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Jun19
Jul19
Aug19
Sep19
Oct19
Nov19
Dec19
Jan20
Feb20
Mar20
Apr20
May20
Jun20
BankingCurrency in circulation (%YoY) 12.7 13.0 12.9 13.6 15.1 12.8 11.9 11.9 11.5 14.5 15.7 18.4 20.6 M3 (%YoY) 10.1 10.6 9.8 9.6 10.6 9.8 10.4 11.2 10.2 8.9 10.7 11.5 12.5 Bank non-food credit growth (%YoY) 11.9 12.1 10.1 8.6 8.8 6.9 6.7 8.0 6.9 6.1 6.7 5.5 6.2 Personal credit (%YoY) 16.6 17.0 15.6 16.6 17.2 16.4 15.9 16.9 17.0 15.0 12.1 10.6 Credit to industry (%YoY) 6.4 6.1 3.9 2.7 3.4 2.4 1.6 2.5 0.7 0.7 1.7 1.7 Credit to services (%YoY) 13.0 15.2 13.3 7.3 6.5 4.8 6.2 8.9 6.9 7.4 11.2 11.2 Deposit growth (%YoY) 10.0 10.6 9.7 9.4 10.3 8.3 9.1 11.1 10.2 7.9 9.9 9.7 11.3 Credit to deposit ratio (%) 77.2 76.3 75.7 75.7 75.8 76.1 76.5 75.8 75.8 76.4 74.9 73.9 73.5 10 year G-Sec yields (%) 6.9 6.4 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.4 6.1 6.1 5.8 5.9 Weighted average lending rate of banks (%) 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.1 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.9 Weighted average deposit rate of banks (%) 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.1 Median MCLR (%) 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.0 7.9 Commercial Paper issuance (%YoY) 2.5 (20.3) (21.4) (17.3) (21.3) (18.2) (16.8) (20.2) (23.2) (28.7) (23.1) (22.9) (25.6)IndustryCement production (%YoY) (1.9) 7.7 (5.1) (1.9) (7.7) 4.3 5.4 5.1 7.8 (24.7) (86.0)Steel production (%YoY) 10.8 8.1 3.8 (1.5) (1.9) (0.1) 4.3 (1.4) 6.3 (13.1) (84.0)IIP (%YoY) 1.2 4.3 (1.4) (4.3) (4.0) 1.8 0.1 2.1 4.5 (16.7) (55.5) Mining (%YoY) 1.5 4.9 0.0 (8.5) (8.0) 1.8 5.7 4.3 10.0 0.0 (27.4) Manufacturing (%YoY) 0.2 4.2 (1.6) (3.9) (2.3) 2.7 (0.7) 1.6 3.2 (20.6) (64.3) Electricity (%YoY) 8.2 4.8 (0.9) (2.6) (12.2) (5.0) (0.1) 3.1 8.1 (6.8) (22.6)Capital goods production (%YoY) (6.9) (7.0) (20.9) (20.3) (22.0) (8.6) (18.0) (4.3) (9.7) (35.6) (92.0)Consumer durable production (%YoY) (10.2) (2.7) (9.1) (9.9) (18.8) (1.6) (5.4) (3.8) (6.4) (33.1) (95.7)Consumer non-durable production (%YoY) 7.1 8.4 3.1 (0.4) (1.8) 1.5 (3.9) (0.3) 0.0 (20.2) (36.1)PMI Manufacturing Index 52.1 52.5 51.4 51.4 50.6 51.2 52.7 55.3 54.5 51.8 27.4 30.8 47.2 PMI Services Index 49.6 53.8 52.4 48.7 49.2 52.7 53.3 55.5 57.5 49.3 5.4 12.6 PMI Composite Index 50.8 53.9 52.6 49.8 49.6 52.7 53.7 56.3 57.6 50.6 7.2 14.8 Rural wage (% YoY) 4.4 5.0 3.5 3.5 2.8 2.6 3.3 4.5 ConsumerMotorvehicle sales (%YoY) (12.3) (18.7) (23.5) (22.4) (12.8) (12.1) (13.1) (13.8) (19.1) (45.0) (98.0) (86.7) Passenger vehicle (% YoY) (17.5) (31.0) (31.6) (23.7) 0.3 (0.8) (1.2) (6.2) (7.6) (51.0) (100.0) (85.0) Commercial vehicle (% YoY) (12.3) (25.7) (38.7) (39.1) (23.3) (15.0) (12.3) (14.0) (32.9) (88.1) (97.8) (90.0) Two wheeler (%YoY) (11.7) (16.8) (22.2) (22.1) (14.4) (14.3) (16.6) (16.1) (19.8) (39.8) (96.2) (85.0)Tractor sales (13.6) (13.1) (16.5) (4.7) (5.0) (13.2) 2.4 4.8 21.3 (49.9) (79.4) (54.7)Petrol consumption (%YoY) 10.8 8.8 8.9 6.2 8.9 9.3 3.2 3.5 11.3 (16.4) (60.4) (35.3)Diesel consumption (%YoY) 1.7 3.3 (0.9) (3.3) (7.0) 9.1 (0.1) (1.8) 6.6 (24.2) (55.6) (29.4)Air traffi c (%YoY) 6.2 1.8 3.9 1.5 4.3 11.5 2.6 2.5 9.0 (32.8) (100.0) (97.7)Foreign tourist arrivals (%YoY) 5.4 1.4 1.6 4.3 6.1 7.8 2.8 1.3 (6.6) (66.4) (100.0) (100.0)FreightMajor port tarffi c (%YoY) (0.5) 3.5 1.2 (0.5) (5.4) (0.3) 6.1 2.5 4.5 (5.1) (21.1) (23.3)Rail freight traffi c (%YoY) 2.0 1.6 (6.1) (6.6) (8.1) 0.9 4.3 3.0 6.5 (13.9) (35.3) (21.3)Foreign TradeExport growth (%YoY) (7.8) 1.7 (6.2) (6.3) (0.6) (0.5) (1.6) (1.7) 2.9 (34.6) (60.3) (36.5)Import growth (%YoY) (8.4) (10.3) (13.4) (12.8) (16.3) (12.7) (8.8) (0.8) 2.5 (28.7) (58.6) (51.0)Capital goods imports (%YoY) (6.4) 1.9 (9.3) 13.1 (0.8) (4.1) (5.2) 9.1 8.3 (36.3) (55.4) (33.9)FiscalCentral Government expenditure (%YoY) (11.1) 23.9 25.9 34.3 9.1 5.5 32.3 (6.4) 5.2 75.0 20.6 (20.7)Indirect tax (%YoY) (0.5) (2.3) 10.1 (3.3) (18.7) 6.5 4.2 14.2 13.1 3.8 (74.9) (42.8)Infl ationCPI (%YoY) 3.2 3.1 3.3 4.0 4.6 5.5 7.4 7.6 6.6 5.9 Core CPI (%YoY) 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.7 4.2 4.1 4.1 WPI (%YoY) 2.0 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 2.6 3.1 2.3 1.0 (3.2)
Negative ( + ) 20 16 22 30 29 22 21 14 13 30 29 23 1Positive ( + ) 25 29 23 15 16 23 24 31 31 14 12 8 7
Negative Watch Neutral Positive Source: BNPP AMC, RBI, Central Statistical Organisation, Government of India, Bloomberg, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
The data mentioned above is as per their date of release and availability as on July 03, 2020.
Macro-Economic DashboardAs per the latest RBI fortnightly data, the banking sector credit
grew at 6.2% YoY for the fortnight ended June 05, 2020. Banks are still parking ~Rs 6trn of excess liquidity in the reverse repo window which
indicates risk aversion in the system. System deposit growth at 11.3% stood higher than the loan growth for the ninth consecutive
month and gap widened to ~500bp. As a result, the system credit
deposit ratio fell to 73.5% from 76.4% in Mar. 20.
Manufacturing PMI in June rose to 47.2 from 30.8 in May and the
trough point of 27.4 in April. Output remains impacted by restrictions and orders from abroad continue to decline. India’s recovery has
fared better that trade dependent countries like Korea and Japan. In the month of May 2020, core
industries output improved compared to April.
Majority of the Indian states are coming out of lockdown,
unlocking is leading to a gradual economic revival as refl ected in power demand, petrol and diesel
consumption, rail, airline and ports traffi c since May and improving
corporate commentary.
Trend in retail volumes is better than wholesale particularly for two-wheelers and passenger vehicles. This could partly be
driven by pent-up demand and lesser impact of lockdown in the rural part of the country. Tractor sales growth has seen positive
traction on account of better cash fl ows in rural markets whereas demand for commercial vehicle
remained weak.
India’s trade defi cit came in at USD 3.2bn in May-20, lowest since
Feb-2009. Exports performed better than imports narrowing the trade defi cit. In the near term we expect
exports to perform a tad better than domestic demand owing to
the slow paced easing of domestic restrictions.
Jun19
Jul19
Aug19
Sep19
Oct19
Nov19
Dec19
Jan20
Feb20
Mar20
Apr20
May20
Jun20
BankingCurrency in circulation (%YoY) 12.7 13.0 12.9 13.6 15.1 12.8 11.9 11.9 11.5 14.5 15 7 18.4 20.6 M3 (%YoY) 10.1 10.6 9.8 9.6 10.6 9.8 10.4 11.2 10.2 8.9 12 5Bank non-food credit growth (%YoY) 11.9 12.1 10.1 8.6 8.8 6.9 6.7 8.0 6.9 6.1 6.7 Personal credit (%YoY) 16.6 17.0 15.6 16.6 17.2 16.4 15.9 16.9 17.0 15.0 12.1 10.6 Credit to industry (%YoY) 6.4 6.1 3.9 2.7 3.4 2.4 1.6 2.5 0.7 0.7 1.7 1.7 CreCreditdit toto seservirvicesces (%(%YoYYoY)) 13.0 15.2 13.3 7.3 6.5 4.8 6.2 8.9 6.9 7.4 11.2 11.2Deposit growth (%YoY) 10.0 10.6 9.7 9.4 10.3 8.3 9.1 11.1 10.2 7.9 9.9 9.7 11.3 Credit to deposit ratio (%) 77.2 76.3 75.7 75.7 75.8 76.1 76.5 75.8 75.8 76.4 74.9 73 910 year G-Sec yields (%) 6.9 6.4 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.4 6.1 Weighted average lending rate of banks (%) 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.1 10.2 10.1Weighted average deposit rate of banks (%) 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6 6.4 6.1 Median MCLR (%) 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.0 7.9 Commercial Paper issuance (%YoY) 2.5 (20.3) (21.4) (17.3) (21.3) (18.2) (16.8) (20.2) (23.2) (28.7) (23.1) (22.9) (25.6IndustryCement production (%YoY) (1.9) 7.7 (5 .9) (7.7) 4.3 5.4 5.1 7.8 (24.7) (86.0)Steel production (%YoY) 10.8 8 (1.5) (1.9) (0.1) 4.3 (1.4) 6.3 (13.1) (84.0)IIP (%YoY) 1 2 (4.3) (4.0) 1.8 0.1 2.1 4.5 (16.7) (55.5) Mining (%YoY (8 0) 1.8 5.7 4.3 10.0 0.0 (27.4) Manufacturing (%YoY) (0.7) 1.6 3.2 (20.6) (64.3) Electricity (%YoY) 3 1 8.1 (6.8) (22.6)Capital goods production (%YoY) 20.9) (20.3) (22.0) (8.6) (18.0) ( 9.7) (35.6) (92.0)Consumer durable production (9.1) (9.9) (18.8) (1.6) (5.4) (3.8) (6.4) (33.1) (95.7)Consumer non-durable productio %YoY) 3.1 (0.4) (1.8) 1.5 (3.9) (0.3) 0.0 (20.2) (36.1)PMI Manufacturing Inde .5 51.4 51.4 50.6 51.2 52.7 55.3 54.5 51.8 27.4 30.8 47.2 PMI Services Index 3.8 52.4 48.7 49.2 52.7 53.3 55.5 57.5 49.3 5.4 12.6 PMI Composite Inde 53.9 52.6 49.8 49.6 52.7 53.7 56.3 57.6 50.6 7.2 14.8 Rural wage (% Yo 5.0 3.5 3.5 2.8 2.6 3.3 4.5 ConsumerMotorvehicle sales (%YoY) (12.3 (18.7) (23.5) (22.4) (12.8) (12.1) (13.1) (13.8) (19.1) (45.0) (98.0) (86.7) Passenger vehicle (% YoY) (17.5) (31.0) (31.6) (23.7) 0.3 (0.8) (1.2) (6.2) (7.6) (51.0) (100.0) (85.0) Commercial vehicle (% YoY) (12.3) (25.7) (38.7) (39.1) (23.3) (15.0) (12.3) (14.0) (32.9) (88.1) (97.8) (90.0) Two wheeler (%YoY) (11.7) (16.8) (22.2) (22.1) (14.4) (14.3) (16.6) (16.1) (19.8) (39.8) (96.2) (85.0)Tractor sales (13.6) (13.1) (16.5) (4.7) (5.0) (13.2) 2.4 4.8 21.3 (49.9) (79.4) (54.7)Petrol consumption (%YoY) 10.8 8.8 8.9 6.2 8.9 9.3 3.2 3.5 11.3 (16.4) (60.4) (35.3)Diesel consumption (%YoY) 1.7 3.3 (0.9) (3.3) (7.0) 9.1 (0.1) (1.8) 6.6 (24.2) (55.6) (29.4)Air traffi c (%YoY) 6.2 1.8 3.9 1.5 4.3 11.5 2.6 2.5 9.0 (32.8) (100.0) (97.7)Foreign tourist arrivals (%YoY) 5.4 1.4 1.6 4.3 6.1 7.8 2.8 1.3 (6.6) (66.4) (100.0) (100.0)FreightMajor port tarffi c (%YoY) (0.5) 3.5 1.2 (0.5) (5.4) (0.3) 6.1 2.5 4.5 (5.1) (21.1) (23.3)Rail freight traffi c (%YoY) 2.0 1.6 (6.1) (6.6) (8.1) 0.9 4.3 3.0 6.5 (13.9) (35.3) (21.3)Foreign E (7.8) 1.7 (6.2) (6.3) (0.6) (0.5) (1.6) (1.7) 2.9 (34.6) (60.3) (36.5)
(8.4) (10.3) (13.4) (12.8) (16.3) (12.7) (8.8) (0.8) 2.5 (28.7) (58.6) (51.0)Capita oods i rts YoY) (6.4) 1.9 (9.3) 13.1 (0.8) (4.1) (5.2) 9.1 8.3 (36.3) (55.4) (33.9)FiscalCentral Government expenditure (%YoY) (11.1) 23.9 25.9 34.3 9.1 5.5 32 4) 2 75.0 20.6 (20.7)Indirect tax (%Y (0.5) (2.3) 10.1 (3.3) (18.7) 6.5 13.1 3.8 (74.9) (42.8)Infl ationCPI (%YoY) 3.2 3.1 3.3 4 6.6 5.9 Core CPI (%YoY) 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.0 3 3.7 4.2 4.1 4.1 WPI (%YoY) 2.0 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.6 2.6 3.1 2.3 1.0 (3.2)
Negative ( + ) 20 16 22 30 29 22 21 14 13 30 29 23 1Positive ( + ) 25 29 23 15 16 23 24 31 31 14 12 8 7
Negative Watch Neutral Positive Source: BNPP AMC, RBI, Central Statistical Organisation, Government of India, Bloomberg, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
The data mentioned above is as per their date of release and availability as on July 03, 2020.
As per the latest RBI fortnightly data, the banking sector credit
grew at 6.2% YoY for the fortnight ended June 05, 2020. Banks are still parking ~Rs 6trn of excess liquidity
e reverse repo window which isk aversion in the
posit grow
tive 500bp. edit from
%
Manufacturing PMI in June rose to 47.2 from 30.8 in May and the
trough point of 27.4 in April. Output remains impacted by restrictions and orders from abroad continue to decline. India’s recovery has
fared better that trade dependent countries like Korea and Japan. In the month of May 2020, core
industries output improved compared to April.
Majority of the Indian states are coming out of lockdown,
unlocking is leading to a gradual economic revival as refl ected in power demand, petrol and diesel
consumption, rail, airline and ports traffi c since May and improving
corporate commentary.
Trend in retail volumes is better than wholesale particularly for two-wheelers and passenger vehicles. This could partly be
driven by pent-up demand and lesser impact of lockdown in the rural part of the country. Tractor sales growth has seen positive
traction on account of better cash fl ows in rural markets whereas demand for commercial vehicle
remained weak.
India’s trade defi cit came in at USD 3.2bn in May-20, lowest since
Feb-2009. Exports performed better than imports narrowing the trade defi cit. In the near term we expect
exports to perform a tad better than domestic demand owing to
the slow paced easing of domestic restrictions.
4% in
Manufacturing PMin
4 ibbr
radeaayt
6.5 6.5 6 4 6 18 3
utive 50
14.5 10.7
7 5.0 6
11
ImCapital
lern%YoY
scocofi
n tpoei
T
a
YoY)
54
sal .3)er 5)
(20.9) (20.3) (22 0) (8 6) (18.0) (4.3) (9.7)4)
%YoY)%YoY)
1.9(1(
3 7 4 2.2 0 6
3 4.0 3
(.3)
.2 1
(
5.6)
73.9 73.51 6.1 5.8 5.9
10.1 10.0 9.96.5 6 5
parkinin the reverse
indicates risk avsystem. System deposit growth at 11.3% stood higher than the loan growth for the ninth consecutive
month and gap widened to ~5As a result, the system cre
deposit ratio fell to 73.5% f76.4% in Mar. 20.
MI in Junen May anin Aprilby restroad crecovde da any 2i
14.5 15.710.7 11.5 12.5
5.5 6.2
saonsons
fic (%touris
ort tarffi cight traffi c (%YoY)
eign TradeExport growth (%YoY)Import growth (%YoY)
pital goods imports (%YoY)
nment expenditure (%YooY) (0
(5.1) (1.98.1 3.8 (1
1.2 4.3 (1.4) (%YoY) 1.5 4.9 0.0 (8.5) (8.0)
0.2 4.2 (1.6) (3.9) (2.3) 2.7 (0.7)8.2 4.8 (0.9) (2.6) (12.2) (5.0) (0.1) 3.1
Y) (6.9) (7.0) (20.9) ( 0) (4 3) (9.7)on (%YoY) (10.2) (2.7)
production (%YoY) 7.1 8.4dex 52.1 52.5
49.6 53dex 50.8 5
YoY) 4.4
e sa 3)er
(9 36.3)
32.3 (6.4) 5.24.2 14.2
4 0 4.6 5.5 7.4 7.63.5 3.5
.3 0.2
Disclaimers: The material contained herein has been obtained from publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable, but BNP Paribas Asset Management India Private Limited (BNPPAMIPL) makes no representation that it is accurate or complete. BNPPAMIPL has no obligation to tell the recipient when opinions or information given herein change. It has been prepared without regard to the individual fi nancial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. This information is meant for general reading purpose only and is not meant to serve as a professional guide for the readers. Except for the historical information contained herein, statements in this publication, which contain words or phrases such as ‘will’, ‘would’, etc., and similar expressions or variations of such expressions may constitute ‘forward-looking statements’. These forward looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the forwardlooking statements. BNPPAMIPL undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements to refl ect events or circumstances after the date thereof. The words like believe/ belief are independent perception of the Fund Manager and do not construe as opinion or advise. This information is not intended to be an offer to sell or a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any fi nancial product or instrument. The information should not be construed as an investment advice and investors are requested to consult their investment advisor and arrive at an informed investment decision before making any investments. The sector(s) mentioned in this document do not constitute any recommendation of the same and BNP Paribas Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these sector(s). The Trustee, AMC, Mutual Fund, their directors, offi cers or their employees shall not be liable in any way for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages arising out of the information contained in this document.
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