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Bo DiczfalusySenior adviser, Nordic Energy Research
•We are the platform for cooperative energy research and policy development under the Nordic Council of Ministers – the intergovernmental body between Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden.
•We fund R&D to promote a sustainable future
•We contribute to policy-making
What we do
Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives (NETP)
• NETP presents a detailed scenario-based analysis of how the Nordic countries can achieve a near carbon neutral energy system by 2050.
• The report is a Nordic edition of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) global Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 (ETP).
Carbon-Neutral Scenario establishes minimum requirements for mitigating CO2 emissions
In October 2018, two years after the publication of the NETP, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued its Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. IPCC stresses that:
•The world needs to limit climate change to 1.5°C to reduce the likelihood of extreme weather events. •Emissions need to be curbed with far more urgency than previously anticipated.
The analysis in NETP 2016 is based on a scenario where Nordic energy-related CO2 emissions fall by 85% by 2050, named the “Carbon Neutral Scenario” (CNS).
Carbon-Neutral Scenario establishes minimum requirements for mitigating CO2 emissions
“The aim of the Nordic countries is to be carbon neutral and to demonstrate leadership in the fight against global warming.”
These were the words of the Nordic prime ministers in their declaration at a summit in Helsinki on 25 January 2019 as part of
active Nordic climate cooperation under the auspices of the Nordic Council of Ministers.
CO2 emissions in NETP scenarios
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
200%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Historical Scenarios
Nordic
4DS
Global
4DS
CNS
CNS
Fig 1.1: Reduction pathways for energy-related CO2 by scenario (indexed to 1990)
This publication evaluates the progress being made towards Nordic Carbon Neutrality and compares progress with the Carbon Neutral Scenario (CNS) in NETP 2016. The NETP publication and this publication deal with energy-related CO2 emissions, which account for just under two-thirds of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Nordic region.
Red – Not on track / Insufficient steps
Yellow – Greater effort is required but critical steps are being addressed
Green – On track / Sufficiently promising efforts and impact
BOOSTING BIOENERGY
ELECTRIFICATION OF HEAT
ENERGY EFFICIENT & SMART BUILDINGS
ENERGY STORAGE & CCS
TRANSFORMING THE POWER SECTOR
ELECTRIFICATION OF TRANSPORT
DECARBONISATION OF INDUSTRY
GREEN MOBILITY
THE BIG PICTURE
Tracking Nordic Clean Energy Progress
25-10-2019 9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2006 2016
Perc
en
tage
of
tota
l
Denmark Finland Iceland Norway Sweden
Share of renewables has increased
All five Nordic countries have seen significant increases in the utilisation of renewable energy.
Compared to primary energy demand, the overall renewable share at Nordic level has risen from 29% in 2006 to 39% in 2016.
Increasing use of bioenergy is the main reason behind the upwards trend.
10%In Nordic RE
share from 2006-2016
→
TRANSFORMING THE POWER SECTOR
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
GW
h
Solar Wind Geothermal
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2005 2010 2015
GW
h
Wind power generation is almost haft-way to the CNS
2030 target of75 TWh
Geothermal is 1 TWhfrom CNS 2050 target of
TRANSFORMING THE POWER SECTOR
Nordic renewable electricity generation (excl. hydro)
Solar already close to CNS 2030 target
of 1 TWh
6 TWh
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2007 2016 2007 2016 2007 2016 2007 2016 2007 2016
Denmark Finland Iceland Norway Sweden
MtC
O2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2007
2016
CNS2030
CO2 emissions (MtCO2) from power and district heatTRANSFORMING THE POWER SECTOR
25%
BOOSTING BIOENERGY
-1 000 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000
2013
2050
Net electricity import
Biomass and waste
Wind, geothermal and solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Natural gas
Oil
Coal
→
in primary energy
consumption
Bioenergy production is increasing and is expected to be the single largest energy carrier in 2050.
BOOSTING BIOENERGY
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
2011 2016
PJ
Other RE
Bio-ethanol/-ETBE
Bio-diesel
RE electricity
Over 100% increase in RE
48
105
Requirements for renewable fuels begin to bite in the Nordics.
Securing sustainable production of biofuels is still a challenge.
> 80%biofuels
ELECTRIFICATION OF TRANSPORT
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Electric Plug-in electric Fuel cell
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
3,5%
4,0%
4,5%
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
Nordic statistics CNS
Light-duty vehicles are on track
Share of electric vehicles in light-duty vehicle stock (CNS) and “zoom in” on the actual Nordic share from 2010-2018 in relation to CNS targets
1%
4.1%
ELECTRIFICATION OF TRANSPORT
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Norway Iceland Sweden Finland Denmark
2018
Over 100.000 electric vehicles were sold in 2018
72,600
28,800
2,600
4,700
5,600
Battery and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles share of new passenger vehicle sales. Piechart: Number of new passenger vehicle sales (BEV and PHEV) in 2018
ELECTRIFICATION OF HEAT
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2008 2014 2015 2016 2017
PJ
Other generation
Bio fuels
Geothermal
Electric boilers and heat pumps
Surplus heat
Waste
Fossil fuels
Nordic district heat generation (PJ) by fuel
Steady decline in use of fossil fuels for heat production
use of fossil fuels for heat
production
34 %
→
DECARBONISATION OF INDUSTRY
Final energy consumption (PJ) in industry
Fig 7.3: Final energy consumption (PJ) in industry
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
PJ
Fossil fuels Biomass Waste Derived heat Electricity
in final energy consumption in industry from 2007-2016
1495 PJ in 2007
1342 PJ in 2017
→
24%
→
In fossil fuels from 2007-2016
KEY MESSAGE: We have most of the tools but there is still a long way to go
With Nordic urban areas expected to grow at twice the rate of previous decades, an opportunity exists to transition to efficient low-carbon systems. Building codes continue to be an important tool for the green transition. However, the low turnover of the building stock means that emphasis should also be given to retrofitting older buildings. Fossil fuels only play a marginal role in today’s Nordic heat supply. Yet efficiency gains may provide multiple benefits for the green transition and hold significant economic potential. Improving building efficiency can unlock biomass to substitute fossil fuels in transport, avoid grid infrastructure investments, facilitate electricity exports, and enable deployment of new technologies such as low-temperature district heating/cooling.
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
2013
CNS 2050
Space heating Space cooling Water heating Lighting Cooking Appliances Other
Final energy consumption in Nordic buildings (PJ)
We need to cut the energy intensity of Nordic buildings by more than half. kWh/m2 in 2016
213
kWh/m2 in 2050
89
Average energy intensity in Nordic buildings
Ålesund, Norway
ENERGY STORAGE & CCS
Carbon Capture and Storage in Industry
24%
→
Nordic industrial emissions in 2050
Total20 Mt CO2
Captured7 Mt CO2
Red – Not on track / Insufficient steps
Yellow – Greater effort is required but critical steps are being addressed
Green – On track / Sufficiently promising efforts and impact
BOOSTING BIOENERGY
ELECTRIFICATION OF HEAT
ENERGY EFFICIENT & SMART BUILDINGS
ENERGY STORAGE & CCS
TRANSFORMING THE POWER SECTOR
ELECTRIFICATION OF TRANSPORT
DECARBONISATION OF INDUSTRY
GREEN MOBILITY
THE BIG PICTURE
Tracking Nordic Clean Energy Progress