Bioversity Dixon Li 2008 AprSLP Addis Biofuels Livestock Final

8/13/2019 Bioversity Dixon Li 2008 AprSLP Addis Biofuels Livestock Final

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Feed, food and fuel:

competition and potential impacts in small

crop-livestock-energy farming systems

A Study comm issioned by the System-wide Livestock Program

Presented by John Dixon, Xiaoyun L i

on behalf of the task team

System -wide Livestock Program Workshop

Addis, Ethiopia 29 Apr i l, 2008


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An act ive 9-center task team

CIMMYT: John Dixon, Xiaoyun Li, Judit Szonyi

IFPRI: Siwa Msangi, Betina Dimaranan;

IWMI: Amede Tilahun, Deborah Bossio;

ICRISAT: Belum VS Reddy;

IITA: Robert Abaidoo;

ILRI: Mario Herrero;

IRRI: Jagadish Timsina;

CIP: Charles Crissman, Victor Mares, Robert Quiroz, Carlos

Leon-Velarde;

CIAT: Hernan Ceballos, Michael Peters, Douglas White,

Bernardo Ospina, Reinhardt Howeler


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Contents

Background

Study objectives, framework

Preliminary results for feedback

Policy and research priorities


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Backg round : renewable energy

investment, 2006


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Background: Biofuel product ion

United

States

Brazil China India Total

36% 33% 7.5% 3.7% 80.2%

Bioethanol production


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Projected US maize use for b io-ethano l(doubling 2006-2016)


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The study

Objectives

International market responses

Resource and environment dynamics

Potential impacts on crop-livestock-

energy systems



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Analyze the present situation of biofuel production in

relation to agriculture in developing countries

Identify and profile typical local crop-livestock-energy

farming systems (CLEFS)

Estimate international market responses

Assess the resource and environmental dynamics

Assess the biofuel impact on small crop-livestock systems

and households

Identify policy implications and research priorities

Object ives


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Schemat ic pathways from bio -fuel to

l ivestoc k and l ivelihood

Bio-fuels

Household

livelihood

Crops

Livestock

Market

Environment


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FAO dietary energy sou rces %


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Crop -l ivestock farm ing systems

Resources, market access


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Poverty


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Ruminant and poultry density


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Crop production cf livestock


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Human consumption: cereal cf animal products


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Prel im inary resu l ts


Resource and environmental dynamics

Potential impacts: crop-livestock-energy

systems and household livelihoods



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World crop food and livestock products demand

Crop food Wheat Rice Maize Cassava Sugarcane SorghumYear 15 30 15 30 15 30 15 30 15 30 15 30(Million ton) 453 532 381 415 117 133 147 177 144 174 28 36Livestock

ProductBeef Pork Lamb Poultry Eggs Milk

(Million ton) 76 99 114 131 17 24 93 123 60 69 345 414


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Projected demand for feedstock commodities for biofuel at 2020

(Thousand ton)

Note: *Rest of the world.

Crop Region Baseline Business asusual

AggressiveCassava ROW* 660 6,842 13,684

Europe 97 1,086 2,173ROW 2,021 20,511 41,023

MaizeUSA 35,000 130,000 260,000Brazil 16 153 306Europe 1,563 14,572 29,144ROW 530 4,211 8,423

Oil

SeedsUSA 354 3,017 6,034Brazil 834 9,014 18,029ROW 163 1,797 3,595SugarUSA 265 3,450 6,900Europe 1,242 10,703 21,407WheatROW 205 2,342 4,685


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world prices of key feedstock crops

Note: *Rest of the world.010

20304050607080

Cassava Maize Oil seeds Sugar WheatBiofuel expansion Drastic biofuel expansion

PriceChange

s(%)

Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections

Increase is over the 2020 baseline levels


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livestock commodity price under biofuel scenarios,By 2020

Note: *Rest of the world. 0500

1,000

1,500

2,0002,500

3,000

3,500

Beef

Pork

Lamb

Poult

ryEg

gs Milk

US$perton

2000 Business as usual Aggressive


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Resource and environment dynam ics

Biofuels impacts on land, water andgreenhouse gases are the three main

environment concerns with large scale

development of biofuels.

If all national policies and plans on biofuels aresuccessfully implemented, 30 million additional

hectares of crop land will be needed along with

180 km3of additional irrigation water

withdrawals. Biofuel impacts on carbon savings and GHGs

emission depend on how they are produced.


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Some detai l : biofuels land and

water use

Total cropped area

for biofuels

Total crop ET for

biofuels

total irrigation

withdrawals for biofuels

2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030

USA, Canada 4.60% 9.00% 5.10% 11.00% 4.10% 20.00%

EU 1.30% 28.00% 1.50% 17.00% 0.00% 1.00%

China 1.10% 4.00% 1.50% 4.00% 2.20% 7.00%

India 0.20% 1.00% 0.50% 3.00% 1.20% 5.00%

S-Africa n.a. n.a. 2.80% 12.00% 9.80% 30.00%

Brazil 5.00% 7.00% 10.70% 14.00% 3.50% 8.00%

Indonesia 0.10% 0.00% 0.30% 1.00% 3.50% 7.00%World 0.90% 3.00% 1.40% 3.00% 1.10% 4.00%


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Potent ial crop effects

Under the different scenarios of biofuel expansion, crop

areas and production practices are expected to change,

including grain and residue prices, the consumption

basket, crop substitutions, land and water use, cultivars

selection and field management.

While maize and sugarcane dominate bioethanol

feedstock use at present, some diversification of

bioethanol (and biodiesel) feedstocks is expected by 2030.

Moreover, while there are strong pressures for

intensification because of the strong demand for cereals,water and nutrient use efficiency is expected to rise as

water and fertilizer prices rise relative to grain prices


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Some detai l : po tent ia l crop effects

An example maize mixed crop-livestock systemin SSAFirst generation Second generation

ImpactsBusiness-as-usual Aggressive Business-as-usual Aggressive

Maize pric e Increase Great increase Less increase impact for maize stover

Maize grain consump tion

fo r food Decline Dramatic decline Even Even

for feed No change No change Even Even

for biofuel feedstock increase Dramatic increase Even Even

Maize stover use Fodder, soil fertilizer Fodder, soil fertilizer Competition for biofuel Competition for biofuel

Crop subst i tu t ions Other crops to maize Dramatic convertion No change Use marginal land

Crop system change May change Change No change No change

Land and water

prov is ionTense More tense Alleviate Alleviate

Cult ivars selection

Yield, nutrition,

drought and disease

tolerance

High yield and

nutrition, drought

and disease

tolerance

High biomass, nutrition,

drought and disease

tolerance

High biomass, nutrition,

drought and disease

tolerance

Field managementfertilizer use, and

residue management

fertilizer use, and

residue management

fertilizer use, and

residue management

fertilizer use, and

residue management


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Pressu re po ints on crop-l ivestoc k farm ing sys tems

Crop competition

Feed and fodder biofuel pressure pointExample

countries maize grain roots or stems Crop residues pasture

Farming system

2015 2030 2015 2030 2015 2030 2015 2030

maize mixed crop-livestock Kenya Major Medium x x Minor Major x x

wheat based crop- livestock Turkey Medium Minor x x Minor Minor x x

sorghum-based crop-livestock India Minor Minor Major Major Minor Minor x x

cassava/ crop-livestock Nigeria x x Major Minor Major Major x x

sugarcane/ crop-livestock Brazil x x Minor Minor Minor Major x Major

oil palm/ crop-livestock Indonesia x x x x x x x x

Cereal-livestock Brazil x x x x x Major x Major

livestock dominant Argentina x x x x x Major x Major

rice-based crop-livestock China Major Minor x x Minor Major x x

rice-based crop-livestock India Major Minor x x Minor Major x x


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Impacts on livestock

By 2015, without crop yield growth an increase in grain prices

leads to a reduction in feedgrains -- with greater impacts in

more the more intensive crop-livestock systems (e.g., dairy)

By 2030, with widespread second generation biofuel production,the focus of competition shifts to biomassand impacts depend

on the cost of harvesting biomass for bioethanol, i.e., economics

of bioethanol vs economics of ruminant production. The

aggregate effect is likely to be reduction in biomass availability

for ruminant fodder.

In densely populated systems which lack alternative fodder

resources, a reduction in ruminant production is expected or a

(further) shift to intensive grain based feeding systems.

In pasture-based systems may be less affect unless competition

arises from cropping

Potent ia l impacts on crop-l ivestoc k farming sy stems


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Potent ial impacts on crop -l ivestock systems

Intensification, diversification

Farming system Example

countries

Land resource

constraints

Market

access

Intensi-

fication

Diversi-

fication

maize mixed crop-livestock Kenya 0.5 8.4 2 3

wheat based crop- livestock Turkey 0.5 2.9 Na Na

sorghum-based crop-livestock India 0.7 9.8 2.5 2

cassava/ crop-livestock Nigeria 0.4 7.0 3.5 2

sugarcane/ crop-livestock Brazil 0.5 2.5 2 4

oil palm/ crop-livestock Indonesia 0.9 15.6 Na NaCereal-livestock Brazil 0.3 4.1 0 1

livestock dominant Argentina 0.2 3.3 3 2

rice-based crop-livestock China 0.5 3.2 1 4

rice-based crop-livestock India 0.4 2.3 2 3


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Pol icy impl icat ions and

research prio r i t ies

Policy implications

Research priorities


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Pol icy impl icat ions

Foster widespread use of second generation bioethanol

production

Reduce, amend, or even eliminate biofuels trade barriers

Avoid aggressive biofuel expansion through subsidies which

runs ahead of the availability of proven sustainable

feedstock and biofuel production technologies

Target rate of expansion of biofuels to the particular

agricultural resource base and crop-livestock-energy

systems as well as available technologies of each country

Encourage small and medium size feedstock farmers and

also small scale biofuel technologies


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Research prior i t ies

Life cycle analyses (LCA)

Biofuel value chain and local markets study

Strategic assessment and targeting

Early warning system in hotspots

Integrated crop-livestock-energy models

Management of crop residues

Local innovation and learning

Sense-act-observe-adjust


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Bioversity Dixon Li 2008 AprSLP Addis Biofuels Livestock Final