Board of DirectorsWilliam H. Dunlap, Chair

David Alukonis

Eric Herr

Dianne Mercier

James Putnam

Stephen J. Reno

Todd I. Selig

Michael Whitney

Daniel Wolf

Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus

Directors Emeritus Sheila T. Francoeur

Stuart V. Smith, Jr.

Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Kimon S. Zachos

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

Understanding Boundaries

Leadership Seacoast retreat

January 8, 2014

Three trends

Growth

Percent Change in NH Population

8.5%

13.8%

21.5%

24.8%

20.5%

11.4%

6.9%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

Coming and going

Net Migration Into and Out of New Hampshire

-20,000-15,000-10,000

-5,0000

5,00010,00015,00020,000

25,00030,00035,000

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

Demographics has shaped New Hampshire’s destiny over the past four decades. Over that time, tens of thousands more people moved to the state than left. That population growth resulted in higher education levels, increases in average personal income and higher productivity for the state economy. But that trend has reversed itself in recent years (See pink circle. Data for 2012 is not yet available.) What steps can policymakers take in 2013 to address this slow-down in economic and population growth? Or is such growth even desirable?

Aging

New Hampshire began the 20th Century with the majority of its population under the age of 30 and relatively few aged 60 and older. Watch how that shifts through the decades. Look out especially for the bump that arrives in the 1950 Census – the Baby Boom Generation – and see how they dominate the subsequent decades. (When you’ve watched the entire cycle, through 2010, press the down arrow key to continue the presentation.)

Politics

?

The Left The RightHas Anything Changed?

The NH Legislature in 2009

2009 New Hampshire Senate

NH Senate 24

Members

1014

Republicans Democrats

2009 New Hampshire General Court

NH House 400

Members

176224

Republicans Democrats

The Legislature Clearly Changed

2011 New Hampshire Senate

NH Senate 24 Members

19

5

Republicans Democrats

2011 New Hampshire General Court

NH House 400

Members

298

102

Republicans Democrats

And Changed Again

2013 New Hampshire Senate

NH Senate 24 Members

1311

Republicans Democrats

2013 New Hampshire General Court

NH House 400

Members

179221

Republicans Democrats

Voting PatternsChange

1984

2012

What do these swings really mean?

Agenda: What is the Seacoast?

• Hope you walk away with– A better understanding of ‘the Seacoast’– An understanding of the Seacoast as compared to the

rest of the state– A grounding in the major policy issues you will be

asked to take a leadership role on in the future• Justice, Education, Arts and Culture, Economic

Development, Environment, Government

– An understanding of the tension between regional and local issues and policies

15

• Here’s a basic overview of New Hampshire’s population according to the Census data from 2010. Not many surprises here.

• The most densely populated areas are in the state’s southern areas, particularly Rockingham, Hillsborough and Merrimack counties.

• The highest population centers are in and around Manchester and Nashua, with pockets of density scattered in the cities.

• The North Country remains sparsely populated.

• Total state population increased 6.5 percent since 2000, with 1.3 million people now calling New Hampshire home. But let’s look at how that population has shifted over the past decade…..

• 5 School Administrative Units

Pictionary – Draw the Seacoast

• 3 Hospitals

• 1 Mental Health Center

• 1 Community Health Center

• 1 University

• 3 Economic Development Hubs

• 4 Highways

What Is the

Seacoast?

Labor Markets

Hospital Service Areas

Tourist Regions

Watersheds

Housing Markets

Seacoast Tourism Area

Atkinson MiltonBarrington New CastleBrentwood NewfieldsDanville NewingtonDover NewmarketDurham NewtonEast Kingston North HamptonEpping PlaistowExeter PortsmouthFarmington RochesterFremont RollinsfordGreenland RyeHampstead SandownHampton SeabrookHampton Falls SomersworthKensington South HamptonKingston StraffordLee StrathamMadbury

Large Part of the State

Population 2010

27,642

51,092

132,169

104,287

131,181

279,978

118,111

264,833

207,177

Great

Nor

th W

oods

Whit

e M

ount

ains R

egion

Lake

s Reg

ion

Dartm

outh

/Lak

e Sun

apee

Reg

ion

Mon

adno

ck R

egion

Seaco

ast R

egion

Great

er C

onco

rd

Great

er M

anch

este

r

Great

er N

ashu

a

Merrimack Valley Region

2010 People per Square Mile

19.2 28.1

93.0 74.5112.7

378.6

187.6

655.9

783.7

Great

Nor

th W

oods

Whit

e M

ount

ains R

egion

Lake

s Reg

ion

Dartm

outh

/Lak

e Sun

apee

Reg

ion

Mon

adno

ck R

egion

Seaco

ast R

egion

Great

er C

onco

rd

Great

er M

anch

este

r

Great

er N

ashu

a

How crowded is it?

Income?

Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$31,358

$43,106

$52,897

$68,370

$54,781

$65,231

$55,237 $56,329

$66,789

Great NorthWoods

WhiteMountains

Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/LakeSunapeeRegion

MonadnockRegion

SeacoastRegion

GreaterConcord

GreaterManchester

Greater Nashua

Education?

Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher

14.4%

25.6% 26.0%

35.1%

30.5%

35.4%

33.2%

30.4%

38.0%

Great NorthWoods

WhiteMountains

Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/LakeSunapeeRegion

MonadnockRegion

SeacoastRegion

GreaterConcord

GreaterManchester

Greater Nashua

• This map details where the growth and loss in population, town by town, occurred since 2000.

• Some obvious points: the biggest increases came in Hillsborough and Rockingham counties. We can also see the influence that Interstate 93 has on population growth over the past decade.

• Other pockets of large increase: the Conway and Plymouth regions, the Lakes Region and the Upper Valley. We’ll return to those later.

• And while nearly every region saw some increase in population, the declines were focused largely on the North Country.

Education

• But while the overall state population increased, the number of school-aged children fell: a loss of more than 22,000 students, or a 7 percent decline since 2000.

• As this map shows, that drop was spread across the state, with a few towns gaining in school-age population.

• But flip back to the previous map. You’ll see that many of the areas that had the biggest gains in total population saw a decline in their school-aged numbers: portions Hillsborough County and the Rochester area, for instance. How might that trend shape discussions about education spending, both at the state and local level?

• More broadly, policymakers will have to consider what steps to take to build the education system in a state where the student population is declining.

Natives?

Population Born in another state (%)

33.2%

49.8%47.8%

50.8%52.8%

58.1%

43.1%45.4%

55.7%

Great

Nor

th W

oods

Whit

e M

ount

ains R

egion

Lake

s Reg

ion

Dartm

outh

/Lak

e Sun

apee

Reg

ion

Mon

adno

ck R

egion

Seaco

ast R

egion

Great

er C

onco

rd

Great

er M

anch

este

r

Great

er N

ashu

a

Merrimack Valley Region

Transportation: Where do people work?

% of workers commuting to out of state jobs

6.5% 7.1%

4.3%

9.2%

13.6%

20.5%

4.4%

13.9%

26.1%

Great

Nor

th W

oods

Whit

e M

ount

ains R

egion

Lake

s Reg

ion

Dartm

outh

/Lak

e Sun

apee

Reg

ion

Mon

adno

ck R

egion

Seaco

ast R

egion

Great

er C

onco

rd

Great

er M

anch

este

r

Great

er N

ashu

a

Merrimack Valley Region

Coughlin et. Al. “Demographics, Destiny, and Anticipating the Future of the Transportation System.

A Dynamic System

Economic Development

Manufacturing as a share of all Wages (2010)

12.2%

9.1%

13.8% 13.0%

18.6%

12.4%

8.3%

12.6%

27.4%

14.6%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Great

Nor

th W

oods

Whit

e M

ount

ains R

egion

Lake

s Reg

ion

Dartm

outh

/Lak

e Sun

apee

Reg

ion

Mon

adno

ck R

egion

Seaco

ast R

egion

Great

er C

onco

rd

Great

er M

anch

este

r

Great

er N

ashu

a

Total

New H

amps

hire

Government, Healthcare and Manufacturing –

Seacoast RegionCompensation by Major Industry - Seacoast Region

3.6%

12.4%

5.8%

10.4%

1.3%

3.5%

9.6%

1.1%

7.7%

3.0%

5.3%

1.5%

12.2%

0.9%

3.5%

1.9%

14.6%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

Constr

uctio

n

Man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesale

Tra

de

Retail

Tra

de

Trans

porta

tion

and

War

ehou

sing

Info

rmat

ion

Financ

e an

d In

sura

nce

Real E

state

and

Ren

tal a

nd L

easin

g

Profe

ssion

al an

d Tec

hnica

l Ser

vice

Man

agem

ent o

f Com

panie

s/Ent

erpr

ises

Admini

strat

ive a

nd W

aste

Ser

vices

Educa

tiona

l Ser

vices

Health

Car

e an

d Soc

ial A

ssist

ance

Arts, E

nter

tainm

ent,

and

Recre

ation

Accom

mod

ation

and

Foo

d Ser

vices

Other

Ser

vices

Exc

ept P

ublic

Adm

in

Total

Gover

nmen

t

Water is not a local issue

Ground Water Systems Analysis

Studies Looking at Needs/ Demand

Wright and Pierce. 1011. “Drinking Water Infrastructure in New Hampshire:A Capital Investment Needs Analysis”

New Hampshire Hospitals30 Minute Drive Time

Healthcare is local but …. ?

Watch NH’s Population Change

New Hampshire began the 20th Century with the majority of its population under the age of 30 and relatively few aged 60 and older. Watch how that shifts through the decades. Look out especially for the bump that arrives in the 1950 Census – the Baby Boom Generation – and see how they dominate the subsequent decades. (When you’ve watched the entire cycle, through 2010, press the down arrow key to continue the presentation.)

38

• The most recent Census numbers help paint a more detailed portrait of New Hampshire’s demographic patterns. In this map, the darker the shade of the community, the older the median age of its residents. (The statewide median age was 41.1 years in 2010, up from 37.1 in 2000.)

• We see here that New Hampshire can essentially be divided into two regions when it comes to age: an older northern half, and a younger southern half.

• But even in the “younger” half, there is a further subdivision, with the eastern region – between Interstate 93 and the Seacoast -- significantly younger than the western portion.

• How might those divisions shape future policy discussions related to health care, education and public spending?

• (White areas of the map are unincorporated areas for which the Census Bureau did not release information.)

• This map plots the oldest segment of the population – those aged 85 and older – town by town. (Statewide, 1.9 percent of New Hampshire’s population was 85 or older in 2010.)

• The darker communities, those with a higher share of elderly residents, will face additional challenges in caring for that population. And as New Hampshire ages faster than the nation as a whole, these communities will pave the way for the kinds of changes likely facing the rest of the state in coming years.

• An older population requires a different mix of social, health care, housing, transportation and other services. How can New Hampshire best prepare for those needs?

What do Baby Boomers Want? Zoning

Page 41

US Economy Alternative Scenarios

• Stronger Near Term Rebound – Jobs and housing grow more than expected (10% probability)

• Slower Near Term – US business confidence drops due to Washington Gridlock & Europe recession worsens (25% probability)

Source: Moody’s Analytics, August 2013

Rochester-Dover

Index of Total NonFarm Employment

92.0

93.0

94.0

95.0

96.0

97.0

98.0

99.0

100.0

101.0

Jan-

07

May

-07

Sep-0

7

Jan-

08

May

-08

Sep-0

8

Jan-

09

May

-09

Sep-0

9

Jan-

10

May

-10

Sep-1

0

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-1

1

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-1

2

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep-1

3

Dec

200

7 =

100

US NH Rochester-Dover

New Hampshire

Rochester-Dover

United States

Portsmouth

Index of Total NonFarm Employment

93.0

95.0

97.0

99.0

101.0

103.0

105.0

Jan-

07

May

-07

Sep-0

7

Jan-

08

May

-08

Sep-0

8

Jan-

09

May

-09

Sep-0

9

Jan-

10

May

-10

Sep-1

0

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-1

1

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-1

2

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep-1

3

Dec

200

7 =

100

US NH Portsmouth

New Hampshire

Portsmouth

United States

44

In this context, where should we invest?

• Health Care• Education/Workforce• Natural and Cultural Resources• Energy• Fiscal • Infrastructure• Workforce Housing• Regulatory• Business Growth and Retention

Public Policy Indicators Compared to Neighbor and Competitor

States

State and Rank Fiscal

Educations and

Workforce RegulatoryWorkforce

Housing

Cultural and Natural Resources Energy Infrastructure Health

Business Growth and

Retention OverallNew Hampshire 17 14 22 31 17 28 27 20 7 13

Maine 31 36 42 29 12 35 33 49 31 40Massachusetts 37 1 41 41 24 20 35 16 2 14Vermont 35 32 31 32 16 24 43 22 11 29

North Carolina 33 11 14 25 26 13 18 30 27 17South Carolina 28 29 17 15 39 33 12 47 30 31Texas 8 16 28 21 48 41 10 38 23 25Virginia 11 4 20 35 19 27 15 9 29 9

Overall Business Ranking

Human Capital Ranking

Workforce Housing Ranking

NH Excels on Current Climate Indicators

Area Indicator NH RankWFHousing Homeownership rates 2Regulatory Pollution Abatement / $ Value Added 3EdWorkFrc High School grad rate 4Cultural Voter turnout rate 4EdWorkFrc Pct of pop in Science & Engineering workforce 5EdWorkFrc Pct w/Associates+ 6EdWorkFrc Percent of children aged 3-4 in preschool 6Fiscal State Business Tax Climate Index 7Fiscal Public health/welfare spending per person in poverty 7GrowthReten Manufacturing Supercluster Concentration (LQ) 7

But NH Lags on Future Climate Indicators

Area Indicator NH RankFiscal Top marginal corporate tax rate 38Infrastructure Percent of bridges deficient or obsolete 39WFHousing Owner costs more than 30% of Income 43Health Health Care Expenditures per Capita by State of Residence, 2009 43Fiscal State debt per $ Personal Income 45Energy Industrial Electric Prices 46GrowthReten Capital Investment Projects per 100,000 pop 46Regulatory Land Use Restriction 47EdWorkFrc Change in 35-44 y.o share of population, 2000 to 2010 48EdWorkFrc Average student debt 50

A Comment on Regions Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher

14.7%

26.9%28.4%

36.5%

31.1%

35.1% 35.0%

31.4%

37.6%

Great

Nor

th W

oods

Whit

e M

ount

ains R

egion

Lake

s Reg

ion

Dartm

outh

/Lak

e Sun

apee

Reg

ion

Mon

adno

ck R

egion

Seaco

ast R

egion

Great

er C

onco

rd

Great

er M

anch

este

r

Great

er N

ashu

a

52

Looking forward: The ecology of a successful economy

There’s this …

• Human Capital• Financial Capital• Economic Creativity• Business Base• Costs of Business• Infrastructure• Quality of Life

And then … Brad Feld• A Strong Pool of Tech Founders• Local Capital• Killer Events• Access to Great Universities• Motivated ‘Champions’• Local Press, Organizational Tools• Alumni Outreach• Wins• Recycled Capital• Second-Time Entrepreneurs• Attractive to Engineers• Tent-pole local tech companies

52

53

How does this relate to existing initiatives

• Many initiatives designed to deal with perceived long term issues. – Governor Hassan: Innovate NH Jobs – Former Governor Lynch: The green launching pad– New use of unemployment funds – train individuals to build new small

businesses.– Community College System

• Hypertherm and Community College collaboration• The Advanced Manufacturing Partnership (Albany)

– UNH Innovation – UNH, STEM initiatives (NHCF, Business NH coalition)– Granite State Futures – planning generally – housing and transportation.– Stay, Work, Play.

• Question: Are they working? Is there a problem? – Are conditions getting better/worse?– What about regional approaches 

Can you name 5 institutions which help support

informed public policy decisions in the Seacoast

Region?

New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies

Want to learn more?• Online: nhpolicy.org• Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy• Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy• Our blog: policyblognh.org• (603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

Board of DirectorsWilliam H. Dunlap, Chair

David Alukonis

Eric Herr

Dianne Mercier

James Putnam

Stephen J. Reno

Todd I. Selig

Michael Whitney

Daniel Wolf

Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus

Directors Emeritus Sheila T. Francoeur

Stuart V. Smith, Jr.

Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Kimon S. Zachos