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Bond Market Update
Samuel Daily Fixed Income Research
Economics-Exchange Rate-Fixed Income
Economic & Fixed Income Analysis 7 September 2021
www.samuel.co.id Page 1 of 3
Berita Global
IHS Markit Germany Construction PMI bulan Agustus turun ke 44.6 dari
47.1 di bulan sebelumnya – Investing.
U.K. Construction Purchasing Managers Index turun ke 55.2 (konsensus
56.9) dari 58.7 di Juli – Investing.
China makin membuka pasar keuangan mereka untuk investor asing dan
mendorong integrasi pasar keuangan global, termasuk mendorong
skema Shanghai-London Stock Connect – Shanghai Daily.
Saudi Aramco memangkas harga jual minyak mereka setidaknya USD1
per barel untuk kawasan Asia – Reuters.
El Salvador akan melegalkan bitcoin pada hari ini (7/9) – Reuters.
Berita Domestik
Indonesia dan Tiongkok memulai implementasi local currency
settlement – Bank Indonesia.
PPKM Jawa-Bali diperpanjang hingga 13 September 2021, sementara
luar Jawa-Bali diperpanjang hingga 20 September 2021 – Kontan.
BLT untuk PKL hingga Rp 1.2 juta segera cair – Kontan
Pemerintah menerbitkan PP 93/2021 tentang PPh baru pengalihan
partisipasi interes kegiatan hulu migas – Bisnis Indonesia.
Kementerian ESDM mengumumkan harga batu bara acuan September
2021 sebesar USD150.03 per ton – Bisnis Indonesia.
BI mencatat QRIS telah digunakan oleh 9.4 juta merchant sampai dengan
6 September 2021 – Investor Daily.
Analisa
Lemahnya data PMI Jerman dan Inggris serta data tenaga kerja AS di
minggu lalu diharapkan menunda rencana tapering Fed ataupun ECB
setidaknya hingga akhir tahun.
Implementasi LCS Indonesia-China diharapkan menjaga stabilitas Rupiah
dan menjaga permintaan komoditas ekspor Indonesia ke China.
Kami perkirakan yield SUN 10 Tahun akan bergerak turun dan berada diantara
6.03% – 6.13% pada Selasa (7/9).
Rekomendasi : FR0076; FR0079; FR0086; FR0087; FR0090.
Indikator Terkini
Sources: Bloomberg and Samuel Research Team
(2021)
Latest H-1 Daily YTD
Policy Rate
US 0.25 0.25 0.00
EU 0.00 0.00 0.00
England 0.10 0.10 0.00
Japan -0.10 -0.10 0.00
China 4.35 4.35 0.00
Indonesia 3.50 3.50 (0.25)
Exchange Rate
Dollar Index 92.04 92.04 0.00 2.33
EUR/USD 1.19 1.19 (0.08) (2.82)
GBP/USD 1.38 1.39 (0.25) 1.21
JPY/USD 0.01 0.01 (0.14) (6.06)
CNY/USD 0.15 0.15 (0.04) 1.06
USD/IDR 14,223 14,263 (0.28) 1.23
10 Year Government Bond Yields
US 1.32 1.32 0.00 0.41
EU -0.37 -0.36 (0.01) 0.20
England 0.69 0.72 (0.02) 0.50
Japan 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.03
China 2.83 2.83 0.00 (0.31)
SUN Yields
1 Year 2.76 2.76 0.00 (0.47)
2 Year 3.91 3.95 (0.04) 0.18
5 Year 5.03 5.02 0.00 (0.14)
10 Year 6.09 6.09 (0.00) 0.22
30 Year 6.79 6.79 (0.01) (0.17)
Indonesia CDS 5
Year66.72 66.75 (0.05) (1.57)
Corporate Bond Yields AAA Rated
1 Year 3.75 3.74 0.01 (1.44)
2 Year 4.98 4.99 (0.01) (0.64)
5 Year 6.20 6.17 0.03 (0.80)
10 Year 7.40 7.40 0.00 (0.21)
ICBI 328.06 327.78 0.08 4.39
IndoBex -Govt 321.78 321.51 0.28 4.12
IndoBex-Corp 357.66 357.50 0.16 7.38
Domestic InterBank Money Market
INDONIA 2.80 2.79 0.01 (0.24)
JIBOR 1 Bulan 3.45 3.48 (0.02) (0.26)
IHSG (Jakarta
Composite Index)
6,126.94 6,126.92 0.00 2.47
Changes (%)Indicators
Closed
Kalender Ekonomi
Date Release Country Data Period Survey Prior
7 Sep 21 CN Trade Balance (USD) Ags 51.05B 56.59B
7 Sep 21 ID FX Reserves (USD) Ags 137.30B
7 Sep 21 GE German ZEW Economic Sentiment Sep 30.0 40.4
Note: JN=Japan - US=United States - CN=China - EU=European Union - GE=Germany - GB=England - ID=Indonesia Sources : Investing and Samuel Research Team (2021)
Fikri C Permana Senior Economist [email protected]
Bond Market Update
Samuel Daily Fixed Income Research
Economics-Exchange Rate-Fixed Income
Economic &Fixed Income Analysis 7 September 2021
www.samuel.co.id Page 2 of 3
Chart 1. Yield US Treasury 10 Tahun (%) dan Dollar Index (Index) Chart 2. Yield Curve Indonesia (%)
Sources : Bloomberg and Samuel Research Team (2021)
Sources : Bloomberg and Samuel Research Team (2021)
Chart 3. Yield Spread UST dan SUN Antar Tenor (bps) Chart 4. Yield Obligasi Korporasi Rating AAA (%)
Sources : Bloomberg and Samuel Research Team (2021)
Sources : Bloomberg and Samuel Research Team (2021)
Chart 5. IHSG (index) dan Yield SUN 10 Tahun (%) Chart 6. Aliran Dana Asing di SBN dan IHSG (Triliun Rp)
Sources : Bloomberg and Samuel Research Team (2021)
Sources : Bloomberg and Samuel Research Team (2021)
88.00
90.00
92.00
94.00
96.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
US 10 Yr (LHS) Dollar Index (RHS)
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
1 Yr 2 Yr 5 Yr 10 Yr 30 Yr
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
1 Yr 2 Yr 5 Yr 10 Yr
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
4500.00
5000.00
5500.00
6000.00
6500.00
7000.00
IHSG (LHS) SUN 10 YR (RHS)
1.30 1.52
3.16
0.00 0.00
0.55
0.04
(0.09)
0.21
0.37
31-Aug-21 1-Sep-21 2-Sep-21 3-Sep-21 4-Sep-21 5-Sep-21 6-Sep-21
SBN IHSG
Bond Market Update
Samuel Daily Fixed Income Research
Economics-Exchange Rate-Fixed Income
Economic & Fixed Income Analysis 7 September 2021
www.samuel.co.id Page 3 of 3
Research Team
Suria Dharma Head of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer Staples [email protected] +6221 2854 8148
Lionel Priyadi Macro Equity Strategist [email protected] +6221 2854 8854
Fikri C Permana Senior Economist [email protected] +6221 2854 8144
William Mamudi, CFTe, CMT Technical Analyst [email protected] +6221 2854 8382
Muhamad Alfatih, CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor [email protected] +6221 2854 8129
Yosua Zisokhi Cement , Cigarette,Paper, Plantation,Telco Infra, Chemical [email protected] +6221 2854 8387
Dessy Lapagu Aviation, Coal, Metal, Retail [email protected] +6221 2854 8392
Olivia Laura Anggita Healthcare, Property [email protected] +6221 2854 8346
M. Farras Farhan Media, Poultry, Oil & Gas [email protected] +6221 2854 8346
Calista Muskitta Retail [email protected] +6221 2854 8331
Pebe Peresia Consumer Goods [email protected] +6221 2854 8339
Ashalia Fitri Research Associate [email protected] +6221 2854 8163
Equity Institutional Team
Benny Bambang Soebagjo Head of Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8312
Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8399
Anthony Yunus Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8314
Henry Sutanto Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8329
Fachruly Fiater Sales Trader [email protected] +6221 2854 8325
Lucia Irawati Sales Trader [email protected] +6221 2854 8173
Suryanti Salim Sales Trader [email protected] +6221 2854 8173
Muhammad Faisal Dealer [email protected] +6221 2854 8173
Private Wealth Management
Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8380
Clarice Wijana PWM Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8395
Gitta Wahyu Retnani PWM Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8365
Wahyudi Budiyono Dealer [email protected] +6221 2854 8152
Fixed Income Sales Team
R. Virine Tresna Sundari Head of Fixed Income [email protected] +6221 2854 8170
Rudianto Nugroho Fixed Income Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8306
Sany Rizal Keliobas Fixed Income Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8337
Julio Simangunsong Fixed Income Sales [email protected] +6221 28548384
Equity Retail / Online Team
Joseph Soegandhi Head of OLT [email protected] +6221 2854 8872
Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading [email protected] +6221 2854 8372
Damargumilang Head of Equity Retail [email protected] +6221 2854 8309
Salt World Widjaja Retail Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8163
Michael Alexander Equity Retail [email protected] +6221 2854 8163
Albertha Palma Equity Assistant [email protected] +6221 2854 8163
DISCLAIMERS :Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in th is research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sourc es believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
