Biofuels Future Transportation Fuels Study - Data Architecture Supply & Infrastructure Task Group Level 1 Level 2 Level 4 Data Architecture - High Level

Biofuels Future Transportation Fuels Study - Data Architecture Supply & Infrastructure Task Group Level 1 Level 2 Level 4 Data Architecture - High Level Overview Meetings ResearchAdministration RosterScopeWorkplan Level 3 Report

Biofuels Future Transportation Fuels Study - Data Architecture Supply & Infrastructure Task Group Level 1 Level 2 Base CaseFeedstock Level 4 Data Architecture - High Level Overview Distribution / Logistics ConversionAlgae Investment Needs Future States Policy EIA Model Projections Current State History Availability Supply Chain Biochemical Thermochemical Starch / Sugar Lignocellulosic TriglyceridesLignocellulosic Level 5 Level 6 Feedstock Production Infrastructure LCA Infrastructure Costs Conversion BiochemicalThermochemical Level 3 Level 7 LCA ResearchAdministrationReport Integration Feedstock Distribution

Biofuels Future Transportation Fuels Study - Data Architecture Supply & Infrastructure Task Group Level 1 Level 2 Level 4 Data Architecture - High Level Overview Delta CasesChapter Sections ResearchAdministration Level 3 Report Vision Inputs

RFS II-Biofuels

Company ConfidentialPage 5 Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2)

Where do these come from in the Vision base case? Pyrolysis? gasification?

Technology state-of-the-art:Review of existing and emerging technologies for the large scale production of biofuelsand identification of promising innovations for developing countries Philippe Girard, Abigal Fallot, Fabien DauriacForest Department of CIRAD Where will the fuels come from?

Dr. Dan E. Arvizu Director,Fulfilling the Promise of Renewable Energy: A Look at the FutureEnergy 2050: The Future of Renewable Energy June 21, 2005, National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Technology platforms

David Martin Alonso, Jesse Q. Bond and James A. Dumesic, Catalytic conversion of biomass to biofuels Green Chem., 2010, 12, 14931513

Ragettli, M. 2007. Cost outlook for the production of biofuels. Diploma thesis, Environmental Sciences, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich

Schematic pathways to convert sugars and polyols to biofuel through production of monofunctional intermediates David Martin Alonso, Jesse Q. Bond and James A. Dumesic, Catalytic conversion of biomass to biofuels Green Chem., 2010, 12, 14931513

Economics and yields

Lew Fulton, Principal Administrator, Energy Technology Policy Division BIOFUEL COSTS AND MARKET IMPACTS IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR ENERGY PRICES & TAXES, 1st Quarter 2005, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

Thomas D. Foust, Andy Aden, Abhijit Dutta, Steven Phillips. An economic and environmental comparison of a biochemical and a thermochemical lignocellulosic ethanol conversion processes; Cellulose (2009) 16:547565

Anex RP et al. Techno-economic comparison of biomass-to-transportation fuels via pyrolysis, gasification, and biochemical pathways. Fuel (2010), doi:10.1016/j.fuel.2010.07.015 Biochem vs pyrolysis

Anex RP et al. Techno-economic comparison of biomass-to-transportation fuels via pyrolysis, gasification, and biochemical pathways. Fuel (2010), doi:10.1016/j.fuel.2010.07.015

Gl,Timur. AN ENERGY-ECONOMIC SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE FUELS FOR TRANSPORT, DISS. ETH NO. 17888, University of Stuttgart, Germany

Gl,Timur. AN ENERGY-ECONOMIC SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE FUELS FOR TRANSPORT, DISS. ETH NO. 17888, University of Stuttgart, Germany 1GJ= 948,000 BTU= 8.24 gallons gasoline

Gl,Timur. AN ENERGY-ECONOMIC SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE FUELS FOR TRANSPORT, DISS. ETH NO. 17888, University of Stuttgart, Germany LC = lignocellulose

a maximum share of oil, oil products and natural gas imports of 10% of domestic consumption of these energy carriers from the year 2050 onwards a maximum share of oil, oil products and natural gas imports of 30% of domestic consumption of these energy carriers from the year 2050 onwards Gl,Timur. AN ENERGY-ECONOMIC SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE FUELS FOR TRANSPORT, DISS. ETH NO. 17888, University of Stuttgart, Germany

Ragettli, M. 2007. Cost outlook for the production of biofuels. Diploma thesis, Environmental Sciences, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich

Technology state-of-the-art:Review of existing and emerging technologies for the large scale production of biofuelsand identification of promising innovations for developing countries Philippe Girard, Abigal Fallot, Fabien DauriacForest Department of CIRAD

RFS baseline implications

Mark W. Rosegrant, Siwa Msangi.IFPRI, Promises and Challenges of Biofuels for the Poor, AAAS Annual Meeting Session on Biofuels Ablaze Chicago, USA, February 15, 2009 Scenario 1 based on the actual biofuel plans of countries and biofuel expansion for identified high-potential countries. Under this scenario prices increase ceteris paribus by 18 percent for oilseeds and 26 percent for corn by 2020. Scenario 2 based on a more drastic expansion of biofuels, assuming a doubling of the production expansion rate over Scenario 1 levels. Under this drastic biofuel expansion scenario (Scenario 2), the price of corn rises by 72 percent and of oilseeds by 44 percent.

Mark W. Rosegrant, Siwa Msangi.IFPRI, Promises and Challenges of Biofuels for the Poor, AAAS Annual Meeting Session on Biofuels Ablaze Chicago, USA, February 15, 2009

We assume in the Reference Scenario that the biofuel mandates in China and the European Union will be met after a lag of a few years but that biofuels in the United States in 2030 will attain only about 40% of the very ambitious target in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act. World Energy Outlook 2008 - GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

Nils-Olof Nylund, Pivi Aakko-Saksa & Kai Sipil Status and outlook for biofuels, other alternative fuels and new vehicles, VTT TIEDOTTEITA. RESEARCH NOTES 2426, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland,

The WEO 2008 report states that assume in the Reference Scenario that the biofuel mandates in China and the European Union will be met after a lag of a few years but that biofuels in the United States in 2030 will attain only about 40 percent of the very ambitious target in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act. G. Fischer World Food and Agriculture to 2030/50 How do climate change and bioenergy alter the long-term outlook for food, agriculture and resource availability? FAO Expert Meeting on How to Feed the World in 205024-26 June 2009

Scenario results confirm that, with and without CO2 fertilization, the impacts of climate change on crop yields and production could become severe in the second half of this century. If expansion of biofuel production continues to rely mainly on agricultural crops and when expansion follows the pace projected by the IEA in 2008, or achieves levels implied by the mandates and targets set in many countries, this additional non-food use of crops will have a significant impact on the worldfood system. While biofuels could have an especially large impact in the period up to 2030, the aggregate impact on the food system is likely to reduce over time. The opposite is to be expected for climate change impacts. For the range of scenarios analyzed in this assessment, the combined impact of climate change and biofuel expansion on aggregate crop prices is in the range of a 10- 45 percent increase. Decrease of cerealconsumption typically falls within 35-100 million tons initially, increasing to a range of 60-150 million tons by 2050. In terms of cultivated land, an additional use in the range of 20-50 million hectares by 2030 and of 25-60 million hectares in 2050 can be expected. G. Fischer World Food and Agriculture to 2030/50 How do climate change and bioenergy alter the long-term outlook for food, agriculture and resource availability? FAO Expert Meeting on How to Feed the World in 205024-26 June 2009

Biofuels Feedstock- Pretreatment Distillation + Physical Match biomass to pretreatment Biofuel (non algae) Technology Drivers Research priority to drive deployment (1 of 2) Optimize feedstock to local conditions Genetic engineering The future will be populated by multiple feedstocks, varying region by region; it will be necessary to understand which crops are best suited to local conditions and to focus on their development. Due to the lack of experience with many of the feedstocks, potential to increase yields through the development of sound agronomic practices The application of GM principles could result in increased yield, suitability of crops and tolerance to reduced water usage New feedstocks will require new processes and equipment to improved harvesting and collection to minimise the effort and energy Many types of pretreatment each with its own sets of pros and cons. Overall aim is to manage the water, temperature, energy, chemical, water and capex Need to match biomass feedstocks with the most appropriate pretreatment technologies. Effectiveness of pretreatment will impact enzyme use and fermentation need to optimise end to end process. Continued improvement in traditional separation processes Advances in established other separation processes- gas stripping/absorption, adsorption, extraction Novel technologies- polymeric, ceramic, Medium Low barriers High barriers Priority of resolution to drive biofuels deployment Harvesting and Logistics Agronomy Improve yields while managing water and energy use Conversion Separation Preparation of cellulosic feedstock Increase concentration, reduce energy in process See next slide Other established alternatives Membranes Optimise pretreatment w/ conversion process Chemical and physicochemical Biological

Conversion Enzymes dosage and cost Biofuel (non algae) Technology Drivers Research priority to drive deployment (2 of 2) Biochemical Hybrid- gasification and microbes Thermochemical Cellulosic ethanol Butanol - ABE Isobutanol Isoprenoids 1st generation ethanol Pyrolysis Hydrocarbons- eg. APR Hydrotreated Renewable Diesel Hydrothermal Liquefaction Gasification Medium Low barriers High barriers Priority of resolution to drive biofuels deployment Yield, economics and efficiency of water and energy will continue to improve. Need to reduce dosage and optimise w/ pretreatment and fermentation Feedstock availability and deconstruction needs to continue to improve Improvements to established process to improve current high cost and low yields Still demonstration no commercial volumes available Still demonstration process has extra hydotreating step Improvements to established process to improve stability Still demonstration no commercial volumes available Commercial plants coming onstream will be available soon- issue is the oilseed feedstock Some commercial plants- issue is the water use Established process- need to reduce costs Still demonstration no commercial volumes available

NGV Vehicle Infrastructure Engine Tanks and Pumps LNG Tanks CNG Tanks Refueling Stations CNG Compressor Stations OEM Integration LNG Production Peak Shavers, LNG Terminals Small-scale Liquefaction NGV Economy Technology Drivers Research priority to drive deployment Engine Efficiency, Performance, Cost Engine Types/Sizes LNG Storage and Dispensing Specific NGV designs Increase value through better engine efficiency, performance and options and lower cost Engines can take advantage of NG properties to become more efficient. Direct injection compression ignition for HD and HHP are a major step forward. Engines for HD and HHP mobile applications are limited at present. LD and MD spark- ignition engines are generally availability. Design of purpose-built NGV vehicles which can optimize operational performance and cost vs. adapted vehicles. Conversions are not optimal but may be important in supporting fleet roll-out. Cryogenic storage tanks can reach 50% of the incremental cost for an NGV. Change of materials may reduce cost and allow conformable shape for improved volume capacity and longer hold-time. LNG pumps essential for direct injection pressures are costly and lack high reliability. Tank and station venting must be managed.NGV CNG tanks widespread. Raising capacity & lowering cost will help range. Better utilization of existing LNG production. Small-scale liquefaction plants will allow wider, economic LNG expansion. Compressor cost reduction and permitting standards would help expansion LNG station cost reduction needed. Fuel storage temperature/pressure incompatible with compression-ignition DI engines. Fuel dispensing and W&M metering need improvement. Medium Low High Vehicle Conversions Priority of resolution to drive HD NGV deployment LNG Pumps

E. Heinrich, et al. Modelling and Analysis : Biosynfuel production via biosyncrude gasification, Biofuels, Bioprod. Bioref. #:28041 (2009)

From locally produced PY oil E. Heinrich, et al. Modelling and Analysis : Biosynfuel production via biosyncrude gasification, Biofuels, Bioprod. Bioref. #:28041 (2009)

Energy security sources 1. Gasoline and diesel from.difficult. oil resources (incl. unconventional oil) 2.Synthetic fuels from natural gas or coal 3.2nd generation biofuels from biomass 4.1st generation biofuels from biomass. Nils-Olof Nylund, Pivi Aakko-Saksa & Kai Sipil Status and outlook for biofuels, other alternative fuels and new vehicles, VTT TIEDOTTEITA. RESEARCH NOTES 2426, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland,

The renewable energy options technically feasible for transport lowering climate change could be: Biomass based liquid fuels Biogas Renewable electricity Hydrogen produced with renewable electricity. Nils-Olof Nylund, Pivi Aakko-Saksa & Kai Sipil Status and outlook for biofuels, other alternative fuels and new vehicles, VTT TIEDOTTEITA. RESEARCH NOTES 2426, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland,

The future options for non-oil or non-fossil transport are listed as follows: 1. Synthetic biomass based fuels (and lignocellulosic ethanol) 2. Electric vehicles,.plug in hybrids., hydrogen fuel cell vehicles etc. 3. Vehicles capable of using biogas and ethanol (CNG vehicles, FFV vehicles). Nils-Olof Nylund, Pivi Aakko-Saksa & Kai Sipil Status and outlook for biofuels, other alternative fuels and new vehicles, VTT TIEDOTTEITA. RESEARCH NOTES 2426, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland,

Recommendations regarding securing energy supply in road transport: 1. give emphasis to energy savings and improving efficiency of the whole transport system 2. favor fuel options, which give the best cost/benefit ratio, fulfill end-use quality requirements and reduce local pollution 3.develop flexibility on the refinery supply side: avoid too many options on the end use side 4.limit the use of fuel alternatives requiring new infrastructure and new vehicles to applications which provide the best cost/benefit ratio (e.g., natural gas for captive urban fleets) 5.fuel quality requirements change over time, be prepared for the fuel requirements of future engine concepts 6.as for biofuels, focus on high quality 2nd generation fuels providing maximum potential and substitution with minimum costs and greenhouse gas emissions 7.note that synthetic fuels give fuel flexibility/multi-source supply. Nils-Olof Nylund, Pivi Aakko-Saksa & Kai Sipil Status and outlook for biofuels, other alternative fuels and new vehicles, VTT TIEDOTTEITA. RESEARCH NOTES 2426, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland,

E. Iakovou *, A. Karagiannidis, D. Vlachos, A. Toka, A. Malamakis, Waste biomass-to-energy supply chain management: A critical synthesis, Waste Management 30 (2010) 18601870

World Energy Outlook 2008 - GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

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Biofuels Future Transportation Fuels Study - Data Architecture Supply & Infrastructure Task Group Level 1 Level 2 Level 4 Data Architecture - High Level