arising from demographic change have beenperceived on the EU level by different governments and the public in variousEuropean countries. This is followed by a presentation of amendments infamily laws and selected family-welfare areas and an overview of the ways inwhich various European countries have adapted their policies to changingfamily forms (Chapter Five). Hantrais further argues that the ability of gov-ernments to accommodate family policies to changing social needs dependslargely on the legal basis of family policies, such as constitutional provision, theinstitutionalisation of family policies and public acceptance of policy inter-ventions. The illustrations of different legal and institutional constellations offamily policies in Europe (Chapter Six) are complemented by qualitative

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examples of the impact that family policies have on the life of women and menin different European countries and on their decision regarding family,employment, and care (Chapter Seven).Returning to the level of policymakingin the final chapter, Hantrais discusses the current constellation of familypolicies in Europe between familialisation, de-familialisation, and re-famili-alisation (p. 200), the course of family policies, thepossibilities andpotentials ofcreating co-ordinated and convergent family policies in the EU, and theproblems that arise in pursuing such a project (Chapter Eight).

The book thus spans a broad range of aspects relevant to the link betweenfamily policies and demographic change. Themain parts of the book, however,are less concerned with the content of family policies and their response todemographic development, but discuss definitions, concepts, and measure-ments relevant to comparative studies of demographic development, familychange, and family policies. Apart from the explanation of main demographicindicators, such as fertility rates, mortality rates, migration, or populationchanges, Hantrais describes the attempts that have been made by variousinternational organisations to propose common concepts of social and eco-nomic institutions, such as family, household, marriage, divorce, extramaritalbirth, labour force, work, and employment. She further delineates changes inthe legal and administrative definitions that have occurred in individualcountries over time. Hantrais’ depiction of the shifts in common definitionsover time, of the fuzziness of the concepts, and of the national differences indefining, conceptualising and measuring demographic, social, and economicevents underlines not only the problems that researchers face when studyingsocial change from a comparative perspective; it also reminds us that data donot necessarily reflect facts, but are ‘‘social constructs that may only partiallycapture reality’’ (p. 31).

By including aspects of definition, of policy making and policy adminis-tration, andbymaintaining a comparative perspective in dealingwith the topic,the book takes a broader perspective on the relationship between family poli-cies and demographic change than is common of studies in this area. Thisbreadth is the strength of this book, but it also constitutes its major weakness.Many topics are only dealtwith in a cursory and sometimes eclecticmanner andthus lack analytical depth. One must, however, admit that comparative familypolicies are a rather new field of research and there is still a vast vacuumregarding comparative data and research results on family policies. Taking thisinto account, the book can be regarded as a first step that outlines many rele-vant perspectives for future research and as an invitation to continue towardsdeeper in-depth analyses, which is needed to understand the relationship be-tween demographic change and family policies.

GERDA NEYER

Max Planck Institute for Demographic ResearchRostock, Germany

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Daniel Courgeau (ed.), Du groupe a l’individu. Synthese multiniveau. Paris:

INED, 2004, ix + 242 pp.

Inquiries in social sciences are often confronted with data that follow mul-tilevel or nested structures. Multilevel data present statistical problems thatare not easily handled with traditional regression and analyses of varianceprocedures, and many research and policy issues in population studies maybe better addressed from a multilevel perspective. It is gratifying that inrecent decades, statistical procedures for estimating models with multileveldata structures have become commonplace in educational research, socialand biomedical sciences. Researchers have labelled these procedures withvarious terms, including multilevel modelling, hierarchical linear modelling,and random coefficient models.

Daniel Courgeau’s book restates demographic analysis endeavourswithin a multilevel framework, and brings to bear evidence of the multi-level influences on social life and the complexity of the human nature.This general overview of multilevel models with emphasis on multilevelsurvival models addresses the main distinctions between multilevel andtraditional regression analyses, and considers the issues involved in spec-ifying the appropriate levels of aggregation in multilevel analysis includingthe possibility of cross-classified levels. Besides the introductory andconcluding chapters, this book has eight chapters equally divided in twoparts on ‘‘From the macro-micro opposition to multilevel analysis’’ and‘‘A multiple levels analysis.’’ It provides an excellent expository account ofthe contrast of aggregate-level versus individual-level analysis. This bookrepresents a pioneer demographic synthesis of the intricacies and richnessof multilevel analysis of retrospective, cross-sectional, longitudinal, orevent-history data. It should help readers’ better grasp of key features ofmultilevel regression. Specific linear, nonlinear and survival models andtheir corresponding mathematical and statistical equations are presented ina straightforward manner by avoiding unnecessary technical details thatcould sidetrack some readers. This should allow for quick comparisons byreaders and help them to conceptualise and understand better multilevelanalysis. The book is primarily targeted at social sciences scientists, stu-dents and scholars interested in population investigation. I have no doubtthat individuals who are interested in learning multilevel modelling willfind this book to be an invaluable asset. It is also my hope that it willcreate a wider audience for the teaching and use of multilevel methods byFrench-speaking social scientists and demographers.

Because of its genuine efforts at linking the emergence and develop-ment of demographic techniques and methods for analysing cross-sec-

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tional and longitudinal data from its inception in the 17th century to thedevelopment of methods for event-histories and hierarchical data in thelast three decades, this book represents a major step forward in themathematical and statistical applications in social sciences and demog-raphy. It successfully derives the theoretical and empirical foundations ofthe multilevel perspective from scholarly contributions back from thefamous landmark of John Graunt’s Natural and Political ObservationsMentioned in a Following Index, and Made Upon the Bills of Mortality(1662), to current theoretical and methodological developments in thesefields. Courgeau skilfully shows how multilevel modelling as a unifyingapproach is capable of breaking disciplinary boundaries and paradigmsembedded in the treatment of the complexity of human stochastic pro-cesses as well as the dynamics of multiple levels of population hetero-geneities. For instance, in multilevel modelling, interest may focus onlearning how the level-1 dependent variable demonstrates variability atmultiple levels of a hierarchy, on cross-level inferences, such as learningwhether family-level or community-level factors interact with individual-level predictors to affect the outcome of interest. One of the didacticfeatures of this book is the detailed interpretation of each coefficient andvariance component estimated including cross-level interactions. Suchinterpretation will help readers who are unfamiliar with multilevelanalysis to understand better the substantive importance of statisticalfindings. This is especially important if one uses centering for the variousmultilevel predictors as it directly affects interpretation of coefficients andvariance components, since centering predictors can offer many inter-pretational benefits in complex regression analyses such as that foundwith multilevel analyses.

While Daniel Courgeau should be commanded for his rigoroustreatment of multilevel analysis in this book, his efforts complementthose of previous methodologists and are not meant to be the definitiveword on what is required for multilevel studies. Rather, the purpose ofthis book is to provide researchers and scholars who are unfamiliar withthese models with a basic framework for understanding and evaluatingmultilevel analyses. The conceptual and methodological complexities ofmultilevel modelling remains a challenge, especially in a number of areaswhere much progress is needed, including conceptual analysis andassumptions, multilevel survey design and data needs, sample sizes ofgroups in multilevel estimation procedures. First, although a number oftheoretical perspectives are well advanced by now and the basic statis-tical methods for multilevel modelling in the literature are well synthe-sized in this book, an area where much progress is needed concerns thedesign of multilevel surveys and data needs for empirical specification ofmodels and testing of theories and assumptions. Most past surveys have

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not been designed with the explicit aim of supporting multilevel model-ling, and existing textbooks on multilevel modelling provide only scantyguidance as to the design of multilevel surveys, for instance, of children,families and communities that are at the heart of most populationinvestigations and policies. This makes it difficult to address the mostimportant yet unresolved research issue in this area, namely the devel-opment of an understanding of the causal effects of postulated risk/protective factors of outcomes under investigation. Second, the issue ofsample sizes in multilevel studies is not a trivial one. In a two-levelmodel used for illustrations in this book, estimating the model’sparameters is more problematic where there are small numbers of level-2units (e.g., table 4.3 of chapter 4 and table 7.1 of chapter 7). Oneproblem concerns the number of level-2 predictors that can be includedin the model. With multiple random coefficients (e.g., slopes and inter-cept) for example, it is not as clear how to count the number of level-2observations against each possible level-2 equation, because of the pos-sibility of correlated outcomes and multicollinearity both within andbetween equations. A common rule of thumb in regression analysis is tohave a ratio of at least 10 observations per predictor. A second problemconcerns the method used to estimate the model, and there has beenconsiderable debate about the efficiency of maximum likelihood (ML)estimation under less than ideal sampling conditions. More importantly,when the number of level-2 units is small, the error variance is likely tobe underestimated, resulting in standard error estimates that are toosmall, and a greater likelihood of committing Type I errors (i.e., falselyrejecting the null hypothesis), since confidence intervals and hypothesistests in both full information maximum likelihood and restricted maxi-mum likelihood are conditional on the accuracy of the point estimates ofthe variance and covariance parameters. These weaknesses of the MLmethods can be corrected by the Bayesian approach to the estimation ofvariances and covariances in situations where the data are less than idealor the number of groups is small, but the Bayesian approach is relativelycomplicated and the underlying theory is not fully accessible to mostresearchers, whereas ML methods are readily available. Setting asidecost, it is possible to provide some general guidelines for determiningsample size in multilevel studies. In general, for smaller samples (e.g.,N<800), there is less bias in designs involving relatively more level-2 units and fewer subjects per unit, than in sample designs involvingfewer units and more subjects per units. Because of the complexity indetermining variance-explained measures in multilevel models, generallyagreed-upon methods for calculating scale-free effect-size indices are notyet readily available. Finally, there is a broad range of intriguing theo-retical topics that could be emphasized in the conceptualisation and

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empirical specifications of multilevel models of social life and humancomplexities. These include among others, important theoretical ques-tions dealing with logic (e.g., what is the logical structure of socialcausation multilevel models), semantics (e.g., what is the factual contentof social causation of multilevel models), epistemology (e.g., what is therelation between a social observation and the multilevel propositions thatrepresent it) or ethics (e.g., is research on level-specific and cross-levelvariabilities embodied in multilevel modelling morally neutral?). Theseare some of the areas in which my hope is for much progress in the nearfuture.

Courgeau’s volume is a neatly written book on mathematical and statis-tical applications in population studies that I have no hesitation recom-mending for advanced training and research in demography as well as forscholars unfamiliar with multilevel modelling. It firmly establishes what wehave been advocating in classroom and research settings, namely thatmathematical statistics married with theoretical and empirical representa-tions of population processes is a necessary ingredient for widening thefrontiers of demography as a discipline.

BARTHELEMY KUATE-DEFO

University of MontrealCanada

Tim Dyson, Robert Cassen, Leela Visaria (eds.) , Twenty-First Century India:

Population, Economy, Human Development, and the Environment, New York:

Oxford University Press Inc., 2004, XXII + 414 pp.

Twenty-First Century India provides an integrated assessment of India’spopulation, development, and environmental issues and challenges. It is amuch needed, welcome addition to the scholarship.

The book is a collection of 14 papers covering three broad areas—popula-tion, human and economic development, and food and the environment. Thesechapters take stock of the current situation andmake projections over the next20-25 years. In addition, an overview chapter summarizes main results of thebook and a concluding chapter discusses implications for policy.

Chapters on population issues discuss the past, present, and future ofpopulation growth, and trends in fertility, morbidity, mortality, migration,and urbanization. Significant achievements in reducing birth and death ratesin the last decades are highlighted, but these are seen as inadequate. Thesechapters identify reasons for a less than satisfactory performance, and discussmany remaining and emerging challenges, such as widespread malnutri-tion, growing HIV/AIDS, and double burden of communicable and

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non-communicable diseases. State-level population projections are carriedout indicating a likely addition of some 400 million people to India’s pop-ulation by 2026. These projections are the backbone of the discussions aboutdevelopmental and environmental issues discussed in the following chapters.

Chapters on human and economic development discuss progress andchallenges related to education, poverty, employment, and the economy. It isillustrated that progress on these fronts has been divergent, with better-offstates having greater improvements. Even under optimistic assumptions, theprojections indicate future increases in unemployment and large numbers ofpoor in 2026. The role of population growth in intensifying these challengesand opportunities provided by declining fertility and resulting ‘‘demographicbonus’’ are discussed. Poor economic management, heavy subsidies forelectricity and water, and weak institutions and infrastructure are highlightedas major obstacles to development. Not the lack of good policies, but theirpoor implementation is seen as the main obstacle.

Chapters on the environmental issues focus on food production, energyconsumption, solid waste management, air pollution, water availability andquality, and common property resources. Obviously, there are many otherimportant environmental issues, such as climate change and habitat loss, thatdo not receive due attention, but that is unavoidable. These chapters illustratethat a growing population coupled with changing lifestyles and diversifyingpatterns of resource use will increase pressures on natural resources and theenvironment. Energy use and associated pollution are projected to grow con-siderably, so are problems of urbanwaste, transport, sanitation, andwater andair pollution. Inmany cases, these problems have already grown beyond ‘‘boththe absorptive capacity of nature and the handling capacity of institutions.’’Common property resources in many rural regions are severely stressed. In thecase of food the outlook is more positive. Despite considerable populationgrowth, limited availability of new cultivable lands, and widespread landdegradation, food prospects are projected to improve slowly over the years,although undernutrition is projected to remain a considerable problem.

It is argued that many of these environmental challenges are manageable ifproper policies are pursued. The editors even go to the extent of stating that‘‘India’s growth rate would be higher not lower with the environmentalpolicies in place.’’ This may be possible for economic growth, but in someareas there may already be irreversible damage to the environment (e.g., lossof plant and animal species), which cannot be fixed no matter what envi-ronmental policies are pursued.

Overall, the present condition and projected trends in population, devel-opment, and the environment are considered highly unsatisfactory andunsustainable, unless a number of corrective policy measures and actions areundertaken. One of the major cross-cutting themes is that there is wide varia-tion in states’ ability to deal with various challenges, which will impact them

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differentially in the coming decades. People in the poorer, less developed stateslikeBihar andUttarPradeshwill be impactedmore severely than those inbetteroff states like Punjab andMaharashtra. It is argued that strategies to deal withvarious population and developmental challenges need to be sensitive to state-level variations. Large inequalities in conditions of people by urban/ruralresidence, regions, and social groups are highlighted throughout.

Themost important conclusion of the book is that, despite projected growthin the population, it is possible for India to grow economically while improvinghealthof its citizens andprotecting its environment. In general, the book tries togive a positive, optimistic spin to many of the otherwise worrisome scenarios.

The book identifies a range of obstacles that are preventing appropriatepolicies and programs from being implemented or implemented efficiently.These include poor governance, inefficient use of resources, improper pricingand regulation, misguided subsidies, and inappropriate and inadequateinvestments in infrastructure and production technologies. Other majorobstacles include lack of interdepartmental coordination and lack of politicalwill. Many of the population and developmental challenges require long-termplanning and funding commitments whereas politicians’ tend to have shorttime horizons. A much more aggressive, multi-pronged approach is recom-mended to remove some of these obstacles and address the challenges. Onlytime will tell whether and to what extent these prescribed corrective policymeasures will be implemented or will succeed.

One of the major strengths of the book is that it explains many complexphenomena and their interlinkages in a non-technical, easy-to-read format.However, the writing style could be more efficient. The book often usesrepetition to achieve emphasis, and occasionally includes some unnecessarydetails, which tend to over-explain things. Some of this could have beenavoided, but this does not detract from the overall merit of the book.

The book is written primarily for an academic audience, but given its coverageof issues and accessible text, it merits attention from anyone interested in anauthoritative discussion of population and developmental challenges in India. Thebook is replete with program options and policy prescriptions to deal with thesechallenges, so the program managers and policymakers should also find it useful.Although the book is written in the Indian context, many of the issues and chal-lenges discussed are also common in other developing societies. I strongly rec-ommend Twenty-First Century India as a general reference book and as anintroductory textbook for undergraduate and graduate classes for the next 10 yearsor so. Beyond this timeframe it would require major updating and reevaluating.

VINOD MISHRA

Demographic and Health Research Division, ORC MacroCalverton, MD,

USA

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