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8/11/2019 Boeotian Population History
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8/11/2019 Boeotian Population History
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approached again from the end of the 20th century AD
4
, but even as recent as
1981,
wi th a
census total of125,849, not achieved. The intervening Medieval era, according to
f ragmen ta ry
sources and the localized detailed record from our own in t ens ive surveys in several
d i f fe ren t
dis t rict s of north , cent ral and east Boeot ia, m ust have been characterized by levels way below
those even of Late Ant iqui ty.
5
As for the four hundred years of Ot tom an Turk i sh ru l e (15th to
early 19th century), we a re fortunate now topossess reasonably full statistics fo r individual
vi l lages and the two towns of Thebes and Lebadeia between 1466 and 1687 - thanks to the
9999pioneering research of Machiel Kiel in the Ot tom an Im perial tax
arch ives .
6
According to
m y
local izat ion of nam ed vi l lages w ithin the ancient borders of Boeot ia, the peak of Ot tom an-era
population
in the
16th century
ADachieveda
m a x im u m
of
around 40,000population (the
two
regional towns
included),
m erely one quarter o f the C lass ical G reek peak . I shal l return later to
these com parat ive f igu res , to ask how w e should interpret such regional den s i ties .
In conclus ion, the C lass ical G reek peak seems to surpass all other periods , with the Late
Rom an on purely archaeological evidence not far below, and the rem aining prehis toric and
historic
phases
being considerablybeneath
these two
high density occupations
of the
region
(on
the
evidence
of
intensive survey).
Do
Site Numbers
and
Sizes Translate Directly into
Population
Numbers?
My
m ore tricky question relates to the absolute validity of usin g archaeological s ite
numbers fo r
inferring
relative or
even
absolute
populations
- an issue which affects mos t
pressingly
th e
prehistoric
periods when no meaningful overall population
records exist from
texts, and as noted above, LateAntiquity, where
also
oursources are inadequate in this
respect.
Regard ing
prehistory,
the Palaeolithic and
Mesolithic
m i ll enn ia surv ive on ly as t he m eres t
pal im pses ts of archaeological evidence, and i t i s cus tom ary to deploy ethnographic an alogies to
m odel likely hum an
densities
from com parable environm ents - but this wil l resul t in levels below
anyth ing known or in fe r red from all subsequent historic phases.
7
If
we now turn our at tent ion to later prehis tory - the Neol i thic and Bronze Ages , where
archaeological data and research at tent ion are both r ich, an un dou bted lyfalse sense of conf idence
has been engendered by the seemingly dense d i s t r ibu t ion maps one can make
from
regional
catalogues such as that produced by John Fossey for Boeot ia, or Aegean-w ide catalogues such
as theHope Simpson & Dickinson Gazetteer.
8
As I have discussed in a previous paper -also
in
relat ion to JohnFossey's and our ow n work in Boeotia
9
, Neol i thic and Bronze Age s i te m aps
fo r most parts of Greece - even those w i th intens ive survey resul t s - can in our present s tate of
know ledge usua l ly on ly ind ica te a reas o f t he l andscape wh ere hum an
activi ty
was intense in each
4
Sauerwein
1991.
5
C f. Bintl iff
2000a.
6
Kiel 1997,
cf.
Bintliff
1995.
7
Cf. the
t hough t fu l
discussion inPerls 2001.
8
Fossey 1988, Hope Sim pson & Dickinson 1979.
9
Bintliff2000b.
T h e A n c i e n t W o r l d
36.1(2005)
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8/11/2019 Boeotian Population History
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J O HNBINTLIFF
ancient occupation sites, whichwe have termed 'sitehaloes', and
which
appear
to have
been
created by natural weathering,
plough
disturbance, and
rubbish
disposal or garden-cultivation
by
the
past inhabitants
of
these sites.
As
ceramics ,
in
theory
at
least these carpets
are
datable,
but
naturally
th e
condit ion
of
sherds incorporated into rubbish andthen
field
m anure , dum ped d irec tly in toth eplough soiland
subsequently tossed around by cult ivation and the weather to the present day, is very poor
compared
to the
sherds
we f ind at the
rural set tlement sites them selves, wh ere freshly-disturbed
levels offer large andrecent ly broken pot tery in good diagnostic condit ion. On e needs ana rm y
of tireless pottery specialists
or a
single genius
to
date
sufficient
of the
offsite
sherds
to
provide
a
stat istically-reliable sam ple of their age. In our case w e were lucky to have th e genius -
Professor John Hayes - whose knowledge of ancient and m e d i e v a l to postmedieval sherds is
unparalleled
in the
ent i re Mediterranean,
and i t was his
success
in
dat ing mos t
of our
offsite
sherds that opened up one of the
major
surprises of the
Boeotia Survey record.
Whilst rural sites
in the
Boeotia Survey area climaxed
in
num bers
in
later Classical
and
Late Rom antimes,th eoffsite carpets around ancient Thespiae city were almost entirelyClassical
Greek; L ate Antiquity played no greater role than Early Rom an or Medieval in their cre ation,
and
that w as very sl ight . I f we follow th e pioneer studies of Near eas tern manuring carpets by
Tony
Wilkinson
15
, then dominant per iods of m anuring should ref lect population pressure on
agricultural product ion. I t now appears that the L ate Rom an period was not such an era. On the
other hand, in the Thespiae c h o r a th e total occupational surface area of Late Roman rural s ites
w as larger than
in
Classical Greek t imes.
Our first explanation for this paradox has been kn own to us since themid-1980s,an d that
w as th e fate of urban s i tes , which went in the opposite direction to rural s ites: if L a t e R o m a n
rural sett lem ent w asdenserandlarger than Class ical Greek t im es ,incont rast La te Rom an towns
an d
vil lages were generally smaller
- or
even abandoned
-
compared
to
their flourishing size
an d
n u m b e r
in
Classical Greek
t imes .
16
This might suggest that
t o t a l
urban plus rural population
w asconsiderably lower for Late Antiquity , hence there was no need for intensive agricultural
m a n u r i n g . Our later ref inementsto population calculat ions, however, for therural hinterlandof
ancient
Thespiae
17
,
extrapolating th e Late Roman s i te area and densit ies to the ent i re c h o r a
come up wi th a c o m b i n e d urban and rural s ite area total - and by implication - a total set t led
population,
at
Classical Greek levels.
Atthispoint
a
second refinement
in
intensive survey
can be
deployed
to
help resolve
th e
paradox.This reveals a further important anomaly in the Boeotian rural siterecord: there is a
curious disparity in the assem blages typical fo r Classical Greek an d Late Roman rural s i tes . If
th e
f o r m e r
h as
every th ing
y ou
expect
of
domest ic agricul tural life,
th e
latter class contrasts
a
m u c h
larger site
area witha highly-im poverished range of pottery types: roof t i les , s torage and
transport amphorae form the vast bulk of Late Antique rural s ite finds, with a notable poverty
15
Wilkinson
1989.
16
Bin t l i f f
&
Snodgrass
1988.
17
Bin t l i f f,
Howard
&Snodgrass
inpress.
8
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EX PLO R A TIO NS
IN
BO EO TIA N PO PU LA TIO N HISTOR Y
of evidence
fo r
food preparat ion
and
consumpt ion
and
other varied farm activit ies
(a n
observation
found
on
other recent intens ive survey s , such
a s
M e t h a n a ,
L .
Foxhal l ,
p e r s . com.).
At least for the one sector of our Boeot ia Survey wh ichw ehavefully analyzedhitherto,
the south
c h o r a
of Thespiae city, w e now believe that the rural estate centers were largely em pty
of resident personnel. A skeleton
force
of estate m anagers and slaves or other full-t im e
main tenance staff oversaw large complexesof roofed storage facil i t ies, but the work force w e
believe was draw n from paid or dependent labor resident in the regional tow ns and vil lages. The
adoption of the 'agro-town' model
from
Early Modern southern Italy
18
would account for the
discrepancy between site extent anddom estic debris atLate Ro m an rural s i tes , and the absence
of
a
Late Ant ique m anur ing phase
-
total population
w as
indeed
lo w
enough
to
suffice
on
extensive
rather than intens ive fa r ming .
TheComparison ofPopulation Densities inBoeotia
I w ould now l ike to turn to w hatI think is the m ost interes t ing, and potent ially the m ost
significant, set of quest ions con cerning com parative population and land uselevels in a region
such
as
Boeotia, taken
in the
long-term
perspective:
w h a t
do
such densities
tellus
about hum an
ecological relationships,
economic
sustainability,
and
their
roleinsocial
change?
One is im m ediately struck by the historical t im ing of the two highest population levels
fo r Boeotia - ca . 400 BC and then from around 1880 AD onwardstotoday . Broadly-speaking,
all thatw ek n o w a b o u tth erespect ive econom ies of the Classical Greek and Early Modern eras
for Boeotia places the m po les apar t. Classical Boeotia had a neg ligible export o f its prim arily
agricultural products an d a low export of i ts m etal ores, so that i ts econom y was d om inated by
auto-consumption. Early Modern Boeotia
had a
g row ing agricultural
and
indu strial expo rt sector
of con s iderable im portance, s t im ulated l ike m ostof late 19th centuryAD Greece byexpanding
m o d e r n
communica t ion and com m erc ia l iza tion syst em s em anating from Western Europe
19
,
al thougham ajor par tof itsproduction st il l rem ainedinmore tradit ional regional productionand
consumption.
20
A continual trend to the present in Boeotia has been a greater and greater
rel iance
o n
agricultural exports
a nd
related
o r
un relatedfactory em ploym ent boos t ing ever l a rger
regional populations.
21
The
' fa i lu re '
to
reach
or
exceed Classical Greek population levels
in
Early Modern t imes
is due to
waves
of
emigration
out of the
region, whether abroad
or to the
m a j o r
citiesof G reece - primari ly Athens . In cont rast , during An t iqui ty, Boeotian involvem ent
in the founding of
Archaic
and
Classical colonies
is
very sl ight,
nor
were Boeot ians
a
m a j o r
element in the
populat ion diaspora caused
by
Alexander 's colonial act ivi t ies
in the new
Hellenist ic provinces of the Middle East .
If we relate the probable Classical Greek population of Boeotia to the m odern calculat ion
18
Blok 1969;
Ikeguchi 1999-2000.
19
Asch enb renn er 1972.
20
Sauerwein
1991.
21
Slaughter
&Kas imis
1986.
8/11/2019 Boeotian Population History
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JO HN
BI N TL I FF
of cult ivable land,
an d
est im ates
of
esta te s ize , crop yie lds
and food
needs
fo r
ancient t im es,
it
becom es apparen t tha t Boeo t ia a round 400 BC m us t have been a t the m ax im um l im i ts o f
agricul tural potent ia l , and for any length of t im e, w ell beyon d the l im i ts of
sustainabil ity.
22
Unti l la te Hellenis t ic t im es we h ave no evidence to suggest that the region w as a regular
impor te r
of food , so w e
have conf idence
in
c la im ing tha t
food
product ion
w as
un der great s t ra in
to feed
resident
regional
population.
It is exactly in keeping with
these
calculations that our
discovery regarding the s ingle peak of in tensive m anu ring in the Thespiae coun tryside, durin g
Classical Greek t im es,
finds i ts
exp lana t ion :
i t was o v e r p o p u l a t i o n
that drove
th e
people
of
Thespiaet o
in tens ive m anur ing
of the
ent i re landscape wi th in
2- 3
k i lom e te rs
of the
urban cen te r.
Following
on
from this scenario,
th e
collapse
of
regional populat ions
in the
fol lowing period
of
Late Hellenis t ic to Early Rom an Im peria l tim es can reasonably be associa ted, to a
m a j or
extent
in ou r v i ew, w i th the b reakdow n o f foodprod uct ion consequent on rapidly-decl in ingfood yields
from exhausted soils.
23
Our firstprovis ional conclusion then, i s that the c losest m atching for the 400 BC regional
population, that dem ographic boom running
from
around 1900 AD to today , is fortu i tousand
no t
the
product
of
s imi la r mode ls
of
land
use and
e c o n o m y
-
indeed
the
opposite:
one - the
Modern - sustainable (a t least in the m e d i u m to longterm), and the other com plete ly not so.
Em igration out of the region can be seen as a sa fe ty-valve on local populat ion grow th in Boeotia
f rom
the late 19th century, and i t continues today on a lesser scale.
In
this context
we
would wish
to
suggest that Roman
to
Late Roman populat ions were
associated w i th ye t ano the r k ind o f l and use and econom y, where ex tens ive f ann ing l i nked to
large estates
w as
prominen t ,
an d
land
fa r from
max ima l ly
in use -
hence also
a
sustainable
economy.W e a re
current ly invest igat ing
th e
balance
of
export versus regional
autoconsumption
fo r
th e
R o m a n -L a te R o m a n ce n t ur ie s ,
but i t is
general ly argued that
th e
villa estates very
common in La te Roman
Greece
would have been significantly oriented towards export of
foods tuffs
for the im peria l ci ties and the Rom an
frontier
a rm ies , a s we l l a s prov id ing
food
fo r
their work forcesandregional towns . We would provisionally postulatea low total population
with a h igh degree of specia l izat ion in export crops.
Our current archaeological su rvey data w ould suggest (a l thoug h the evidence is s t il l
accumulating)thatfol lowing a l ike ly dem ograph ic dec l ine dur ing the t roub led pos t-Rom an 'Dark
Ages ' (7th to 9 th centur ies AD), the recovery of Boeotia and other Mainland Greek regions
dur ingthe 10th-12thcenturies AD (the Middle Byzantine revivalofgreece),saw the population
of tow ns and v i llages g row toge the r . There was p robab ly a dom inance o f reg iona l
au toconsum pt ion , and a minor expor t p roduc tion o f food and other produ cts (s ilk being kno w n
fo r Thebes)
for the
w i d e rEmpire.
A n y
food exports were proba bly associated w i th large pr ivate
o r m onas t ic e s ta te -owners , r a the r than peasan t-p roducers . The Prank i sh -Crusader dom ina t ion
which fol lowed in the13th-15th centuriesAD will probably have been organized in a sim i lar
fash i on . Our s urvey data and l im i ted h is tor ic sources point to populat ions in both town an d
22
Bintliff
1997b.
23
Bintliff &
Snodgrass1985.
10
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EX P L O R A T I O N S IN BOEOTIAN POPULATION HISTORY
country
increasing in the
long-term
f r o m900 to the
1340s
AD,mirroringtherestofEurope.
24
Overall,
however,
the relationship of
these Medieval populations remained
wellbelow
regional
maximum
carrying-capacity,
even if wetooka
more sustainable level
for
that, well
below the
overpopulation of ca. 400 BC discussed
earlier.
The
OttomanFlorescence and its
Contribution
to Boeotian Demographic
History
After the heavy toll in local population resulting
from
the Black Death and almost
perpetual warfare and piracy in the later 14th and 15th centuries AD, Boeotia follows the rest
of Europe once more in wi tnes sing dem ographic growth dur ingth e 16th century, s t imulatedby
th e
tolerant
an d
low-tax regim e
of the
P a x
O t t o m a n i c a
-
th e
mos t f l our i sh ing phase
of the
O t toman Turkish
Empire.
25
Evidence from Boeotia an d
Attica
26
agrees with this n ew growth
phase far exceeding Medieval levels, while st i l l fal l ing well short of Classical Greek densit ies:
a
mere
quarter of the level of ca. 400 BC by the late 16th century
A D .
Yet we now reach the
hub of the
debate:
what do these com parative levels indicate for prosperi ty, peasant wel l -being,
economic sa fe ty?
W e
have reasoned that
th e
Class ical G reek farm ers were increas ingly under
pressure of declining yields and o verpopulat ion by late Class ical t im es , and w ere driv en to
ext rem e m easures such as recurrent and m ass ive agricul tural m anuring program s to s tave off
starvation. These an d other m easures ult im ately failed, and the region fell into dem ographic and
apparently severe social decay
27
, paving the way for the abusive exploitation of the fo r mer
peasantry by the owners ofm edium to large
estates
which seems to characterize Rom an tim es .
The
16th century
AD
Ottom an cl im ax population
of
around
40,000
people
is the
product
of a rapid
demographic
growth
from
a severe lowpoint in the late 14th century. Had the series
of linked crises w hich aff l icted the Ot tom an Em pire from the late 16th through the 17th
century
28
not had the effect in m any , but by no m eans al l of it s
provinces,
of creating economic
an d population decline
an d
radical settlem ent re structurin g, could
w e
have expected
a further
growth which m ight have ended in a s im ilar Mal thus ian overpopulat ion to that of 400 BC?
This might seem
to o
speculative
a
question
to
address, since
th e
highest Ottoman level
is only in total a quarter of that suggested for late Classical t ime s. This in itself rules out
population pressure and land exhaustion as significan t factors in the o v e r a l l 17th century
Ottoman decline (and calculated population densit ies inother provinces , fo r example
Anatolia
29
or
Palestine
30
, are in
agreement with
fa r
from m axim al leve ls ). Actua l ly , how ever ,
th e
details
24
B int l i f f 2 0 0 0 a -b .
25
Kiel 1997.
26
Kiel 1987.
27
Bintl iff & Snodgrass 1985.
28
Inalcik
1972.
29
Faroqhi
1990.
30
Htteroth1975.
11
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JOHN
BINTLIFF
of
th e
Boeotian Ottom an vi l lage populat ions reveal
a
fascinat ing var iabi l i ty
and one
w i th
a
very
clear
historical explanation.
In
1466,
our
f i r s t -known dfier
or
tax-register
fo r
Boeot ia groups vi l lages in to Greek
Christian an d newly-created Albanian im m igrant ( f ig . 1). The latter are n um erous , ub iqu itous
but al l
sma l l
in
size,
an d
this probably reflects
th e
extended
kin
social units
f u n d a m e n t al
in
this
sem i-pastora l society , whose m em bers
had
been invited
to
recolonize large areas
of
Southern
Mainland Greece abandoned
in the
14th
to
early 15th centuries
due to the
Black Death
and
cont inual w ar fare
an d
piracy.
31
Th e
other group,
th e
Chris t ian Greek vi l lages,
are
f e w ,
focussed in their d is t r ibut ion, and m ost ly m uch larger . They are old foundat ions, on or near
settlem ents in existence since Byzantine and
Prankish
t im es. They su rvived the la te Medieval
crisis because they
are
usual ly upland refuges wh e r e
th e
Greek populat ion nucleated
for
protection. When, however, the settled conditions of the P a x O t t o m a n i c a inaugurated over a
century of demograph ic g rowth , and al l the Boeotian villages rose in size, these large refuge
villages - even if growing at the same rate as the small Albanian - kept their size differential and
became very large .
How
large
w as
that?
Let us focus on the
mos t p rominen t members
of
this group (f ig .
2).
P
AN AY
A (west-central Boeotia, see figs . 1-2)
This
village
is the
natural successor
to the anc ien t
large village
or 'comopolis' of
Ascra ,
v ia
possible
cont inuity through the post-Rom an Dark A ges and a Byzant ine and Prankish v i l lage of
only moderate
size.
I t fo rm ed , how ever , a refuge village for regional Greek populations in the
14th century
an d
took
off
dur ing
th e first
part
of the
Ottom an period.
Th e
ear ly Ottom an
settlem ent w as deserted in the 17th century and its size at its late 16th century peak has
been
calculated through
o ur
gr idded surface
survey
32
, to
have been a lmo st exactly that
of theancient
village - some 11hectares. Our theoretical estimate for such a settled area in Antiquity would
suggest
a
population
of
around 1200-1300people ,
an d
rather satisfyingly
th e
Ottom an regis ter
fo r
Pan aya 's peak in 1570 is reason ably close to that (som e 1075 residents). It m ust be added,
how ever , that there are m any m ore rura l sa te ll ite s i tes around Ascra inGreek an dRo m a n t im e s
than in the Medieval and Post-Medieval per iod, so that the to ta l Val ley populat ion was
signi f icant ly m ore e levated
in
Ant iqu i ty than d ur ing
th e
16th century
AD.
Nonetheless ,
for our
purposes th e rem arkable d iscovery is that in the Valley of the Muses local populat ion densi ty
is
wel l
on the way to
achieving
our
a n ci en t m a x i m u m , i m p l y in g v e ry full land
use and a
str ik ing
contrast
to the
ma jo r i ty
o f
Boeot ia , where densi t ies were less than
on e
quarter
of
Classical
dens i ty .
So far we h a v e no t analyzed our data for the 'offsite ' pottery
from
th e Valley of the
Muses to tes t i f there are m anur in g phases a t o thertunes than the single period around 400 BC
evidenced
in the
south h inter land
of
Thespiae . Signif icant ly , a l though there
is
also
a
Medieva l
31
Bintliff 1995.
32
C f. Bintliff 2000a.
12
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EXPLORATIONS IN
BOEOTIAN POPULATION HISTORY
and late Turkish replacem ent v i llageon and near theancient ci tyofThespiae- Erimikastro, its
populat ion was always a m ere
fract ion
of that for the giant 100 hectare tow n of Class ical Greek
times.
Up to 400
residents
are
registered
in the
census
in the
17th century
AD,
al though sur face
survey suggests thePrankish 13th century AD vi l lage was m aybe twice as large. C lassical Greek
Thespiae, however , should have contained something l ike
12,000
people, and no repeat of i t s
associated m axim um intens i ty land use was requi red in Medieval-Postm edieval t im es .
VRASTAMITIS
(ModernIpsilanti, west-central Boeotia)
This i s another large Ea r ly Ottom an per iod vi l lage w hich develops from a precedingPrankish
village,
which in turn isassociated with the largest andm ost imposing Crusader feudal tower
in
Boeotia.
It may occupy the
niche
of an ancient dependent
village
of nearby Haliartus city
although our surface survey at modern Haliartus also found there a Byzant ine, Prankishand
ear ly Ottom an set tlemen t(Harmena).Fromthe com parativesizes,how ever , one can seethatby
the 16th centurytheancient roles h avebeen reversed, withVrastamitesas the domi nantdistrict
center for the ancient ter r i tory of Hal iar tus and the sett lem ent by the ancient ci ty m uch less
f lour i shing. At i t s peak Vrastam i tes has alm ost 900 res idents (1540 AD ), wh i ls t the vi l lage by
ancient Hal iar tus only reaches a contem porary m axim um of 280 people. Ancien t Hal iartus m ay
have r eached some4500 res idents around 400 BC .
33
Even com bi ned , Vras tam i tes -Harm ena is
stilla population
focus
on ly a third to a quar ter of the ancient Hal iartus n ucleat ion, and thus not
much elevated over the general rat io of Boeot ian 16thcen tury AD population levels to those of
Classical Greek tim es. Locally, atleast, Vrastam i tes is a settlement of unusual s ize.
KAPRENA (western Boeotia)
On the ancient
acropolis
of the
Classical
city of Chaeronea lies extensive surface potteryof a
large Medieval and Ottoman set t lement . In the 16th century defters this
village
of Kaprenais
another very large G reek Chr i st ian com m uni ty surviving from aPrankish settlem ent. Herethe
larges t 16th century Boeot ian vi l lage (peak 16th century census of some 1445 residents) has
replaced a m oderate-s ized Class ical city on i t s own s i te . The area ofancient Chaeronea is far
f rom ce r tain, b ut a recent es tim ate suggests som e
2000-3000
people for Classical Greek
times.
34
Once again, al thou gh m aybe on ly a half of the ca. 400 BC peak, Kaprena in the
Ot toman f lo rescence i s a m a j o r regional nucleat ion considerably above the typical s ize of
contem porary set t lem ents elsewhere in Boeot ia.
W h a t we see then wi th these three refuge villages is that the prosperi ty of the early
Ot toman
era has
encouraged them
to
grow wi thin thei r geographical niches
to a far
higher level
than the res t o f Boeotian rural set t lem ent; not reaching the stressful Class ical Greek peak, but
perhaps i nd i cat ing a t r a jec tory tha t m i ght have t aken them there i n the longer - te rm . A scra a t
33
Bintliff 1997b.
34
Bintli ff 1997b.
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J O H NBINTLIFF
least was within reach of expanding to Classical Greek levels within the immediate
f u tu r e ,
by
1570.
Two dif fe ren t Medieval to early Post-medieval village trajectories have been identified:
1) Medieval villages which were abandoned in the 14th-15th century crisis and were
resettled by small Albanian clans, then grew steadily to the late 16th century.
2) Medieval villages which acted as refuge nucleations during the
14th-15th
century
crisis, and which grew in the 16thcenturyat the same rate as smaller villages but from a far
higher starting population.
Type
1
villages stop developing around 1570 having only reached
a
quarter
or
less
of
potential human carryingcapacity,type 2 by that date are higher density and seem to be growing
towards
a future
maximization
of
land-use
not far f rom
Classical levels. Panaya/Ascra
and
Erimokastro/Thespiaeillustrate the two types well: the f o r m e ris a large r e f uge village through
the
late
Medieval crisis, whilst the latter is abandoned then and only reappears in the
later
Turkish 17th century. Only
Panaya
is moving towards recovering its Classical population level.
Are
there
any
additional hints that these
'Super'
villages have enhanced activities
to
suit
their status in their 16th century climax? Machiel Kiel has commented on two unusual features
fo r two of the group.
35
Panaya not only constructed ten water-mills (of which we have
rediscovered
threeduring our archaeological surveyof theValleyof the
Muses),
but wasalso
prosperous enough to
found
two small monasteries. Signs that Vrastamites was developing into
a
place
ofprosperity andimportance arethat it
possessed
two
monasteries
and was the
site
of
a
fair.
According to the view I have put forward earlier in this paper, were the whole settlement
system
of early Ottoman Boeotia to have continued to expand to the same population density as
the
handful
of
super-villages, then
the
region would have reached unsustainable overpopulation
and
within
the
following century
or so
should have succumbed
to a
Malthusian
demographic
crash, due to regional crop shortages. This is the scenario sketched by Le Roy Ladurie for
population cycles
in pre-Industrial
Europe.
36
Pre-Industrial populations were fundamentally
supported by agricultural productivity, but before modern agricultural
technology,
fertilizers,
pesticides and advanced animal and crop breeding, intensive mixed f a r m i n g could not be
sustainedin the
long-term, creating characteristicboom-bust cycles
of
demographic
riseand
fall
with wavelengths
of
some300-500years.
Are there
possible
first symptoms of economic stress in the
economic
records of the
super-villages?
Kiel's
discussion of the evidence from the Ottoman tax records suggests that the
pressure felt b yBoeotian villages from th elate 16th centurywas no t ye t
f rom
internal shortages
but fromincreasingtaxlevels,whose imposition seems to mark the point beyond which f ur t h e r
expansion was not possible within the existing socio-economic and technical circumstances .
37
Our
comparative
discussion
would seem
to indicate
that apart from Panaya, which
was
already
35
1997,pers.c om m .
36
Ladurie & Goy1982,cf .
i n t l i f f
1997a.
37
Kiel1997' 327; note that h ispopulat ion f igures are rather
di f fe rent ly
calculated frommine.
14
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EXPLORATIONS INBOEOTIAN POPULATION HISTORY
heading towards local production decline by this time, the other large and especially the
dominant small villages
of
Ottoman Boeotia still
had
considerable growth potential before
sustainability-problemswould have become apparent. External developments within
the
Ottoman
imperial infrastructure, however, intervened before this trajectory could unfold.
L e i d e n University
T h e N e t h e r l a n d s
John
Bintliff
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JOHNBINTLIFF
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